eburacum
Papo-furado
- Joined
- Aug 26, 2005
- Messages
- 5,802
I agree with that; CO2 is a relatively small contributor to global climate, and several other effects are responsible for the wild swings we have seen in the Quaternary era. Humans have been lucky - for the last three thousand years or so, we have had a reasonably stable climate. This has not always been the case, even during the period during which modern Humans have existed on Earth.
But anthropogenic CO2 is significant, in a small way, and as an entirely new factor it could become highly significant. We are adrift on a vast ocean of climate, and our boat is tossed this way and that by the random forces of astronomical and geological effects. But we have hoisted a sail- CO2 emissions- and this sail will consistently blow us in one direction only, towards a warmer world. We might be affected by other, larger forcings in the meantime- but that little human-derived effect is consistently blowing us one way.
When I'm being optimistic, I imagine that this anthropgenic effect will fizzle out before we are badly affected- after all, fossil fuels are going to run out soon, aren't they?
Yes, fossil fuels might run out sooner, rather than later, and we won't have to worry about CO2 any more. But the main reason that fossil fuels might run out rapidly is that developing and newly developed countries such as China and India are likely to use them up quite rapidly in the next few decades, releasing a pulse of CO2 into the atmosphere - this would be the equivalent of hoisting several more sails on the little boat I described earlier.
But anthropogenic CO2 is significant, in a small way, and as an entirely new factor it could become highly significant. We are adrift on a vast ocean of climate, and our boat is tossed this way and that by the random forces of astronomical and geological effects. But we have hoisted a sail- CO2 emissions- and this sail will consistently blow us in one direction only, towards a warmer world. We might be affected by other, larger forcings in the meantime- but that little human-derived effect is consistently blowing us one way.
When I'm being optimistic, I imagine that this anthropgenic effect will fizzle out before we are badly affected- after all, fossil fuels are going to run out soon, aren't they?
Yes, fossil fuels might run out sooner, rather than later, and we won't have to worry about CO2 any more. But the main reason that fossil fuels might run out rapidly is that developing and newly developed countries such as China and India are likely to use them up quite rapidly in the next few decades, releasing a pulse of CO2 into the atmosphere - this would be the equivalent of hoisting several more sails on the little boat I described earlier.