Thanks, but to save us time having to trawl through ancient threads, perhaps you can give us your own latest up-to-the- minute May 2018 cutting edge theory as to what exactly happened?..
We'll probably never know exactly what happened once the Dyatlov party concluded they were in a sufficient amount of trouble to take action. There are too many possible variations / permutations that can be derived from the available evidence.
The part of the story that can be addressed with the most confidence is the situation into which they put themselves and the factors preceding that situation that contributed to dooming them. The key elements include:
- Early in the expedition Dyatlov had been advised there were 2 ways to approach Ortoten from the south. One was to cross the pass, establish a cache (in the valley where they died), then ascend to Ortoten through the foothills. This was the original plan. The other option was to follow the summer path used by horseback trekkers above the treeline. It's not clear that taking the summer path negated the notion of establishing their cache in the valley into which they eventually fled.
- Their diary entries indicate Dyatlov was leaning toward shifting to using the summer path and staying above the treeline.
- They were fatigued after a difficult trudge to ascend the pass (as illustrated in one of the photos above).
- They'd turned back the previous day after initially attempting the ascent and finding the weather conditions too daunting to proceed.
- As of the fatal night they'd gone 2 days without using their stove, building a fire, or having a hot meal.
- They'd changed their plan after being turned back on their first ascent attempt, to the extent of building their cache south of the pass instead of north of the pass. This change may have occurred the morning after turning back from the first ascent attempt. As recently as the penultimate night Zina's journal entries indicated they were still intending to build their cache on the far (northern) side of the pass.
- Upon gaining the crest of the pass, they found themselves in heavy weather. Some claim they drifted westward atop the pass (toward the eventual tent site) because they were lost. I don't buy this interpretation. They had maps, and they'd plotted the route and reviewed it among themselves. They had every reason to know they simply had to cross over and ski downhill to end up in the originally intended valley location.
- Given the difficult weather conditions, one must wonder why Dyatlov kept the party up on the pass and pitched camp there. One possible reason is because it was late in the day (approaching 1700) and the light was failing. It's also been suggested that the party (or at least Dyatlov) had finally decided to follow the higher summer route, and camping at elevation was consistent with staying above the treeline. It's even been suggested that they stayed above the treeline as a self-test of their winter camping prowess (they were, after all, expecting to receive the highest - Class III - certification for the trip).
- The incursion of Arctic air on the fatal night dropped the temperature far below anything they'd yet encountered or probably expected. There's no reason to doubt the weather conditions were at least as fearsome as the ones that drove the similar party off Chistop the same night.
- With or without any abrupt motivating event (snow slip; lights in the sky; infrasound from the high winds, etc.) I believe they realized sometime during the night that their exposed position was dangerously untenable. They may or may not have been suffering the early effects of hypothermia by the time they abandoned the tent.
Past this ramp-up phase, it's anybody's guess what happened when. They may or may not have left the tent site and descended into the valley as a single group. They may have sent an advance party to scout the forest and signal (with a flashlight) to cue the rest of the group to come join them.
All 3 locations where the bodies were eventually found indicated proactive attempts to survive. Dyatlov and 2 others succumbed while attempting to get back uphill to the tent. The two found at 'The Cedar' were co-located with a fire they apparently couldn't keep burning. The 4 found at the 'den' / 'ravine' site were co-located with a burrow that had been dug out and its floor lined with branches (not simply paradoxical burrowing behavior).
The way I see it, here are the bottom lines:
- They'd obviously over-stretched their abilities and strength getting to the fatal site in the first place.
- It's hard to consider their decision to camp up on the mountain's flank reasonable, particularly since a few minutes' additional skiing would have placed them down into the forested area into which they'd eventually flee.
- They were camped in a riskily over-exposed location, even for the weather conditions they'd already encountered atop the pass.
- The weather conditions got much worse during the night - if nothing else, because the temperature plummeted precipitously.
- They attempted to retreat into the valley below and simply survive the night, but all were eventually overwhelmed by circumstances (and, at the 'ravine' site, by accident(s)).
- The autopsy results indicated they'd all died within circa 8 hours of sharing their final meal - most probably in the wee hours between midnight and dawn.
- The exact timeline and storyline for how their evacuation, trials, and deaths played out will probably never be known.
- Regardless of the suggestive and even lurid glosses and spins applied by later writers, there's nothing substantive to indicate this was anything other than a tragic accident or misadventure involving the Dyatlov party alone.