Not As Environmentally Friendly As Promised

[Mythopoeika]

Yes that’s the plan - used petrol cars will still be around for some time though surely..

With a massive drop-off in sales, what will that do to the car industry? Also, what will it do to the petrol and diesel industry?
The producers of ICE cars may call it a day and concentrate on making electric cars. Over time, the knowledge of producing and designing ICE cars may disappear. OK, the patents will be there, but the skills and knowledge of the people will go.
To keep petrochemical companies going, the cost of fuel may have to rise. And there will be less spent on investment in oil rigs and distribution.

 

[Coal]

That's for burning it though.
In a fuel cell it is used as a reactant to create electrickery.
Simple explanation of a fuel cell here.
And 20 minutes of her explaining why "Hydrogen useless" is probably overkill sponsored by the petro-chemicals companies (I'm guessing).

There's a lot of weasel words around the topic...mostly about 'efficiency', but you still need way more hydrogen by volume in a fuel cell car that you do petrol for the same range. So statements like this:

"In a typical fuel cell vehicle, you can expect to use around 0.8 kilograms (kg) of hydrogen per 100 kilometres (km). To put this in perspective, around one kg of hydrogen equals nearly five litres of petrol."

...rather neglects to say that's 5 litres of petrol vs. 11.30 litres of liquid hydrogen (at boiling point, -252.87°C at 1 atm).

In respect of hydrogen as a direct fuel for internal combustion, Sabine Hossenfelder's augments are accurate.

Ethanol fuel cells might be a rather better bet, at least that's got a reasonable energy density.

 

[Cochise]

Well they are going to stop making ICE cars so eventually people will be forced.

They aren't. They maybe will stop making pure ICE's - although I bet Russia doesn't - but there will still be hybrids, and thus petrol will still be available, as will diesel because we are decades off viable pure electric HGV's - if such a thing is ever possible - it may need a bigger battery pack than its payload.

Basic vehicles like 2CV's and the first 30 years or so of Land Rover production are almost indestructible - only if they ban the production of spare parts will they stop.

 

[Trevp666]

The countries that have promised to ban the sales of petrol/diesel cars by a certain year are not the only market for car manufacturers.
Other countries that have made no such promises will just become the target market for these vehicles instead.
The car companies will instead tailor their products towards the markets they have, so expect to see a glut of new EV models for the UK (and similar markets) while places like India continue to grow as a market and also benefit from the continuing drop in the cost of fossil fuels as demand from 'western' markets dwindles.

 

[Stormkhan]

Thing is, it doesn't really matter how hard it is to reduce damage to the environment or cost of energy (which, after all, will be A THING) but at least attempts are made.

 

[Trevp666]

The governments of Italy and Germany are going against an EU directive on phasing out fossil fuelled vehicles to protect their own car manufacturers.

"Germany and Italy have thrown a planned European Union ban on new petrol and diesel cars into disarray as they seek exemptions to protect their powerful car industries.
EU diplomats have been forced to delay a key vote on the proposals, which would outlaw the manufacture of combustion engine cars across the bloc from 2035, following a last-minute revolt by the two countries."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/03/ftse-100-markets-live-news-jeremy-hunt-bill-support/

 

[Coal]

Thing is, it doesn't really matter how hard it is to reduce damage to the environment or cost of energy (which, after all, will be A THING) but at least attempts are made.

Why no just place a ban on any new or imported cars with engines over 1600cc (petrol) and 1800cc (diesel), mandate minimum economy figures for combined cycle/ long distance (say 40/60mpg petrol, 50/70mpg diesel), impose mandatory government overseen testing of the latter (no removing seats and alternators for testing) and introduce reliability and maintainability standards to make it cost effective to keep cars for 100k miles or use. Provide strong incentives to keep cars running.

Mobility still allowed, social mobility still possible, big drop in emissions. There.

 

[Kondoru]

Too sensible.

 

[Coal]

There's a lot of weasel words around the topic...mostly about 'efficiency', but you still need way more hydrogen by volume in a fuel cell car that you do petrol for the same range. So statements like this:

"In a typical fuel cell vehicle, you can expect to use around 0.8 kilograms (kg) of hydrogen per 100 kilometres (km). To put this in perspective, around one kg of hydrogen equals nearly five litres of petrol."

...rather neglects to say that's 5 litres of petrol vs. 11.30 litres of liquid hydrogen (at boiling point, -252.87°C at 1 atm).

In respect of hydrogen as a direct fuel for internal combustion, Sabine Hossenfelder's augments are accurate.

Ethanol fuel cells might be a rather better bet, at least that's got a reasonable energy density.

In an idle moment this weak (there's only so much closed-loop transient transfer functions one can tolerate) I had a look at hydrogen fuel cell cars. A current production car in this category is the Hyundai 2013 ix35 FCEV.

It has an alleged range of 600 km (or about 375 miles), kerb weight:1846 kg

In contrast my small 1.8d has a kerb weight of 1340 kg (mostly due to a very solid body construction) and a range of 600 miles.

One might infer that the fuel cell drive train is heavy, there's a good 1,100lb of extra mass in there. That's about 4 obese adults.

But still, perhaps smaller vehicles are not so disproportionally heavy.

 

[Mythopoeika]

In an idle moment this weak (there's only so much closed-loop transient transfer functions one can tolerate) I had a look at hydrogen fuel cell cars. A current production car in this category is the Hyundai 2013 ix35 FCEV.

It has an alleged range of 600 km (or about 375 miles), kerb weight:1846 kg

In contrast my small 1.8d has a kerb weight of 1340 kg (mostly due to a very solid body construction) and a range of 600 miles.

One might infer that the fuel cell drive train is heavy, there's a good 1,100lb of extra mass in there. That's about 4 obese adults.

But still, perhaps smaller vehicles are not so disproportionally heavy.

What is the weight of a similar battery car? They're generally really heavy.

 

[Tunn11]

Why no just place a ban on any new or imported cars with engines over 1600cc (petrol) and 1800cc (diesel), mandate minimum economy figures for combined cycle/ long distance (say 40/60mpg petrol, 50/70mpg diesel), impose mandatory government overseen testing of the latter (no removing seats and alternators for testing) and introduce reliability and maintainability standards to make it cost effective to keep cars for 100k miles or use. Provide strong incentives to keep cars running.

Mobility still allowed, social mobility still possible, big drop in emissions. There.

I'd guess the car companies would lie, as VW and others did over emissions, or they would comply when new but gradually erode with age prompting the need for new vehicles. They may get caught out eventually but not until they'd turned a profit. They'd just claim they had been "misused"* which made them fail after 25k or whatever rather than the 100k.

*Driven

 

[maximus otter]

"The UK needs to find more than 100,000 new plumbers, electricians and carpenters every year for the next three decades if the nation’s historic properties are to be preserved and upgraded, according to a report.

105,000 new workers, who would focus solely on improving the sustainability credentials of buildings, will be needed every year for the next three decades if the UK is to meet its 2050 net-zero target. Almost a third of those needed are plumbers and electricians."

Précis here: https://www.timworstall.com/2023/03/how-damn-expensive-is-net-zero-going-to-be/

Comment from the blogger above, on whose site I found this:

"So net zero is going to require 10% of everything then? Because the labour of 10% of the workforce is 10% of everything, close enough at least. The claim here is that 10% of GDP, each year for 3 decades, must be devoted merely to lagging buildings. That’s about £6 trillion."

Original (paywalled Times) article here: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/thousands-more-tradesmen-needed-to-upgrade-old-houses-0xnpfkxpq

maximus otter

 

[Mythopoeika]

"The UK needs to find more than 100,000 new plumbers, electricians and carpenters every year for the next three decades if the nation’s historic properties are to be preserved and upgraded, according to a report.

105,000 new workers, who would focus solely on improving the sustainability credentials of buildings, will be needed every year for the next three decades if the UK is to meet its 2050 net-zero target. Almost a third of those needed are plumbers and electricians."

Précis here: https://www.timworstall.com/2023/03/how-damn-expensive-is-net-zero-going-to-be/

Comment from the blogger above, on whose site I found this:

"So net zero is going to require 10% of everything then? Because the labour of 10% of the workforce is 10% of everything, close enough at least. The claim here is that 10% of GDP, each year for 3 decades, must be devoted merely to lagging buildings. That’s about £6 trillion."

Original (paywalled Times) article here: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/thousands-more-tradesmen-needed-to-upgrade-old-houses-0xnpfkxpq

maximus otter

It does seem evident that nobody in power has done the sums on this.

 

[ramonmercado]

Tesla goes down across Europe leaving some drivers unable to charge cars​

https://metro.co.uk/2023/02/14/tesl...18282364/?ito=facebook|social|metroukfacebook

Now the steering wheels are falling off.

US car safety regulators have opened an investigation into Tesla’s Model Y after getting two complaints that the steering wheels can come off while being driven.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says the probe covers an estimated 120,000 vehicles from the 2023 model.

The agency says in both cases the Model Ys were delivered to customers with a missing bolt that holds the wheel to the steering column.

A friction fit held the steering wheels on, but they separated when force was exerted while the cars were being driven.

The agency says in documents posted on its website on Wednesday that both incidents happened while the vehicles had low mileage on them.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/world/arid-41088226.html

 

[Trevp666]

Who pulls on their steering wheel anyways?

 

[MorningAngel]

Now the steering wheels are falling off.

US car safety regulators have opened an investigation into Tesla’s Model Y after getting two complaints that the steering wheels can come off while being driven.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says the probe covers an estimated 120,000 vehicles from the 2023 model.

The agency says in both cases the Model Ys were delivered to customers with a missing bolt that holds the wheel to the steering column.

A friction fit held the steering wheels on, but they separated when force was exerted while the cars were being driven.

The agency says in documents posted on its website on Wednesday that both incidents happened while the vehicles had low mileage on them.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/world/arid-41088226.html

That’s not idea.

There was an issue with some Nissan micras a few years back. They notified me and checked mine. I was very impressed with their recall. Some companies just bury their head in the sand even if bonnets are popping all over the place.

 

[Trevp666]

Some car recalls are truly worrying. Like when Vauxhall Zafiras had to be recalled because they were proving to be rather flammable.

 

[Cochise]

It does seem evident that nobody in power has done the sums on this.

Can anyone in power in the UK actually DO sums? Proper sums? Long division, equations, that sort of stuff?

Do they actually understand the models they are presented with?

I suspect the answer is mainly no. I'm not one to talk, mind, I stopped understanding math at calculus. Which back then was third year O level stuff. But I'm not running the country.

And actually you don't really need calculus for statistics / data analysis. In which I got an A level - it was called 'numerical analysis' back then, but it's all basically the same thing.

 

[Trevp666]

Can anyone in power in the UK actually DO sums? Proper sums? Long division, equations, that sort of stuff?

No of course not! They 'get someone in' for that stuff mate. Politicians are there to make decisions, not actually do any 'leg work'.
That's why they have 'experts' for stuff like research, science and numbers, and armed forces for to go do bang bang stuff.
And I'm talking about all politicians, off all parties, so as not to fall foul of the obvious.

 

[Cochise]

No of course not! They 'get someone in' for that stuff mate. Politicians are there to make decisions, not actually do any 'leg work'.
That's why they have 'experts' for stuff like research, science and numbers, and armed forces for to go do bang bang stuff.
And I'm talking about all politicians, off all parties, so as not to fall foul of the obvious.

Agreed. My criticism is a general one of the innumeracy of people in power across the spectrum and I don't just mean politicians.

I'm not saying everyone needs a degree in higher mathematics, but if you are to make sensible judgements - because you are in charge and it IS your responsibility to do so - you do need to know enough to understand what you are being told. And the courage to pull people up if they try and baffle you with unnecessarily long words. An algorithm is only an equation with an extra letter.

 

[Floyd]

'Light pollution' has reduced dramatically in the UK in the past 5 or 6 years too.
This is due to local councils and The Highways Agency moving from 'Sodium' bulbs (the orange ones) to new 'LED' type of bulbs which have almost all of their light directed downwards.
The sodium bulbs used to emit their orange light in a much greater arc, and also (IIRC) at a different, longer, wavelength to standard lightbulbs. They were originally chosen due to their light being better able to cover a larger area and be visible in less clear conditions, such as mist and rain/spray.
These modern LED lights I find are rather hopeless as they do not give off a sufficiently bright light, and also are less powerful anyway. The existing streetlights were originally installed the correct distance apart for the sodium bulbs used at the time, and as such we now have pools of unlit street between the lights.

But, 'short story', less light pollution now.

Also of course, many councils now turn off a large proportion of street lights from 11pm/12.00am until 5/6am.

 

[Floyd]

Can anyone in power in the UK actually DO sums? Proper sums? Long division, equations, that sort of stuff?

MrsF can, but she was a right swot at school.

 

[Cochise]

MrsF can, but she was a right swot at school.

So was I up to a point Then I discovered alcohol and girls, in that order. :-;

 

[Mythopoeika]

Agreed. My criticism is a general one of the innumeracy of people in power across the spectrum and I don't just mean politicians.

I'm not saying everyone needs a degree in higher mathematics, but if you are to make sensible judgements - because you are in charge and it IS your responsibility to do so - you do need to know enough to understand what you are being told. And the courage to pull people up if they try and baffle you with unnecessarily long words. An algorithm is only an equation with an extra letter.

We expect those people to be smart enough to be in full possession of the facts and to understand them.
This is not unreasonable as an expectation.

But, like you, I am appalled by the sheer ignorance displayed by the people who make decisions that affect all of us.

 

[eburacum]

No of course not! They 'get someone in' for that stuff mate. Politicians are there to make decisions, not actually do any 'leg work'.
That's why they have 'experts' for stuff like research, science and numbers, and armed forces for to go do bang bang stuff.
And I'm talking about all politicians, off all parties, so as not to fall foul of the obvious.

This is exactly correct.
My daughter works as a mathematical modeller for the Government, and the results she calculates are taken away and used by the policy wonks. Most of this is covered by the Official Secrets Act, so I can't say any more, and she never tells me anything interesting anyway.

 

[Cochise]

This is exactly correct.
My daughter works as a mathematical modeller for the Government, and the results she calculates are taken away and used by the policy wonks. Most of this is covered by the Official Secrets Act, so I can't say any more, and she never tells me anything interesting anyway.

Yes, obviously. But if the people in charge don't understand the modellers then it all goes tits up. and who needs 'policy wonks'. Probably even more of a blight on humanity than lawyers.

 

[Floyd]

This is exactly correct.
My daughter works as a mathematical modeller for the Government, and the results she calculates are taken away and used by the policy wonks. Most of this is covered by the Official Secrets Act, so I can't say any more, and she never tells me anything interesting anyway.

But the official secrets act applies to her, not you and as she can't (shouldn't) tell you anything, how could you say anything about it?

 

[eburacum]

I can't. But my experience is that the modellers and number-crunchers are civil servants, and provide the data without bias or favour. What the politicians do with it is another matter.

 

[Cochise]

I can't. But my experience is that the modellers and number-crunchers are civil servants, and provide the data without bias or favour. What the politicians do with it is another matter.

I used to be one in the early part of my career. But you can't produce good statistics if someone is playing fast and loose with the source data, just as one point where problems creep in. If you are instructed to use that data all you can do is add caveats - which probably never get read.

 

[Tunn11]

I can't. But my experience is that the modellers and number-crunchers are civil servants, and provide the data without bias or favour. What the politicians do with it is another matter.

Where I worked it was trust. The politicians, and many senior managers didn't trust the figures or information they were given. There may have been some justification in some areas but not in all. This often led to consultants being brought in at extra expense.

In our case we wrote a report explaining how the service levels could not be maintained on the allocated budget (fairly obvious as the budget had been predicated on a number of cuts which hadn't been made) Suggestions were made to bring things in line. The report was ignored and consultants were brought in who produced a report that we didn't see for seven months when a new caretaker manager was put in charge. We took great delight in pointing out the four minor differences between the two reports.

The level of mathematical ability was poor at all levels. Trying to recruit staff who could tell me what 10% of 200 was, was nigh on impossible. A colleague and I gained an almost supernatural reputation for mathematical competence with the treasurer's because we could work out percentages and trends. We had maths O levels that's all, I regard my mathematical ability as feeble so I was actually quite shocked at all this. This was all pre Excel, etc. I hope things have changed.

I'm guessing that some of the trust issues are based on a fundamental lack of understanding the maths.