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U.S. Sizing Up Iran?

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Another gulf war is not what we want right now. Aaargh.
 
Why was only HMS Montrose deployed to the region?
There's no way a sole warship could protect shipping in such a vast expanse of water.
It's almost as if we were tempting the Iranian regime to seize one of our merchant ships.
We wouldn't do that would we....?

Yith's prediction seems realistic though. I suspect air strikes against the Iranian regime are imminent.
 
Has anyone really thought through the consequences of some dip-shit actually attacking Iran ?
 
Has anyone really thought through the consequences of some dip-shit actually attacking Iran ?

Don't know, but perhaps a more pertinent question is: has anyone really thought through the consequences of some dip-shit allowing islamo-fascists to get away with international piracy?
 
I think the problems of fixing a bit of international piracy, if it even exists, will be far fewer than fixing the resultant war that will occur after an attack.
Don't forget who Iran's main allies are.

As we have a system (flightracker) that can show the position of every civilian aircraft in real time I find it ridiculous that the same thing isn't being done with shipping.

That, along with clearly illustrated territorial waters on the display, will show the world exactly where all the ships are.

Never forget that the 'leader of the free world' is a congenital liar.

why should we believe a single report from him ?

INT21.
 
IAs we have a system (flightracker) that can show the position of every civilian aircraft in real time I find it ridiculous that the same thing isn't being done with shipping.

That, along with clearly illustrated territorial waters on the display, will show the world exactly where all the ships are.
A system like that is available.
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-12.0/centery:25.0/zoom:4
I think the free version shows out of date info, deliberately. For real-time info, you may need to subscribe.
But I found the Stena Impero on that website.
 
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"Don't forget who Iran's main allies are."

There's no clear answer to that.
Obviously there's Assad's regime and Venezuela, but Putin seems to be distancing himself from Iran and the other Gulf states and indeed China seem pretty well ambivalent.
I suspect most of the world would breathe a sigh of relief if the Iranian fascist theocracy were toppled and some sort of democracy replaced it.
 
Oh, dear.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...-tanker-seized-iran-escalation-gulf-tensions/

Things are probably going to start exploding in a relatively short space of time. I now think it's more likely than not that we'll see air-strikes against Iran by the end of the month, probably U.S. conducted with symbolic British logistic support (a few take-offs from Cyprus?). HMS Duncan was in the Bosphrous a few days ago; the silver lining here could be a chance to see a Type-45 in action...

Edit: she's currently off Crete. Too remote to make an effective demonstration.


Ah this snippet from your link answers the question I was asking in my post:
Northern Marine, a Clyde-based subsidiary of the ship's Swedish owner Stena AB, confirmed that a “hostile action” had preceded the vessel's change of course on Friday afternoon.


Sky News is now saying a Libyan tanker has also been seized..
 
"Don't forget who Iran's main allies are."

There's no clear answer to that.
Obviously there's Assad's regime and Venezuela, but Putin seems to be distancing himself from Iran and the other Gulf states and indeed China seem pretty well ambivalent.
I suspect most of the world would breathe a sigh of relief if the Iranian fascist theocracy were toppled and some sort of democracy replaced it.

Likewise, why should the UK allow itself to be dragged into yet another US adventure ?

Wasn't the Iraq fiasco warning enough.
 
2 UK tankers seized by Iran now. They are really trying hard to provoke a war. Using the fact that we don't have a PM to push us about.
Looks like the next PM will have a war on his plate.
 
Oh, dear.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...-tanker-seized-iran-escalation-gulf-tensions/

Things are probably going to start exploding in a relatively short space of time. I now think it's more likely than not that we'll see air-strikes against Iran by the end of the month, probably U.S. conducted with symbolic British logistic support (a few take-offs from Cyprus?). HMS Duncan was in the Bosphrous a few days ago; the silver lining here could be a chance to see a Type-45 in action...

Edit: she's currently off Crete. Too remote to make an effective demonstration.

Well if you seize Iranian tankers don't be surprised if they do the same to yours.

Hopefully it won't come to war.
 
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I suspect most of the world would breathe a sigh of relief if the Iranian fascist theocracy were toppled and some sort of democracy replaced it.

I want to see it overthrown but I fear that any war will stir up Iranian nationalism and make the regime stronger.
 
Well if you seize Iranian tankers don't be surprised if they do the dame to yours.

Hopefully it won't come to war.

But Ramon, there's no moral or tit-for-tat equivalence when the British merchant ship was engaged in legitimate international trade, whereas the Iranian tanker was breaking sanctions imposed by the EU against the Assad regime.
 
But Ramon, there's no moral or tit-for-tat equivalence when the British merchant ship was engaged in legitimate international trade, whereas the Iranian tanker was breaking sanctions imposed by the EU against the Assad regime.

It was a provocative act though given the fact that a blind eye (rightly or wrongly) had been turned to this trade for years. Why seize an Iranian ship when tension is so high?

I accept that the British ship was just going about it's business.
 
The US is relying on it's geographic isolation. Maybe this time that may prove a mistake.
 
A pertinent article by Iranian Dissident Yassamine Mather.

Recent events have demonstrated yet again why ‘regime change from above’ will only produce chaos, destruction and death, says Yassamine Mather

Two demonstrations in Tehran this week have once again shown the way to deal with the threat of war against Iran. On May 26 students at Allameh Tabataba’i university organised protests with the slogans, “No to war” , “No to sanctions” and “No to oppressors” - the last referring to the rulers of the Islamic Republic of Iran. And, apart from the placards against war, the students also carried photos of those arrested on previous protests, as well as labour and student activists arrested in the last few years.

In their leaflet the students wrote: “Recent discourse has concentrated on the threat of war - some Iranian exiles encouraging war, while others are demanding an increase in sanctions.” I assume this is a reference to those who have been promised US support by the Trump administration in any post-‘regime change from above’ administration, and have actually gone on air promoting war. One such idiot told a TV audience last week that the casualties of war will probably be no more than the number of people killed in traffic accidents in Iran - in other words, legitimising the devastation caused by military intervention. A number of Iranian ‘human rights activists’ in the US and Europe have also called for increased sanctions - to the horror of people inside the country.

The student leaflet also opposed sanctions, from which “it is the poorer classes who suffer”. However, that did not mean that the students advocated support for the Iranian regime. They state:

When we say no to war and no to sanctions, we don’t mean support for the ‘security of the state’. What we are referring to is support for the people - the true victims of these harsh conditions. When we say, ‘No to war, no to sanctions’, we are not just referring to foreign oppressors: we are also addressing our own rulers. We are telling them, ‘Don’t gamble on the lives of ordinary people!’ Using the excuse of possible foreign intervention, they have silenced opponents.

The students made very clear what they thought of ‘left’ apologists for either the Tehran regime or US-led military intervention:

Protesting against internal injustice is an integral part of being anti-war. There are those who tell us that, under the current circumstances, ‘You should support the government’. We reject becoming such apologists. Our slogan has two parts and neither part can have any meaning without the other.

At the same time we emphasise we have nothing but contempt for the exiled opposition, who call for more sanctions, who encourage the warmongers. In our eyes there is no difference between them and the current rulers - they have no legitimacy. Our hatred of the status quo does not mean we will ever forget the excuses they have chosen to utter in support of their anti-human activities.

But we also say, ‘No to the internal oppressors’. Today 90% of the Iranian population is working under contracts, in temporary jobs . Corruption and systematic discrimination has become institutionalised. Poverty and unemployment have increased dramatically. More than 19 million Iranians are shanty-town dwellers, deprived of the most basic facilities. Under such circumstances reducing the threat to our security to that coming from outside is shameful. The current appalling situation is not just caused by sanctions - although no doubt sanctions have played an important role in worsening the plight of the majority, that is only part of the story. ...

https://weeklyworker.co.uk/worker/1253/only-the-iranian-people/
 
Don't know what to make of this but it's certainly conspiracy related.

Security sources say MI6 and GCHQ are now investigating whether Russian and Iranian intelligence sent fake signals to the Stena Impero. Sources said that investigators will look into whether there is a technological footprint or whether western spy planes in the area picked up any suspicious activity, according to The Sunday Mirror. A western security source said: “Russia has the technology to spoof GPS and may have helped Iran in this venture as it was extremely brazen.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/worl...ritish-ship-vladamir-putin-russia-tehran-iran
 
Don't know what to make of this but it's certainly conspiracy related.

Security sources say MI6 and GCHQ are now investigating whether Russian and Iranian intelligence sent fake signals to the Stena Impero. Sources said that investigators will look into whether there is a technological footprint or whether western spy planes in the area picked up any suspicious activity, according to The Sunday Mirror. A western security source said: “Russia has the technology to spoof GPS and may have helped Iran in this venture as it was extremely brazen.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/worl...ritish-ship-vladamir-putin-russia-tehran-iran

Interesting that the EU’s hugely expensive duplicate GPS system Galileo went tits-up over the same time frame.

maximus otter
 
Now there's this:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-49074162
Iran says it arrested CIA spies and sentenced some to death
Iran says it has arrested 17 spies who it says were working for the CIA, and sentenced some of them to death.
The intelligence ministry said the suspects had been collecting information in the nuclear, military and other sectors.
US President Donald Trump has dismissed the Iranian allegations, saying they are "totally false".
Washington and Tehran are at loggerheads over Iran's nuclear programme and tensions have grown.
 
Interesting, perhaps Trump really wants a deal as long as his name is on it.

Last month, amid a rapid-fire escalation in tensions between Washington and Tehran, the Iranian Foreign Minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, received an unexpected invitation—to meet President Donald Trump in the Oval Office.

The diplomatic overture was made by Senator Rand Paul, the Kentucky Republican, during a meeting with Zarif in New York on July 15th, according to American and Iranian sources and a well-informed diplomat. With President Trump’s blessing, Paul had been working on the idea for several weeks, in consultation with the White House and the State Department. An intermediary had reached out to the Iranians on Paul’s behalf three weeks before Zarif was due in New York for meetings at the United Nations. On July 14th, the day before leaving for New York, Paul had a discussion about Iran with the President, while playing a round at the Trump golf course in Sterling, Virginia.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/news...de103&cndid=38161694&esrc=&utm_term=TNY_Daily
 
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