According to the Earhart on Saipan blog:
http://earhartonsaipan.blogspot.com
... Earhart, Noonan, and the Electra 10E were seized by the Japanese after crash-landing at or around Mili Atoll. The Mili Atoll storyline has been bubbling up for decades, but this alternative hasn't received much attention since TIGHAR began trumpeting their Gardner Island theory.
Anyway ... The Saipan version hinges on multiple claims that a twin-engined aircraft found at Aslito airfield was in fact Earhart's. Every version of every such account I've seen states that a guard (or someone else there at the time ... ) alluded to Earhart whenever asked about the identity of the twin-engined plane. In other words, all the reports I've seen claim someone else insinuated to the reporting informant it was "Earhart's plane."
Such tenuous claims would be a lot more compelling if Earhart's Electra 10E was the only twin-engined utility / transport aircraft resembling a Lockheed Electra that could possibly have been found on Saipan.
As it turns out, this is not the case ...
First, the Japanese Navy received an Electra 10 (designated KXL1) sometime in 1936, ostensibly to be evaluated for potential acquisition. I haven't been able to locate any clues as to what became of this specimen.
Second, the Electra 10 was subsequently lengthened into the 'Super Electra' model 14 series, which first flew a few weeks after Earhart's disappearance. This is relevant because:
(a) Thirty Super Electra 14's (designated '14WG3B' / 'LO Transport') were delivered to Japan, and subsequently given the Allied designation 'Toby' during WWII.
(b) Another 119 of these Super Electra 14 LO Transport variants were built under license in Japan by Tachikawa, receiving the Allied designation 'Thelma' during WWII.
(c) Kawasaki's Ki-56 transport was a revised derivative of the Tachikawa LO Transport (i.e., a Super Electra 14), of which 121 were built and designated 'Thalia' by the Allies.
(d) The Lockheed Hudsons employed by the RAAF and RNZAF in the South Pacific were also variants on the Lockheed Super Electra 14.
All we can say based on the Saipan claims is that a twin-engined aircraft apparently resembling Earhart's Electra 10E was found at Aslito airfield. I have yet to see any evidence (including the photo above ... ) that supports this specific claim. Assuming, for the sake of discussion, the claim has merit ...
It's no big stretch to suspect the occupying US personnel may have thought they'd found the most famous Electra specimen (quite possibly the only specimen they'd ever seen, and then only in photos ... ), and they didn't know or realize the Japanese themselves had owned and operated circa 270 similar aircraft.
In contrast, I find it a huge stretch to presume any twin-engined Electra-style plane discovered at Aslito had to be the same aircraft Japanese forces allegedly secured and removed from Mili Atoll. As such, my comments above are directed against the Saipan / Aslito discovery storyline specifically, and not the Mili Atoll storyline generally.