Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Conspiracy Theories & Claims

Spookdaddy

Cuckoo
Joined
May 24, 2006
Messages
7,045
Reaction score
9,323
Points
314
Location
Midwich
...(Note to any intelligence agency monitoring these forums : I didn't, I deny everything, and I didn't order that lab equipment)

That's okay. Farting in lifts doesn't really count anyway. And baked beans are not classed as lab equipment.
 

Naughty_Felid

kneesy earsy nosey
Joined
Mar 11, 2008
Messages
9,045
Reaction score
12,680
Points
299
I think I can but unfortunately I can't find the original report that I read about this to reference it :rolleyes:. But it is basically that flu statistics are actually very difficult to collect. Hence why it is also difficult to find death rates for flu. There is no way to actually tell how many people have had flu. And as we have been finding out, many people die in care homes without ever going to hospital. This bit is all common sense when you think about it.

There is another factor, which I attach a warning to as I am relying on my memory/reading of the paper. And that is that often the figures that are collected are actually coming from excess deaths in a year and not from death certificates or flu tests. So the figures that we are getting could well be overestimates in many cases. Hence from one source you get 17, 000 and from another you get 12, 000. It may actually be less than that.

I will have a proper search a bit later I promise! I probably got it from pubmed which is why I can't find it from an intetnet search.
I was going to mention excess deaths but as I said I didn't have the time. Thanks min!
 

melon24

Devoted Cultist
Joined
Apr 4, 2005
Messages
164
Reaction score
372
Points
99
...Among the lessons learned was the need for better seroprevalence data – tests to show how widespread the infection was. Without them, no sensible estimate could be made of the case-fatality ratio. ..."

Bearing in mind that report is from ten years ago it's surprising that better testing (both quantity and facilities) were not instigated back then, including both antigen and antibody testing, in readiness for when another epidemic came along (such as the current one!).

Testing infrastructure, along with the stockpiling of equipment for emergencies, was not done. This was a political (right wing) decision made alongside all the other cuts made under the ideological Austerity Agenda. We ain't 'alf paying for it now.

Bear in mind that the figures below are from BEFORE coronavirus hit and way before the Peak.

https://theconversation.com/coronav...-in-the-uk-compares-to-the-past-decade-134420

Coronavirus: how the current number of people dying in the UK compares to the past decade

Braced. Peter Byrne/PA Wire
The speed of the global spread of coronavirus is staggering.
On March 5, Chris Whitty, the UK’s chief medical adviser, announced the death, in Berkshire, of the first UK patient to have tested positive for COVID-19, the disease associated with the new coronavirus. That patient had contracted the virus within the UK.
Exactly eight weeks earlier, on January 9, in the Chinese city of Wuhan, the first such death worldwide had occurred. At the time it was reported that there was no evidence the virus could spread between humans. That was quickly proved wrong. The virus spread around the world and the rise in deaths is now slowest in those countries it reached first.
In England and Wales, the very latest data has just been published on the number of all deaths registered in the week ending March 13 – which was 11,019 people. This was some 186 fewer than in that same week over the course of the last five years.
It’s worth looking in detail at the period just before the pandemic reached the UK to understand what huge variations in mortality occurred recently before anyone died due to COVID-19. That’s because it’s useful to know how bad the situation already was in late January, February and early March before the crisis fully hit as it is expected to – and how often the numbers dying at this time of year have risen above what the NHS and adult social services have (and have not) been able to cope with in very recent years.
Fewer deaths than average
In the 56 days from January 11 to March 6, the total number of people who died in England and Wales was recorded as being 90,940, only one of whom was known to have tested positive for COVID-19. Others who died may possibly have had the disease, but not been tested for it. However, it’s unlikely that the virus was widespread in England and Wales in the first few months of 2020. That’s because the 90,940 deaths was 5,023 people lower than the average in the same eight-week period over the previous five years, which was 95,963.
One obvious reason why fewer people died in early 2020 was because the previous five years had been extraordinarily bad, as the graph below shows by comparing the absolute numbers of deaths in these same 56 days in each of the last 11 years.
file-20200324-155674-1x56en2.png
CC BY-SA
In England and Wales the most recent year of low mortality was 2014, in which 82,670 people died and life expectancy across the whole UK temporarily reached its highest ever level for both men and women. However, 2014 was not that unusual until recently. For the five years before that, between 2009 and 2013, 85,023 people died on average in England and Wales in these same eight winter weeks. Part of the reason why there may be fewer recorded deaths during these eight weeks in 2016, 2019 and 2020 than in 2015 and 2018 is because more people died when social services and the NHS were particularly overwhelmed, leaving fewer frail people alive and at risk the next year.
The huge rises in mortality across the UK since 2010 are now widely accepted to have been linked to austerity cutbacks on services, especially social services. The rise in deaths was not due to ageing as there were very few births in the 1930s when the population currently aged 81 to 90 were born.
Mitigation matters
So how well is the UK in general geared up to deal with the spread of the virus?
It has been reported that, compared to Germany, the UK has five times fewer ventilators per person at risk. Since austerity deepened the UK has been spending roughly a million euros (£925,000) less a week on its health services compared to Germany.
There has been little planning and a great deal of denial. Reports have suggested it was only on March 11 that the full scale of the challenge facing the NHS fully dawned on the government’s scientific advisers.
 
Last edited:

Cochise

Priest of the cult of the Dog with the Broken Paw
Joined
Jun 17, 2011
Messages
7,196
Reaction score
10,834
Points
299
I found it and I remembered correctly.

https://straightstatistics.fullfact.org/article/flu-deaths-triumph-statistics-not-virology

Lots in that link relevant to discussion here by the way. It is quite interesting. For an article on statistics..
I got my figures from here:
https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-compare-influenza/

Surely we are not suggesting a fact checking website could be spreading fake news?

Here is the official government report for 2014/5. It's difficult to extract something as simple as 'how many died' from it, but fig 26 suggests 'a lot' since we peaked at 13,000 flu related deaths in a single week.

https://assets.publishing.service.g...a/file/429617/Annualreport_March2015_ver4.pdf
 
Last edited:

melon24

Devoted Cultist
Joined
Apr 4, 2005
Messages
164
Reaction score
372
Points
99
There is a lot of really interesting data presented very well and with provisos and explanations here, on the EUROMOMO website:

EuroMOMO is a European mortality monitoring activity, aiming to detect and measure excess deaths related to seasonal influenza, pandemics and other public health threats.
Official national mortality statistics are provided weekly from the 24 European countries in the EuroMOMO collaborative network, supported by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO).

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

It clearly shows the massive increase in deaths over the period since Covid-19 'took off' in Europe. Interestingly it shows high death rates amongst 15 to 64 year olds, which people on this forum have denied.
 

Min Bannister

Possessed dog
Joined
Sep 5, 2003
Messages
5,067
Reaction score
7,542
Points
314
Surely we are not suggesting a fact checking website could be spreading fake news?
No, that's not what I said at all. I was just clarifying where the figures come from. I also think the page you linked to is the same people as I linked to -just on a newer website. And it clears up the "17,000" vs "12,000" that @Naughty_Felid thought was correct as the 17,000 is the average over the last few seasons and so takes in the very high year, putting the average up.


but fig 26 suggest 'a lot' since we peaked at 13,000 flu related deaths in a single week.
The 13,000 in that figure is ALL deaths in a week.
 

Ringo

I like to not get involved in these matters
Joined
Feb 24, 2005
Messages
3,083
Reaction score
5,097
Points
239
Location
Stockholm
It clearly shows the massive increase in deaths over the period since Covid-19 'took off' in Europe. Interestingly it shows high death rates amongst 15 to 64 year olds, which people on this forum have denied.

I don't think anybody would deny that people are dying in that category because they have it as such a broad band. 15-64 is a large group. 0-15, 15-30, 30-50, 50-70, 70+ would be more accurate.
 

Naughty_Felid

kneesy earsy nosey
Joined
Mar 11, 2008
Messages
9,045
Reaction score
12,680
Points
299
Just consider this:

"
The main thing that I learned about conspiracy theory, is that conspiracy theorists believe in a conspiracy because that is more comforting. The truth of the world is that it is actually chaotic. The truth is that it is not The Iluminati, or The Jewish Banking Conspiracy, or the Gray Alien Theory.

The truth is far more frightening - Nobody is in control.

The world is rudderless.”
― Alan Moore "

And from our founder Charles Fort:

"Almost all people are hypnotics. The proper authority saw to it that the
proper belief should be induced, and the people believed properly."
- Charles Fort

I disagree, I've not found many conspiracy theorists to be particularly comfortable with their place in the world quite the opposite in fact and I have met a fair few.

Belief in conspiracies causes a fair amount of cognitive dissonance that people really cannot handle.

This is from an old, mostly retired conspiracy nut.
 
Last edited:

melon24

Devoted Cultist
Joined
Apr 4, 2005
Messages
164
Reaction score
372
Points
99
t clearly shows the massive increase in deaths over the period since Covid-19 'took off' in Europe. Interestingly it shows high death rates amongst 15 to 64 year olds, which people on this forum have denied.

I don't think anybody would deny that people are dying in that category because they have it as such a broad band. 15-64 is a large group. 0-15, 15-30, 30-50, 50-70, 70+ would be more accurate.

No, it was deaths in this age group - the younger age group, i.e. the working age population, not the crumblies- which people had particularly denied. When I wrote previously on the thread about it, people had been dismissive of it. (might not have been this thread- lost track to be honest).
 

Ringo

I like to not get involved in these matters
Joined
Feb 24, 2005
Messages
3,083
Reaction score
5,097
Points
239
Location
Stockholm
No, it was deaths in this age group - the younger age group, i.e. the working age population, not the crumblies- which people had particularly denied. When I wrote previously on the thread about it, people had been dismissive of it. (might not have been this thread- lost track to be honest).

Sorry, maybe I'm misunderstanding you. I don't think anybody has denied that. There are poeple of all ages dying especially working adults with diabetes, heart problems etc. HOWEVER, what I am saying is that the age group in that graph is too BIG to mean anything. If we split it up, say 15-50 and then 50-64, we'll find that 99% of those deaths were in the older section.

Nobody, as far as I know, has denied that people are dying below the age of 64. The important fact being that the MOST vulnerable group is over 70 as they do not have the physical endurance to overcome the illness. Those under 70 have a better chance of beating it (apart from those who have other illnesses). Some younger will obviously die.

So, again, of course a lot of people will have died in the group 15-64 because the group span is too large. It's like saying "All people eat lunch between Midnight and 4pm". Of course they do. How about breaking it down to give a more accurate picture? Midnight to 7am, 7am-10am, 10am-4pm and then see where the number of lunches land.
 

AnonyJ

Captainess Sensible
Joined
Nov 1, 2015
Messages
1,496
Reaction score
4,884
Points
164
Location
Having-a-nice-cup-of-tea-and-a-sit-down-shire
Personally I've found the drive to end lockdowns, minimize the virus has predominately come from the right wing I can't see how anyone could see it any other way. The Uk and more particularly the US did their best to sweep it under the carpet at the beginning.

I would be interested in links if you have any as I've not encountered much left-wing lunacy and I'm trying to read a mix of papers from both sides, (although I think the paywalls are pretty disgusting during times like these).

Yes, the left-leaning 'conspiracy' comments have been made around different aspects of the current situation - mainly that governments have allowed/instigated/encouraged the spread in order to kill off the less useful or economically inactive people.
 

Naughty_Felid

kneesy earsy nosey
Joined
Mar 11, 2008
Messages
9,045
Reaction score
12,680
Points
299
Yes, the left-leaning 'conspiracy' comments have been made around different aspects of the current situation - mainly that governments have allowed/instigated/encouraged the spread in order to kill off the less useful or economically inactive people.

I'm tired - explain as I always find your posts good to read and I'd like to see the links. (hint! hint!)
 

AnonyJ

Captainess Sensible
Joined
Nov 1, 2015
Messages
1,496
Reaction score
4,884
Points
164
Location
Having-a-nice-cup-of-tea-and-a-sit-down-shire
I'm tired - explain as I always find your posts good to read and I'd like to see the links. (hint! hint!)

Stuff like this from Amir Khan, an ex-boxer who is involved in social justice/community work here in the UK https://www.independent.co.uk/sport...news-5g-masts-conspiracy-theory-a9447951.html

And speculation that D. Trump has decided to kill off elderly Americans rather than have them vote against him : https://www.dailykos.com/stories/20...-the-senior-vote-Trump-pivots-to-killing-them

it's not so rabid as more right-leaning stuff but kind of gives you an idea of what I've read.
 

Cochise

Priest of the cult of the Dog with the Broken Paw
Joined
Jun 17, 2011
Messages
7,196
Reaction score
10,834
Points
299
No, that's not what I said at all. I was just clarifying where the figures come from. I also think the page you linked to is the same people as I linked to -just on a newer website. And it clears up the "17,000" vs "12,000" that @Naughty_Felid thought was correct as the 17,000 is the average over the last few seasons and so takes in the very high year, putting the average up.



The 13,000 in that figure is ALL deaths in a week.
but notice the margin over 'expected' deaths. Sorry I didn't make that clear.
 

gordonrutter

Within reason
Staff member
Joined
Aug 3, 2001
Messages
5,838
Reaction score
9,606
Points
334
Thanks for that Min - it was a very interesting read (and is there a more recent report like this?)

An interesting line in that was;
"...Among the lessons learned was the need for better seroprevalence data – tests to show how widespread the infection was. Without them, no sensible estimate could be made of the case-fatality ratio. ..."

Bearing in mind that report is from ten years ago it's surprising that better testing (both quantity and facilities) were not instigated back then, including both antigen and antibody testing, in readiness for when another epidemic came along (such as the current one!).
All down to money unfortunately.
 

Lb8535

Justified & Ancient
Joined
Sep 2, 2015
Messages
1,826
Reaction score
3,518
Points
164
I disagree, I've not found many conspiracy theorists to be particularly comfortable with their place in the world quite the opposite in fact and I have met a fair few.

Belief in conspiracies causes a fair amount of cognitive dissonance that people really cannot handle.

This is from an old, mostly retired conspiracy nut.
I see it as more like people who buy into a conspiracy need the comfort of belonging to a group combined with feeling good about knowing better than anyone else especially people with scientific degrees. They may not get what they want however, and may be disgruntled and leave. I don't think this applies to the UFO folks because there really is enuf evidence out there of something to keep them going (and no I am not strong on UFO's except that there does appear from reliable sources to be actual unidentified stuff flying around up there, we may just be bad at identifying.)
 

Analogue Boy

Bar 6
Joined
Aug 10, 2005
Messages
12,285
Reaction score
13,618
Points
314
The Self-isolation message has been wrong from the start. We don’t do metres. Most of us don’t even know what a yard is.
 

AlienView

"Stargate Explorer"
Joined
Aug 11, 2017
Messages
291
Reaction score
218
Points
44
Location
Cyberspace
WHY CONSPIRACY THEORY ON COVID 19 ???

I live in Nevada USA - Population just over 3 million.

There have been just over 6 thousands confirmed cases of Covid 19.

Of these cases there have been 306 deaths - That's total 306 deaths!

WOW!!! Heavens to Betsy {old colloquial expression of surprise}

And the governor is now saying the state has financial problems !?!?
- What would you expect when you close down the main industry of the State
{the casinos}. Sure it prevented the spread of the disease - But there wasn't much
disease here in the first place - And that is in spite of people coming here from
all over the World!

SOMETHING IS NOT RIGHT - It doesn't add up!

Just from the point of view of here in Nevada, and I know you can find other places,
the draconian reactions of the PTB are out of sync with reality
- Unless there is some kind of agenda 'they' are not telling us about.

Or did someone say Martians? - Maybe I should stick to Alien Conspiracy theories
- They make more sense - Unless, unless this is an alien conspiracy ?

Welcome to "THE TWILIGHT ZONE" !!!
 

Ascalon

Abominable Snowman
Joined
Jul 3, 2009
Messages
501
Reaction score
1,183
Points
154
Disturbing news coming out of some hospitals in the UK, via the BBC.

Coronavirus doctor's diary: 'They say I have blood on my hands'

"Within Bradford's Asian community a few individuals are spreading fake news that non-white patients will be left to die in hospital. Dr John Wright of Bradford Royal Infirmary hears from an anaesthetist who has been receiving abusive messages as a result.

The isolation of patients in the hospital from the community outside continues to spark small fires of uncertainty and false rumours. This is happening in cities across the country, and Bradford is no exception.

Sometimes it's claimed that the higher death rate among black, Asian and other ethnic minority patients is because they are being killed off by the very hospital staff meant to help them.

For our Muslim clinicians, to have their dedication and professionalism questioned as they work long shifts in the Covid wards while fasting during the holy month of Ramadan must be especially galling."
 

Ringo

I like to not get involved in these matters
Joined
Feb 24, 2005
Messages
3,083
Reaction score
5,097
Points
239
Location
Stockholm
WHY CONSPIRACY THEORY ON COVID 19 ???

I live in Nevada USA - Population just over 3 million.

There have been just over 6 thousands confirmed cases of Covid 19.

Of these cases there have been 306 deaths - That's total 306 deaths!

WOW!!! Heavens to Betsy {old colloquial expression of surprise}

And the governor is now saying the state has financial problems !?!?
- What would you expect when you close down the main industry of the State
{the casinos}. Sure it prevented the spread of the disease - But there wasn't much
disease here in the first place - And that is in spite of people coming here from
all over the World!

SOMETHING IS NOT RIGHT - It doesn't add up!

Just from the point of view of here in Nevada, and I know you can find other places,
the draconian reactions of the PTB are out of sync with reality
- Unless there is some kind of agenda 'they' are not telling us about.

Or did someone say Martians? - Maybe I should stick to Alien Conspiracy theories
- They make more sense - Unless, unless this is an alien conspiracy ?

Welcome to "THE TWILIGHT ZONE" !!!
d4d307162dbdbf58980cf18f0fc72787.jpg
 

Spookdaddy

Cuckoo
Joined
May 24, 2006
Messages
7,045
Reaction score
9,323
Points
314
Location
Midwich
I live in Nevada USA - Population just over 3 million.

There have been just over 6 thousands confirmed cases of Covid 19.

Of these cases there have been 306 deaths - That's total 306 deaths!...

If you are using post-measures figures to prove that the measures are unnecessary, then...

...It doesn't add up!...

Of course it won't add up!

It's like using the fact that you have arrived at a quotient as evidence that the sum was unnecessary; like, if you multiply two by itself you get four, and if you've got four, then, hey, two was never a number.
 
Last edited:

AlienView

"Stargate Explorer"
Joined
Aug 11, 2017
Messages
291
Reaction score
218
Points
44
Location
Cyberspace

Opinion: What if we treated COVID-19 like an alien invasion?
April 04, 2020
By
  • Joseph R. Bankoff

"I always thought if Earth was invaded by invisible creatures from Mars seeking to destroy human life the whole world would join together to find ways to fight the common enemy. Surely, peoples across the globe would lay aside their differences and fight together when national borders, race, gender, education, money, or military might anywhere could not protect people everywhere against an invisible enemy that uses our own human immune system to kill us.

National governments everywhere are behaving very badly. They all have followed the same playbook: (Phase 1) ignore the problem; (Phase 2) conceal or deny there is a problem; (Phase 3) minimize the problem; (Phase 4) belatedly react and abruptly declare there is a problem; and (Phase 5) form “crisis” committees to seek solutions and the physical and human resources needed to address the problem; (Phase 6) look to blame someone else for the problem..........


— but is not enough. It also destroys both the economy and society.

Two clear lessons from China: 1) “social isolation” does not work at scale; and 2) waiting to test and isolate when people show symptoms does not protect others or stop the spread.........."

See whole article here:
https://www.ajc.com/news/opinion/op...d-like-alien-invasion/TJbXs8LifknqgNd0fdTuUP/


You see? - There really is something called Human Intelligence!
 

Trevp666

It was like that when I got here.........honest!!!
Joined
May 29, 2009
Messages
5,690
Reaction score
15,508
Points
299
Location
Welwyn Garden City (but oddly, not an actual city)
Thanks to the lockdown there's still very little that I and Giorgio A. Tsoukalos have in common, except for nowadays the hair.
 

Cochise

Priest of the cult of the Dog with the Broken Paw
Joined
Jun 17, 2011
Messages
7,196
Reaction score
10,834
Points
299
Someone else has had a look at Ferguson's code. Well, not the actual code, as mentioned previously.

https://chrisvoncsefalvay.com/2020/05/09/imperial-covid-model/

This chap's credentials look pretty good:

"Virologist (host/pathogen interactions, bat-borne viruses) by day, clinical computational epidemiologist by night, constantly sleep-deprived husband and dad to the world's most adorable Golden Retriever puppy"

Edit: And another one (warning, strong language) .

https://streetwiseprofessor.com/code-violation-other-than-that-how-was-the-play-mrs-lincoln/

For the uninitiated, the C language is generally considered a poor language these days precisely because it is possible to write code in it that is machine dependant (and highly obscure). It was the best tool in its day the 1980's . By the 1990's most people were using C++ which is kind of 'C with a safety net'. The suspicion that the code was originally in FORTRAN and has been 'converted' in to C some time in the past is not going to help. It's rare - rare like Dodo eggs - to find an automatic code translator that does not introduce unexpected changes in logic. I've been involved in several such transitions over the years.

The interestingly named Sue Denim has published a 'part 2'

https://lockdownsceptics.org/second-analysis-of-fergusons-model/

I've extracted this from the comments down below, because it is an area which I directly deal with in my current product. It has currency fields which require a certain degree of accuracy - we promise 15 digits (our product is aimed at SME's, no billion dollar turnovers).

"Models like this one are iterative, so small initial inaccuracies in floating point calculations can rapidly be expanded to larger ones as the errors propagate. It’s for this reason that programmers know not to use floats to store monetary amounts: it can appear to work right up until compound interest calculations are performed and suddenly accounts don’t reconcile anymore.

Note that the ICL code uses OpenMP for all its parallelism. The Intel paper observes that:

“Parallel reductions in OpenMP are mandated by the OpenMP directive, and can not be disabled by /fp:precise (-fp-model precise). They are value-unsafe, and remain the responsibility of the programmer.”

In other words there’s no way to make this code reproducible without rewriting every place where parallelism is used to not use OpenMP. Instead parallel reductions need to use a fork/join framework in which every task is given a deterministic label, the results are stored in an array indexed by that label and then summed serially at the end, to ensure the results are always added in the same order. Otherwise the non-associativity of floating point arithmetic can yield “randomly” varying outputs (it’s not random in a statistical sense, it just looks like it). "


Edit again - the stick out tongue emoticon is an interesting programming error in itself! (It's not really meant to be there, is just the way the forum software has interpreted a parameter list).
 
Last edited:
Top