Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): The Disease & Its Spread (Per Se)

Naughty_Felid

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This is something else that's turned in to a ridiculous confrontation like so many things do these days. Maybe its the internet itself to blame. Almost nothing is so simple that anyone's take on it is completely correct.

There are extremists , sure. But , while accepting there is a new strain of a virus out there , it's perfectly legitimate to make some points.

First, it is NOT an especially severe virus (thank goodness). If it was then half of us would be dead. See Ebola for a recent example. Second, there is a genuine debate over what are the correct measures to take over dealing with the virus. Third, there seems to be a concentration on the predictions of mathematical modellers rather than listening to actual virologists who are expert in the field. I could raise other points, but overall just because there is a serious situation we should not be shutting down our critical faculties.
Yeah no, it's fine, hardly anyone has died. funnily enough, I never used to get updates on who has snuffed it on a weekly basis with the flu.
 

Cochise

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Yeah no, it's fine, hardly anyone has died. funnily enough, I never used to get updates on who has snuffed it on a weekly basis with the flu.
It's not that 'hardly anyone' has died. I accept that people have died, some of them with no or insignificant co-morbidities. And there was a sizeable spike of deaths in spring, although the UK cases had actually started to fall before the first lockdown.

Now, there isn't a significant spike of deaths (again, UK) So why are we panicking again? Number of cases? But number of cases is a function of number of tests - unless one generates a ratio of tests to cases the case figure is meaningless.

I can't see any way this virus is going to be eliminated. No virus has been, as far as I know, except smallpox, and that had the peculiar mutation that it could no longer survive except in humans. It also took over a hundred years to achieve. Most if not all other viruses can live in animals and will periodically return. Some have died out or become harmless through their own mutation or by being too deadly.

The vaccinations (correctly applied) should help reduce deaths further - even the manufacturers do not claim it will stop the virus spreading.

'Herd immunity' is a nonsense buzz phrase. What we should be aiming at is that as many as possible either have antibodies or that their immune system is programmed to create the appropriate antibodies as required. Those who have already caught the thing will mostly already be in that situation, hopefully. (Edit - and obviously those who have had the vaccine will at least have antibodies.) There are long term test regimes in place trying to determine how long the protection lasts - a friend is on one. He (and his wife) have been confirmed as having antibodies even though they have no recollection of having caught Covid-19.

It's quite likely annual vaccinations will be needed for the vulnerable like the 'flu.
 
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gordonrutter

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It's not that 'hardly anyone' has died. I accept that people have died, some of them with no or insignificant co-morbidities. And there was a sizeable spike of deaths in spring, although the UK cases had actually started to fall before the first lockdown.

Now, there isn't a significant spike of deaths (again, UK) So why are we panicking again? Number of cases? But number of cases is a function of number of tests - unless one generates a ratio of tests to cases the case figure is meaningless.
https://forums.forteana.org/index.p...its-spread-per-se.66968/page-135#post-2023517
 

Cochise

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I was referring to spikes in overall deaths. Obviously you can't die of flu if you've already died of Covid-19, so the best guide to the impact is the number of deaths in total. It also takes the issue of from/with out of the equation. The figures are of course muddied by all the other deaths, but a seriously deadly disease will cause a significant rise above the norm.

There is also the issue that since October there has not been a clear distinction in the figures between flu and covid-19 deaths.
 
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Cochise

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Death rates naturally lag behind infection rates. Infection rates have spiked.

It's not rocket science.
How do you know? What is the ratio positive tests to total tests? How many tests are repeated tests on the same person? There have been repeated alleged spikes in infections since September but no corresponding spike in overall deaths. (Deaths from all causes, to avoid the misunderstanding above)

It is in fact rocket science. Or at least, one should be using the same rigorous standards to analyse the data.
 

charliebrown

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So much for a good 2021 as the English mutant virus is showing up in the U.S.

The U.S is considering splitting doses of vaccines to make more shots.

That does not sound right to me ?
 

Stormkhan

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Monday on BBC radio, UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock claims South African strain much more infectious.
I admit I'm a cynic but I'd say that's misdirection. "Well, at least our new strain isn't as bad as theirs!"
 

Cloudbusting

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I admit I'm a cynic but I'd say that's misdirection. "Well, at least our new strain isn't as bad as theirs!"
Must admit I'd be very surprised if they knew enough about it yet to confidently come to that conclusion...
 

Stormkhan

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Now you've got me humming that song and peeking at my VHS tape collection. :)
 

SketchyMagpie

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I admit I'm a cynic but I'd say that's misdirection. "Well, at least our new strain isn't as bad as theirs!"
The South African strain *is* our new one, isn't it?
On the day they put London into Tier 4 just before Christmas, they announced a new variant from South Africa had been found here (on top of the other variant they announced not long before that).

To be honest, I've lost track which "new variant" they're talking about on the radio whenever they mention it, since we have two. They need to give them names like storms.
 

SketchyMagpie

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How do you know? What is the ratio positive tests to total tests? How many tests are repeated tests on the same person? There have been repeated alleged spikes in infections since September but no corresponding spike in overall deaths. (Deaths from all causes, to avoid the misunderstanding above)

It is in fact rocket science. Or at least, one should be using the same rigorous standards to analyse the data.
It's excess mortality you need to look at. Over 80k more people have died in the UK in the past year than compared to historical averages, so that wipes out regular flu deaths etc for comparison (though will of course include indirect deaths that may otherwise have been avoided, but which remain a factor whilst hospitals are at capacity): https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938

As for the rest of your comment, simply look at the charts and apply logic. People who test positive and tragically die from infection don't do so immediately, do they? And a person who might receive multiple positive tests isn't taking up two hospital beds, are they?
 

Naughty_Felid

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It's not that 'hardly anyone' has died. I accept that people have died, some of them with no or insignificant co-morbidities. And there was a sizeable spike of deaths in spring, although the UK cases had actually started to fall before the first lockdown.

Now, there isn't a significant spike of deaths (again, UK) So why are we panicking again? Number of cases? But number of cases is a function of number of tests - unless one generates a ratio of tests to cases the case figure is meaningless.

I can't see any way this virus is going to be eliminated. No virus has been, as far as I know, except smallpox, and that had the peculiar mutation that it could no longer survive except in humans. It also took over a hundred years to achieve. Most if not all other viruses can live in animals and will periodically return. Some have died out or become harmless through their own mutation or by being too deadly.

The vaccinations (correctly applied) should help reduce deaths further - even the manufacturers do not claim it will stop the virus spreading.

'Herd immunity' is a nonsense buzz phrase. What we should be aiming at is that as many as possible either have antibodies or that their immune system is programmed to create the appropriate antibodies as required. Those who have already caught the thing will mostly already be in that situation, hopefully. (Edit - and obviously those who have had the vaccine will at least have antibodies.) There are long term test regimes in place trying to determine how long the protection lasts - a friend is on one. He (and his wife) have been confirmed as having antibodies even though they have no recollection of having caught Covid-19.

It's quite likely annual vaccinations will be needed for the vulnerable like the 'flu.
I'm withdrawing from the further debate on this topic as I just don't have the energy. Stay safe.
 

Cloudbusting

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Might be of interest to others given recent discussions on here - a short article from ITV covering Chris Whitty's thoughts/rationale behind extending the rollout between doses: https://www.itv.com/news/2021-01-05...ths-behind-widening-gap-between-vaccine-doses

Essentially he's said that dose 1 should give most people a decent level of protection and overall it's better to vaccinate a larger number of people more quickly (greater net benefit). However, interestingly, he's acknowledged that this approach increases the risk for mutated strains...
 

Cochise

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It's excess mortality you need to look at. Over 80k more people have died in the UK in the past year than compared to historical averages, so that wipes out regular flu deaths etc for comparison (though will of course include indirect deaths that may otherwise have been avoided, but which remain a factor whilst hospitals are at capacity): https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938

As for the rest of your comment, simply look at the charts and apply logic. People who test positive and tragically die from infection don't do so immediately, do they? And a person who might receive multiple positive tests isn't taking up two hospital beds, are they?
Acute bed occupation is lower this year than last year. The excess deaths come from the spike in March/April (although it's not as many as 80k). The NHS is consistently in crisis this time of year because of winter respiratory diseases - has been for the last 10 years. Don't blame Covid-19 for that.

If there is one thing i agree with Tony Blair about it is those adverts that used to say everything is politics - however this is not a politics discussion board so necessarily we cannot fully debate why the NHS can't cope with the annual winter surge.
 

marhawkman

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The South African strain *is* our new one, isn't it?
On the day they put London into Tier 4 just before Christmas, they announced a new variant from South Africa had been found here (on top of the other variant they announced not long before that).

To be honest, I've lost track which "new variant" they're talking about on the radio whenever they mention it, since we have two. They need to give them names like storms.
I think they kind of are... but boring names that people won't remember. It's probably for the best. from the looks of things we'll run out of letter in the alphabet soon.
 

Stormkhan

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I wonder if they've got Winston Wolfe on the job ...
 

Schrodinger's Zebra

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Mr Zebra and I watched this video t'other day - very interesting and I'd thoroughly recommend watching it.

I'd be interested to know the forum thoughts on this:

 

Mythopoeika

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Nurse gets Pfizer jab, then gets Covid!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55579028
An NHS nurse who has contracted Covid-19 three weeks after being vaccinated says she is "angry and heartbroken".

The hospital nurse, who works within the Hywel Dda University Health Board area, said morale is at an all-time low among her colleagues.

British Medical Association (BMA) Cymru Wales has already expressed concern about the length of time between doses.

The health board said the vaccination offers "the best protection we have, but no vaccine is 100% effective".
 
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