Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): The Disease & Its Spread (Per Se)

Gloucestrian

Ephemeral Spectre
Joined
Jul 30, 2016
Messages
332
Reaction score
773
Points
94
Location
Gloucester
Statistical noise. It is like saying average wage has gone up when millions of low paid workers have lost their jobs.
 

charliebrown

Abominable Snowman
Joined
Nov 2, 2020
Messages
541
Reaction score
669
Points
93
Location
Earth
I believe it as supposedly 400, 000 Americans are now dead.
 

Gloucestrian

Ephemeral Spectre
Joined
Jul 30, 2016
Messages
332
Reaction score
773
Points
94
Location
Gloucester
Alright, let's try this again. Average life expectancy is a statistic. As with all statistics the sample affects the resulting statistic. At present the sample includes a massive increase in premature deaths from essentially a single cause.

The main usefulness of average list expectancy is to evaluate the effect of long term public health policy e.g. things like distribution of free contraceptives, vaccination of at-risk groups for specific diseases such as the HPV vaccine, the effect of regular checkups.

In a pandemic of course average life expectancy has dropped. But what does it tell us? Does it suggest that Americans have suddenly become significantly more unhealthy in general? Does it suggest an issue with diet? Does it provide evidence of something seriously wrong with general policy?

No. It can't do that because it is just statistical noise from a sudden massive increase in mortality that is being mirrored in many countries due to the COVID pandemic. You can certainly try and compare like for like statistics, such as deaths from COVID-19 per 100000, which could provide useful insights into public policy responses and which policies were more effective but it is meaningless that average life expectancy has gone down. The pope is Catholic, bears defecate in forested areas, etc. It is just something completely expected, it isn't news (man bites dog).

If average life expectancy had gone up during the pandemic, that might be newsworthy.
 

blessmycottonsocks

Antediluvian
Joined
Dec 22, 2014
Messages
5,684
Reaction score
9,833
Points
284
Location
Wessex and Mercia
We're watching the TF1 French 20:00 news and, after reporting from Washington, they started discussing the Covid vaccination programme.
71 people have now died across Europe, after receiving the Pfizer vaccine, all of whom were aged 75 or older.
This is being investigated but there is speculation that perhaps the elderly are more likely to react badly to the Pfizer vaccine.
 

Trevp666

It was like that when I got here.........honest!!!
Joined
May 29, 2009
Messages
3,587
Reaction score
9,085
Points
219
Location
Welwyn Garden City (but oddly, not an actual city)
Another shameful day in the UK's response to the pandemic – 1820 recorded deaths to add to the 1610 yesterday. That is a genuinely shocking death toll for one of the world's biggest economies and supposedly a modern, developed country. Truly, truly shameful.
This does, however, have to be put into context.
The day with the most deaths with C19, by date of death, is back at the start of April with just over 1000.
Todays number is the reported date, and the actual date of death for these reported ones are spread over quite a period covering the past 3 weeks.
In these past 3 weeks, during which we passed through the peak of this 'second wave' the day with the highest figure of deaths is Jan 12th now on 756, with all subsequent days dropping in numbers.
And 756 is bad enough, but it is clearly nowhere near 1820.

Edit; to clarify - the 756 is from the NHS England report on their website. So you can add on about 30% to account for all the other regions as well.
 
Last edited:

Min Bannister

Possessed dog
Joined
Sep 5, 2003
Messages
5,005
Reaction score
7,233
Points
309
This does, however, have to be put into context.
The day with the most deaths with C19, by date of death, is back at the start of April with just over 1000.
Todays number is the reported date, and the actual date of death for these reported ones are spread over quite a period covering the past 3 weeks.
In these past 3 weeks, during which we passed through the peak of this 'second wave' the day with the highest figure of deaths is Jan 12th now on 756, with all subsequent days dropping in numbers.
And 756 is bad enough, but it is clearly nowhere near 1820.

Edit; to clarify - the 756 is from the NHS England report on their website. So you can add on about 30% to account for all the other regions as well.
Don't forget all the deaths that are occurring in care homes or elsewhere other than hospitals. I believe that is about another 25%.
 

Min Bannister

Possessed dog
Joined
Sep 5, 2003
Messages
5,005
Reaction score
7,233
Points
309
We're watching the TF1 French 20:00 news and, after reporting from Washington, they started discussing the Covid vaccination programme.
71 people have now died across Europe, after receiving the Pfizer vaccine, all of whom were aged 75 or older.
This is being investigated but there is speculation that perhaps the elderly are more likely to react badly to the Pfizer vaccine.
71 out of how many vaccinations? 71 people, all of whom over 75 in the whole of Europe sounds like hardly any to me so it could easily be just the normal death rate but of course it has to be investigated.
 

Min Bannister

Possessed dog
Joined
Sep 5, 2003
Messages
5,005
Reaction score
7,233
Points
309
Don't forget all the deaths that are occurring in care homes or elsewhere other than hospitals. I believe that is about another 25%.
And all the other deaths that will have occurred today but have not been reported yet.

Sorry about the triple post but my kindle keeps freezing and it is very awkward and distracting!
 

Ghost In The Machine

Justified & Ancient
Joined
Mar 17, 2014
Messages
1,618
Reaction score
4,766
Points
159
Location
Yorkshire
I saw a hospital dr saying on Twitter it will be around 2000 a day in the next week or so, til it slows down because of the lockdown - and that may take a few weeks, as we know, to show in the deaths. New cases have fallen but not enough, yet.

If it's 400,000 USA-ians and nearly 100,000 Brits that is half a million people from our two countries alone. (And what is even more shocking, the US population isn't just 4 times our's).
 

Ghost In The Machine

Justified & Ancient
Joined
Mar 17, 2014
Messages
1,618
Reaction score
4,766
Points
159
Location
Yorkshire
Another shameful day in the UK's response to the pandemic – 1820 recorded deaths to add to the 1610 yesterday. That is a genuinely shocking death toll for one of the world's biggest economies and supposedly a modern, developed country. Truly, truly shameful.
Agree. Utterly shameful. Heads need to roll.
 

blessmycottonsocks

Antediluvian
Joined
Dec 22, 2014
Messages
5,684
Reaction score
9,833
Points
284
Location
Wessex and Mercia
71 out of how many vaccinations? 71 people, all of whom over 75 in the whole of Europe sounds like hardly any to me so it could easily be just the normal death rate but of course it has to be investigated.
Don't know. I do know that the UK has vaccinated more people than the rest of Europe, but I cannot find any breakdown of what proportion have received the Pfizer vaccine or the Oxford one.
The 71 deaths were all reported as following the Pfizer vaccine though.
Perhaps, in the fullness of time, it may emerge that Pfizer is more contra-indicated for elderly people than Oxford, or the figures may not be statistically significant at all.
It didn't surprise me that French media are reporting this though, as there seems to be very widespread mistrust of the vaccination programme over the Channel.
 

Mythopoeika

I am a meat popsicle
Joined
Sep 18, 2001
Messages
43,958
Reaction score
35,804
Points
309
Location
Inside a starship, watching puny humans from afar
Don't know. I do know that the UK has vaccinated more people than the rest of Europe, but I cannot find any breakdown of what proportion have received the Pfizer vaccine or the Oxford one.
The 71 deaths were all reported as following the Pfizer vaccine though.
Perhaps, in the fullness of time, it may emerge that Pfizer is more contra-indicated for elderly people than Oxford, or the figures may not be statistically significant at all.
It didn't surprise me that French media are reporting this though, as there seems to be very widespread mistrust of the vaccination programme over the Channel.
I had an interesting conversation with my Mum earlier this evening. She told me that a friend of hers has a son who works as a research scientist for a major pharmaceutical company. His preference is for the Oxford vaccine. This is a man with a PhD, working in the pharma field. This confirms my own thinking, so I really would prefer that vaccine rather than the Pfizer one.
That said, my Mum had the Pfizer jab a week ago, and so far she is OK. Too early to tell what long-term consequences might be.
 

gordonrutter

Within reason
Staff member
Joined
Aug 3, 2001
Messages
5,398
Reaction score
8,670
Points
309
I had an interesting conversation with my Mum earlier this evening. She told me that a friend of hers has a son who works as a research scientist for a major pharmaceutical company. His preference is for the Oxford vaccine. This is a man with a PhD, working in the pharma field. This confirms my own thinking, so I really would prefer that vaccine rather than the Pfizer one.
That said, my Mum had the Pfizer jab a week ago, and so far she is OK. Too early to tell what long-term consequences might be.
Did he give reasons?
 

Ghost In The Machine

Justified & Ancient
Joined
Mar 17, 2014
Messages
1,618
Reaction score
4,766
Points
159
Location
Yorkshire
I had an interesting conversation with my Mum earlier this evening. She told me that a friend of hers has a son who works as a research scientist for a major pharmaceutical company. His preference is for the Oxford vaccine. This is a man with a PhD, working in the pharma field. This confirms my own thinking, so I really would prefer that vaccine rather than the Pfizer one.
That said, my Mum had the Pfizer jab a week ago, and so far she is OK. Too early to tell what long-term consequences might be.
Might be the storage issue. Pfizer won't work if there's a mis-step somewhere, I'm guessing, as it has to be frozen and Oxford doesn't..? But they're also based on very different theories, so I read.
 

EnolaGaia

I knew the job was dangerous when I took it ...
Staff member
Joined
Jul 19, 2004
Messages
21,715
Reaction score
30,998
Points
309
Location
Out of Bounds
Newly published research indicates talking is as bad or worse for airborne transmission of COVID-19 in poorly-ventilated spaces.
Talking is worse than coughing for spreading COVID-19 indoors

In poorly-ventilated spaces, COVID-19 is more likely to spread through talking than coughing, a new study says.

Talking may lead to more transmission of COVID-19 than coughing does, particularly in poorly ventilated spaces, a new study finds.

What's more, the study researchers found that under these conditions, the virus can spread more than 6 feet (2 meters) in just seconds.

The findings show that social distancing alone isn't enough to prevent COVID-19 transmission — face masks and adequate ventilation are also of vital importance to curb the spread, the authors said. ...

In the new study, published Tuesday (Jan. 19) in the journal Proceedings of the Royal Society A, the researchers used a mathematical model to examine how COVID-19 spreads indoors depending on the size of the space, the number of people inside, how well the space is ventilated and whether people are wearing face masks.

The study found that when two people are in a poorly ventilated space and not wearing masks, prolonged talking is much more likely than a short cough to spread the virus. That's because when we speak, we generate small droplets that can hang in the air, spread and accumulate in an area without adequate ventilation. On the other hand, a cough produces more large droplets, which quickly fall to the floor and settle on surfaces. ...
FULL STORY: https://www.livescience.com/covid-19-spread-talking-coughing-indoors.html
 

Ogdred Weary

Very Naughty Boy
Joined
Apr 2, 2012
Messages
5,414
Reaction score
9,942
Points
284
A friend had her first dose of the Oxford one yesterday - works for a company that provides care for the elderly. She was told that originally it was going to be three weeks to second dose but will now be 3-6 weeks for reasons noted above. Another friend has had a (possibly heavily confused) message from her mother that a family friend had the first dose of the Pfizer one and has caught covid in the intervening period before the second one, which was delayed and possibly strayed outside the allotted time period for effectiveness.
 

EnolaGaia

I knew the job was dangerous when I took it ...
Staff member
Joined
Jul 19, 2004
Messages
21,715
Reaction score
30,998
Points
309
Location
Out of Bounds
Because the currently available vaccines are administered via a two-dose regimen, questions have arisen regarding mixing doses from two different vaccines. In part the issues relate to which two vaccines are in play.
Can COVID-19 vaccines be mixed and matched?

... Health officials say both doses should be of the same vaccine.

The COVID-19 vaccines rolling out in the United States, the United Kingdom and other parts of the world so far require two shots given a few weeks apart.

In the U.S. where Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are being distributed, health officials say the vaccines are not interchangeable. In England where shots by Pfizer and AstraZeneca are available, officials also say the doses should be consistent.

But in the rare event that the same kind isn’t available or if it’s not known what was given for the first shot, English officials say it’s OK to give whichever vaccine is available for the second shot. Since the Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines work in a similar way, they say a mismatched dose is better than partial protection. ...

But without any studies, vaccine doses should not be mixed, said Naor Bar-Zeev, a vaccine expert at Johns Hopkins University.

If people do happen to get a different vaccine for their second shot by accident, Bar-Zeev said it is likely “to work fine and likely to be well tolerated,” but evidence is needed to be sure.
SOURCE: https://apnews.com/article/us-news-...irus-vaccine-3f3a54b13325a53bcd9bc5bac2a1aca7
 

Mythopoeika

I am a meat popsicle
Joined
Sep 18, 2001
Messages
43,958
Reaction score
35,804
Points
309
Location
Inside a starship, watching puny humans from afar
Did he give reasons?
Because it's been done using the same methods and procedures as for other conventional vaccines, I think. My Mum wasn't able to get much more detail from her friend.
 

Analogue Boy

Bar 6
Joined
Aug 10, 2005
Messages
11,625
Reaction score
11,806
Points
309
Sooner the fucking better. It’s going to be a miserable future life with people reminiscing about when they used to hang out at Nandos and squabbling over what a Debenhams was while emancipated ‘strong’ women provide endless bikini pics from some foreign beach the rest of us can’t get to.
 

Victory

Justified & Ancient
Joined
Jan 15, 2017
Messages
1,123
Reaction score
2,400
Points
154
Location
London
Glad awareness of this is being raised.
The type of mask you wear affects how protected you and others are.

"The French government is now recommending that people wear surgical masks in public because they offer better protection from COVID-19 transmission than fabric face coverings, Health Minister Olivier Veran said on Thursday."

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-france-veran-idUSKBN29Q2R7
 

Swifty

doesn't negotiate with terriers
Joined
Sep 15, 2013
Messages
30,536
Reaction score
45,490
Points
284
Newly published research indicates talking is as bad or worse for airborne transmission of COVID-19 in poorly-ventilated spaces.


FULL STORY: https://www.livescience.com/covid-19-spread-talking-coughing-indoors.html
In the shop I work in, I always leave both the large front doors wide open every day to dilute airborne transmission. Most of my customers walk in from cars anyway so are wearing jackets. Nobody's complained yet plus I can mop the floor early and the sea breeze dries my floor quickly. I deep cleaned the ceiling filters the first week I started there .. and the cold area is better for the food I'm selling plus I get free speed coffee to warm me up. Sorted.
 

EnolaGaia

I knew the job was dangerous when I took it ...
Staff member
Joined
Jul 19, 2004
Messages
21,715
Reaction score
30,998
Points
309
Location
Out of Bounds
It's increasingly obvious that certain COVID patients have to deal with pesky neurological deficits following recovery from the main / respiratory infection.
COVID Can Cause Forgetfulness, Psychosis, Mania or a Stutter

The virus induces neurological symptoms that persist long after the pandemic ends

... A growing body of evidence warns that the legacy of the pandemic does not necessarily disappear when the novel coronavirus, or SARS-CoV-2, is cleared from the body. Among the millions of people who have survived respiratory complications from COVID-19, many still live with lingering symptoms in the wake of even a mild case of the disease. Neurological symptoms, ranging from fatigue to brain fog to loss of smell, persist after the virus is gone from the body.

An early survey of 153 COVID-19 patients in the U.K. and a more recent preprint study of people hospitalized with the disease in Italy both found that about a third had neurological symptoms of some kind. Other estimates have trended even higher. “There’s a really wide spectrum of [neurological] manifestations of COVID,” says Thomas Pollak, a neuropsychiatrist at King’s College London and a co-author of the U.K. study. “Some are totally devastating, like stroke or encephalitis, and some are much more subtle.” Increasingly common symptoms include fatigue and memory problems—and, at times, new cases of psychosis or mania.

Some neurological manifestations of post-COVID, such as stuttering, are more bizarre than others. ...
FULL STORY: https://www.scientificamerican.com/...e-forgetfulness-psychosis-mania-or-a-stutter/
 

charliebrown

Abominable Snowman
Joined
Nov 2, 2020
Messages
541
Reaction score
669
Points
93
Location
Earth
South African mutant virus 501.V2 is cause for concern.

501.V2 is not affected by antibodies from original virus.

Medical people are watching this mutant closely.
 

charliebrown

Abominable Snowman
Joined
Nov 2, 2020
Messages
541
Reaction score
669
Points
93
Location
Earth
Friday night UK’s Boris Johnson announced to the nation that B117 is 70% more transmissionable and sadly 30% more deadly.
 

EnolaGaia

I knew the job was dangerous when I took it ...
Staff member
Joined
Jul 19, 2004
Messages
21,715
Reaction score
30,998
Points
309
Location
Out of Bounds
The US CDC has announced initial data on adverse reactions to the Moderna vaccine in people inoculated up through 10 January.
CDC: 10 life-threatening reactions linked with Moderna COVID-19 vaccine

Ten of the more than 4 million people in the United States who received the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine through Jan. 10 experienced a potentially life-threatening side effect, according to data released Friday by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The side effect, anaphylaxis, is a severe allergic reaction that can occur within seconds or minutes of exposure to an allergen. ...

Symptoms of anaphylaxis include a skin rash, nausea, vomiting, difficulty breathing and shock. In most cases, it can be treated quickly with the "epi pen."

Nearly 1,300 given the shot as of that date reported side effects as a result. All but 53 of these were considered minor, non-allergic reactions to the vaccine, such as swelling at the injection site ...

That figure includes the 10 cases of anaphylaxis, as well as 43 other allergic reactions that include itchy skin, rash, itchy sensations in the mouth and throat, sensations of throat closure and respiratory symptoms such as shortness of breath ...

The 10 cases of anaphylaxis all occurred in women who received the shot, half of whom had a history of having a reaction to a vaccine and all but one of whom had medication allergies ...

The women ranged from age 31 to 63, and all but one began to experience the symptoms of anaphylaxis fewer than 15 minutes after receiving the shot ...

All 10 were treated with the epi pen, which contains the drug epinephrine, and all are believed to have recovered fully, according to the agency. ...
SOURCE: https://www.upi.com/Odd_News/2021/0...wielding-squirrel-in-back-yard/9701611265002/
 

Trevp666

It was like that when I got here.........honest!!!
Joined
May 29, 2009
Messages
3,587
Reaction score
9,085
Points
219
Location
Welwyn Garden City (but oddly, not an actual city)
For the week ending Friday January 22nd 2021, here is a review of the daily reported NHS England figures on SARS-Cov-2 (Covid 19) 'new' deaths.
All statistics taken from NHS England official reporting available online here, (along with a number of other statistical reports on various NHS activities);
Also now including an update on recent 'new cases' figures from the governments own 'coronavirus dashboard'.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/?_ga=2.58498792.313126479.1601306538-867402.1589210068

(Numbers of 'new' deaths in the regions other than England are recorded separately so are NOT represented here, nor are deaths in 'other settings' such as Care Homes.
Figures released by the ONS at a later date will include these additional statistics - it has been accountable for roughly an additional 30% - 40% on top of the NHS England numbers)

(Figures supplied by NHS England date back to the beginning of March 2020 when the UK recorded it's first day with more than 50 deaths.
The figures released daily include deaths from the day on which they happened, so can be from any previous day NOT from just within the previous 24 hours)

DATA COLLECTION BY NHS ENGLAND ON DEATHS - CLARIFICATIONS.
Clarification #1
"The total announced file is updated daily and contains information on the deaths of patients
who have died in hospitals in England and either tested positive for COVID-19,
or where no positive test result was received for COVID-19, but COVID-19 was mentioned on their death certificate"
So the data includes deaths as.... 'with C19'.... even if no positive test has been done!
Clarification #2
It was officially confirmed months ago that NHS England figures had been over-reported due to the fact that a significant number of people were being recorded as dying from SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19),
when in fact they had died of some other unrelated ailment, but their death happened some time after they had tested positive but recovered.
This explains why we had seen deaths from weeks and weeks beforehand appearing in the figures released daily.
It was reported that an adjustment was made to the figures to account for the mis-recorded deaths,
(adjusted down by 5340 using a 28 day cut-off period, which brought the existing total down to around 37,000 deaths at the time - the government were advised to use a 21 day cut-off but decided on 28 days)
We are, however, still seeing deaths included in the daily reports which come from longer than 28 days ago.
Clarification #3
It has been reported that a significant number of cases of infection, and deaths attributed to Covid-19, particularly in the earlier (peak) stages of the pandemic in the UK, were 'double-reported'.
This occurred in cases in which someone had received a positive test whilst 'in the community', and then went to hospital where they again received a positive test.
Not only was their test double-counted, if they also died then their death was double counted.
It was apparently thought to be correct procedure at the time.
I have not seen yet whether there is a plan to make an adjustment for these double-counts.

So even the NHS reporting is not as accurate as it could/should be.
(the historical numbers I show on this update have not been adjusted - assume that reported deaths on dates up to the August 15th are approximately 10% less)

CASES/TESTING INFORMATION;
A documentary on TV in November exposed the failings in the current testing labs whereby cross contamination of samples was common.
(Which was further confirmed as many staff at the Lighthouse Lab in Milton Keynes were having to self-isolate during December due to infection, including 20 of the 70 testing staff)
These cross contaminations lead to more false positive results than would otherwise be the case for those test methods, so this is inflating the count.
It has been confirmed that a significant proportion of the testing being carried out is 'repeat testing' of individuals, either that have previously tested positive (done to see how long it lasts), or those working in
care situations (to establish infection free status), so this is inflating the count.
Testing continues to increase week-on-week, and unfortunately MORE TESTS = MORE CASES, with the following results;
Yesterdays 'new cases' number, 40,261
(Last weeks update gave the previous day figure as 55,761, so this week is a drop of 27.8% on last week)
The 40,261 came by way of 665,330 tests being carried out.
Which equates to 6% of tests giving a positive result, so a decrease in real terms over previous weeks (last week was 8%, the previous week was 10.9%), and in fact a big drop compared to the 3 weeks immediately before Christmas when the percentage was nearing 15%!
As has been addressed elsewhere though, the current 'PCR' testing is also producing many 'false positives'.
The WHO updated their advice on use of the PCR test only recently, saying that it's use as a diagnostic test is unreliable.
"The Lancet" shows research establishing a False Positive Rate (FPR) of around 4%, so if 4% of 700,000 are false positives then that is 28,000.
A significant proportion of the reported 'new cases' then (around half currently).
Bear this in mind when looking at the figure of reported 'new cases' (as above).


'Tiered' restrictions came into force on Monday Sept 14th, followed by a new 'Lockdown 2' from November 5th, and then returning to stricter 'tiered' areas.
These restrictions all came about due to advice from SAGE group, however, the advice has been proven to be based on out-of-date data, has been 'worst case scenario', and has not been reacted to with any reference to the economic and other health effects being created.
Whitty and Vallance went on TV on Monday 21/9 (no questions allowed afterwards).
At that time they suggested cases would be doubling weekly, ongoing, leading to 50,000 cases daily by the middle of October (leading to 4,000 deaths per day!)
On that day the reported number of 'new cases' was 3899 (but since then recalculated to show just over 4000), so using their estimation we should be seeing over a billion UK daily cases in the UK by now!!!!!!!
Which was clearly just preposterous.
That would basically mean the whole of the UK would have been infected at least 16 times over by now.
As a result of the continued pressure from SAGE and other advisers, Boris Johnson announced on Saturday 31/10 that we would be subjected to a 2nd 'lockdown' period, lasting 4 weeks, from November 5th to December 2nd, even though, as we can see from the official figures, numbers of deaths and cases peaked, levelled off, and began to drop, before the 31/10 in some areas.
During the accompanying televised briefing, charts and data were presented which WITHIN HOURS were shown to be data which was 3 weeks old, and incorrect, and misleading, forcing clarifications and corrections to be made the following day, and Whitty and Vallance being called to present information to the 'select committee' on Tuesday Nov 3rd.
However this did not prevent the government vote which was held on Wednesday Nov 4th from going against the lockdown, which went ahead the following day.
A further vote happened in the House of Commons, on December 2nd, in relation to the introduction of a new set of 'tiered' restrictions to be brought in the following day.
It was reported that up to 100 (ish) MPs would vote against, including tory backbenchers which have formed the Covid Recovery Group (CRG) after demanding a cost/benefit analysis to be produced beforehand.
To date, no cost/benefit analysis has been provided because one was never carried out.
Ultimately only 50+ voted against (not enough to stop the new restrictions from coming into force), but there were debates held in the House of Commons beforehand with many strong arguments against.
Sir Kier Starmer instructed Labour MPs to abstain.
This was reviewed on December 16th with more areas moved into stricter restrictions.
A 'Tier 4' was created and introduced during the Christmas Week for many areas, with no apparent end in sight.
England was put into another 'Lockdown' period on Jan 6th which has been 'pencilled in' to last until March 31st (although the government advise that some restrictions are likely to be lifted earlier than that).
However, this Lockdown was brought in before parliament was given the opportunity to scrutinise, debate, or vote on it. Ultimately only a handful of MPs voted against it.

It has now also come to light that, yet again, the previously disgraced Professor Neil Ferguson has been advising the government with speculative 'models' which are exaggerated.

My concern is that the numbers of new deaths are now including seasonal flu as C19.
It came to my attention that the ONS included information in a report in early October that it would no longer be producing separate reports for C19 and Influenza.
There was no further information to indicate whether or not this meant that the C19 deaths and 'Flu deaths would be combined into one figure, or if the separate reports would be merged into one report but keeping the totals separate?
If the figures for C19 and 'Flu are going to be combined into one total then that renders all future comparisons void as we will no longer be 'comparing apples with apples'.
My concern now is that this might have already been introduced and is therefore artificially inflating the statistics as we are NOT seeing hardly any seasonal 'flu deaths now, when typically at this time of year they increase rapidly!
(The NHS produces an annual report that covers the preceding March - March period, giving details of all sorts of data sets. One of these data sets is Hospital Admissions and Diagnosis. It will be interesting to see that report analysed later this year.)

Additionally, the ambition to vaccinate 22 million people by Easter was stated (which was amended later to say 13.5m by 'mid-February', but we'll stick with 22m by Easter).
That being the case, and with the number already vaccinated as of Thursday 21st Jan being stated as 5.4 million (almost), the following would need to happen;
22m - 5.4m = 16.6m left to vaccinate.
Days left until Easter Sunday = 71.
16.6m divided by 71 = 235,211 (and a bit).
So over 230,000 people will need to be vaccinated every day to achieve that number.
And each day that quantity is NOT achieved, the number needed during each following day increases.
Despite expectations that the ambition was unachievable, the numbers being vaccinated appears to be currently of a sufficient level.
However, we have had reports that the manufacturers have been having problems with production, shipping and storage, and additionally there are issues with capacity to deliver the doses to patients in some areas.


THIS WEEKS FIGURES, NOTABLE STATISTICS AND RELATED INFORMATION/REMARKS;
5585 reported 'new' deaths this past week.
Last weeks update total was 5072, so this week is an increase of 513 on the previous weekly total, which is a 10.1% increase (a much smaller % increase than last weeks, which was 34.3%).

There were no days during this past week in which the report released for that day recorded ZERO deaths during the previous 24 hour period.
(During the time before this winter increase there had been 22 separate days in which, during the preceding 24 or 48 hours, there had been zero deaths reported)

The most reported 'new' deaths in one day, from one site, during this past week was 38.
This was achieved by THE QUEEN ELIZABETH HOSPITAL, KING'S LYNN, NHS FOUNDATION TRUST in the data released on January 17th.

The oldest reported 'new' death during this past week is from October 20th 2020 (over 3 months ago! - well beyond the '28 days' cut off period, and yet being reported as a 'new death'!)
This was reported by NORTH CUMBRIA INTEGRATED CARE NHS FOUNDATION TRUST in the data released on January 21st.

The last day previously which recorded more than 50 total deaths was June 24th, for which the total stands at 54.
The highest daily total of 'new deaths' recently is now 771 on Tuesday January 12th
The day with the lowest total of deaths since April is Saturday August 29th, for which the total is 2.

Thursday this past week reporting 134 'new' deaths for the whole of England, however, as the daily figure is communicated to NHS England at 5pm each day the total for the whole of yesterday is not complete.
Totals of deaths by age group for this past weeks released data;
0-19 = 1
20-39 = 35
40-59 = 368
60-78 = 2101
80+ = 3080
(92.77% of the total number of 'new' deaths are now 'over 60', a slight increase on last weeks %, which was 92.55%)
(55.15% of the total were over 80, a slight decrease on last weeks which was 55.3%)
NOTE: Now that the vaccination programme has been underway since December 7th, and the groups being prioritised have been the 80+ and carers, we should see a noticeable, and significant, drop in the numbers of deaths in the 80+ age group - at time of writing this note (Jan 9th) the percentage of 80+ deaths stands at 57.3%. If we DO NOT see a drop in that percentage, then it can only mean that the vaccines are not effective.

Below are the running totals for 'existing' + 'new' = new total - where no new figures have been reported for a day then no calculation has been entered.
(This weekly update shows the additions from all the reports published during this preceding week, in which the deaths fall within the period since
Thursday April 2nd, the date I started logging the numbers officially released)

Sorry that this is now quite a long list of dates and numbers - please scroll to the bottom for the most recent statistics.
(As the data prior to the lowest recorded figures during early August rarely changes now, I have removed that from this weekly report.
The 'highest' figure during the early weeks of the pandemic was on April 4th, with 1,111.)

S 5 (August 1st)
S 14
M 11
T 8
W 5
T 7
F 6
S 7 (August 8th)
S 6
M 8
T 11
W 4
T 4
F 5
S 11 (August 15th)
S 3
M 10
T 8
W 3
T 3
F 6
S 5 (August 22nd)
S 10
M 5
T 10
W 10
T 7
F 5
S 2 (August 29th)
S 4
M 7
T 3
W 9
T 4
F 6
S 8 (Sept 5th)
S 7
M 9
T 11
W 7
T 9
F 7
S 8 (Sept 12th)
S 14
M 11
T 12
W 16
T 20
F 19
S 11 (Sept 19th)
S 24
M 16
T 25
W 38
T 24
F 22
S 30 (Sept 26th)
S 34
M 39
T 35
W 41
T 43
F 48
S 38 (Oct 3rd)
S 38
M 40
T 50
W 58
T 57
F 50
S 61 (Oct 10th)
S 76
M 72
T 71
W 81
T 91
F 91
S 130 (Oct 17th)
S 91
M 116
T 131+1=132
W 198
T 145
F 144
S 133 (Oct 24th)
S 164
M 170
T 168
W 178
T 209
F 206
S 215 (Oct 31st)
S 222
M 222
T 208
W 235
T 217+1=218
F 232
S 272 (Nov 7th)
S 255
M 311
T 267
W 237+1=238
T 272
F 262
S 291 (Nov 14th)
S 296
M 270
T 293
W 326
T 294
F 301
S 266 (Nov 21st)
S 319
M 297
T 311
W 325
T 285
F 285
S 312 (Nov 28th)
S 313
M 267
T 271+1=272
W 267
T 299
F 290+1+1=292
S 258 (Dec 5th)
S 275
M 250+1=251
T 290+1=291
W 269+1+1=271
T 295+1+1=297
F 287
S 296+1+1=298 (Dec 12th)
S 283+1+3=287
M 299+1+1+1=302
T 313+1=314
W 269+1=270
T 330+1+2+1=334
F 322+1+2+1+1=327
S 304+1+1=306 (Dec 19th)
S 329+2=331
M 368+1+1=370
T 358+1=359
W 365+1=366
T 357+1+1+3=362
F 408+1+1=410
S 429+1+1=431 (Dec 26th - Boxing Day)
S 453+1+1=455
M 425+4+1=430
T 435+2+1+1+1=440
W 452+1+1+1=455
T 492+1+2+1+1=497
F 476+1+4+2=483
S 479+1+1+2+1+1=485 (Jan 2nd)
S 451+1+1=453
M 549+2+4+3+1+4=563
T 583+1+5+1=590
W 595+3+1+2+1+1+3+2=608
T 610+7+7+4+2+2+1=633
F 615+8+5+4+2=634
S 617+15+9+1+2+1+3=648 (Jan 9th)
S 635+20+13+3+6+2+2=681
M 672+22+16+2+12+4+1+6=735
T 632+50+33+6+19+16+5+10=771
W 459+169+40+15+14+8+5+11=721
T 108+352+131+38+38+25+11+14=717
F 102+279+89+98+72+33+16=689
S 85+286+174+138+26+46=755 (Jan 16th)
S 61+348+226+56+29=720
M 106+410+150+74=740
T 121+379+222=722
W 102+410=512
T 134
 

charliebrown

Abominable Snowman
Joined
Nov 2, 2020
Messages
541
Reaction score
669
Points
93
Location
Earth
Last week the U.K. warned the U.S. that the British virus B 117 was nasty stuff.

Supposedly 70% more infectious and 30% more deadly.

Then there is the South African mutant that is supposed to be the T-Rex in the room.

This virus thought not to respond the vaccinations.

The future is unclear at present.
 

charliebrown

Abominable Snowman
Joined
Nov 2, 2020
Messages
541
Reaction score
669
Points
93
Location
Earth
Federal Drug Administration has come across an unexpected side effect of the COVID vaccine.

It seems that the vaccine is interfering with plastic surgeons gel fillers in the face to get rid of face wrinkles.

The explanation is thought to be that the vaccine sends the immune system into hyperdrive and the immune systems starts attacking the face fillers.

Redness and swelling occurs on the face.
 
Top