Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): The Disease & Its Spread (Per Se)

Souleater

Justified & Ancient
Joined
Jan 10, 2021
Messages
3,005
Reaction score
5,059
Points
203
I see in the news today than head of the EU, Ursula vo der Leyen is, on one hand, threatening to limit the supply of vaccines to the UK, siting, the UK is not supplying the EU with enough vaccines, and one the other hand over half the EU nations have suspended the use of the O-A-Z vaccine?!? Talk about mixed messages

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/45877605
 

EnolaGaia

I knew the job was dangerous when I took it ...
Staff member
Joined
Jul 19, 2004
Messages
21,794
Reaction score
31,177
Points
309
Location
Out of Bounds
The WHO report on its recent investigation into COVID-19's origin is still weeks away, but one scientist who was on the WHO team has given a specific indication of what the report will claim.
WHO thinks it knows where COVID-19 originated

After a months-long investigation, the World Health Organization (WHO) has found that wildlife farms in China are likely the source of the COVID-19 pandemic.

These wildlife farms, many of them in or around the southern Chinese province of Yunnan, were likely supplying animals to vendors at the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan, where early cases of COVID-19 were discovered last year, Peter Daszak, a disease ecologist on the WHO team that traveled to China, told NPR. Some of these wild animals could have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 from bats in the area.

The WHO is expected to release its findings in a report in the coming weeks. ...
FULL STORY: https://www.livescience.com/who-says-china-wildlife-farms-may-be-source-covid-19.html
 

Lobeydosser

Devoted Cultist
Joined
May 23, 2007
Messages
209
Reaction score
505
Points
109
More on the Norwegian discoveries - https://www.vg.no/nyheter/innenriks...le-vaccinated-with-astrazeneca-has-been-found

Edit - And I've just had a family member who had AZ vacination today have a bad reaction - completely numb arm a few hours after then alarmingly something like lockjaw - where they couldn't move their jaw for 20 mins. 111 line gave no real advice - they seem to be doing better now and just feel like they have "Flu".
 
Last edited by a moderator:

EnolaGaia

I knew the job was dangerous when I took it ...
Staff member
Joined
Jul 19, 2004
Messages
21,794
Reaction score
31,177
Points
309
Location
Out of Bounds
The EMA has released a statement on their conclusions from the meeting held on 18 March.
COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca: benefits still outweigh the risks despite possible link to rare blood clots with low blood platelets

News 18/03/2021

EMA’s safety committee, PRAC, concluded its preliminary review of a signal of blood clots in people vaccinated with COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca at its extraordinary meeting of 18 March 2021. The Committee confirmed that:
  • the benefits of the vaccine in combating the still widespread threat of COVID-19 (which itself results in clotting problems and may be fatal) continue to outweigh the risk of side effects;
  • the vaccine is not associated with an increase in the overall risk of blood clots (thromboembolic events) in those who receive it;
  • there is no evidence of a problem related to specific batches of the vaccine or to particular manufacturing sites;
  • however, the vaccine may be associated with very rare cases of blood clots associated with thrombocytopenia, i.e. low levels of blood platelets (elements in the blood that help it to clot) with or without bleeding, including rare cases of clots in the vessels draining blood from the brain (CVST).
These are rare cases – around 20 million people in the UK and EEA had received the vaccine as of March 16 and EMA had reviewed only 7 cases of blood clots in multiple blood vessels (disseminated intravascular coagulation, DIC) and 18 cases of CVST. A causal link with the vaccine is not proven, but is possible and deserves further analysis. ...

The Committee’s experts looked in extreme detail at records of DIC and CVST reported from Member States, 9 of which resulted in death. Most of these occurred in people under 55 and the majority were women. Because these events are rare, and COVID-19 itself often causes blood clotting disorders in patients, it is difficult to estimate a background rate for these events in people who have not had the vaccine. However, based on pre-COVID figures it was calculated that less than 1 reported case of DIC might have been expected by 16 March among people under 50 within 14 days of receiving the vaccine, whereas 5 cases had been reported. Similarly, on average 1.35 cases of CVST might have been expected among this age group whereas by the same cut-off date there had been 12. A similar imbalance was not visible in the older population given the vaccine.

The Committee was of the opinion that the vaccine’s proven efficacy in preventing hospitalisation and death from COVID-19 outweighs the extremely small likelihood of developing DIC or CVST. ...
FULL STORY: https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/c...-risks-despite-possible-link-rare-blood-clots
 
Last edited:

Swifty

doesn't negotiate with terriers
Joined
Sep 15, 2013
Messages
30,563
Reaction score
45,597
Points
284

EnolaGaia

I knew the job was dangerous when I took it ...
Staff member
Joined
Jul 19, 2004
Messages
21,794
Reaction score
31,177
Points
309
Location
Out of Bounds
Following the EMA's announcement about the AstraZeneca vaccine's relative safety, some European nations are pressing ahead with plans to resume using it.
Germany, Italy, Spain to restart AstraZeneca shot; EU regulator says 'benefits outweigh risks'

Germany, Italy, Spain and other European nations that had halted administering the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine over reports of blood clotting announced Thursday the resumption of their inoculation campaigns after the European and British drug regulators said the benefits of the shot far outweigh its risks. ...

More than a dozen European countries had temporarily suspended administering the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine ...

On Thursday, both the EMA's Pharmacovigilance Risk Assessment Committee and Britain's Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulator Agency separately said the vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and Oxford University is not associated with an increased risk in blood clots in those who receive it. ...

Following the announcement by the EMA, Germany, Italy and Cyprus announced they would be restarting their campaigns on Friday while Spain said it would resume its inoculations with the drug on Wednesday. ...

Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi announced the resumption of its AstraZeneca vaccination rollout in a brief statement ...

On Wednesday, Draghi's office said he had spoken with French President Emmanuel Macron and they agreed if the EMA analysis came back positive "the two leaders are ready to promptly restart administration of the AstraZeneca vaccine." ...

However, Norway, Sweden and Denmark said they will maintain their temporary suspension. ...
FULL STORY: https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/202...it-outweighs-risks-blood-clots/3731616084432/
 

EnolaGaia

I knew the job was dangerous when I took it ...
Staff member
Joined
Jul 19, 2004
Messages
21,794
Reaction score
31,177
Points
309
Location
Out of Bounds
Couldn't we all just take asprin to self medicate ourselves around this potential threat I wonder? .. 'on the shoulders of giants' .. our professionals have already created an over the counter head ache remedy that's also a blood thinner.
Funny you should bring this up ... Results from multiple research studies announced this week suggest low-dose aspirin can help shield people against the worst effects of getting a COVID-19 infection.

Low-dose aspirin can reduce the risk of ICU admission and death of Covid-19, researchers say
https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/18/health/aspirin-coronavirus-icu-wellness/index.html

Low-Dose Aspirin May Help Shield You From COVID-19
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210315/low-dose-aspirin-may-help-shield-you-from-covid-19#1
 

Naughty_Felid

kneesy earsy nosey
Joined
Mar 11, 2008
Messages
8,591
Reaction score
11,535
Points
294
Couldn't we all just take asprin to self medicate ourselves around this potential threat I wonder? .. 'on the shoulders of giants' .. our professionals have already created an over the counter head ache remedy that's also a blood thinner.

Asprin has its own issues with several conditions so health folk don't want people taking that on mass. It's safe for some but not everybody.

So it's not simple and you really need to talk to your doctor if you are thinking of taking aspirin regularly
 
Last edited:

stu neville

Commissioner.
Staff member
Joined
Mar 9, 2002
Messages
12,605
Reaction score
6,720
Points
309
Yes, aspirin (and other painkillers), even at low doses shouldn't be used long term without having first consulted a medical professional. A degree of COVID protection is all well and good but a gastric ulcer isn't an acceptable side effect.

EnolaGaia was recording the findings rather than actively promoting them.

(Whilst we're at it, close gates, take your litter home with you, don't fool with fireworks and the right-hand lane is for overtaking only.)
 
Last edited:

maximus otter

Recovering policeman
Joined
Aug 9, 2001
Messages
8,127
Reaction score
17,310
Points
309
Covid: Prison outbreaks thought to skew stats

Coronavirus outbreaks in prisons across England are believed to lie behind several regions' spikes in infection rates, causing "a degree of alarm" according to health officials. This is despite cases nationally reaching their lowest point since September 2020.



Which areas have seen spikes recently?

An outbreak at HMP Sudbury in early March caused cases in the Derbyshire Dales to nearly treble, pushing the area to record the highest infection rate in the country for several days.

Similarly, a surge in cases across half of the 12 male wings of HMP Peterborough in late February happened while the area's rate reached the second highest in the country.

Earlier in February, an outbreak at HMP Stocken in Rutland caused the infection rate in England's smallest county almost to double, with officials saying at one point "around half" of cases in the area were from the prison.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-56405523

maximus otter
 

Trevp666

It was like that when I got here.........honest!!!
Joined
May 29, 2009
Messages
3,614
Reaction score
9,223
Points
219
Location
Welwyn Garden City (but oddly, not an actual city)
something like lockjaw
Sounds nasty. Isn't that the effect from 'tetanus'? Which comes from getting a dirty infection in a cut (eg) AFAIK.

And as many will know, I have been following the statistics closely with regards to daily 'new cases' and the NHS daily reports on 'new deaths' etc.
I was posting weekly updates on the figures but stopped for 2 reasons - my own political musings were creeping in, plus the numbers started dropping significantly.

Anyhoo.....here's the main fact that I have gleaned from the stats over the past couple of months.
The C19 jab was rolled out in early December in the UK.
At the time, the largest percentage of people dying (on the NHS reports) were in the older age groups.
Basically 90% were over 60, and further, 50% were over 80.
The percentage points varied by a little bit, some days a point or two higher, some days a point or two lower, but pretty much around that figure constantly.
So the use of 'the jab' was targeted initially at the eldest and most vulnerable, and then once those had all been done, moving down in tiers through the 80+, 70+, 60+ etc etc.
So, by mid January, something like 95% of the over 80s had received their first dose of either the Pfizer/BionTech or the O.A.Z vaccine.

As such, assuming the vaccine was as efficacious as we were being told it was (If memory serves me right here, it was 60% protection from the first dose, and 95% protection after the 2nd dose), the I was expecting to see that the NHS reports on 'new deaths' would show a significant and distinct decrease in the deaths in the older age groups initially, from the end of January, and that decrease becoming more and more evident throughout February and into March.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

But you can look at the daily reports yourself ^^^^^^
There is no significant decrease in the deaths in those older age groups (the stats are broken down on the excel spreadsheet by 'tabs' along the bottom - look for the 'by age' tab)
The official stats show that the 'over 60' age group has continued to be on around 90% of the daily total, and the '80+' age group have continued to be on around 50% of the total, in fact, if anything, and rather worryingly, the '80+' age group is starting to show a slight increase.

The numbers of total 'new deaths' over all age groups have been plummeting since they peaked on/around Jan 19th, but the statistics DO NOT support any influence of 'the jab', as if that were the case then the stats would show the age groups that were first to receive their first dose would have decreased first on these reports.
 

maximus otter

Recovering policeman
Joined
Aug 9, 2001
Messages
8,127
Reaction score
17,310
Points
309
@maximus otter Are there figures for the death rate in those places?
If you mean just the geographical areas of the prisons, then not that I'm aware of, and it would be difficult to isolate them.

If you mean prisoner deaths, then 86 prisoners have died "with" Covid so far. The current prison population is 78,081, so a death rate of 0.11% "with" Covid.

maximus otter
 

Souleater

Justified & Ancient
Joined
Jan 10, 2021
Messages
3,005
Reaction score
5,059
Points
203
Sounds nasty. Isn't that the effect from 'tetanus'? Which comes from getting a dirty infection in a cut (eg) AFAIK.

And as many will know, I have been following the statistics closely with regards to daily 'new cases' and the NHS daily reports on 'new deaths' etc.
I was posting weekly updates on the figures but stopped for 2 reasons - my own political musings were creeping in, plus the numbers started dropping significantly.

Anyhoo.....here's the main fact that I have gleaned from the stats over the past couple of months.
The C19 jab was rolled out in early December in the UK.
At the time, the largest percentage of people dying (on the NHS reports) were in the older age groups.
Basically 90% were over 60, and further, 50% were over 80.
The percentage points varied by a little bit, some days a point or two higher, some days a point or two lower, but pretty much around that figure constantly.
So the use of 'the jab' was targeted initially at the eldest and most vulnerable, and then once those had all been done, moving down in tiers through the 80+, 70+, 60+ etc etc.
So, by mid January, something like 95% of the over 80s had received their first dose of either the Pfizer/BionTech or the O.A.Z vaccine.

As such, assuming the vaccine was as efficacious as we were being told it was (If memory serves me right here, it was 60% protection from the first dose, and 95% protection after the 2nd dose), the I was expecting to see that the NHS reports on 'new deaths' would show a significant and distinct decrease in the deaths in the older age groups initially, from the end of January, and that decrease becoming more and more evident throughout February and into March.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

But you can look at the daily reports yourself ^^^^^^
There is no significant decrease in the deaths in those older age groups (the stats are broken down on the excel spreadsheet by 'tabs' along the bottom - look for the 'by age' tab)
The official stats show that the 'over 60' age group has continued to be on around 90% of the daily total, and the '80+' age group have continued to be on around 50% of the total, in fact, if anything, and rather worryingly, the '80+' age group is starting to show a slight increase.

The numbers of total 'new deaths' over all age groups have been plummeting since they peaked on/around Jan 19th, but the statistics DO NOT support any influence of 'the jab', as if that were the case then the stats would show the age groups that were first to receive their first dose would have decreased first on these reports.
I would reason that on a year by year comparison the death rates for the 90+ and 80+ age groups are consistant at this tine of year, and as has been pointed out previously, these are people dying with covid19 not necessarily from covid19. Older people die more often than younger people, that is just a fact of life.
 

Trevp666

It was like that when I got here.........honest!!!
Joined
May 29, 2009
Messages
3,614
Reaction score
9,223
Points
219
Location
Welwyn Garden City (but oddly, not an actual city)
General death statistics as 'from all things' indicate that yes.
But the NHS reports I link to specifically relate to deaths associated with C19, so my analysis still applies.
 

maximus otter

Recovering policeman
Joined
Aug 9, 2001
Messages
8,127
Reaction score
17,310
Points
309
I would reason that on a year by year comparison the death rates for the 90+ and 80+ age groups are consistant at this tine of year, and as has been pointed out previously, these are people dying with covid19 not necessarily from covid19. Older people die more often than younger people, that is just a fact of life.
Covid is, as it has always been, a disease that kills the very old and the very sick.

Here it is in graph form from the Office of National Statistics just now:



https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths?areaType=region&areaName=North West

UK average age of death: 82.4 years

maximus otter
 

Souleater

Justified & Ancient
Joined
Jan 10, 2021
Messages
3,005
Reaction score
5,059
Points
203
General death statistics as 'from all things' indicate that yes.
But the NHS reports I link to specifically relate to deaths associated with C19, so my analysis still applies.
I understamd that, however no amount of protection from vaccination can take away underlying health issues that are usually associated with deaths in elderly patients, it you are ill anyway the chances of you dying with covid are increased and a lot of older people have a lot of underlying health issues, without covid19 these people may well have died from something else such as flu anyway, as i mentioned up thread, the cases of people dying from flu are massively down year on year since the covid outbreak.
 

Trevp666

It was like that when I got here.........honest!!!
Joined
May 29, 2009
Messages
3,614
Reaction score
9,223
Points
219
Location
Welwyn Garden City (but oddly, not an actual city)
Little point in giving C19 vaccines to them then if they will die from other things anyway.
 

Ringo

Musky Sly Old Foxy Stoat
Joined
Feb 24, 2005
Messages
3,013
Reaction score
4,810
Points
184
Location
Stockholm
Little point in giving C19 vaccines to them then if they will die from other things anyway.
How many people over 60 or 70 or 80 have had their second dose yet? The mortality rate will still be high until they get their second jab + 2 weeks. It was my understanding that the UK are giving as many people as possible 1 dose and then waiting the maximum 12 weeks before giving the other. That means that the majority of people who received a jab in December are due the next one soon. However, they have meanwhile had 3 months to catch it and die - as did one of my friend's parents.

As for not giving it to people who will die of other things anyway (bad health, old age) then I find myself equally repulsed and understanding of the idea.

Why spend the time and money vaccinating millions of people who will die within 2 or 3 years anyway when the vaccines could be used on the working population in order to get the world working again? Surely properly isolating the vulnerable, vaccinating those who work with them and then vaccinating the working population will mean that they the oldest are protected anyway be deafult.

But then again, I (of a working age) are less likely to die of it and therefore can run the risk of getting it. An elderly person cannot so they should be vaccinated first. Waiting 12 weeks between their jabs, however, is dicing with death.
 

Souleater

Justified & Ancient
Joined
Jan 10, 2021
Messages
3,005
Reaction score
5,059
Points
203
Little point in giving C19 vaccines to them then if they will die from other things anyway.
The same reason that yearly flu jabs are given to the elderly and vulnerable, you try to minimise the the amount of people dying from an essintially non-fatal virus, very few people with no underlying heath issues die from flu, the same is true with covid19, if you can minimise the chances of people catching the virus in the first place, you therefore reduce the number of fatalities.
 
Last edited:

Stormkhan

Disturbingly familiar
Joined
May 28, 2003
Messages
4,602
Reaction score
1,700
Points
184
When it comes to vaccinating workers so they can get going, might I suggest that even if they have a lower chance of serious harm/death if contracted, they can still carry it. And no vaccine is 100% protection from infection.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Trevp666

It was like that when I got here.........honest!!!
Joined
May 29, 2009
Messages
3,614
Reaction score
9,223
Points
219
Location
Welwyn Garden City (but oddly, not an actual city)
How many people over 60 or 70 or 80 have had their second dose yet?
Thu UK govt 'coronavirus dashboard' states that (as of yesterday);
First dose total
25,735,472
Second dose total
1,879,054

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations

I expect that they are working through the 2nd doses in the same order.
As there are (by 2019 stats) about 3.3 million people over 80 in the UK, I would suggest that all the people that have received their 2nd dose so far are over 80, with a small number of other 'essential workers' also being included.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/281174/uk-population-by-age/
 

blessmycottonsocks

Antediluvian
Joined
Dec 22, 2014
Messages
5,684
Reaction score
9,836
Points
284
Location
Wessex and Mercia
Was feeling cautiously optimistic until a couple of days ago.
Now the news that a third wave, including several variants, is sweeping across Europe and with France and Germany imposing yet another lockdown, it's looking inevitable that the UK will follow suit.
Furthermore, the EU's sabre rattling and threats to withhold vaccine deliveries has a very ominous feel to it.
I hope I'm proved wrong, but I can see some very bleak times ahead and fear that 2021 will be as much of a washout as 2020.
 

Mythopoeika

I am a meat popsicle
Joined
Sep 18, 2001
Messages
44,018
Reaction score
35,955
Points
309
Location
Inside a starship, watching puny humans from afar
Furthermore, the EU's sabre rattling and threats to withhold vaccine deliveries has a very ominous feel to it.
They don't have to behave like such complete arses, do they?
It would help if they realised that cooperation would get us all out of this mess.
 

maximus otter

Recovering policeman
Joined
Aug 9, 2001
Messages
8,127
Reaction score
17,310
Points
309
Was feeling cautiously optimistic until a couple of days ago.
Now the news that a third wave, including several variants, is sweeping across Europe and with France and Germany imposing yet another lockdown, it's looking inevitable that the UK will follow suit.
Furthermore, the EU's sabre rattling and threats to withhold vaccine deliveries has a very ominous feel to it.
I hope I'm proved wrong, but I can see some very bleak times ahead and fear that 2021 will be as much of a washout as 2020.
On the basis of what’s being flatulated by the authorities, how can it ever be said to have ended?

There’ll be a third, fourth and umpteenth wave, then it’ll mutate into the squared and cubed variants, then it’ll be time for Covid-20. Or -21, -22 etc.

Despite years of flu jabs, it still comes round every year. How can Our Lords and Masters dismount from this tiger without it eating them?

maximus otter
 

Cochise

Priest of the cult of the Dog with the Broken Paw
Joined
Jun 17, 2011
Messages
6,710
Reaction score
9,162
Points
284
I've decided not to comment further on this. We have known from the first weeks of the pandemic that the number of deaths credited to Covid-19 were polluted by unwise changes in the recording criteria. It is now clear that the PCR tests have not followed the manufacturers recommendations regarding number of detected molecules which can (and apparently has) resulted in a very large number of false positives. In addition the WHO recommendations regarding number of cycles have been ignored, again tending to an exaggerated number of false positives. This affects not only the 'case' data but also of course the death data where the only indication of Covid-19 is a PCR test.

This should have been clear to the authorities as long ago as the Liverpool army tests, carried out using the alternative lateral flow tests, and also by comparison with the ZOE study. The latter comparison alone suggests something like 40% of UK PCR tests have resulted in false positives. The Liverpool discrepancy was even greater.

We therefore, as far as the UK is concerned, have no reliable figures to analyse. As the PTB's have been treating the PCR tests as being the accurate ones, it follows their decisions have been based on radically damaged data.

I'm not going to quote sources, they are out there if anyone cares enough any more to look. They will explain the mechanisms by which the failure to follow the correct procedures will create misleading results.

I'm simply , as I said, going to leave the discussion since, as I no longer give the data any credit, I cannot sensibly discuss any decisions made on that data.

Edit: Clarification - by 'this' I mean 'The Disease and its Spread per se' .
 
Last edited:

Ghost In The Machine

Justified & Ancient
Joined
Mar 17, 2014
Messages
1,620
Reaction score
4,775
Points
159
Location
Yorkshire
Was feeling cautiously optimistic until a couple of days ago.
Now the news that a third wave, including several variants, is sweeping across Europe and with France and Germany imposing yet another lockdown, it's looking inevitable that the UK will follow suit.
Furthermore, the EU's sabre rattling and threats to withhold vaccine deliveries has a very ominous feel to it.
I hope I'm proved wrong, but I can see some very bleak times ahead and fear that 2021 will be as much of a washout as 2020.
I'm the other way, am feeling cautiously optimistic. If the vaccines are as effective as we think, it's not going to be so great a problem as before. I think some of those EU countries lifted lockdown too soon, and are paying the price. We did our usual too little, too late which may just this once, play in our favour given that most of the most at risk population are at least half jabbed.
 

Vardoger

I'm #1 so why try harder
Joined
Jun 3, 2004
Messages
6,081
Reaction score
5,517
Points
309
Location
Scandinavia
Two additional deaths from blood clot after getting the AstraZeneca vaccine has been reported in Norway. That's five in total so far.
 
Top