Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): The Disease & Its Spread (Per Se)

blessmycottonsocks

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Guardian article arguing (with some justification) that the real death toll from the pandemic is millions higher than the official figures.

The official global death toll currently stands around 4.8 million. The real number, however, is thought to be closer to 16 million.
That's still well below the 1918 influenza pandemic that killed an estimated 75 million.

Some countries, including Turkey and Russia, are not disclosing the real Covid mortality rate, as it would be a national embarrassment to reveal how badly they handled the crisis.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/08/global-covid-death-toll-higher-pandemic
 

Victory

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Covid-19 may have evolved nine years ago in a Chinese mineworker, US expert claims​

Samples of a miner’s puzzling disease were sent to researchers in Wuhan for study, from where they may have escaped into the population.

Dr Latham says the emergence of the Alpha variant in Kent last Autumn proves that the virus can make "strange evolutionary leaps" and quickly develop large numbers of mutations when inside an individual for a long time.

Back in 2012, six miners who were shovelling bat guano in the Tongguan mineshaft in Mojiang, Yunnan, became seriously ill with a pneumonia-like illness that bore a striking similarity to Covid-19. [Three sadly died.]

Just a year after the deaths, Wuhan scientists discovered a virus named RaTG13 in the same caves, which was later found to be a 96 per cent match for Covid-19, but must have diverged 40 years earlier.

However, the new theory suggests that the evolution from a virus such as RaTG13 could have occurred far more quickly inside the body of a miner.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...covid-19-may-have-evolved-chinese-mineworker/
 

flannel

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Iris

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Before my cousin's wife had the vaccine her doctor told her to take half an aspirin for 2 or 3 weeks after each morning as she has multiple health problems and she had no side effects.
I thought that was a good idea and did the same and didn't have any bad effects either.
 

EnolaGaia

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A preprint research paper widely cited as evidence COVID vaccines were unsafe has been retracted owing to a gross mistake in calculating the incidence of myocarditis following vaccination.
A Paper Linking COVID-19 Vaccines to High Risk of Myocarditis Has Been Withdrawn

A preprint study first uploaded to MedRxiv that claimed a 1 in 1,000 risk of contracting myocarditis from a COVID-19 vaccination has been withdrawn due to miscalculations.

MedRxiv is a website that publishes studies that have yet to be peer-reviewed, according to Reuters.

The study was first published on September 16 and conducted by researchers at The University of Ottawa Heart Institute. It was widely used to promote the idea that the COVID-19 vaccine is unsafe for use.

However, the study has been retracted due to a miscalculation, Reuters reported.

The rate of myocarditis – the inflammation of the heart muscle – was calculated by dividing the number of COVID-19 vaccines in Ottawa by the number of incidences of the heart condition.

By their calculations, the risk of myocarditis was 1 in 1,000 or 0.1 percent.

However, the numbers used by the study were wrong. ...

As a result of this miscalculation, the study was withdrawn on September 24, with the researchers saying in a statement: "Our reported incidence appeared vastly inflated by an incorrectly small denominator (i.e. number of doses administered over the time period of the study). We reviewed the data available at Open Ottawa and found that there had indeed been a major underestimation, with the actual number of administered doses being more than 800,000

"In order to avoid misleading either colleagues or the general public and press, we the authors unanimously wish to withdraw this paper on the grounds of incorrect incidence data," they added.

The University of Ottawa Heart Institute also issued a statement of apology for any misinformation being spread as a result of this study. ...
FULL STORY: https://www.sciencealert.com/study-...-inflammation-withdrawn-due-to-miscalculation
 

EnolaGaia

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Newly published survey research indicates roughly half the people who survive a COVID-19 infection will exhibit 'long COVID' symptoms for up to 6 months after initial recovery from the infection
How many people get 'long COVID?' More than half, researchers find

More than half of the 236 million people who have been diagnosed with COVID-19 worldwide since December 2019 will experience post-COVID symptoms—more commonly known as "long COVID"—up to six months after recovering, according to Penn State College of Medicine researchers. ...

Until recently, few studies have evaluated patients' health after recovering from the coronavirus. To better understand the short- and long-term health effects of the virus, the researchers examined worldwide studies involving unvaccinated patients who recovered from COVID-19. According to the findings, adults, as well as children, can experience several adverse health issues for six months or longer after recovering from COVID-19. ...

The researchers conducted a systematic review of 57 reports that included data from 250,351 unvaccinated adults and children who were diagnosed with COVID-19 from December 2019 through March 2021. ...

The researchers analyzed patients' health post-COVID during three intervals at one month (short-term), two to five months (intermediate-term) and six or more months (long-term).

According to the findings, survivors experienced an array of residual health issues associated with COVID-19. ... Overall, one in two survivors experienced long-term COVID manifestations. The rates remained largely constant from one month through six or more months after their initial illness. The rates remained largely constant from one month through six or more months after their initial illness. ...
FULL STORY: https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-10-people-covid.html

PUBLISHED REPORT:
Destin Groff et al.
Short-term and Long-term Rates of Postacute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 Infection: A Systematic Review
JAMA Netw Open (2021).
DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.28568
 

marhawkman

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hmm this reminds me of something I saw a while back that claimed that Covid could cause systemic changes by causing cells to de-specialize and re-specialize differently.

IIRC the only evidence was observations of samples in lab conditions, but it's a situation that is seemingly plausible as a reason for long Covid symptoms.
 

Lb8535

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Newly published survey research indicates roughly half the people who survive a COVID-19 infection will exhibit 'long COVID' symptoms for up to 6 months after initial recovery from the infection

FULL STORY: https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-10-people-covid.html

PUBLISHED REPORT:
Destin Groff et al.
Short-term and Long-term Rates of Postacute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 Infection: A Systematic Review
JAMA Netw Open (2021).
DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.28568
I am not at all denying the existence of long covid, but taking a larger view, this does not make the disease uniquely and specially horrible. Almost all of those who have recovered so far received absolutely no treatment aside from oxygen and perhaps strong anti-inflammatories, so the disease ran its course while medical personnel did what they could to keep the body functioning. Many diseases that we now have treatments, and vaccines, for also have serious long effects. Scarlet fever, mumps, measles, smallpox and other illnesses all used to cause long term if not permanent disabilities. The flu still does. Since vaccination and the availability of treatment are widespread we rarely see them now. Hopefully covid will move to their status as treatments are discovered that limit the time the virus is active in the body.
 

Naughty_Felid

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Covid-19 may have evolved nine years ago in a Chinese mineworker, US expert claims​

Samples of a miner’s puzzling disease were sent to researchers in Wuhan for study, from where they may have escaped into the population.

Dr Latham says the emergence of the Alpha variant in Kent last Autumn proves that the virus can make "strange evolutionary leaps" and quickly develop large numbers of mutations when inside an individual for a long time.

Back in 2012, six miners who were shovelling bat guano in the Tongguan mineshaft in Mojiang, Yunnan, became seriously ill with a pneumonia-like illness that bore a striking similarity to Covid-19. [Three sadly died.]

Just a year after the deaths, Wuhan scientists discovered a virus named RaTG13 in the same caves, which was later found to be a 96 per cent match for Covid-19, but must have diverged 40 years earlier.

However, the new theory suggests that the evolution from a virus such as RaTG13 could have occurred far more quickly inside the body of a miner.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...covid-19-may-have-evolved-chinese-mineworker/

Not the 98% match needed though, (please correct me, anyone, if that's not the expected percentage), May have been altered though?
 

uair01

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From Rory Sutherland on Twitter:
The Unvaccinated May Not Be Who You Think https://nytimes.com/2021/10/15/opinion/covid-vaccines-unvaccinated.html?smid=tw-share… Very good article overall. But this is especially interesting. The often-overlooked banal. As a thought experiment, consider how much more likely you might be to be hesitant if the injection was made in your eye.

1634492602717.png
 

kamalktk

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Almost all of those who have recovered so far received absolutely no treatment aside from oxygen and perhaps strong anti-inflammatories, so the disease ran its course while medical personnel did what they could to keep the body functioning.
The idea that the medical personnel did nothing, other than keep the patient alive until the patient could keep themselves alive, seems unusual.....
 

Lb8535

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The idea that the medical personnel did nothing, other than keep the patient alive until the patient could keep themselves alive, seems unusual.....
Not if there are no resources for you to do anything else. They gave oxygen in various forms, tried out anti-inflammatories, tried all the antibiotics and anti-virals already in use. Actually the Chinese had gone through that stage before so many people outside of China were infected. Once someone noticed the effects on the circulatory system they began giving blood-thinner. All sorts of things were being tried in academic medical centers but thinking back to 2020, only monoclonal antibodies helped in some situations and that was not available universally. There are other diseases on which no known drug works - tetanus and rabies come to mind for example. That's why the recent announcement of an anti-viral that works specifically on the forms of covid around now was so important. Once the vaccine situation was under control, I'm sure the big companies all threw their resources into the equally profitable area of treatment.
 

Beresford

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There are other diseases on which no known drug works - tetanus and rabies come to mind for example.
Maybe it's not a thing in the US, but I was administered a tetanus vaccination when I was 14. Didn't do me any harm, particularly after I stood on some manky glass about three years later.
 

EnolaGaia

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Maybe it's not a thing in the US, but I was administered a tetanus vaccination when I was 14. ...
Tetanus vaccinations (and booster shots every so many years) were standard fare during my childhood and early adulthood (USA; 1950s - 1970s).
 

kamalktk

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If you are a scientist who has given media interviews abut Covid, you become a target for people.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02741-x

"A survey by Nature of more than 300 scientists who have given media interviews about COVID-19 — many of whom had also commented about the pandemic on social media — has found wide experience of harassment or abuse; 15% said they had received death threats (see ‘Negative impacts’)."
 

Lb8535

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Tetanus vaccinations (and booster shots every so many years) were standard fare during my childhood and early adulthood (USA; 1950s - 1970s).
Yes, my doc still reminds me to get one every 10 years. Because if I get tetanus there is no cure. This may just be a rural thing but it's a good idea for all.
 
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marhawkman

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The idea that the medical personnel did nothing, other than keep the patient alive until the patient could keep themselves alive, seems unusual.....
The overall goal of medical treatment is to prevent the disease from harming or killing the patient. How that works is varied, but simply preventing harm to the patient is often all the treatment needed.
 

Ogdred Weary

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From Rory Sutherland on Twitter:
The Unvaccinated May Not Be Who You Think https://nytimes.com/2021/10/15/opinion/covid-vaccines-unvaccinated.html?smid=tw-share… Very good article overall. But this is especially interesting. The often-overlooked banal. As a thought experiment, consider how much more likely you might be to be hesitant if the injection was made in your eye.

View attachment 46775

They can give it to those people wrapped in a bit of ham, like you do with dog medicine.
 

GNC

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If you are a scientist who has given media interviews abut Covid, you become a target for people.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02741-x

"A survey by Nature of more than 300 scientists who have given media interviews about COVID-19 — many of whom had also commented about the pandemic on social media — has found wide experience of harassment or abuse; 15% said they had received death threats (see ‘Negative impacts’)."

This has been WAY out of hand for years, and in the UK we may be finally waking up to it given recent events, but it's become so absurdly easy to send death threats that it's now a normal state of affairs for thousands and thousands of people online. It's like giving people a voice has turned them violently, aggressively insane, and it's just accepted.
 

marhawkman

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This has been WAY out of hand for years, and in the UK we may be finally waking up to it given recent events, but it's become so absurdly easy to send death threats that it's now a normal state of affairs for thousands and thousands of people online. It's like giving people a voice has turned them violently, aggressively insane, and it's just accepted.
Enh, as one person put it, "Anonymity means people will do things they wouldn't otherwise do because they know those actions should have consequences."
 

charliebrown

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The Delta Sub Varient AY.4.2 has been found in the UK and the U.S.

It has been called Delta on steroids being 25% more catchable.
 
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