Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): The Disease & Its Spread (Per Se)

Lb8535

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3 items on BBC site today. I think this fits on this thread but it can be moved if more suitable elsewhere.

Firstly, bearing in mind that accusations were levelled against people of them being 'anti-vax' for suggesting that there needs to be more research done as there appeared to be a link between some vaccinations and an increase in cases of thrombosis.....
"Trigger of rare blood clots with AstraZeneca jab found by scientists
The team - in Cardiff and the US - have shown in exquisite detail how a protein in the blood is attracted to a key component of the vaccine.
They think this kicks off a chain reaction, involving the immune system, that can culminate in dangerous clots."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59418123

Then we see this, that seems more like a sales pitch for the company than advice on necessity.
"People will be likely to need to have annual Covid vaccinations for many years to come, the head of Pfizer has told the BBC
Dr Albert Bourla said he thought this would be needed to maintain a "very high level of protection"."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59488848

Which then also seems to be confirmed by the report that....
As we've been reporting, the UK government has ordered another 114m vaccine doses, which will be delivered in 2022 and 2023.
The deals are for 60m additional doses of the Moderna vaccine and 54m more Pfizer/BioNTech doses.
It's important to note that these are not doses for the current booster programme - rather, they are jabs that could be used next winter and beyond.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-59501192

Sorry but the cynic in me sees;
AZ - bad
Pfizer - good - need more
UK - buys more Pfizer but not AZ
On #1 if you read the article, it mentions as was also reported in the US using - you know - actual data, that the incidence of unexpected thrombosis is higher among those infected than those vaccinated (who are not sick enough to seek medical attention - always the wrench in the data for covid.)
 

Lb8535

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Lets not be so sanguine about Omicron .

New data shows that the Omicron wave is much steeper than the Delta wave that hit South Africa - and hospitalisations are now rising in Gauteng province.

Don't be distracted by headlines saying the Omicron variant might be less deadly than Delta. More worrying pictures are starting to emerge from South Africa.

And here's two of them.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...iant-could-be-real-cause-for-concern-12484064
Don't be distracted by this one either. The data in the article is much more granular than the headline and still comes to the conclusion that "we don't know."
 

Trevp666

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On #1 if you read the article, it mentions as was also reported in the US using - you know - actual data, that the incidence of unexpected thrombosis is higher among those infected than those vaccinated (who are not sick enough to seek medical attention - always the wrench in the data for covid.)
I thought they were only testing blood samples from vaccinated people to see why vaccines were producing unexpected clotting.
 

Lb8535

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I thought they were only testing blood samples from vaccinated people to see why vaccines were producing unexpected clotting.
They did. The data is however being interpreted (possibly only by the press) as a reason to change the vaccination program. In order to come to this decision, the data from this study has to be compared to what happened to a group the same size, same ages, same underlying conditions, etc. who were diagnosed with covid, how many suffered the same condition. You need a comparable control group.
 

Trevp666

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They did. The data is however being interpreted (possibly only by the press) as a reason to change the vaccination program. In order to come to this decision, the data from this study has to be compared to what happened to a group the same size, same ages, same underlying conditions, etc. who were diagnosed with covid, how many suffered the same condition. You need a comparable control group.
In that case I don't see how a comparison can be made between blood samples of vaccinated and non-vaccinated if no samples specifically from non-vaccinated were actually tested. Okay, make an interpretation but don't aver that it equates to actual data, surely?
Maybe I'm misunderstanding it but, whatever, though. Seems like a lot of less-than-rigorous testing and data gets nailed as being 'hard science' when it also incorporates an element of 'a doctor said'.
And not just currently.
IIRC There was lots of evidence of medical research relying on previously 'peer reviewed' stuff that was eventually proved to be a product of a self-perpetuating system which was being used to create a constant revenue stream of research funds/grants in 'the far east' for unnecessary or unprovable ongoing research , when the 'peer reviewed' stuff was later proven to be basically just 'made up', but toys got thrown from prams by those in the field for suggesting that they were essentially just 'milking the system'.
So also allowing 'the press' to sprinkle on a layer of interpretation wouldn't help, lol.
 

Starry

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I thought they were only testing blood samples from vaccinated people to see why vaccines were producing unexpected clotting.
Don't know about the report you quoted but a European calculation of thrombosis actually found there was less thrombosis in AZ vaccinated patients than in the general population, indicating it might even protect (or just have been a quirk in limited data). Also, the link was clarified a year ago between extremely rare thrombosis and AZ by, amongst others, the EU. It's the reason that's been identified. Without AZ, the death toll would have been far far higher than the tiny number of AZ issues. Saying AZ is bad because of a rare disease is like being against parachutes because they can become entangled around your throat.
IIRC There was lots of evidence of medical research relying on previously 'peer reviewed' stuff that was eventually proved to be a product of a self-perpetuating system which was being used to create a constant revenue stream of research funds/grants in 'the far east' for unnecessary or unprovable ongoing research , when the 'peer reviewed' stuff was later proven to be basically just 'made up', but toys got thrown from prams by those in the field for suggesting that they were essentially just 'milking the system'.
Ever submitted a paper for a respectable peer-reviewed journal? Thought not. Your lack of scientific knowledge is all the way through these posts.
 

Trevp666

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Don't know about the report you quoted
The reports I quoted were Astra-Zeneca research they did themselves on their own vaccines here in the UK and in the US.
Ever submitted a paper for a respectable peer-reviewed journal?
No, but that doesn't give you a reason to be insulting to my intelligence, thank you.
I doubt whether you have ever built a car but I'm sure you're happy to drive one.
 

Starry

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There is a general tone expected here and it doesn't extend to snark and snideness.
Then how about this: peer-review is the entire basis for modern science. Most articles submitted are rejected ( approximately 25% make it). I've had articles rejected myself, and also rejected most manuscripts I've refereed, even when they are from people in higher positions of power. Manuscripts are sent to scientists across the globe, rather than their mates in the next lab (sometimes the journal will stipulate the referees cannot even be from the same continents).

There are low quality journals, known as predatory publishers. Not only do these not count towards funding applications, they tend now to have a negative impact on success (e.g. there might be stipulations saying a range of publications from high quality journals and none from elsewhere).

I also would not comment on how to build a car, as I don't know enough about that to comment. I'm not sure of the relevance. Science, however, does need defending in these post-truth times.
 

Yithian

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Then how about this: peer-review is the entire basis for modern science. Most articles submitted are rejected ( approximately 25% make it). I've had articles rejected myself, and also rejected most manuscripts I've refereed, even when they are from people in higher positions of power. Manuscripts are sent to scientists across the globe, rather than their mates in the next lab (sometimes the journal will stipulate the referees cannot even be from the same continents).

There are low quality journals, known as predatory publishers. Not only do these not count towards funding applications, they tend now to have a negative impact on success (e.g. there might be stipulations saying a range of publications from high quality journals and none from elsewhere).

I also would not comment on how to build a car, as I don't know enough about that to comment. I'm not sure of the relevance. Science, however, does need defending in these post-truth times.

giphy.gif
 

Trevp666

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...was my initial qualifier - I did read that the 'peer review' system was being, er, 'taken advantage of' by a certain sector within scientific academia.
It wasn't an attack on all 'peer review' in general.
But thank you, Starry, for you more considered comment, I can understand where you're coming from there.
 

Sharon Hill

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Man uses fake arm to get COVID shot
https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/03/europe/italy-man-silicone-arm-vaccine-intl-scli/index.html

A 50-year-old man tried to pass off a silicone arm as his own at a Covid-19 vaccination clinic in northern Italy, in an attempt to get a vaccine certificate without actually getting inoculated.
The deception was spotted by a nurse, Filippa Bua, as she was about to administer the vaccine in Biella, Piedmont on Thursday. Bua told CNN she noticed something odd about the arm.
 

Lb8535

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In that case I don't see how a comparison can be made between blood samples of vaccinated and non-vaccinated if no samples specifically from non-vaccinated were actually tested. Okay, make an interpretation but don't aver that it equates to actual data, surely?
Maybe I'm misunderstanding it but, whatever, though. Seems like a lot of less-than-rigorous testing and data gets nailed as being 'hard science' when it also incorporates an element of 'a doctor said'.
And not just currently.
IIRC There was lots of evidence of medical research relying on previously 'peer reviewed' stuff that was eventually proved to be a product of a self-perpetuating system which was being used to create a constant revenue stream of research funds/grants in 'the far east' for unnecessary or unprovable ongoing research , when the 'peer reviewed' stuff was later proven to be basically just 'made up', but toys got thrown from prams by those in the field for suggesting that they were essentially just 'milking the system'.
So also allowing 'the press' to sprinkle on a layer of interpretation wouldn't help, lol.
Yes I think you and I are in what my old boss used to call "violent agreement." You can test many blood samples and write excellent papers but without something to compare the resulting data with to provide context you can't use the data as a basis for any conclusion.
 

Vardoger

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The Delta variant has run amok in Norway and we got around 3500-4500 cases every day. Just waiting for Omicron to make it 15000 cases every day.
 

charliebrown

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A preliminary South African study showed that omicron is the predominant strain and very contagious.

If one has recovered from the coronavirus, this person’s chances of being infected with the omicron is very high instead of being reinfected with the Delta.
 

Yithian

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A preliminary South African study showed that omicron is the predominant strain and very contagious.

If one has recovered from the coronavirus, this person’s chances of being infected with the omicron is very high instead of being reinfected with the Delta.

The whatever-million-dollar question, however, is still unanswered:

Is it more deadly in itself, or is it only a problem as the enhanced transmissibility it generates creates more cases, a small percentage of which will be deadly?
 

EnolaGaia

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A Belgian zoo has discovered the first known COVID-19 infections in hippos.
Belgian zoo says its 2 very runny-nosed hippos have COVID-19

A Belgian zoo said Friday that a pair of hippopotamuses in its care are in isolation after testing positive for COVID-19, possibly the first time ever such animals have caught the disease.

Belgium’s national veterinary lab has confirmed that Antwerp Zoo’s two hippos — Imani, aged 14, and 41-year-old Hermien — contracted COVID-19. It’s unclear how they caught it. Both the giant semiaquatic herbivores are well, apart from exceptionally runny noses. Keepers have tightened virus restrictions around the zoo.

“To my knowledge, it’s the first recorded contamination among this species. Throughout the world this virus has mostly been seen in great apes and felines,” Antwerp Zoo vet Francis Vercammen said.

How the hippos got the disease remains a mystery. ...
FULL STORY: https://apnews.com/article/coronavi...alth-belgium-81a60643d8f2c84b29fb610124b22211
 

Trevp666

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I'm not surprised - have you ever tried to get a hippo to wear a mask?
Also, I feel sorry for whoever had to conduct the swabbing for the PCR test, that must have been a challenge.
 

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Vardoger

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charliebrown

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If I am interpreting internet articles correctly, omicron to make itself more friendly looking to your body, has attached a piece of common cold virus to itself to fool your body’s defenses.

This omicron has a mind of it’s own to hunt you down.
 

charliebrown

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“ It is too late to stop it “, claims epidemiologist Mark Woolhouse at the University of Edinburgh stating omicron went from 86 cases to 246 cases in 24 hours.

Also true in the U.S. as omicron spreads to 16 states quickly.
 

EnolaGaia

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If I am interpreting internet articles correctly, omicron to make itself more friendly looking to your body, has attached a piece of common cold virus to itself to fool your body’s defenses. ...

The COVID virus is suspected to have picked up this mutation during replication in a host who was infected with the common cold's coronavirus HCoV-229E at the same time.

Researchers from Nference, a Cambridge, Mass.-based firm that analyzes biomedical information, sequenced omicron and found a snippet of genetic code that is also present in a virus that can bring about a cold. They say this particular mutation could have occurred in a host simultaneously infected by SARS-CoV-2, also known as the novel coronavirus, and the HCoV-229E coronavirus, which can cause the common cold. The shared genetic code with HCoV-229E has not been detected in other novel coronavirus variants, the scientists said.
The study is in preprint and has not been peer-reviewed.
SOURCE: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/12/04/omicron-coronavirus-transmissible-cold-variant/
 

Ringo

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If I am interpreting internet articles correctly, omicron to make itself more friendly looking to your body, has attached a piece of common cold virus to itself to fool your body’s defenses.

This omicron has a mind of it’s own to hunt you down.

And it steals babies.
 

charliebrown

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It seems the news suggests that omicron could be more like the common cold.
 

Yithian

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A study of the current figures concerning Omicron with some major conclusions. May interest @EnolaGaia - or not!

His conclusions:

"I’d be surprised if any of these were wrong."
  1. Omicron spreads far more rapidly than Delta and is going to take over.
  2. This will come at us fast. Omicron will be the majority strain by the end of January. This happening by end of year is on the table.
  3. Omicron re-infects those who have already been sick, or breaks through to those who have been vaccinated, much more than Delta.
  4. Previous infection continues to protect against severe disease, hospitalization and death.
  5. Omicron doesn’t cause substantially more severe disease than Delta when it infects you, but we don’t know if it causes less severe disease yet, our evidence is ambiguous.
  6. Omicron cases on average are much more mild because there will be a much higher percentage of re-infections and breakthrough cases, which are highly protected against severe disease.
  7. The big peak is probably within a few months, so you don’t have time to wait for an Omicron-targeted shot. The current shots will still work against severe disease, so strongly consider getting vaccinated or boosted if you can.
  8. The best thing we can do to minimize the harm Omicron causes is to ramp up production of therapeutics, especially Paxlovid, as rapidly as possible, along with the necessary tests and other logistics to get the treatments to people in time to matter. The goal is mitigation at this point, not prevention.
  9. There is going to be a period early in 2022 when there are quite a lot of Omicron cases, such that it will be difficult to remain uninfected and it will likely be difficult to get any kind of medical treatment at a hospital. Be ready.
  10. Also be ready in case of lockdowns and other government restrictions, especially if you live in Europe where they’ve shown a willingness to use them. And if you’re immunocompromised or otherwise at high enough risk you need to be sure to not get Omicron, then the price of success is getting super paranoid soon and lock down hard, for at least several months.
Working & Close Analysis:
https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/12/06/omicron-post-4/
 

charliebrown

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The UK Health Security Agency has said omicron in the UK is doubling every 2.5 days.

There will be a million cases by the end of the month competing with the delta.
 
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