Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): The Disease & Its Spread (Per Se)

Krepostnoi

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As another piece of anecdata about the early spread, I had a long period of coughing late last year, and about a week of fever combined with debilitating fatigue. The cough persisted afterwards for quite some time, and I eventually went to a doctor about it. Anyway, I was rooting about for a particular piece of paper last night, and came across the chest x-ray I had taken then. I'm not a medical doctor, so I don't know how to interpret the image, but the interesting thing for me is the date: 31 October. And, remember, this was after weeks of coughing - I've just tracked down an email to my boss that says I was really ill on October 4 - I think that was after the week I took off due to the fever.

Now, of course, I can't be sure this was caused by Covid-19, but I'd never experienced anything like that before. I was, and still am, based in Saigon.

Incidentally, Vietnam has still to record a single death from Covid-19 (although there is a British pilot who has been ill for weeks, now, and is in a very grave condition: reports say he will need a lung transplant, poor bloke.) The total reported cases is in the low 200s. That is a tremendous achievement for such a relatively poor country, and it should lead to a lot of questions being asked of richer countries such as the UK, USA and Russia as to just how they allowed the situation to get so bad. The lockdown here has effectively been removed (although I think cinemas are still closed). I'm back teaching in-person in the classroom, and we have even been told we don't need to wear masks in the classroom. To all intents and purposes, life is back to normal. (Unless you count not being able to enter the country under any but a very limited set of circumstances.) It certainly seems to support the argument that locking down early and severely is an effective strategy, and in our case at least seems to allow for a relatively rapid easing of restrictions.
 

Cochise

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As another piece of anecdata about the early spread, I had a long period of coughing late last year, and about a week of fever combined with debilitating fatigue. The cough persisted afterwards for quite some time, and I eventually went to a doctor about it. Anyway, I was rooting about for a particular piece of paper last night, and came across the chest x-ray I had taken then. I'm not a medical doctor, so I don't know how to interpret the image, but the interesting thing for me is the date: 31 October. And, remember, this was after weeks of coughing - I've just tracked down an email to my boss that says I was really ill on October 4 - I think that was after the week I took off due to the fever.

Now, of course, I can't be sure this was caused by Covid-19, but I'd never experienced anything like that before. I was, and still am, based in Saigon.

Incidentally, Vietnam has still to record a single death from Covid-19 (although there is a British pilot who has been ill for weeks, now, and is in a very grave condition: reports say he will need a lung transplant, poor bloke.) The total reported cases is in the low 200s. That is a tremendous achievement for such a relatively poor country, and it should lead to a lot of questions being asked of richer countries such as the UK, USA and Russia as to just how they allowed the situation to get so bad. The lockdown here has effectively been removed (although I think cinemas are still closed). I'm back teaching in-person in the classroom, and we have even been told we don't need to wear masks in the classroom. To all intents and purposes, life is back to normal. (Unless you count not being able to enter the country under any but a very limited set of circumstances.) It certainly seems to support the argument that locking down early and severely is an effective strategy, and in our case at least seems to allow for a relatively rapid easing of restrictions.

As I've probably said before there were three possible strategies. All the strategies have worked in some places round the world, and I think the common denominator is deciding what to do very early and then sticking to it.

The only worry with the lockdown approach is that it might just postpone the problem - although there is not much evidence of that so far, hopefully it's not the case.
 
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Cochise

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In case the above looks inconsistent with my other posts about lockdown, my argument with the UK's lockdown was that it was imposed after track and trace and social distancing had been tried, so there already were far too many infected people. In addition the change of direction was made too early to see if the social distancing had been effective. It looked to me - still looks - like panic. And of course based on - lets be polite and say 'dubious' - advice. The same panic caused the hospitals to send infected patients to care homes. I won't even start on the constantly changing and rarely achieved testing targets.

I'll re-iterate and say I think the original reason for the UK lockdown - that our NHS was not prepared - had some justification, even if I disagree with it. What is distressing me is the thought of the consequences of the very prolonged lockdown which now looks inevitable. I haven't much doubt that when the dust settles the UK will be seen to have performed distinctly worse than other comparable countries. What were we doing in February to prepare ourselves? It seems like 'nothing'.

And I'm still incredulous that NO measures were taken to try and vet international travellers. There's absolutely no point in doing it now.
 
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Mythopoeika

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And I'm still incredulous that NO measures were taken to try and vet international travellers. There's absolutely no point in doing it now.
Indeed.
 

Cochise

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WHO now admits that Covid19 may never go and could become just another endemic virus.
In other words, it cannot be stopped and maybe hanging on for some ultimate vaccine and a degree of herd immunity is the only way out of the pandemic.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-52643682

Uh-huh. As sensible people were saying at the start, I seem to recall. That's what happens with most viruses - we only have vaccines for a few. But - we won't know who was right and wrong for at least a year. It could die away like SARS and MERS - but if it doesn't it's so widespread now I expect we'll just have to get used to it.
 

Comfortably Numb

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This is the Health Service Journal announcement:

The alert was issued to GPs in North London by their clinical commissioning group. It has been sent to doctors more widely and is confirmed in a separate “urgent alert” issued last night by the Paediatric Intensive Care Society.

The alert to GPs, marked “significant alert” states: “Please refer children presenting with these symptoms as a matter of urgency.”

Both messages said: “The cases have in common overlapping features of toxic shock syndrome and atypical Kawasaki Disease with blood parameters consistent with severe COVID-19 in children.
Looks like there is definitely some substance to this, although thankfully, exceptionally rare:

Coronavirus: Children affected by rare Kawasaki-like disease

Source: BBC News
Date: 14 May, 2020

Scores of UK and US children have been affected by a rare inflammatory disease linked to coronavirus.

In a tiny number of children it can cause serious complications, with some needing intensive care.

Up to 100 children in the UK have been affected and studies suggest the same reaction is being seen in children elsewhere in Europe.

It is likely to be caused by a delayed immune response to the virus which looks like Kawasaki disease.

In April, NHS doctors were told to look out for a rare but dangerous reaction in children.

This was prompted by eight children becoming ill in London, including a 14-year-old who died.

They all had similar symptoms when they were admitted to Evelina London Children's Hospital, including a high fever, rash, red eyes, swelling and general pain.

Most of the children had no major lung or breathing problems, although seven were put on a ventilator to help improve heart and circulation issues.

Doctors are describing it as a "new phenomenon" similar to Kawasaki disease shock syndrome - a rare condition that mainly affects children under the age of five. Symptoms include a rash, swollen glands in the neck and dry and cracked lips.

[...]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52648557
 

Trevp666

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Todays (14/5/20) NHS England 'new deaths' figures released.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

There are some interesting statistical points as 'new' deaths being reported continues to drop significantly;
I expect that before this coming weekend our daily totals will be down to tens instead of hundreds.

Todays figures and notable statistics;
207 reported 'new' deaths today;
Day-on-day totals (for those days with complete figures) are dropping by approx 10%.
We are still often seeing deaths which occurred several weeks ago only just now being reported.
135 of the 202 trusts today reported 0 new deaths (That's 67%)
16 of the 'new' deaths reported today came from University Hospitals of Leicester NHS Trust and the oldest of these was from May 6th
22 of the total 'new' deaths are reports which are over a week old.
The oldest reported 'new' death is from Wiltshire Health & Care - Savernake Community Hospital, from April 4th (many weeks ago - not sure how that is classified as 'new'?)
Just 2 trusts reported 10 or more 'new' deaths, accounting for 26 of todays total (that's 0.99% of the trusts accounting for 12.5% of the total)
Todays deaths by age group;
0-19 = 0
20-39 = 3
40-59 = 12
60-78 = 73
80+ = 19

We are well beyond the 'peak' now, which occurred around the 4th - 8th April.
Wednesday this week (yesterday) showing 47 - however, as the daily figure is communicated to NHS England at 5pm each day the total for the whole of yesterday is not complete.

Below I show my running totals for;
Existing deaths + New deaths = New totals
(since Thursday April 2nd, the date I started logging the numbers officially released).

T 811+0=811
F 615+0=615
S 1105+1=1106 (Saturday April 4th)
S 1094+0=1094
M 940+0=940
T 808+0=808
W 888+1=889
T 777+1=778
F 733+0=733
S 770+0=770 (April 11th)
S 712+2=714
M 688+1=689
T 642+0=642
W 681+1=682
T 628+1=629
F 603+1=604
S 567+0=567 (April 18th)
S 518+0=518
M 553+1=554
T 479+0=479
W 484+2=486
T 444+1=445
F 429+0=429
S 383+1=384 (April 25th)
S 373+0=373
M 339+0=339
T 336+2=338
W 317+0=317
T 299+2=301
F 296+2=298
S 260+0=260 (May 2nd)
S 240+1=241
M 245+0=245
T 240+1=241
W 241+3=244
T 229+4=233
F 188+5=193
S 172+12=184 (May 9th)
S 162+12=174
M 116+20=136
T 40+82=122
W -----------47

(Figures supplied by NHS England date back to the beginning of March when the UK recorded it's first day with more than 50 deaths.
The figures released daily include deaths from the day on which they happened, so can be from any previous day NOT from just within the past 24 hours)
 

Lb8535

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In case the above looks inconsistent with my other posts about lockdown, my argument with the UK's lockdown was that it was imposed after track and trace and social distancing had been tried, so there already were far too many infected people. In addition the change of direction was made too early to see if the social distancing had been effective. It looked to me - still looks - like panic. And of course based on - lets be polite and say 'dubious' - advice. The same panic caused the hospitals to send infected patients to care homes. I won't even start on the constantly changing and rarely achieved testing targets.

I'll re-iterate and say I think the original reason for the UK lockdown - that our NHS was not prepared - had some justification, even if I disagree with it. What is distressing me is the thought of the consequences of the very prolonged lockdown which now looks inevitable. I haven't much doubt that when the dust settles the UK will be seen to have performed distinctly worse than other comparable countries. What were we doing in February to prepare ourselves? It seems like 'nothing'.

And I'm still incredulous that NO measures were taken to try and vet international travellers. There's absolutely no point in doing it now.

I think that lockdown can be useful response - the goal is to keep everyone in one place for the normal lifespan of the virus (modified clause to forestall of of you who will respond that the virus lives essentially indefinitely when cold and frozen). Lockdown means you don't go out of the house. Period. In China they managed this by having suitably protected people delivering food. I imagine you ate gratefully what they delivered. They also transported people showing symptoms to a quarantine facility. After X days, I would imagine everyone is tested say twice because the downside risk is so high, and anyone without antibodies is also transported to the separate facility. During this period people are given a portion of the funds they would normally have earned. They're not going to be spending much aside from rent and utilities. Essential workers (which would not include amazon delivery people) would have to be tested daily. This scheme would have cost the western countries significantly less than what they just spent. Of course we'll never do it because our citizens are not used to being told No.

So yes, it will continue as a flu-type epidemic with the background of well-researched treatments and a vaccine. I do hope that places like New Zealand are putting all arrivals through a supervised quarantine and testing, and that includes, especially, the general aviation arrivals.

And those of us who have an infinite downsiide risk will be in our homes for fucking ever. I was hoping to get to the UK to walk some Roman roads. Not gonna happen.
 

Cochise

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I think that lockdown can be useful response - the goal is to keep everyone in one place for the normal lifespan of the virus (modified clause to forestall of of you who will respond that the virus lives essentially indefinitely when cold and frozen). Lockdown means you don't go out of the house. Period. In China they managed this by having suitably protected people delivering food. I imagine you ate gratefully what they delivered. They also transported people showing symptoms to a quarantine facility. After X days, I would imagine everyone is tested say twice because the downside risk is so high, and anyone without antibodies is also transported to the separate facility. During this period people are given a portion of the funds they would normally have earned. They're not going to be spending much aside from rent and utilities. Essential workers (which would not include amazon delivery people) would have to be tested daily. This scheme would have cost the western countries significantly less than what they just spent. Of course we'll never do it because our citizens are not used to being told No.

So yes, it will continue as a flu-type epidemic with the background of well-researched treatments and a vaccine. I do hope that places like New Zealand are putting all arrivals through a supervised quarantine and testing, and that includes, especially, the general aviation arrivals.

And those of us who have an infinite downsiide risk will be in our homes for fucking ever. I was hoping to get to the UK to walk some Roman roads. Not gonna happen.
Lockdown clearly has worked in some countries, and not in others. It has to go hand in hand with monitoring travellers, and it has to start early. It may be that it was never going to work in the UK because of the sheer numbers travelling in February / March. I don't think the Kiwis or the Aussies are any more keen on being told 'No' than the Brits.

As I said above, moral seems at this moment to be to choose your strategy early and stick to it.
 

EnolaGaia

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Pangolins are repeatedly cited as possible intermediate hosts through which COVID-19 originated / progressed from bats to humans. This new research fails to support that hypothesis. However ...

I'm confused as to why this Chinese research team conducted their study using Malayan pangolins rather than the pangolin species native to southern China (and hence more likely to have served as intermediate hosts for something that erupted in Wuhan).
New Genetic Analysis Shows COVID-19 Coronavirus Did Not Spill Over From Pangolins (Scaly Anteaters)

Mammals known as scaly anteaters are natural hosts of coronaviruses, but are not likely the direct source of the recent outbreak in humans, according to a study published today (May 14, 2020) in the open-access journal PLOS Pathogens by Jinping Chen of the Guangdong Institute of Applied Biological Resources, and colleagues. ...

Last December, an outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) emerged in Wuhan, China. Recent studies have shown that severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) — the virus that causes COVID-19 — could have originated in bats. But SARS-CoV-2 may have spilled over to humans from another intermediate host, and the source of this virus is still unknown. ... In the new study, Chen and colleagues examined whether pangolins could be an intermediate host for SARS-CoV-2.

The researchers assembled the whole genome of a coronavirus identified in two groups of sick Malayan pangolins. The results suggest that the pangolin coronavirus is genetically associated with SARS-CoV-2 and a group of bat coronaviruses. But further analysis suggests that SARS-CoV-2 did not arise directly from the pangolin coronavirus. ...

The authors state, “Pangolins could be natural hosts of Betacoronaviruses with an unknown potential to infect humans. However, our study does not support that SARS-CoV-2 evolved directly from the pangolin-CoV.” ...

FULL STORY: https://scitechdaily.com/genetic-an...ot-spill-over-from-pangolins-scaly-anteaters/
 

EnolaGaia

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Ulalume

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As another piece of anecdata about the early spread, I had a long period of coughing late last year, and about a week of fever combined with debilitating fatigue. The cough persisted afterwards for quite some time, and I eventually went to a doctor about it. Anyway, I was rooting about for a particular piece of paper last night, and came across the chest x-ray I had taken then. I'm not a medical doctor, so I don't know how to interpret the image, but the interesting thing for me is the date: 31 October. And, remember, this was after weeks of coughing - I've just tracked down an email to my boss that says I was really ill on October 4 - I think that was after the week I took off due to the fever.

Now, of course, I can't be sure this was caused by Covid-19, but I'd never experienced anything like that before. I was, and still am, based in Saigon.

Incidentally, Vietnam has still to record a single death from Covid-19 (although there is a British pilot who has been ill for weeks, now, and is in a very grave condition: reports say he will need a lung transplant, poor bloke.) The total reported cases is in the low 200s. That is a tremendous achievement for such a relatively poor country, and it should lead to a lot of questions being asked of richer countries such as the UK, USA and Russia as to just how they allowed the situation to get so bad. The lockdown here has effectively been removed (although I think cinemas are still closed). I'm back teaching in-person in the classroom, and we have even been told we don't need to wear masks in the classroom. To all intents and purposes, life is back to normal. (Unless you count not being able to enter the country under any but a very limited set of circumstances.) It certainly seems to support the argument that locking down early and severely is an effective strategy, and in our case at least seems to allow for a relatively rapid easing of restrictions.


That's really interesting. I've read reports that it's believed to have emerged in October - perhaps it spread far faster than was generally believed.

I know that on Feb. 16, I suddenly developed one of the strangest illnesses I've ever had. Fever (which is rare for me) then painful sore throat, swollen glands (so much so that I could barely swallow) and I couldn't sleep for coughing. Then a nasty case of conjunctivitis. By Feb 26th I was having trouble breathing. At some point, I realized I couldn't taste anything, and not in the ordinary way that happens during a cold. Everything tasted like cardboard. These symptoms waxed and waned for more than 40 days. Just when I thought it was improving, it would worsen again. My husband came down with it, too - he went to the clinic but tested negative for flu.

These are all symptoms reported by people who've had covid- 19, but at the time I first became ill, no one was in the US was much worried about it at all. We only had a few confirmed cases then.
 

Ogdred Weary

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That's really interesting. I've read reports that it's believed to have emerged in October - perhaps it spread far faster than was generally believed.

I know that on Feb. 16, I suddenly developed one of the strangest illnesses I've ever had. Fever (which is rare for me) then painful sore throat, swollen glands (so much so that I could barely swallow) and I couldn't sleep for coughing. Then a nasty case of conjunctivitis. By Feb 26th I was having trouble breathing. At some point, I realized I couldn't taste anything, and not in the ordinary way that happens during a cold. Everything tasted like cardboard. These symptoms waxed and waned for more than 40 days. Just when I thought it was improving, it would worsen again. My husband came down with it, too - he went to the clinic but tested negative for flu.

These are all symptoms reported by people who've had covid- 19, but at the time I first became ill, no one was in the US was much worried about it at all. We only had a few confirmed cases then.

It does sound very much like you had it, was your or your husband's sense of smell effected at all? That seems to be quite common.
 

Ringo

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I wonder if Covid parties will be a thing - just like Pox Parties used to be?

Part of me kind of wants to get it, just to get it over with. Although I may have had a mild strain of it a few months ago.
 

Ulalume

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It does sound very much like you had it, was your or your husband's sense of smell effected at all? That seems to be quite common.

Yes, it was, though at the time we put this down to having allergies, as this happened during cedar season. The loss of taste was the really odd thing, though. It was just gone.
 

Ogdred Weary

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Yes, it was, though at the time we put this down to having allergies, as this happened during cedar season. The loss of taste was the really odd thing, though. It was just gone.

As a fully qualified Internet Expert (the best kind), I can say with 100% certainty that you had it.

I wonder if Covid parties will be a thing - just like Pox Parties used to be?

Part of me kind of wants to get it, just to get it over with. Although I may have had a mild strain of it a few months ago.

Quite, I'd prefer to get it out of the way too. It's likely we will all get it sooner or later.
 

Trevp666

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Todays (15/5/20) NHS England 'new deaths' figures released.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Todays figures and notable statistics;
186 reported 'new' deaths today;
Numbers dwindling away now.
Day-on-day totals (for those days with complete figures) are dropping by approx 10%.
We are still often seeing deaths which occurred several weeks ago only just now being reported.
132 of the 202 trusts today reported 0 new deaths (That's 65%)
No trust reported more than 10 deaths. No single trust stands out as reporting a greater number than any other.
18 of the total 'new' deaths are reports which are over a week old.
The oldest reported 'new' death is from Wiltshire Health and Care - Savernake Community Hospital, from April 10th (many weeks ago - not sure how that is classified as 'new'?)

Todays deaths by age group;
0-19 = 1
20-39 = 5
40-59 = 18
60-78 = 64
80+ = 98

We are well beyond the 'peak' now, which occurred around the 4th - 8th April.
Thursday this week (yesterday) showing 45 - however, as the daily figure is communicated to NHS England at 5pm each day the total for the whole of yesterday is not complete.

Below I show my running totals for;
Existing deaths + New deaths = New totals (If no 'new' to add then no calculation has been entered)
(since Thursday April 2nd, the date I started logging the numbers officially released).

T 811
F 615
S 1106 (Saturday April 4th)
S 1094
M 940
T 808
W 889
T 778
F 733+1=734
S 770 (April 11th)
S 714
M 689
T 642
W 682
T 629
F 604
S 567 (April 18th)
S 518
M 554+1=555
T 479
W 486
T 445
F 429+1=430
S 384 (April 25th)
S 373
M 339
T 338
W 317+1=318
T 301
F 298+1=299
S 260+3=263 (May 2nd)
S 241+1=242
M 245+1=246
T 241+2=243
W 244+2=246
T 233+4=237
F 193+2=195
S 184+2=186 (May 9th)
S 174+8=182
M 136+13=149
T 122+32=154
W 47+66=113
T -------------45

(Figures supplied by NHS England date back to the beginning of March when the UK recorded it's first day with more than 50 deaths.
The figures released daily include deaths from the day on which they happened, so can be from any previous day NOT from just within the past 24 hours)
 

Ogdred Weary

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Todays (15/5/20) NHS England 'new deaths' figures released.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Todays figures and notable statistics;
186 reported 'new' deaths today;
Numbers dwindling away now.
Day-on-day totals (for those days with complete figures) are dropping by approx 10%.
We are still often seeing deaths which occurred several weeks ago only just now being reported.
132 of the 202 trusts today reported 0 new deaths (That's 65%)
No trust reported more than 10 deaths. No single trust stands out as reporting a greater number than any other.
18 of the total 'new' deaths are reports which are over a week old.
The oldest reported 'new' death is from Wiltshire Health and Care - Savernake Community Hospital, from April 10th (many weeks ago - not sure how that is classified as 'new'?)

Todays deaths by age group;
0-19 = 1
20-39 = 5
40-59 = 18
60-78 = 64
80+ = 98

We are well beyond the 'peak' now, which occurred around the 4th - 8th April.
Thursday this week (yesterday) showing 45 - however, as the daily figure is communicated to NHS England at 5pm each day the total for the whole of yesterday is not complete.

Below I show my running totals for;
Existing deaths + New deaths = New totals (If no 'new' to add then no calculation has been entered)
(since Thursday April 2nd, the date I started logging the numbers officially released).

T 811
F 615
S 1106 (Saturday April 4th)
S 1094
M 940
T 808
W 889
T 778
F 733+1=734
S 770 (April 11th)
S 714
M 689
T 642
W 682
T 629
F 604
S 567 (April 18th)
S 518
M 554+1=555
T 479
W 486
T 445
F 429+1=430
S 384 (April 25th)
S 373
M 339
T 338
W 317+1=318
T 301
F 298+1=299
S 260+3=263 (May 2nd)
S 241+1=242
M 245+1=246
T 241+2=243
W 244+2=246
T 233+4=237
F 193+2=195
S 184+2=186 (May 9th)
S 174+8=182
M 136+13=149
T 122+32=154
W 47+66=113
T -------------45

(Figures supplied by NHS England date back to the beginning of March when the UK recorded it's first day with more than 50 deaths.
The figures released daily include deaths from the day on which they happened, so can be from any previous day NOT from just within the past 24 hours)

There were not zero deaths yesterday, your green line lied to me. Your line drawing is unreliable, do you have any conception of the economic and psychological damage you have caused to the forum?
 

Ringo

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Under 400 in Intensive care now in Sweden. The number of deaths are dropping to around 40-50 per day once the late reported ones come in.
Sweden 15:5.png
 

Trevp666

It was like that when I got here.........honest!!!
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There were not zero deaths yesterday, your green line lied to me. Your line drawing is unreliable, do you have any conception of the economic and psychological damage you have caused to the forum?

I can only apologise.
I've tried to tell the green line before about doing that, but does it listen? Does it bo****ks!
That being said though, I did add a caveat in a slightly later post in which I clarified that the green line was straight when in reality it should have been a slight curve, steeper initially, and then tapering off, as we predicted that there are unlikely to be any days when zero deaths occur going forward, we are more likely to see a continued daily number of cases in the 5 - 30 range for some few weeks.
So don't go splashing your cash on any exotic dancers holidays just yet.
 

Xanatic*

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In Sweden they will try treating people in pressurised chambers. Not in airplanes though.
 

Ogdred Weary

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I can only apologise.
I've tried to tell the green line before about doing that, but does it listen? Does it bo****ks!
That being said though, I did add a caveat in a slightly later post in which I clarified that the green line was straight when in reality it should have been a slight curve, steeper initially, and then tapering off, as we predicted that there are unlikely to be any days when zero deaths occur going forward, we are more likely to see a continued daily number of cases in the 5 - 30 range for some few weeks.
So don't go splashing your cash on any exotic dancers holidays just yet.

No, I am the Lowest Common Denominator and a Simple Believer, you have shaken my blind faith in authority figures to the core. If this is wrong, what else? The Earth isn't flat, it's one dimensional?
 

Trevp666

It was like that when I got here.........honest!!!
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You know about Santa Clause and the Tooth Fairy, right?
 

EnolaGaia

I knew the job was dangerous when I took it ...
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The rush to develop and deploy a vaccine continues, with authorities attempting to maintain some semblance of order and caution ...
NIH director: Large-scale vaccine testing expected by July

Having a COVID-19 vaccine by January is “a stretch goal,” but the head of the National Institutes of Health is gearing up for a master experiment to rapidly tell if any really work.

At least four or five possible vaccines “look pretty promising” and one or two will be ready to begin large-scale testing by July with others to follow soon, NIH Director Francis Collins told The Associated Press.

“Your big challenge now is to go big and everybody is about ready for that. And we want to be sure that happens in a coordinated way,” Collins said in an interview late Thursday.

The NIH in partnership with some of the world’s largest pharmaceutical companies is creating a master plan that vaccine makers can follow. Separately, the Trump administration is working on how to produce possible vaccines now, a huge gamble before anyone knows which ones will pan out. The goal is to have 300 million doses available to distribute to Americans by January.

Collins called it a “very bold plan ... a stretch goal if there ever was one,” but one he’s optimistic the science side can help speed.

But he added: “If we can get this vaccine out there even a day sooner than otherwise we might have, that’s going to matter to somebody.”

Despite all the emphasis on speed, Collins stressed that “no corners are going to be cut” on safety and scientists will be carefully looking for side effects.

Worldwide, about a dozen vaccine candidates are in the first stages of testing or poised to begin, small safety studies in people to look for obvious problems and whether the shots rev up the immune system. Among those getting the most attention are one created by the NIH and Moderna Inc., and a different type created by Britain’s Oxford University.

Current tests “are looking pretty good,” Collins said. “But until you put it into the real world and check it out you don’t really know. You can’t skip over that really, really hard part of testing this in thousands and thousands of people.” ...

FULL STORY: https://apnews.com/756e5b743058701c4a2ebefd0af1ade4
 

EnolaGaia

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The COVID-19 virus has now been found for the first time in the Rohingya refugee camps in Bangladesh. If the virus can't be contained, camp conditions are a recipe for epidemiological disaster.
1st COVID-19 case detected in Rohingya camps in Bangladesh

The first coronavirus case has been confirmed in the crowded camps for Rohingya refugees in southern Bangladesh, where more than 1 million are taking shelter.

The infected Rohingya and a local Bangladeshi who lives in the Cox’s Bazar district who also tested positive have been isolated, Mahbub Alam Talukder, the country’s refugee commissioner, said Thursday.

Teams have been activated to treat the patients as well as trace people they may have encountered, Louise Donovan, a spokeswoman for the U.N. refugee agency, told The Associated Press.

Nationwide, Bangladesh has confirmed 18,863 cases, including 283 fatalities. But the toll is thought to be higher since adequate testing facilities are lacking in the South Asian nation of 160 million people.

Aid workers have been warning of the potential for a serious outbreak if the virus spread into the densely populated camps. Donovan said Thursday that 108 Rohingya refugees in Cox’s Bazar have been tested for the coronavirus since the beginning of April.

With about 40,000 people per square kilometer (103,600 per square mile) living in plastic shacks side by side, the 34 camps have more than 40 times Bangladesh’s average population density. Each shack is barely 10 square meters (107 square feet) and many are packed with up to 12 residents.

Some refugees remained worried, saying they lacked access to clean water and protective equipment. ...

FULL STORY: https://apnews.com/f6ad74d1c0dcfb784b5a245e762e3b3e
 

Mythopoeika

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In Sweden they will try treating people in pressurised chambers. Not in airplanes though.
Well, at least they're going to try the concept.
 

Trevp666

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Todays (16/5/20) NHS England 'new deaths' figures released.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Todays figures and notable statistics;
181 reported 'new' deaths today;
Numbers dwindling away now.
Day-on-day totals (for those days with complete figures) are dropping by approx 10%.
We are still often seeing deaths which occurred several weeks ago only just now being reported.
127of the 202 trusts today reported 0 new deaths (That's 63%)
For the 2nd day, no trust reported more than 10 deaths (highest amount is 7).
No single trust stands out as reporting a greater number than any other.

11 of the total 'new' deaths are reports which are over a week old.
The oldest reported 'new' death is from University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust, from April 4th (many weeks ago - not sure how that is classified as 'new'?)

Todays deaths by age group;
0-19 = 0
20-39 = 1
40-59 = 21
60-78 = 53
80+ = 106

We are well beyond the 'peak' now, which occurred around the 4th - 8th April.
Friday this week (yesterday) showing 39 - however, as the daily figure is communicated to NHS England at 5pm each day the total for the whole of yesterday is not complete.

Below I show my running totals for;
Existing deaths + New deaths = New totals (If no 'new' to add then no calculation has been entered)
(since Thursday April 2nd, the date I started logging the numbers officially released).

T 811
F 615
S 1106+1=1107 (Saturday April 4th)
S 1094
M 940
T 808
W 889
T 778
F 734
S 770 (April 11th)
S 714
M 689
T 642+1=643
W 682
T 629+2=631
F 604
S 567 (April 18th)
S 518
M 555+1=556
T 479
W 486
T 445
F 430+1=431
S 384+1=385 (April 25th)
S 373
M 339
T 338
W 318+1=319
T 301
F 299
S 263 (May 2nd)
S 242+1=243
M 246
T 243
W 246
T 237+2=239
F 195
S 186+2=188 (May 9th)
S 182+1=183
M 149+3=152
T 154+14=168
W 113+22=135
T 45+89=134
F-----------39

(Figures supplied by NHS England date back to the beginning of March when the UK recorded it's first day with more than 50 deaths.
The figures released daily include deaths from the day on which they happened, so can be from any previous day NOT from just within the past 24 hours)
 
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