Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): The Disease & Its Spread (Per Se)

Trevp666

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Todays (22/5/20) NHS England 'new deaths' figures released.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Todays figures and notable statistics;
121 reported 'new' deaths today;
The trend is starting to level out at around a 8% daily drop in 'new deaths' (albeit with a little +/- to smooth)
155 of the 202 trusts today reported 0 new deaths (That's 77%)
No trust reported 10 or more 'new' deaths - the most is 6 'new' deaths
5 'new' deaths are over a week old.
The oldest reported 'new' death is 1 from University Hospitals Of Morecambe Bay NHS Foundation Trust from April 20th (This is the only death this trust has reported in todays figures).
Thursday this week (yesterday) showing 27 - however, as the daily figure is communicated to NHS England at 5pm each day the total for the whole of yesterday is not complete.

Todays deaths by age group;
0-19 = 0
20-39 = 0
40-59 = 9
60-78 = 40
80+ = 72

Below I show my running totals for;
Existing deaths + New deaths = New totals (If no 'new' to add then no calculation has been entered)
(since Thursday April 2nd, the date I started logging the numbers officially released).

T 811
F 615
S 1107 (Saturday April 4th)
S 1094
M 940
T 808
W 889
T 778
F 734
S 770 (April 11th)
S 714
M 689
T 643
W 683
T 631
F 605
S 567 (April 18th)
S 518
M 557+1=558
T 479
W 487
T 445
F 431
S 386 (April 25th)
S 374
M 341
T 338
W 319
T 301
F 300
S 263 (May 2nd)
S 243+1=244
M 247
T 244+1=245
W 248
T 241
F 199
S 191 (May 9th)
S 188
M 152
T 171
W 149+1=150
T 154+1=155
F 144+1=145
S 152+3=155 (May 16th)
S 124+3=127
M 118+5=123
T 104+16=120
W 44+61=105
T--------------27

(Figures supplied by NHS England date back to the beginning of March when the UK recorded it's first day with more than 50 deaths.
The figures released daily include deaths from the day on which they happened, so can be from any previous day NOT from just within the past 24 hours)
 

Trevp666

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Todays (23/5/20) NHS England 'new deaths' figures released.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Todays figures and notable statistics;
157 reported 'new' deaths today;
Apparently what has driven todays number higher than we were expecting to see is the 99 deaths in the 80+ age group.
The trend is starting to level out at around a 8% daily drop in 'new deaths' (albeit with a little +/- to smooth)
144 of the 202 trusts today reported 0 new deaths (That's 71%)
No trust reported 10 or more 'new' deaths - the most is 6 'new' deaths
14 'new' deaths are over a week old.
The oldest reported 'new' death is 1 from Salford Royal NHS Foundation Trust from April 22nd.
Friday this week (yesterday) showing 30 - however, as the daily figure is communicated to NHS England at 5pm each day the total for the whole of yesterday is not complete.

Todays deaths by age group;
0-19 = 1
20-39 = 0
40-59 = 7
60-78 = 50
80+ = 99

Below I show my running totals for;
Existing deaths + New deaths = New totals (If no 'new' to add then no calculation has been entered)
(since Thursday April 2nd, the date I started logging the numbers officially released).

T 811
F 615
S 1107 (Saturday April 4th)
S 1094
M 940
T 808
W 889
T 778
F 734
S 770 (April 11th)
S 714
M 689
T 643
W 683
T 631
F 605
S 567 (April 18th)
S 518
M 558
T 479
W 487+1=488
T 445
F 431
S 386 (April 25th)
S 374
M 341+1=342
T 338+1=339
W 319
T 301
F 300+1=301
S 263 (May 2nd)
S 244
M 247+2=249
T 245
W 248
T 241
F 199
S 191 (May 9th)
S 188
M 152+3=155
T 171
W 150+1=151
T 155+1=156
F 145+3=148
S 155 (May 16th)
S 127
M 123+6=129
T 120+7=127
W 105+19=124
T 27+81=108
F -----------30

(Figures supplied by NHS England date back to the beginning of March when the UK recorded it's first day with more than 50 deaths.
The figures released daily include deaths from the day on which they happened, so can be from any previous day NOT from just within the past 24 hours)
 

Lb8535

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I don't understand the resistance to the travel quarantine. If the UK is as the numbers seem to say is reducing cases because people have been isolated, opening travel as a free for all will only bring un-isolated cases back in. If the argument is that the lockdown worked and cases are down why accept new un-locked-down people from god knows where? It doesn't make sense to object if you think cases are down. If you don't think the lockdown accomplished anything - which trev's numbers above clearly dispute, then might as well open up.
 

Ghost In The Machine

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Tell that to the Doc, her chest has got a lot better though - so go figure.
I meanwhile am getting worse - on my birthday as well :(
Feel better soon. A number of folk with It have got secondary infections that mean they have had to have antibiotics. Around week 3 I had bronchitis and had a course of antibiotics and have since read on a FB group for folk with the 'long tail' version that is quite a common experience. It lifted the bronchitis (albeit much more slowly than they normally do - as an asthmatic I've got bronchitis before after viruses) but it took the full week to do it. It did nothing for the 'other' illness, obviously...
 

Trevp666

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....reducing cases because people have been isolated....
Unfortunately not that straightforward my friend.

Whether or not cases are reducing because of isolation or despite it is being questioned quite seriously with research in many areas.
The progress of C19 through the wider population, in all countries, regardless of which lockdown measures were put in place, for how long, or not at all, appears to be having very little impact on the 'curve' of total cases &/or total deaths when plotted on a graph, irrespective of the manner in which those measurements are taken (as long as the measurement has been to a consistent standard throughout).
It pretty much consistently follows a 70 - 80 days life-cycle, from initial infections, then with a steep upwards slope to a peak (roughly 3 - 5 weeks after first cases) and then a dropping off of cases along a shallower curve.
In the England we are now at the very end of that shallower curve, and 'new deaths' are levelling out at about 100 a day, although still gradually decreasing.
There is a school of thought which is suggesting that the lockdown imposed in the UK (whether necessary or not) most likely came a couple of weeks too late anyway, and that by the time the lockdown came about, that we had already passed the peak of new infections.
The danger of a 'second peak' from easing lockdown restrictions has not materialised in the UK.
That danger of a second peak appears to be somewhat false though anyway as we are not seeing any significant appearances of a second peak in other countries.
Some are referring back to the 1916-1918 period when a second peak arrived, much stronger than the first, without looking into the historical reasons for that, which was due to soldiers arriving back in their home towns after the Great War, carrying a mutated form of the original strain of the virus, which went on to infect (in a lot of cases re-infect) people back home.

My major concern throughout all of this is this though - Have we set a precedent?
Are we going to move through this period only to enter into our next winter and find that when the regular 'seasonal flu' comes along that we end up being put into yet another lockdown???
I hope not.
 

Ghost In The Machine

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...
There is a school of thought which is suggesting that the lockdown imposed in the UK (whether necessary or not) most likely came a couple of weeks too late anyway, and that by the time the lockdown came about, that we had already passed the peak of new infections.
The danger of a 'second peak' from easing lockdown restrictions has not materialised in the UK.
That danger of a second peak appears to be somewhat false though anyway as we are not seeing any significant appearances of a second peak in other countries.

...
There are scientific models that have predicted successive waves of infection - maybe one more; maybe two or three more. How can we know they're wrong? The virus was aggressively tracked and traced and latterly, new cases isolated in China so the lack of a second wave there tells us nothing about what might happen here, where lockdown is already being, er, 'softened' despite there being more new cases now than when they locked down, originally...

It might be the case that it's one peak and that's it. It might not. We can't yet know but I somehow don't imagine anyone exposed to it say three weeks from now won't be as infective, possibly asymptomatically, possibly spreading it to the same number of people as a randomer would have been at the start of March..?

We can't yet say the danger of a second peak from easing restrictions here "has not materialised" - we're still a couple of weeks maybe from the wave of VE Day and other stupidity deaths that may (or may not) materialise... Week 3's when you take a lovely downturn but maybe into week 4 or so before the Grim Reaper strikes, if you're on a vent?

As for new cases what can we really know in this country where testing has been so dodgy and abyssmal? Only the hospitalised even got tested - and the goalposts to be hospitalised were shifted... We can only really know in retrospect when the NHS is performing antibody tests on everyone.

If this model is correct, 19 million of us have had this already:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...ected-study-antibody-test-cases-a9515886.html

Which means that the sudden impetus to lift restrictions might mean, if there is a similar wave, a couple of months down the line we'd be looking at double that with the blessed (but entirely temporary and very uncertain) "herd immunity"... If there is another wave.

I wouldn't be so sure there won't be. I don't get the rush to risk lives when there are so many unknowns.
 

Trevp666

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I accept your argument GITM.

We can only really know in retrospect
Is probably the most accurate part of it really.
I dearly hope that in a few weeks time we can be saying that indeed, the danger of a 2nd wave was not as much a danger as it looked like it might be.
 

Lobeydosser

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Feel better soon. A number of folk with It have got secondary infections that mean they have had to have antibiotics. Around week 3 I had bronchitis and had a course of antibiotics and have since read on a FB group for folk with the 'long tail' version that is quite a common experience. It lifted the bronchitis (albeit much more slowly than they normally do - as an asthmatic I've got bronchitis before after viruses) but it took the full week to do it. It did nothing for the 'other' illness, obviously...
Thanks for the concern :)
Well as it happened I also ended up on antibiotics at about the 3 week stage and it did seem to eventually stop the cough. I was still having problems with some sort of sinus infection right up until the end of May. I suspect I had covid along with something sinus related at the same time - but, without a test who can say ?
Glad I got the antibiotics though, as i t was getting a bit worrying to say the least.
 

Lb8535

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Thanks for the concern :)
Well as it happened I also ended up on antibiotics at about the 3 week stage and it did seem to eventually stop the cough. I was still having problems with some sort of sinus infection right up until the end of May. I suspect I had covid along with something sinus related at the same time - but, without a test who can say ?
Glad I got the antibiotics though, as i t was getting a bit worrying to say the least.
I'm glad that are on the mend - but can you get a test now since you certainly showed the symptoms?
 

Lobeydosser

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I'm glad that are on the mend - but can you get a test now since you certainly showed the symptoms?
No idea to be honest, might get something through work perhaps as we are now actually making facemasks and other PPE stuff onsite and are anticipating more staff being on site soon. I do know through the "friend of a friend" that offshore workers in the N sea are being tested before going out to rigs.
 

EnolaGaia

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Discovery of a bat virus variant exhibiting strong similarities with some of COVID-19's genome adds weight to the prevailing hypothesis that COVID-19 evolved naturally and isn't the result of genomic manipulation.
Close Genetic Relative of SARS-CoV-2 Found in Bats Offers More Evidence It Evolved Naturally

There is ongoing debate among policymakers and the general public about where SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, came from. While researchers consider bats the most likely natural hosts for SARS-CoV-2, the origins of the virus are still unclear.

Recently, in the journal Current Biology, researchers describe a recently identified bat coronavirus that is SARS-CoV-2’s closest relative in some regions of the genome and which contains insertions of amino acids at the junction of the S1 and S2 subunits of the virus’s spike protein in a manner similar to SAR-CoV-2. While it’s not a direct evolutionary precursor of SARS-CoV-2, this new virus, RmYN02, suggests that these types of seemingly unusual insertion events can occur naturally in coronavirus evolution, the researchers say.

“Since the discovery of SARS-CoV-2 there have been a number of unfounded suggestions that the virus has a laboratory origin,” says senior author Weifeng Shi, director and professor at the Institute of Pathogen Biology at Shandong First Medical University in China. “In particular, it has been proposed the S1/S2 insertion is highly unusual and perhaps indicative of laboratory manipulation. Our paper shows very clearly that these events occur naturally in wildlife. This provides strong evidence against SARS-CoV-2 being a laboratory escape.” ...
FULL STORY: https://scitechdaily.com/close-gene...ts-offers-more-evidence-it-evolved-naturally/
 

Trevp666

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Todays (24/5/20) NHS England 'new deaths' figures released.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Todays figures and notable statistics;
147 reported 'new' deaths today;
The trend is starting to level out at around a 8% daily drop in 'new deaths' (albeit with a little +/- to smooth)
165 of the 202 trusts today reported 0 new deaths (That's 82%)
3 trusts reported 10 or more 'new' deaths, accounting for 38 of todays total - that's 1.5% of the trusts accounting for 26% of todays total.
45 'new' deaths are over a week old (that's quite a lot being discovered long after the fact)
The oldest reported 'new' death is 1 from Countess of Chester Hospital NHS Foundation Trust from March 13th (over 9 weeks ago - how is this counted as 'new'???).
Saturday this week (yesterday) showing 28 - however, as the daily figure is communicated to NHS England at 5pm each day the total for the whole of yesterday is not complete.

Todays deaths by age group;
0-19 = 0
20-39 = 0
40-59 = 6
60-78 = 54
80+ = 87

Below I show my running totals for;
Existing deaths + New deaths = New totals (If no 'new' to add then no calculation has been entered)
(since Thursday April 2nd, the date I started logging the numbers officially released).

T 811
F 615
S 1107 (Saturday April 4th)
S 1094
M 940
T 808
W 889
T 778
F 734+1=735
S 770 (April 11th)
S 714+1=715
M 689+1=690
T 643+1=644
W 683
T 631
F 605
S 567 (April 18th)
S 518
M 558
T 479
W 488+2=490
T 445+3=448
F 431+2=433
S 386 (April 25th)
S 374+4=378
M 342
T 339+1=340
W 319
T 301
F 301+1=302
S 263+1=264 (May 2nd)
S 244+1=245
M 249+2=251
T 245+2=247
W 248+1=249
T 241+1=242
F 199
S 191+3=194 (May 9th)
S 188
M 155+1=156
T 171+4=175
W 151+1=152
T 156+1=157
F 148+6=154
S 155+2=157 (May 16th)
S 127+4=131
M 129+2=131
T 127+5=132
W 124+11=135
T 108+12=120
F 30+40=70
S ------------28

(Figures supplied by NHS England date back to the beginning of March when the UK recorded it's first day with more than 50 deaths.
The figures released daily include deaths from the day on which they happened, so can be from any previous day NOT from just within the past 24 hours)
 

Ghost In The Machine

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I accept your argument GITM.



Is probably the most accurate part of it really.
I dearly hope that in a few weeks time we can be saying that indeed, the danger of a 2nd wave was not as much a danger as it looked like it might be.
Yes absolutely. Just too many unknowns. I hope another wave doesn’t materialise.

I’ve really appreciated your daily posts btw!
 

Victory

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I don't understand the resistance to the travel quarantine. If the UK is as the numbers seem to say is reducing cases because people have been isolated, opening travel as a free for all will only bring un-isolated cases back in.
I think the UK population are fed up with a travel quarantine being introduced as a question of timing, introducing it now when we have already had thousands of deaths, rather than the actual idea of a travel quarantine as a preventative measure.

Countries which introduced it earlier have had noticeably lower infection rates and deaths i.e Jamaica, Taiwan, New Zealand, Israel.
 

Ogdred Weary

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I think the UK population are fed up with a travel quarantine being introduced as a question of timing, introducing it now when we have already had thousands of deaths, rather than the actual idea of a travel quarantine as a preventative measure.

Countries which introduced it earlier have had noticeably lower infection rates and deaths i.e Jamaica, Taiwan, New Zealand, Israel.
I, who don't pay much attention to the news, and I dare say, many, many others assumed something along these lines had been instituted at more or less the same time as lockdown. You've placed the vast majority of people under effective house arrest and asked a small number to work in very difficult circumstances yet you are allowing people into the country from other parts of the world and allowing them use public transport, shops etc.
 

blessmycottonsocks

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Poodle-permed Queen guitarist Brian May has had to go to hospital with a nasty pain in the arse (apparently due to over-aggressive gardening).

https://www.theguardian.com/music/2...alised-gardening-injury-tears-buttock-muscles
He's taken the opportunity to blame the pandemic on eating animals (hooray!) but has also joined the oh so wise after the event brigade by bemoaning the fact that the UK lockdown wasn't imposed earlier.

This was discussed on BBC Question Time last night and the myth that the government resisted widespread calls to implement lockdown a week earlier was exploded. I certainly don't recall any serious criticism at the time that people's livelihoods should have been destroyed any earlier.

Maybe in 6 months time a full and frank public enquiry will come to that decision but, for now, I find all those spouting off with 20-20 hindsight a right pain in the arse.
Doesn't get better for poor Brian May. He's also suffered a heart attack.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/tvandshowbiz/11702119/brian-may-heart-attack-queen/
 

Mythopoeika

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I, who don't pay much attention to the news, and I dare say, many, many others assumed something along these lines had been instituted at more or less the same time as lockdown. You've placed the vast majority of people under effective house arrest and asked a small number to work in very difficult circumstances yet you are allowing people into the country from other parts of the world and allowing them use public transport, shops etc.
NF's been rocking along as well .. and we order pick, and some customers abandon their shopping trolley/cart in the middle of the public areas, and we push then to the same with our arses, we don't ask permission, we just do it .. and the arrogant minority try to tell us off, and we ignore that, smile and invent some bullshit about special offers on the other side of the store that are actually there .. the self absorbed wankers then think we actually like them then and calm down. Problem solved.
 

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maximus otter

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"The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says its "best estimate" is that 0.4% of people who show symptoms and have Covid-19 will die.

For people age 65 and older, the CDC puts that number at 1.3%.

For people 49 and under, the agency estimated that 0.05% of symptomatic people will die."

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/22/health/cdc-coronavirus-estimates-symptoms-deaths/index.html

maximus otter
If you do the Lottery, you’re going to be pretty wary of those odds.
 

Trevp666

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Lowest figures yet since I started logging the numbers.

Todays (25/5/20) NHS England 'new deaths' figures released.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Todays figures and notable statistics;
59 reported 'new' deaths today;
173 of the 202 trusts today reported 0 new deaths (That's 86%)
1 trust reported 4 'new' deaths, Mid Yorkshire Hospitals NHS Trust. That is the largest number reported.
1 'new' death is over a week old - West Hertfordshire Hospitals NHS Trust from May 16th.
Sunday this week (yesterday) showing 19 - however, as the daily figure is communicated to NHS England at 5pm each day the total for the whole of yesterday is not complete.

Todays deaths by age group;
0-19 = 0
20-39 = 0
40-59 = 4
60-78 = 13
80+ = 42

Below I show my running totals for;
Existing deaths + New deaths = New totals (If no 'new' to add then no calculation has been entered)
(since Thursday April 2nd, the date I started logging the numbers officially released).

T 811
F 615
S 1107 (Saturday April 4th)
S 1094
M 940
T 808
W 889
T 778
F 735
S 770 (April 11th)
S 715
M 690
T 644
W 683
T 631
F 605
S 567 (April 18th)
S 518
M 558
T 479
W 490
T 448
F 433
S 386 (April 25th)
S 378
M 342
T 340
W 319
T 301
F 302
S 264 (May 2nd)
S 245
M 251
T 247
W 249
T 242
F 199
S 194 (May 9th)
S 188
M 156
T 175
W 152
T 157
F 154
S 157+1=158 (May 16th)
S 131
M 131
T 132+1=133
W 135+2=137
T 120+3=123
F 70+5=75
S 28+28=56
S -------------19

(Figures supplied by NHS England date back to the beginning of March when the UK recorded it's first day with more than 50 deaths.
 
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Lobeydosser

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