COVID-19: Non-Medical Effects (Responses; Disruptions; Etc.)

Victory

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Writing from London:

Just because some people don't know anyone with Covid 19, does not mean it is imaginary.
I know a few, two of whom are in intensive care, at least three others are suffering at home.

People are still congregating around London, and I think the social distancing and lock down measures will become stricter and more rigorously enforced from Monday latest.

In a small supermarket today I was handed gloves to wear at the door, but it was nigh on impossible to stay 2 metres from anyone in spite of the store having marked out clear waiting places for the checkout queue.

In brighter news, Sainsburys had lots of fresh fruit and vegetables, a small amount of pasta (better than none), a bit of rice (better than none) and some soap, shower gel and even a small amount of toilet roll (better than none.)
 

Min Bannister

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The huge coronavirus hospital that's being built in the London ExCeL exhibition centre is immense. Here's a Guardian page with a video about it -
NHS Nightingale

The size and scale reminded me of the epic scene in Gone With The Wind where Scarlett walks among the wounded of the Battle of Atlanta.

Battle of Atlanta
Yebbut how many gigantic mega-hospitals are built every year for flu eh? Eh??
 

Comfortably Numb

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Yebbut how many gigantic mega-hospitals are built every year for flu eh? Eh??
I was reading about this and contemplating why such a vast undertaking... why so many others also planned?

Is this a mass overreaction, given that the virus will surely be brought under control and dissapate in the near future?

Just wondering about the scale of it all and the necessity. :btime:
 

Min Bannister

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I was reading about this and contemplating why such a vast undertaking... why so many others also planned?

Is this a mass overreaction, given that the virus will surely be brought under control and dissapate in the near future?

Just wondering about the scale of it all and the necessity. :btime:
They are probably looking at how numbers are increasing here, how they were increasing in Italy a few weeks ago, adding in the number of Londoners cramming onto tubes and so on and planning ahead.
 

Comfortably Numb

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They are probably looking at how numbers are increasing here...... and planning ahead.
Fine... that's fair enough...

So.. what are the potential numbers involved here?

Are the planned new facilities solely intended for severe cases, requiring a ventilator?

How many ventilators potentially - around 30,000?

I'm probably just trying to reach some perspective with these new figures.

Especially so, regarding the overall number of cases which would be implied, if the severe cases alone could amount to so many.
 

Cochise

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Coronavirus: How the UK's homeless are coping during the pandemic

Source: BBC Online

Kris is a Big Issue vendor and has been homeless for 10 years.

With the streets of London almost empty, he can’t sell his magazines and the Big Issue has been forced to rely on online donations.

What is being done to help those left stranded by the lockdown?

We used equipment to make this report allowing us to maintain social-distancing.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-52...-uk-s-homeless-are-coping-during-the-pandemic
Yeah. I've been thinking about the homeless in Liverpool, a couple of whom I know. They will not be getting enough money for food with the pubs shut. They are probably the most vulnerable of us all :-(
 

Min Bannister

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So.. what are the potential numbers involved here?

Are the planned new facilities solely intended for severe cases, requiring a ventilator?
I would think so as if you don't require a ventilator then you probably don't need to be in hospital. i can't really answer your other questions as I don't know but they have been talking about 10s of thousands of ventilators on the radio this morning.
 

Cochise

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I was reading about this and contemplating why such a vast undertaking... why so many others also planned?

Is this a mass overreaction, given that the virus will surely be brought under control and dissapate in the near future?

Just wondering about the scale of it all and the necessity. :btime:
As the Government admitted yesterday (and as frankly has been fairly obvious all along) they have no real idea how many cases there are going to be. All they can do is track what is going on in other European countries, none of which have yet 'peaked' (although Italy might be getting close). Given that the hysterics are only interested in COVID-19 deaths they have to cover themselves against endless criticism if they didn't do all this.

I think that this reaction - we don't know if it is an under or over-reaction - is caused by a perfect storm of unworldly attitudes and obsessions that has built over maybe 40 years and which public demands are frequently not only without rational context but are in direct contradiction of other public demands but no-one in authority dares point this out.

I will give one example - there is no point carping about irresponsible people overcrowding the tube when the number of tube trains have been radically cut but there is a large concentration of essential workers needed in Central London. Yet no-one is doing anything about the obvious contradiction. Also lets remember the longer this goes on there will be more 'essential workers', not less, unless everything is to break down.
 

Comfortably Numb

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I hink that this reaction - we don't know if it is an under or over-reaction - is caused by a perfect storm of unworldly attitudes and obsessions that has built over maybe 40 years and which public demands are frequently not only without rational context but are in direct contradiction of other public demands but no-one in authority dares point this out.
I was revisiting quotes from Charles Fort last night.

If that had been amongst them, I wouldn't have noticed the difference.
 
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...I will give one example - there is no point carping about irresponsible people overcrowding the tube when the number of tube trains have been radically cut but there is a large concentration of essential workers needed in Central London. Yet no-one is doing anything about the obvious contradiction. Also lets remember the longer this goes on there will be more 'essential workers', not less, unless everything is to break down.
Yes, I've noticed an awful lot of criticism of people doing things they are forced to do - as in the above example - but also of doing things that they are very clearly allowed to do (go shopping, exercise).

One of the tabloids has a list of complaints offered to the police - many give the impression that the complainant is less concerned with virus related transgressions than with the fact that they don't like their neighbours very much.
 

escargot

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One of the tabloids has a list of complaints offered to the police - many give the impression that the complainant is less concerned with virus related transgressions than with the fact that they don't like their neighbours.
Many of our neighbours have young children who are off school now. They play in their gardens and their parents apologise on Facebook for the noise. I tell them 'It's nothing to be sorry about! Children need to play out!'
They're kicking a ball around or clambering around on climbing frames, not shouting obscenities and breaking bottles. (I may get around to that later.)
 

Comfortably Numb

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... they have been talking about 10s of thousands of ventilators on the radio this morning.
Latest news...

London hospitals facing 'tsunami' of coronavirus cases

Source: BBC News Online (Health)
Time: 6 minutes ago

London hospitals are facing a "tsunami" of coronavirus cases and are beginning to run out of intensive care beds, a senior hospital figure has said.

Chris Hopson, of NHS Providers, which represents hospitals, said while critical care capacity had been expanded hospitals in the capital had seen an "explosion" in demand.

A third of the UK cases have been diagnosed in the city.

Mr Hopson said high staff absence rates were creating a "wicked combination".

"They are struggling with two things.

"The first is the explosion of demand they are seeing in seriously ill patients.

"They talk about wave after wave after wave - the word that's often used to me is a continuous tsunami.

"We are now seeing 30%, 40% and indeed in some places 50% sickness rates as staff catch the virus or are in vulnerable groups or have to self-isolate.

"That's unprecedented."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51714498
 

McAvennie

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"22.3.2020:

One problem – one massive, enormous, elephant-in-the-room-sized problem – is that the current figures provide no basis whatsoever for the worldwide terror. In the UK so far we’ve had 177 deaths caused by the virus called Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Not 177 in the last half hour. 177 in total. [Now 465 - m.o., 26.3.2020] This harvest of death that was going to decimate the population has resulted in … 177 [465] fatalities. (There’ll be a few more by the time you read this, but, I bet, not that many.)

1700 people on average die in Britain every day, which amounts to an average of seventy every hour. 177 people is the equivalent of two and a half hours of normal time. In the four months since the first Covid-19 case was identified over 200 000 British people have died, so the idea that Britain is now becoming overwhelmed with more dead bodies than it can cope with because of Covid-19 doesn’t add up. Three times as many people have died in traffic accidents in that time. About ten times as many British people have offed themselves in that time.

Some other countries, of course, have worse figures. But not that bad. No zombie apocalypse. Some sad individual tragedies. Some loved grandparents, and my heart goes out to anyone who lost a loved one early. But no World War II figures. No Vietnam figures. Not even Iraq War figures. (Italy’s figures are far less than one day’s normal deaths.) This is a health crisis that requires more hospital beds and ventilators. It is not, however, Mars Attacks.

For example, how many Chinese people have died from all causes since mid-November? Over two million (over 7 million die in China every year). Even if China’s covering up a mountain of Covid-19 deaths on an industrial scale, it’s still just a blip. In the USA, about a million people have died in that period, so their 276 deaths is about 0.0276% of all deaths in that period (ie. about 1 in 3600 deaths are attributable to Covid-19).

In the whole world there have only been about 11 000 Covid-19 deaths. That’s roughly 0.05% of all deaths in the world in those four months, about 1/20th of one percent. (Roughly 57 million people die each year in the world.)

So even if we take the official Covid-19 figures at face value, they provide no reason to trouble even the most keen actuary, let alone the rest of us.

But, you will no doubt protest, the reason for everyone soiling themselves is not the deaths so far, it’s what to come. The exponential growth that will be happening any moment now, sending deaths skyrocketing.

Except that we’ve been waiting for this skyrocketing growth for quite some time now, and it’s not really happening. This virus has been around at least since mid-November, and probably earlier. Massive numbers of Chinese tourists from Wuhan have been travelling all over the world since then. And other people have been spreading it since then, with the usual mass travel from everywhere to everywhere happening too. This virus will have got around. Even the recent ‘lockdowns’ have only been very, very partial. We’ve had perfect conditions for this virus to spread over winter, yet we’re still waiting for the mass deaths to start. This virus has had more than enough time to spread and start killing football stadiums’ worth of people everywhere, yet it hasn’t.

We’ve been seeing warnings for months now about it, yet the killing fields are always just around the corner. But spring and warmer weather in the northern hemisphere are also just around the corner. Are we really supposed to believe that the biggest hit from this disease is going to be April and May when winter says goodbye?"

https://hectordrummond.com/2020/03/22/apocalypse-later/

maximus otter
If you take this at face value then it does seem to be a ridiculously huge overreaction, with gigantic repercussions.

In which case it's startlingly bad and incompetent leadership in times of crisis, across many countries.

Or, it is something more sinister and has been orchestrated to end us in this scenario.

As deliciously intriguing as the second option is, I think history tells us the first is far more likely.
 

Yithian

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One problem – one massive, enormous, elephant-in-the-room-sized problem – is that the current figures provide no basis whatsoever for the worldwide terror. In the UK so far we’ve had 177 deaths caused by the virus called Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Not 177 in the last half hour. 177 in total. [Now 465 - m.o., 26.3.2020] This harvest of death that was going to decimate the population has resulted in … 177 [465] fatalities. (There’ll be a few more by the time you read this, but, I bet, not that many.)
So far every critical patient has had access to a hospital bed, adequate care and a respirator.

The doctors I've seen interviewed have estimated that capacity will be reached towards the end of this weekend (28-29 March) and additional patients that arrive on Monday or Tuesday will mean that either treatment will need to be withdrawn from existing patients or that the new arrivals will have to do without. A small but growing number of doctors and nurses are also contracting the virus and are having to remove themselves from the wards.

Given that it takes a while to expire, I expect to see an steep incline in the death rate come the middle of next week.

I very much hope that the estimates are wrong or that additional equipment, medics and beds arrive in time.

Only a fool would judge a pandemic part-way (not even half-way) through.
 

maximus otter

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London hospitals facing 'tsunami' of coronavirus cases

Source: BBC News Online (Health)
Time: 6 minutes ago

London hospitals are facing a "tsunami" of coronavirus cases and are beginning to run out of intensive care beds, a senior hospital figure has said.

Chris Hopson, of NHS Providers, which represents hospitals, said while critical care capacity had been expanded hospitals in the capital had seen an "explosion" in demand.

A third of the UK cases have been diagnosed in the city.

Mr Hopson said high staff absence rates were creating a "wicked combination".

"They are struggling with two things.

"The first is the explosion of demand they are seeing in seriously ill patients.

"They talk about wave after wave after wave - the word that's often used to me is a continuous tsunami.

"We are now seeing 30%, 40% and indeed in some places 50% sickness rates as staff catch the virus or are in vulnerable groups or have to self-isolate.

"That's unprecedented."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51714498
ln the UK Winter 2014/2015 “ordinary flu” season, 28,330 people died of flu:

Page 51

So far, in about four months, 465 people have died of COVID-19 in the UK.

How is this an “unprecedented tsunami”?

maximus otter
 

Comfortably Numb

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A new Sky News report:

Coronavirus: 'Hell' at New York's COVID-19 ground zero

New York state alone has accounted for more than 30,000 cases and close to 300 deaths, most of them in New York City.

The empty streets, closed shops and grim daily tally only tell half the story.

Dr Steve Kasspidis tells it straight: "It's hell, biblical. I kid you not,"

And he should know. He's right in the thick of it, at Mount Sinai Hospital in Queens - the most infected district in what is now the most infected city in the world, New York.

"People come in, they get intubated, they die, the cycle repeats. The system is overwhelmed all over the place.

[...]

"Right now it's every day, it's non-stop, literally," said Doron Goldman Barkan, a Respiratory Therapist.

"Unfortunately it might get to a situation where you have to pick and choose what you're going to do and how you're going to do it.

"A lot of people come, they expire and you put the same machine on another person and you can't really process the situation because it's so hard to think about this".

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-hell-at-new-yorks-covid-19-ground-zero-11963761


Anyone else experiencing a massive reality check here.
 

Yithian

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So far, in about four months, 465 people have died of COVID-19 in the UK.

How is this an “unprecedented tsunami”?

maximus otter
The tsunami metaphor does not refer to the number of deaths, it refers to the number of cases.

This isn't an interpretation, it's clear from the sentence you quote.

The unprecedented nature of the phenomenon is not the total number, but the concentration of critical cases over such a short span of time.

The sheer number of cases (of which many will survive) will result in an elevated number of deaths.

A tsunami, you recall, roars towards one, gathering power and speed, inflicting all the damage when it strikes.

Many drops of water striking individually tend not to have this effect--like a nicely spread 'regular' flu season.

We may well also see a tsunami of deaths, but it hasn't arrived yet.
 

Cochise

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The tsunami metaphor does not refer to the number of deaths, it refers to the number of cases.

This isn't an interpretation, it's clear from the sentence you quote.

The unprecedented nature of the phenomenon is not the total number, but the concentration of critical cases over such a short span of time.

The sheer number of cases (of which many will survive) will result in an elevated number of deaths.

A tsunami, you recall, roars towards one, gathering power and speed, inflicting all the damage when it strikes.

Many drops of water striking individually tend not to have this effect--like a nicely spread 'regular' flu season.

We may well also see a tsunami of deaths, but it hasn't arrived yet.
But how many deaths warrant this level of economic disruption? that's the question that only a few people are yet prepared to tackle. The numbers so far do not warrant it or we would shut down like this every winter. There is not even any actual proof that the shutdowns as practiced in Europe have prevented deaths - indeed they may have caused some like the poor souls in the Spanish care home.

I'm not arguing with your point, I'm just saying that if the numbers don't start dropping soon, then the lockdown simply won't have worked.

Fortunately, there are slight signs in Italy that the peak has been reached.

It is all total speculation until we know how many people have actually been infected, although you'd never think so reading the lunacy in the media.
 

EnolaGaia

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ln the UK Winter 2014/2015 “ordinary flu” season, 28,330 people died of flu:
So far, in about four months, 465 people have died of COVID-19 in the UK.
How is this an “unprecedented tsunami”?
Judging the situation's severity solely in terms of death toll is missing the point ...

It's an unprecedented wave of demand for treatment / hospitalization services, not for undertaking / funeral services. It's most severely stressing the systems and infrastructure for dealing with the sick rather than the dead.

The indicator of systemic duress is the number of cases requiring in-depth care, not the number of cases ending in death.
 

Yithian

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But how many deaths warrant this level of economic disruption? that's the question that only a few people are yet prepared to tackle. The numbers so far do not warrant it or we would shut down like this every winter.
Above my pay grade.

The government is being extremely cautious with revealing their best / expected / worst-case figures.

My only clue is that it's Boris implementing all this; a man most fond of free-trade, industry and the market.

He's clearly very spooked.
 

maximus otter

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Judging the situation's severity solely in terms of death toll is missing the point ...

It's an unprecedented wave of demand for treatment / hospitalization services, not for undertaking / funeral services. It's most severely stressing the systems and infrastructure for dealing with the sick rather than the dead.

The indicator of systemic duress is the number of cases requiring in-depth care, not the number of cases ending in death.
Yes, but the proportion of those:

Asymptomatic
Mildly affected
Seriously affected
Died

Will, l believe, be broadly similar.

The only 100%-tested, closed “Petri dish” of COVID-19 of which l am aware is the Diamond Princess cruise ship. On that ship, there were 712 confirmed cases, of whom 11 died, or 1.55%. That figure is badly skewed because most of the sufferers, and all ( l believe) of the deaths, were elderly, i.e. 70+

Ordinary flu has a mortality rate of about 0.13%

Had the Diamond Princess had a more typical, age-balanced range of victims, l’d bet that the death rate would have plummeted a lot closer to 0.13% rather than 1.55%

Edited to add: in the ordinary flu season 2014/2015 l mentioned above, the proportion of deaths was:

Over 65 years: 25,143

All other ages: 805

So: 31 old people for every younger person.

maximus otter
 
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