COVID-19 (Wuhan Coronavirus): The Disease & Its Spread (Per Se)

Trevp666

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Who is that 0.625 of a person anyway? Is that the guy that lives round the corner from me with one leg called Dave?
(I don't know the name of his other leg)
And how does he go on to infect 2.5 people?
Does he hop around the other members of his one-legged club coughing on 4 of them?
 
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Who is that 0.625 of a person anyway? Is that the guy that lives round the corner from me with one leg called Dave?
(I don't know the name of his other leg)
And how does he go on to infect 2.5 people?
Does he hop around the other members of his one-legged club coughing on 4 of them?
I think the 75% less contact figures are basically taking into account the stupids and the high probability they will meet each other while they're on the beach/attending parties/jogging together
 

Trevp666

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I hate it when newspapers (or anywhere) do these types of calculations.
Either start off with a figure for 100 people infecting 250 people....etc etc... or don't bother.
You can't infect 2.5 people. It's 2 people or 3 people.
 

Cochise

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Just to reiterate, from a statistical point of view :

We do not know how many people have had the virus. Until we know that we cannot work out the death rate, only make guesses.

The death rate is also problematic, although less so, because there is a judgement call as to whether the patient died because of COVID-19
but merely 'has' the virus.

Probably the most relevant number we have is the number of hospitalisations of people with the virus, because regardless of the severity of the virus compared to whatever else they may be suffering from they will require the same protections around them to stop the virus spreading to staff and other patients.

Even so, the wide range of death rates to admissions across different countries with approximately similar standards of health care makes another difficulty.

So ANY number we are presented with should be treated with extreme scepticism, whether it is a pessimistic or optimistic forecast.

If I was in Sweden I wouldn't panic - so far their numbers seem to be within the range of other northern European countries, there are enough now on a similar trajectory to at least be able to determine some kind of mean curve of hospitalisations and deaths.
 
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Wow. Hes not far off considering this was written on March 20th. He estimated 12,800 deaths by yesterday and America currently has 12,902.
They beat the predictions by 102, that's the "can do" American spirit and explains why they are the most powerful country in the world.
 

AnonyJoolz

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The maths seems clear to a layman like me, although I don't know how well-founded the assumptions are. What worries me, though, is the sociopathic disconnect that allows the author to write ”hell is coming; buy hospital stocks.”
Me too. My personal religious belief tells me that 'hell is coming' for people like the author unless they seriously and sincerely change.
 

Cochise

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'Some' evidence is beginning to emerge about the number of cases that don't have symptoms (or have such mild symptoms that they are not referred medically) .

COVID-19: What proportion are asymptomatic?
April 6, 2020

Carl Heneghan, Jon Brassey, Tom Jefferson

Readers of the blog will be aware that we have little trust in the current reported COVID data. Everywhere we look we cannot get a handle on the essential facts or at times we get 2 completely different answers to the same question. The military historian Sir Basil Liddle Hart would have called this “the fog of a pandemic” or perhaps the “fog of information overload”.
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-what-proportion-are-asymptomatic/
 
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