COVID-19 (Wuhan Coronavirus): The Disease & Its Spread (Per Se)

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Who is that 0.625 of a person anyway? Is that the guy that lives round the corner from me with one leg called Dave?
(I don't know the name of his other leg)
And how does he go on to infect 2.5 people?
Does he hop around the other members of his one-legged club coughing on 4 of them?
I think the 75% less contact figures are basically taking into account the stupids and the high probability they will meet each other while they're on the beach/attending parties/jogging together
 

Trevp666

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I hate it when newspapers (or anywhere) do these types of calculations.
Either start off with a figure for 100 people infecting 250 people....etc etc... or don't bother.
You can't infect 2.5 people. It's 2 people or 3 people.
 

Cochise

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Just to reiterate, from a statistical point of view :

We do not know how many people have had the virus. Until we know that we cannot work out the death rate, only make guesses.

The death rate is also problematic, although less so, because there is a judgement call as to whether the patient died because of COVID-19
but merely 'has' the virus.

Probably the most relevant number we have is the number of hospitalisations of people with the virus, because regardless of the severity of the virus compared to whatever else they may be suffering from they will require the same protections around them to stop the virus spreading to staff and other patients.

Even so, the wide range of death rates to admissions across different countries with approximately similar standards of health care makes another difficulty.

So ANY number we are presented with should be treated with extreme scepticism, whether it is a pessimistic or optimistic forecast.

If I was in Sweden I wouldn't panic - so far their numbers seem to be within the range of other northern European countries, there are enough now on a similar trajectory to at least be able to determine some kind of mean curve of hospitalisations and deaths.
 
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Wow. Hes not far off considering this was written on March 20th. He estimated 12,800 deaths by yesterday and America currently has 12,902.
They beat the predictions by 102, that's the "can do" American spirit and explains why they are the most powerful country in the world.
 

AnonyJoolz

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The maths seems clear to a layman like me, although I don't know how well-founded the assumptions are. What worries me, though, is the sociopathic disconnect that allows the author to write ”hell is coming; buy hospital stocks.”
Me too. My personal religious belief tells me that 'hell is coming' for people like the author unless they seriously and sincerely change.
 

Cochise

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'Some' evidence is beginning to emerge about the number of cases that don't have symptoms (or have such mild symptoms that they are not referred medically) .

COVID-19: What proportion are asymptomatic?
April 6, 2020

Carl Heneghan, Jon Brassey, Tom Jefferson

Readers of the blog will be aware that we have little trust in the current reported COVID data. Everywhere we look we cannot get a handle on the essential facts or at times we get 2 completely different answers to the same question. The military historian Sir Basil Liddle Hart would have called this “the fog of a pandemic” or perhaps the “fog of information overload”.
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-what-proportion-are-asymptomatic/
 

Trevp666

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https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

NHS own figures relating to the 828 deaths reported today for England breaks down as follows (the dates the deaths actually happened);
Yesterday the 7th - 135
6th - 306
5th - 162
4th - 93
3rd - 63
2nd - 23
1st - 17
All the remaining deaths are in 1s and 2s on various dates going back as far as March 4th.
This means that the past few days including these new deaths goes pretty much like this;
Thurs 650+23 = 673
Fri 690+63 = 753
Sat 800+93 = 893
Sun 700+162 = 862
Mon 307+306 = 613
Tues 135

When tomorrows NHS figures are released and included in the previous daily totals I expect that Saturday will be confirmed as the peak, it's looking fairly likely already. Todays figure of 135 is probably actually more like 450.
 

Yithian

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https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

NHS own figures relating to the 828 deaths reported today for England breaks down as follows (the dates the deaths actually happened);
Yesterday the 7th - 135
6th - 306
5th - 162
4th - 93
3rd - 63
2nd - 23
1st - 17
All the remaining deaths are in 1s and 2s on various dates going back as far as March 4th.
This means that the past few days including these new deaths goes pretty much like this;
Thurs 650+23 = 673
Fri 690+63 = 753
Sat 800+93 = 893
Sun 700+162 = 862
Mon 307+306 = 613
Tues 135

When tomorrows NHS figures are released and included in the previous daily totals I expect that Saturday will be confirmed as the peak, it's looking fairly likely already. Todays figure of 135 is probably actually more like 450.
I earnestly hope you're right, but I'm not yet convinced. I'm not really sure that 'a peak' is what we're seeing in the true sense.

I think it all depends on how far the current 'social-distancing' methods have been able to retard the spread of the virus outside of London, the place where it has made the deepest inroads. The situation has improved in Italy and Spain, but the death rate has remained stubbornly high, nonetheless, as secondary and tertiary hotspots have emerged in other parts of those countries. There's a 'peak' (statistically speaking), but the reverse slope is a lot more shallow that the steep front face. Only time will tell whether these graphs end up looking more like pyramids than plateaus.

Take a look at these:

Screenshot 2020-04-09 at 00.00.10.png Screenshot 2020-04-09 at 00.00.25.png
 

Trevp666

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I too have been looking in quite some detail at those graphs, and the flow of figures coming in daily. As far as I can tell the way things were dealt with in both Italy and Spain, and the fact that those countries tend to have a greater likelihood of extended families living together, have led to extended periods of high numbers of deaths being reported, and their reporting methods are slightly different to ours (as are all countries different to each other), but nevertheless I'm not getting my hopes up based on a small set of local numbers.
(Also, as we know, the figures used to compile the graphs on worldometer are the ones taken from daily reporting which slightly misrepresent things once we see the numbers in relation to the days on which those reported deaths actually happened.)
Fortunately the NHS own daily data sets are really very accurate but presented in quite a difficult to digest form, being on excel spreadsheets listing each of the various trusts across the country, so a certain amount of time has to be spent looking through that to get a clear picture.
The London figures show that the area is somewhat ahead of the rest of country with numbers now having fallen day on day for a few days now.
It is a shame that the mantra of 'test test test' has not been able to be followed very well for various reasons, which we have discussed previously, so I'm not going to recap over that now.
I earnestly hope I'm right too Yithian, and also I'm not convinced yet, but seeing as I appear to have quite a bit of free time at present I'm going to keep checking the numbers daily and hopefully my levels of convincement (is that a word?) will rise.
 

Schrodinger's Zebra

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Interesting video here from Brian May which I think is well worth a watch.. he talks about the distinction between people suffering only mild (or no) symptoms and people suffering the severest symptoms.



As an aside, I hope Brian is ok too, I'm a tad worried when I watch his little videos but maybe that's just me. Take care, Mr May.
 
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Interesting video here from Brian May which I think is well worth a watch.. he talks about the distinction between people suffering only mild (or no) symptoms and people suffering the severest symptoms.



As an aside, I hope Brian is ok too, I'm a tad worried when I watch his little videos but maybe that's just me. Take care, Mr May.
Brian May, back to the Regency with your wig and and your whoring of Queen's back catalogue.
 

Mythopoeika

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Interesting video here from Brian May which I think is well worth a watch.. he talks about the distinction between people suffering only mild (or no) symptoms and people suffering the severest symptoms.



As an aside, I hope Brian is ok too, I'm a tad worried when I watch his little videos but maybe that's just me. Take care, Mr May.
The virus particularly seems to target men. Far more men than women are dying after catching it.
Also, caucasians seem to be more susceptible than people from the far East or Africa.
It could almost be a bioweapon... almost.
 
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The virus particularly seems to target men. Far more men than women are dying after catching it.
Also, caucasians seem to be more susceptible than people from the far East or Africa.
It could almost be a bioweapon... almost.
BLOODY FOREIGN ORIENTAL FEMINAZIS, COMMING OVER HERE INCAPITATING ALL OUR OBESE OLD ETONIANS WITH THEIR SUPER AIDS.
 
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