COVID-19 (Wuhan Coronavirus): The Disease & Its Spread (Per Se)

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Who is that 0.625 of a person anyway? Is that the guy that lives round the corner from me with one leg called Dave?
(I don't know the name of his other leg)
And how does he go on to infect 2.5 people?
Does he hop around the other members of his one-legged club coughing on 4 of them?
I think the 75% less contact figures are basically taking into account the stupids and the high probability they will meet each other while they're on the beach/attending parties/jogging together
 

Trevp666

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I hate it when newspapers (or anywhere) do these types of calculations.
Either start off with a figure for 100 people infecting 250 people....etc etc... or don't bother.
You can't infect 2.5 people. It's 2 people or 3 people.
 

Cochise

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Just to reiterate, from a statistical point of view :

We do not know how many people have had the virus. Until we know that we cannot work out the death rate, only make guesses.

The death rate is also problematic, although less so, because there is a judgement call as to whether the patient died because of COVID-19
but merely 'has' the virus.

Probably the most relevant number we have is the number of hospitalisations of people with the virus, because regardless of the severity of the virus compared to whatever else they may be suffering from they will require the same protections around them to stop the virus spreading to staff and other patients.

Even so, the wide range of death rates to admissions across different countries with approximately similar standards of health care makes another difficulty.

So ANY number we are presented with should be treated with extreme scepticism, whether it is a pessimistic or optimistic forecast.

If I was in Sweden I wouldn't panic - so far their numbers seem to be within the range of other northern European countries, there are enough now on a similar trajectory to at least be able to determine some kind of mean curve of hospitalisations and deaths.
 
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Wow. Hes not far off considering this was written on March 20th. He estimated 12,800 deaths by yesterday and America currently has 12,902.
They beat the predictions by 102, that's the "can do" American spirit and explains why they are the most powerful country in the world.
 

AnonyJoolz

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The maths seems clear to a layman like me, although I don't know how well-founded the assumptions are. What worries me, though, is the sociopathic disconnect that allows the author to write ”hell is coming; buy hospital stocks.”
Me too. My personal religious belief tells me that 'hell is coming' for people like the author unless they seriously and sincerely change.
 

Cochise

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'Some' evidence is beginning to emerge about the number of cases that don't have symptoms (or have such mild symptoms that they are not referred medically) .

COVID-19: What proportion are asymptomatic?
April 6, 2020

Carl Heneghan, Jon Brassey, Tom Jefferson

Readers of the blog will be aware that we have little trust in the current reported COVID data. Everywhere we look we cannot get a handle on the essential facts or at times we get 2 completely different answers to the same question. The military historian Sir Basil Liddle Hart would have called this “the fog of a pandemic” or perhaps the “fog of information overload”.
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-what-proportion-are-asymptomatic/
 

Trevp666

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https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

NHS own figures relating to the 828 deaths reported today for England breaks down as follows (the dates the deaths actually happened);
Yesterday the 7th - 135
6th - 306
5th - 162
4th - 93
3rd - 63
2nd - 23
1st - 17
All the remaining deaths are in 1s and 2s on various dates going back as far as March 4th.
This means that the past few days including these new deaths goes pretty much like this;
Thurs 650+23 = 673
Fri 690+63 = 753
Sat 800+93 = 893
Sun 700+162 = 862
Mon 307+306 = 613
Tues 135

When tomorrows NHS figures are released and included in the previous daily totals I expect that Saturday will be confirmed as the peak, it's looking fairly likely already. Todays figure of 135 is probably actually more like 450.
 

Yithian

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https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

NHS own figures relating to the 828 deaths reported today for England breaks down as follows (the dates the deaths actually happened);
Yesterday the 7th - 135
6th - 306
5th - 162
4th - 93
3rd - 63
2nd - 23
1st - 17
All the remaining deaths are in 1s and 2s on various dates going back as far as March 4th.
This means that the past few days including these new deaths goes pretty much like this;
Thurs 650+23 = 673
Fri 690+63 = 753
Sat 800+93 = 893
Sun 700+162 = 862
Mon 307+306 = 613
Tues 135

When tomorrows NHS figures are released and included in the previous daily totals I expect that Saturday will be confirmed as the peak, it's looking fairly likely already. Todays figure of 135 is probably actually more like 450.
I earnestly hope you're right, but I'm not yet convinced. I'm not really sure that 'a peak' is what we're seeing in the true sense.

I think it all depends on how far the current 'social-distancing' methods have been able to retard the spread of the virus outside of London, the place where it has made the deepest inroads. The situation has improved in Italy and Spain, but the death rate has remained stubbornly high, nonetheless, as secondary and tertiary hotspots have emerged in other parts of those countries. There's a 'peak' (statistically speaking), but the reverse slope is a lot more shallow that the steep front face. Only time will tell whether these graphs end up looking more like pyramids than plateaus.

Take a look at these:

Screenshot 2020-04-09 at 00.00.10.png Screenshot 2020-04-09 at 00.00.25.png
 

Trevp666

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I too have been looking in quite some detail at those graphs, and the flow of figures coming in daily. As far as I can tell the way things were dealt with in both Italy and Spain, and the fact that those countries tend to have a greater likelihood of extended families living together, have led to extended periods of high numbers of deaths being reported, and their reporting methods are slightly different to ours (as are all countries different to each other), but nevertheless I'm not getting my hopes up based on a small set of local numbers.
(Also, as we know, the figures used to compile the graphs on worldometer are the ones taken from daily reporting which slightly misrepresent things once we see the numbers in relation to the days on which those reported deaths actually happened.)
Fortunately the NHS own daily data sets are really very accurate but presented in quite a difficult to digest form, being on excel spreadsheets listing each of the various trusts across the country, so a certain amount of time has to be spent looking through that to get a clear picture.
The London figures show that the area is somewhat ahead of the rest of country with numbers now having fallen day on day for a few days now.
It is a shame that the mantra of 'test test test' has not been able to be followed very well for various reasons, which we have discussed previously, so I'm not going to recap over that now.
I earnestly hope I'm right too Yithian, and also I'm not convinced yet, but seeing as I appear to have quite a bit of free time at present I'm going to keep checking the numbers daily and hopefully my levels of convincement (is that a word?) will rise.
 

Schrodinger's Zebra

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Interesting video here from Brian May which I think is well worth a watch.. he talks about the distinction between people suffering only mild (or no) symptoms and people suffering the severest symptoms.



As an aside, I hope Brian is ok too, I'm a tad worried when I watch his little videos but maybe that's just me. Take care, Mr May.
 
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Interesting video here from Brian May which I think is well worth a watch.. he talks about the distinction between people suffering only mild (or no) symptoms and people suffering the severest symptoms.



As an aside, I hope Brian is ok too, I'm a tad worried when I watch his little videos but maybe that's just me. Take care, Mr May.
Brian May, back to the Regency with your wig and and your whoring of Queen's back catalogue.
 

Mythopoeika

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Interesting video here from Brian May which I think is well worth a watch.. he talks about the distinction between people suffering only mild (or no) symptoms and people suffering the severest symptoms.



As an aside, I hope Brian is ok too, I'm a tad worried when I watch his little videos but maybe that's just me. Take care, Mr May.
The virus particularly seems to target men. Far more men than women are dying after catching it.
Also, caucasians seem to be more susceptible than people from the far East or Africa.
It could almost be a bioweapon... almost.
 
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The virus particularly seems to target men. Far more men than women are dying after catching it.
Also, caucasians seem to be more susceptible than people from the far East or Africa.
It could almost be a bioweapon... almost.
BLOODY FOREIGN ORIENTAL FEMINAZIS, COMMING OVER HERE INCAPITATING ALL OUR OBESE OLD ETONIANS WITH THEIR SUPER AIDS.
 
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I wondered if this new report would be worthwhile highlighting. A clear example of how easily infections can restart and rapidly spread?

China Closes Land Border With Russia After Surge of Imported Covid-19 Cases

Source: Caixin Global
Date: 9 April, 2020

China-Russia land border crossings were temporarily closed after a surge of imported cases of Covid-19, Chinese state-run CCTV reported Wednesday.

Heilongjiang, China’s northernmost province which borders Russia, reported 87 imported cases of Covid-19 in the past few days, 84 of which came from Russia through its northeastern land border. Since Russia shut down international flights earlier this month, the land border between the Russian city of Vladivostok and the Chinese city of Suifenhe had become one of the few entry points for Chinese living in Russia to come home.

Imported infections have become a major threat for rekindling the virus in China after the epidemic began to ease in the country and lockdowns generally came to an end, including the 76-day isolation of China’s epicenter Wuhan. As of Tuesday, there were 1,045 imported cases reported in China from countries around the world, according to the National Health Commission.

[...]

There have been 8,672 cases of coronavirus infections reported in Russia and 63 deaths, relatively low compared with other nations in Europe and the U.S. But Russia’s cases have spiked in recent days, with 1,175 new infections reported Wednesday, a record one-day increase.

[...]

https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-0...rge-of-imported-covid-19-cases-101540223.html
 
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Some stats from America -
Hell is Coming: Here is the Mathematical Proof
As we should expect, the feedback to this publication has been polarised. See, for example, comments directly following the published report.

Interesting though and thanks for bringing attention to same.

Separately, this is a highly recommended and lengthy article. It addresses the issue of reliance on one, or more, statistical models.

America’s most influential coronavirus model just revised its estimates downward. But not every model agrees.

Source: The Washington Post
Date: 8 April, 2020

A leading forecasting model used by the White House to chart the coronavirus pandemic predicted Monday that the United States may need fewer hospital beds, ventilators and other equipment than previously projected and that some states may reach their peak of covid-19 deaths sooner than expected.

[...]

By Wednesday morning, the model had been revised even more dramatically downward. It now predicts a total of 60,400 U.S. deaths by August and forecasts the peak of those deaths arriving in just four days on April 12, instead of April 16 as previously projected. Experts, however, have noted that this particular model’s numbers and projections — while used widely — have been consistently lower than those of other models..

Experts and state leaders, however, continued to steel themselves for grim weeks ahead, noting that the revised model created by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington conflicts with many other models showing higher equipment shortages, deaths and projected peaks.

[...]

This is how starkly models can differ.

Local leaders in the District said on Friday that their model estimates the outbreak in the nation’s capital will peak June 28. The IHME model predicts the peak is coming in just days, on April 16. The District’s model predicts hospitals will need 1,453 ventilators at the peak. IHME predicts a need for only 107. The District is using the IHME model as a best-case scenario and the more dire model to prepare for a likely surge

[...]

“If the federal government is really making these kinds of life-or-death decisions on a single model and on only on the lower end of that model, that’s scary,” said one state official.

[...]

While their original model relied only on Wuhan’s curve, the updated model now incorporates curves from seven regions from Italy and Spain where epidemics have also peaked.

[...]

Murray agreed with the critique of others that multiple models should be used.

“I could not agree more,” Murray said. “What we’ve learned from 30 years of weather forecasting, even Netflix predictions for movies … you make better predictions when using multiple models.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...its-estimates-downward-not-every-model-agrees
 

Trevp666

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Todays NHS report into covid-19 deaths has been released.
A bit of number crunching seems to indicate that (as I pencilled in previously) Saturday was our 'death peak'.
The total figure of 765 is primarily made up of deaths from the past week, with the previous few weeks showing late reports in 1s and 2s, here and there.

(Existing deaths + 'new' deaths = new total)
Thurs 673+30=703
Fri 753+31=784
Sat 893+47=940
Sun 862+57=919
Mon 613+100=713
Tue 135+284=416
Wed 140 (Weds count is incomplete - tomorrows report will show about the same amount again to add on)

I fully expect the BBC to report it in grim faced fashion as "765 new deaths yesterday...."
 
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