COVID-19 (Wuhan Coronavirus): The Disease & Its Spread (Per Se)

Schrodinger's Zebra

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I was at my GP surgery a few days ago (no, don't all run away, I don't have "the virus") and I was somewhat perplexed by the range of tests that were carried out.

Temperature and checking my ears, fine (I was there for a suspected sinus infection) but she also took my blood pressure and stuck that thing on the end of my finger (blood oxygen I think?) - these aren't the 'standard' tests I'm accustomed to when presenting with such an illness (and unfortunately I am accustomed to presenting with sinus/chest/ear infections!)

So it got me wondering... are GPs (well it was a nurse practitioner actually) surreptitiously testing for signs of the coronavirus even on patients who aren't asking about it?
 

blessmycottonsocks

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Twelve more cases confirmed in England - including someone who has "no relevant travel". It's arrived, folks.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51697991
The case in Haslemere - only a short distance from me, is particularly worrying, as the man had not travelled abroad recently and, to the best of his knowledge, hadn't been in any contact with any people returning from the infected areas.
 

INT21

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It seems a positive case has just been identified in Ilkley.
 

brownmane

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I'll have to continue my reading later. I'm off to work, but I want to post this link to The Passionate Eye doc that I saw last night regarding the virus and Wuhan. Some of the video clips in the doc are already shown on this discussion. https://gem.cbc.ca/media/the-passionate-eye/episode-155/38e815a-01261201a67

Hope the link works for everyone, since it is a Canadian program.
Recently Canada has had 3 new cases, apparently from people travelling from Iran, as Iran apparently has numerous outbreaks its dealing with.
 

kamalktk

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"Italy reported a 50% increase in coronavirus cases Sunday, as the US further restricted travel and the famed La Scala opera house closed.

Italy's Civil Protection Authority reported the county now has 1,694 confirmed coronavirus cases, up from 1,128 confirmed cases on Saturday. Thirty-four people have died.

Italy has the most coronavirus cases of any country outside of Asia."

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/01/europe/italy-coronavirus-cases-travel-advisory/index.html
 

Schrodinger's Zebra

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And to back up my last post - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51660694
All a bit disorganised.
Utter madness. How hard can it be to have consistent advice to give to people?

Does make me wonder about the NHS '111' number in general though... if they are currently swamped by people phoning up and thinking they have the coronavirus, what about people who need to phone up about other illnesses, and can't get through?

That's the sort of knock-on effects I sometimes think about. I don't doubt that there will be people with a genuine reason to ring up, but there'll of course also be ones with the slightest sniffle or headache also phoning...
 

Lobeydosser

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111 is an oddity really in times like this - it can't help but get swamped, as how can anyone really work out what might or might not be serious about cold \flu symptoms ?
Using myself as an example - I'm back to work tomorrow with what's left of my sniffle - if it's Wuhan and others get it - well... tough really - I have literally no way to check.
If I were to phone 111 they would ask if I had been to an affected area - "No " I'd say - however - just about everyone I work with is from one of the affected areas (I work in a research centre of a University) - we have Iranians, Chinese, Italians, Koreans, Russians, Ukranians - heck I think we even have someone from Ilkley.
Now, how can I be sure none of those folk have been in touch with home recently ? - cos in a normal working week we have folk dotting about the world everyday.
And that's pretty normal in academic circles, during the SARS outbreak I worked in a Nautical College - we had students coming off planes and boats daily from Singapore, Hong Kong, India etc - with zero attempt made at infection control.
It's all just theatre really - to give the illusion of something being done- state of the art "isolation pods" ....
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/...cked-makeshift-coronavirus-isolation-pod.html

To be honest I'm not even really criticizing - it's just in the nature of the problem - kind of re-inforces something I have always believed - if you find yourself in some sort of an emergency (building fire, boat sinking, earthquake etc etc) - take note of the official advice and then make your own rational and as informed as possible decision as to the best course of action ... and then do that - even if it's is in total contradiction to what the "official" advice is.
 

Vardoger

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According to the John Hopkins map, only countries in Africa with positives are Egypt with two and Nigeria with one.
There must be some real under reporting there.
 

Mr Mischief

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Current death rate based on official figures is 3.4% and growing daily. As predicted once it's infection rate outpaces the abilities of the medical community to respond then we're going to see what we're really up against.
 

INT21

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Current death rate based on official figures is 3.4% and growing daily. As predicted once it's infection rate outpaces the abilities of the medical community to respond then we're going to see what we're really up against.
We've been here before, Spanish Flue, Ebola, AIDS.

And we are still here.

Wait ! Do I hear the sound of approaching horses ?

(Turns on appropriate Wagnerian music)
 

gordonrutter

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We've been here before, Spanish Flue, Ebola, AIDS.

And we are still here.

Wait ! Do I hear the sound of approaching horses ?

(Turns on appropriate Wagnerian music)
Spanish flu killed 30 000 000 people, 1.7% of the Worlds population.

Don’t panic but be aware.
 

Yithian

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I'm pretty dislocated from the 'expat community' in my neck o' the woods, but I do keep half an eye on what's going on and there has been growing concern from Americans flying back to the States who have found no checks being conducted on arrivals: no temperature checks, no health questionnaires, no contact details requested at any of the major airports (this is reported as true up to 2 March)--not even any signs reminding travellers of common symptoms.

The expat community is, of course, only a fraction of the total number of passengers travelling between Korea and the U.S. each day.

I'd say that the U.S. will have been statistically very lucky if they haven't had a few mild-, early-, non-symptomatic Covid-19 patients entering the country via this route: ex-pats, Korean citizens or third-country nationals passing through.

I don't want to get into the political blame game, but I will say that, if true, it is surprising that the authorities are not being more vigilant this late in the day.

If that massive and unpleasant Chinese effort delivered the world one advantage, it was the gift of time to prepare.

Edit: Apparently, they hope to have a system up and running by today (see paragraph 4 for opinion):
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/mar/2/mike-pence-italy-south-korea-coronavirus-screening/
I completely believe that the Chinese government has a) been nursing the figures, b) changed criteria for what they are measuring and c) minimised the numbers of dead and infected for economic and political reasons.

The U.S. CDC, it seems, don't trouble to be so subtle:

ESH0dcpWAAEcn2A.jpeg

They've simplly stopped reporting how many tests have been carried out.

Which, effectively, is hiding the only readily quantifiable measure of how hard they are working to uncover new cases.
 

Yithian

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I am not a man easily impressed by the actions of governments (really, I'm not), but South Korea has now administered nearly 137,000 coronavirus tests and has accelerated to processing between 11,000 and 12,000 per day. Technically, this total is since January, but in effect it is massively weighted to the past fortnight.

This, I must repeat, is part of the reason why the case numbers are so high here. I keep on saying to my colleague that finding new cases is good. We know from the statistics that the cases are there whether anybody knows about them or not; locating and isolated them will reduce future numbers significantly.

Incredibly, this seems to be going over some people's heads.

Thank the Lord I haven't needed one, but there are now also out-of-down drive-thru testing sites that can provide a result in ten to fifteen minutes.

As far as I know they're free.

These people are motivated.

There has been some major misreading of the figures for this country in the international press because since the start of this week the reporting patterm has been altered: numbers are reported twice daily, but the first number is the total for the previous day and the second is the running total for that day so far. As a result, several sources has reported 'case numbers soaring in SK', where, in fact there has been a small but non-negligible reduction for the past two days.

As I said above, I'm hopeful that now the Cultists in Daegu are all accounted for (60% positive!), figures in that city and the wider region will drop.

And the likely lethality keeps on falling given the large numbers found yet not dying.

Given death totals, Iran and Italy have either a major healthcare problem or a major under-reporting problem--or possibly both.
 
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LordRsmacker

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coronavirus - which is just another form of flu
I hate to nit-pick, but it's not though, is it? It's a NEW virus for which no-one has a natural immunity, it's not "merely" a mutated strain of seasonal influenza.

Symptoms wise it's not really any different from any heavy cold or flu.
Nope. It's mainly a fever and lack of energy, a cough, then a shortness of breath - a terminal shortness of breath if you are unlucky. None of all the snotty nastiness the flu involves.

I don't know what to think about where it came from, or whether the authorities are hamming it up, but it's obvious that despite all the fuss, the public haven't been taking in the information, just how bad this could all become. It's not bat-flu or snake-flu or anything flu, no more than Ebola is a really bad case of shitting your guts out.
We really have no idea how it WILL behave and mutate, we just THINK we know - which isn't always so. The main thing it shares with flu is droplet transmission (we think). It's not going to have a "season", so Summer won't bring a drop in cases, and a vaccine is a loooong way off. Even if it turns out that it's relatively easy for health-care pros to treat - any one of us might find ourselves being unable to get that treatment, there are precious few hospital beds as it is. There's definitely trouble ahead...
 

James_H

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It's not going to have a "season", so Summer won't bring a drop in cases
They're saying the opposite here, that it's going to be the new seasonal flu because it doesn't thrive in hot weather. That might be because hot weather is genuinely hot here - hot enough to make a difference?
 

EnolaGaia

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This may be the first confirmed case of human-to-animal transmission ...
Hong Kong Confirms Pet Dog Has Coronavirus in Suspected Human-to-Animal Transmission

The pet dog of a coronavirus patient in Hong Kong was confirmed to be infected with the disease, in a likely case of human-to-animal transmission, authorities said on Wednesday.

The canine, which belongs to a 60-year-old woman patient, had repeatedly tested "weak positive" for the new coronavirus since Friday, when it was quarantined at an animal centre.

The city's Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department (AFCD) said repeated tests suggest the dog – a Pomeranian – has "a low-level of infection".

The AFCD said experts from universities and the World Organisation for Animal Health have unanimously agreed that "it is likely to be a case of human-to-animal transmission".

The Pomeranian has not shown any novel coronavirus symptoms, it said.

New measures put in place by Hong Kong's government last Friday mean all pets infected with the coronavirus must be quarantined for 14 days. Two dogs are already in isolation. ...
FULL STORY: https://www.sciencealert.com/it-s-confirmed-a-pet-dog-has-tested-positive-to-the-new-coronavirus
 

Megadeth1977

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XBergMann

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