COVID-19 (Wuhan Coronavirus): The Disease & Its Spread (Per Se)

Lb8535

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The Chinese coronavirus is no longer at epidemic levels in the United Kingdom as the rate of community transmission has fallen, a team of Oxford University experts claim.

A study conducted by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in conjunction with Oxford University, Manchester University, and Public Health England (PHE), found that an estimated 136,000 people — 0.24 per cent of adults — are currently infected with the virus.

A surveillance rate of over 40 infected people per 10,000 is required for a disease to be declared an epidemic. The figures from the ONS place the current rate at 24 in 10,000, while a separate study from the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) found that the rate could be as low as 3 in 10,000.

Professor Carl Heneghan of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford said that the current rate of infection “suggests that, at peak, we had loads more cases than we realised,” meaning that the virus is likely less deadly than initially believed.

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/20...demic-levels-claim-oxford-university-experts/

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...9infectionsurvey/england10may2020#main-points

maximus otter
Very misleading conclusion as soon as you all leave your houses, especially those in London, start taking trains and congregating again the metric will change.
 

Trevp666

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Todays (13/5/20) NHS England 'new deaths' figures released.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

There are some interesting statistical points as 'new' deaths being reported continues to drop significantly;
I expect that before this coming weekend our daily totals will be down to tens instead of hundreds.
Todays deaths by age group;
0-19 = 0
20-39 =0
40-59 =15
60-78 =89
80+ =140

There are now multiple days, and multiple trusts, in which ZERO 'new deaths' are being reported.
Day-on-day totals (for those days with complete figures) are dropping by approx 10%.
We are still often seeing deaths which occurred several weeks ago only just now being reported.

Of the 244 reported 'new deaths' today;
121 of the 202 trusts today reported 0 new deaths (That's 60%)
11 of the 'new' deaths reported today came from University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust and the oldest of these was from April 19th
60 of the total 'new' deaths are reports which are over a week old.
The oldest reported 'new' death is from Chelsea and Westminster Hospital NHS Foundation Trust from March 27th (many weeks ago - not sure how that is classified as 'new'?)
Just 2 trusts reported 10 or more 'new' deaths, accounting for 21 of todays total (that's 0.99% of the trusts accounting for 8.6% of the total)

Below I show my running totals for
existing deaths + new deaths = new totals since Thursday April 2nd (the date I started logging the numbers officially released).

T 811+0=811
F 615+0=615
S 1105+0=1105 (Saturday April 4th)
S 1091+3=1094
M 939+1=940
T 808+0=808
W 887+1=888
T 777+0=777
F 731+2=733
S 769+1=770 (April 11th)
S 712+0=712
M 688+0=688
T 640+2=642
W 681+0=681
T 627+1=628
F 603+0=603
S 563+4=567 (April 18th)
S 516+2=518
M 552+1=553
T 477+2=479
W 482+2=484
T 441+3=444
F 424+5=429
S 381+2=383 (April 25th)
S 369+4=373
M 336+3=339
T 336+0=336
W 315+2=317
T 298+1=299
F 288+8=296
S 258+2=260 (May 2nd)
S 237+3=240
M 243+2=245
T 238+2=240
W 233+8=241
T 222+7=229
F 177+11=188
S 153+19=172 (May 9th)
S 135+27=162
M 44+72=116
T-------------40

With the continued decrease in numbers it is now clear that the peak of deaths was Saturday April 4th (currently showing a total of 1105. I consider it unlikely that we will see more than a handful of extra deaths to add to this number in total over the coming weeks).
As previously mentioned though, there appears to have been an inconsistency with some of the reported figures before April 8th so there is equal validity for the 8th as being the 'peak deaths' date. Either way, we are indeed well past the peak.
Tuesday this week (yesterday) showing 40 - however, as the daily figure is communicated to NHS England at 5pm each day the total for the whole of yesterday is not complete.
 

Ogdred Weary

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Sorry Trev, are you saying of 244 deaths reported/recorded yesterday, only 40 actually occurred yesterday?
 

Trevp666

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EnolaGaia

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New survey research adds weight to the previously suggested connection between COVID-19 severity / mortality and Vitamin D.
Vitamin D Determines Severity in COVID-19: Researchers Urge Government to Change Advice

Researchers from Trinity College Dublin are calling on the government in Ireland to change recommendations for vitamin D supplements.

A new publication from Dr. Eamon Laird and Professor Rose Anne Kenny, School of Medicine, and the Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA), in collaboration with Professor Jon Rhodes at University of Liverpool, highlights the association between vitamin D levels and mortality from COVID-19.

The authors of the article, just published in the Irish Medical Journal, analyzed all European adult population studies, completed since 1999, which measured vitamin D and compared vitamin D and death rates from COVID-19. ...

This study shows that, counter intuitively, countries at lower latitude and typically sunny countries, such as Spain and Northern Italy, had low concentrations of vitamin D and high rates of vitamin D deficiency. These countries also experienced the highest infection and death rates in Europe.

The northern latitude countries of Norway, Finland, and Sweden, have higher vitamin D levels despite less UVB sunlight exposure, because supplementation and fortification of foods is more common. These Nordic countries have lower COVID-19 infection and death rates. The correlation between low vitamin D levels and death from COVID-19 is statistically significant.

The authors propose that, whereas optimizing vitamin D levels will certainly benefit bone and muscle health, the data suggests that it is also likely to reduce serious COVID-19 complications. This may be because vitamin D is important in regulation and suppression of the inflammatory cytokine response, which causes the severe consequences of COVID-19 and ‘acute respiratory distress syndrome’ associated with ventilation and death. ...
FULL STORY: https://scitechdaily.com/vitamin-d-...researchers-urge-government-to-change-advice/
 

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Sweden has extended it's travel advisory until 15th July so all international holidays are cancelled. The Government has also advised (which is their way of making a rule) that no-one travels further than 1 or 2 hours from their home by car. So travelling up and down the country to visit relatives or to go to your country house is a no-go. That won't stop people doing it of course - for example, my parents-in-law who have a country house 7 hours north of here. They will certainly still go, justifying it by saying that they won't meet anyone else, the house is self-sufficient, thy have food in the freezer etc.

A huge number of Swedish families have a second home in the countryside and I can imagine that as no-one can travel overseas this summer, they will all be using their country houses. Which means spreading the virus even more to remote areas. I presume that anyone under, let's say 50, will probably stay at home but the over 50's who have an over inflated sense of self-importance and egotiostical nature will probably just go anyway and hope no-one finds out.
 

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As another piece of anecdata about the early spread, I had a long period of coughing late last year, and about a week of fever combined with debilitating fatigue. The cough persisted afterwards for quite some time, and I eventually went to a doctor about it. Anyway, I was rooting about for a particular piece of paper last night, and came across the chest x-ray I had taken then. I'm not a medical doctor, so I don't know how to interpret the image, but the interesting thing for me is the date: 31 October. And, remember, this was after weeks of coughing - I've just tracked down an email to my boss that says I was really ill on October 4 - I think that was after the week I took off due to the fever.

Now, of course, I can't be sure this was caused by Covid-19, but I'd never experienced anything like that before. I was, and still am, based in Saigon.

Incidentally, Vietnam has still to record a single death from Covid-19 (although there is a British pilot who has been ill for weeks, now, and is in a very grave condition: reports say he will need a lung transplant, poor bloke.) The total reported cases is in the low 200s. That is a tremendous achievement for such a relatively poor country, and it should lead to a lot of questions being asked of richer countries such as the UK, USA and Russia as to just how they allowed the situation to get so bad. The lockdown here has effectively been removed (although I think cinemas are still closed). I'm back teaching in-person in the classroom, and we have even been told we don't need to wear masks in the classroom. To all intents and purposes, life is back to normal. (Unless you count not being able to enter the country under any but a very limited set of circumstances.) It certainly seems to support the argument that locking down early and severely is an effective strategy, and in our case at least seems to allow for a relatively rapid easing of restrictions.
 

Cochise

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As another piece of anecdata about the early spread, I had a long period of coughing late last year, and about a week of fever combined with debilitating fatigue. The cough persisted afterwards for quite some time, and I eventually went to a doctor about it. Anyway, I was rooting about for a particular piece of paper last night, and came across the chest x-ray I had taken then. I'm not a medical doctor, so I don't know how to interpret the image, but the interesting thing for me is the date: 31 October. And, remember, this was after weeks of coughing - I've just tracked down an email to my boss that says I was really ill on October 4 - I think that was after the week I took off due to the fever.

Now, of course, I can't be sure this was caused by Covid-19, but I'd never experienced anything like that before. I was, and still am, based in Saigon.

Incidentally, Vietnam has still to record a single death from Covid-19 (although there is a British pilot who has been ill for weeks, now, and is in a very grave condition: reports say he will need a lung transplant, poor bloke.) The total reported cases is in the low 200s. That is a tremendous achievement for such a relatively poor country, and it should lead to a lot of questions being asked of richer countries such as the UK, USA and Russia as to just how they allowed the situation to get so bad. The lockdown here has effectively been removed (although I think cinemas are still closed). I'm back teaching in-person in the classroom, and we have even been told we don't need to wear masks in the classroom. To all intents and purposes, life is back to normal. (Unless you count not being able to enter the country under any but a very limited set of circumstances.) It certainly seems to support the argument that locking down early and severely is an effective strategy, and in our case at least seems to allow for a relatively rapid easing of restrictions.
As I've probably said before there were three possible strategies. All the strategies have worked in some places round the world, and I think the common denominator is deciding what to do very early and then sticking to it.

The only worry with the lockdown approach is that it might just postpone the problem - although there is not much evidence of that so far, hopefully it's not the case.
 
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Cochise

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In case the above looks inconsistent with my other posts about lockdown, my argument with the UK's lockdown was that it was imposed after track and trace and social distancing had been tried, so there already were far too many infected people. In addition the change of direction was made too early to see if the social distancing had been effective. It looked to me - still looks - like panic. And of course based on - lets be polite and say 'dubious' - advice. The same panic caused the hospitals to send infected patients to care homes. I won't even start on the constantly changing and rarely achieved testing targets.

I'll re-iterate and say I think the original reason for the UK lockdown - that our NHS was not prepared - had some justification, even if I disagree with it. What is distressing me is the thought of the consequences of the very prolonged lockdown which now looks inevitable. I haven't much doubt that when the dust settles the UK will be seen to have performed distinctly worse than other comparable countries. What were we doing in February to prepare ourselves? It seems like 'nothing'.

And I'm still incredulous that NO measures were taken to try and vet international travellers. There's absolutely no point in doing it now.
 
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Mythopoeika

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And I'm still incredulous that NO measures were taken to try and vet international travellers. There's absolutely no point in doing it now.
Indeed.
 

Cochise

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WHO now admits that Covid19 may never go and could become just another endemic virus.
In other words, it cannot be stopped and maybe hanging on for some ultimate vaccine and a degree of herd immunity is the only way out of the pandemic.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-52643682
Uh-huh. As sensible people were saying at the start, I seem to recall. That's what happens with most viruses - we only have vaccines for a few. But - we won't know who was right and wrong for at least a year. It could die away like SARS and MERS - but if it doesn't it's so widespread now I expect we'll just have to get used to it.
 

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This is the Health Service Journal announcement:

The alert was issued to GPs in North London by their clinical commissioning group. It has been sent to doctors more widely and is confirmed in a separate “urgent alert” issued last night by the Paediatric Intensive Care Society.

The alert to GPs, marked “significant alert” states: “Please refer children presenting with these symptoms as a matter of urgency.”

Both messages said: “The cases have in common overlapping features of toxic shock syndrome and atypical Kawasaki Disease with blood parameters consistent with severe COVID-19 in children.
Looks like there is definitely some substance to this, although thankfully, exceptionally rare:

Coronavirus: Children affected by rare Kawasaki-like disease

Source: BBC News
Date: 14 May, 2020

Scores of UK and US children have been affected by a rare inflammatory disease linked to coronavirus.

In a tiny number of children it can cause serious complications, with some needing intensive care.

Up to 100 children in the UK have been affected and studies suggest the same reaction is being seen in children elsewhere in Europe.

It is likely to be caused by a delayed immune response to the virus which looks like Kawasaki disease.

In April, NHS doctors were told to look out for a rare but dangerous reaction in children.

This was prompted by eight children becoming ill in London, including a 14-year-old who died.

They all had similar symptoms when they were admitted to Evelina London Children's Hospital, including a high fever, rash, red eyes, swelling and general pain.

Most of the children had no major lung or breathing problems, although seven were put on a ventilator to help improve heart and circulation issues.

Doctors are describing it as a "new phenomenon" similar to Kawasaki disease shock syndrome - a rare condition that mainly affects children under the age of five. Symptoms include a rash, swollen glands in the neck and dry and cracked lips.

[...]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52648557
 

Trevp666

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Todays (14/5/20) NHS England 'new deaths' figures released.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

There are some interesting statistical points as 'new' deaths being reported continues to drop significantly;
I expect that before this coming weekend our daily totals will be down to tens instead of hundreds.

Todays figures and notable statistics;
207 reported 'new' deaths today;
Day-on-day totals (for those days with complete figures) are dropping by approx 10%.
We are still often seeing deaths which occurred several weeks ago only just now being reported.
135 of the 202 trusts today reported 0 new deaths (That's 67%)
16 of the 'new' deaths reported today came from University Hospitals of Leicester NHS Trust and the oldest of these was from May 6th
22 of the total 'new' deaths are reports which are over a week old.
The oldest reported 'new' death is from Wiltshire Health & Care - Savernake Community Hospital, from April 4th (many weeks ago - not sure how that is classified as 'new'?)
Just 2 trusts reported 10 or more 'new' deaths, accounting for 26 of todays total (that's 0.99% of the trusts accounting for 12.5% of the total)
Todays deaths by age group;
0-19 = 0
20-39 = 3
40-59 = 12
60-78 = 73
80+ = 19

We are well beyond the 'peak' now, which occurred around the 4th - 8th April.
Wednesday this week (yesterday) showing 47 - however, as the daily figure is communicated to NHS England at 5pm each day the total for the whole of yesterday is not complete.

Below I show my running totals for;
Existing deaths + New deaths = New totals
(since Thursday April 2nd, the date I started logging the numbers officially released).

T 811+0=811
F 615+0=615
S 1105+1=1106 (Saturday April 4th)
S 1094+0=1094
M 940+0=940
T 808+0=808
W 888+1=889
T 777+1=778
F 733+0=733
S 770+0=770 (April 11th)
S 712+2=714
M 688+1=689
T 642+0=642
W 681+1=682
T 628+1=629
F 603+1=604
S 567+0=567 (April 18th)
S 518+0=518
M 553+1=554
T 479+0=479
W 484+2=486
T 444+1=445
F 429+0=429
S 383+1=384 (April 25th)
S 373+0=373
M 339+0=339
T 336+2=338
W 317+0=317
T 299+2=301
F 296+2=298
S 260+0=260 (May 2nd)
S 240+1=241
M 245+0=245
T 240+1=241
W 241+3=244
T 229+4=233
F 188+5=193
S 172+12=184 (May 9th)
S 162+12=174
M 116+20=136
T 40+82=122
W -----------47

(Figures supplied by NHS England date back to the beginning of March when the UK recorded it's first day with more than 50 deaths.
The figures released daily include deaths from the day on which they happened, so can be from any previous day NOT from just within the past 24 hours)
 

Lb8535

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In case the above looks inconsistent with my other posts about lockdown, my argument with the UK's lockdown was that it was imposed after track and trace and social distancing had been tried, so there already were far too many infected people. In addition the change of direction was made too early to see if the social distancing had been effective. It looked to me - still looks - like panic. And of course based on - lets be polite and say 'dubious' - advice. The same panic caused the hospitals to send infected patients to care homes. I won't even start on the constantly changing and rarely achieved testing targets.

I'll re-iterate and say I think the original reason for the UK lockdown - that our NHS was not prepared - had some justification, even if I disagree with it. What is distressing me is the thought of the consequences of the very prolonged lockdown which now looks inevitable. I haven't much doubt that when the dust settles the UK will be seen to have performed distinctly worse than other comparable countries. What were we doing in February to prepare ourselves? It seems like 'nothing'.

And I'm still incredulous that NO measures were taken to try and vet international travellers. There's absolutely no point in doing it now.
I think that lockdown can be useful response - the goal is to keep everyone in one place for the normal lifespan of the virus (modified clause to forestall of of you who will respond that the virus lives essentially indefinitely when cold and frozen). Lockdown means you don't go out of the house. Period. In China they managed this by having suitably protected people delivering food. I imagine you ate gratefully what they delivered. They also transported people showing symptoms to a quarantine facility. After X days, I would imagine everyone is tested say twice because the downside risk is so high, and anyone without antibodies is also transported to the separate facility. During this period people are given a portion of the funds they would normally have earned. They're not going to be spending much aside from rent and utilities. Essential workers (which would not include amazon delivery people) would have to be tested daily. This scheme would have cost the western countries significantly less than what they just spent. Of course we'll never do it because our citizens are not used to being told No.

So yes, it will continue as a flu-type epidemic with the background of well-researched treatments and a vaccine. I do hope that places like New Zealand are putting all arrivals through a supervised quarantine and testing, and that includes, especially, the general aviation arrivals.

And those of us who have an infinite downsiide risk will be in our homes for fucking ever. I was hoping to get to the UK to walk some Roman roads. Not gonna happen.
 

Cochise

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I think that lockdown can be useful response - the goal is to keep everyone in one place for the normal lifespan of the virus (modified clause to forestall of of you who will respond that the virus lives essentially indefinitely when cold and frozen). Lockdown means you don't go out of the house. Period. In China they managed this by having suitably protected people delivering food. I imagine you ate gratefully what they delivered. They also transported people showing symptoms to a quarantine facility. After X days, I would imagine everyone is tested say twice because the downside risk is so high, and anyone without antibodies is also transported to the separate facility. During this period people are given a portion of the funds they would normally have earned. They're not going to be spending much aside from rent and utilities. Essential workers (which would not include amazon delivery people) would have to be tested daily. This scheme would have cost the western countries significantly less than what they just spent. Of course we'll never do it because our citizens are not used to being told No.

So yes, it will continue as a flu-type epidemic with the background of well-researched treatments and a vaccine. I do hope that places like New Zealand are putting all arrivals through a supervised quarantine and testing, and that includes, especially, the general aviation arrivals.

And those of us who have an infinite downsiide risk will be in our homes for fucking ever. I was hoping to get to the UK to walk some Roman roads. Not gonna happen.
Lockdown clearly has worked in some countries, and not in others. It has to go hand in hand with monitoring travellers, and it has to start early. It may be that it was never going to work in the UK because of the sheer numbers travelling in February / March. I don't think the Kiwis or the Aussies are any more keen on being told 'No' than the Brits.

As I said above, moral seems at this moment to be to choose your strategy early and stick to it.
 

EnolaGaia

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Pangolins are repeatedly cited as possible intermediate hosts through which COVID-19 originated / progressed from bats to humans. This new research fails to support that hypothesis. However ...

I'm confused as to why this Chinese research team conducted their study using Malayan pangolins rather than the pangolin species native to southern China (and hence more likely to have served as intermediate hosts for something that erupted in Wuhan).
New Genetic Analysis Shows COVID-19 Coronavirus Did Not Spill Over From Pangolins (Scaly Anteaters)

Mammals known as scaly anteaters are natural hosts of coronaviruses, but are not likely the direct source of the recent outbreak in humans, according to a study published today (May 14, 2020) in the open-access journal PLOS Pathogens by Jinping Chen of the Guangdong Institute of Applied Biological Resources, and colleagues. ...

Last December, an outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) emerged in Wuhan, China. Recent studies have shown that severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) — the virus that causes COVID-19 — could have originated in bats. But SARS-CoV-2 may have spilled over to humans from another intermediate host, and the source of this virus is still unknown. ... In the new study, Chen and colleagues examined whether pangolins could be an intermediate host for SARS-CoV-2.

The researchers assembled the whole genome of a coronavirus identified in two groups of sick Malayan pangolins. The results suggest that the pangolin coronavirus is genetically associated with SARS-CoV-2 and a group of bat coronaviruses. But further analysis suggests that SARS-CoV-2 did not arise directly from the pangolin coronavirus. ...

The authors state, “Pangolins could be natural hosts of Betacoronaviruses with an unknown potential to infect humans. However, our study does not support that SARS-CoV-2 evolved directly from the pangolin-CoV.” ...
FULL STORY: https://scitechdaily.com/genetic-an...ot-spill-over-from-pangolins-scaly-anteaters/
 

EnolaGaia

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As another piece of anecdata about the early spread, I had a long period of coughing late last year, and about a week of fever combined with debilitating fatigue. The cough persisted afterwards for quite some time, and I eventually went to a doctor about it. Anyway, I was rooting about for a particular piece of paper last night, and came across the chest x-ray I had taken then. I'm not a medical doctor, so I don't know how to interpret the image, but the interesting thing for me is the date: 31 October. And, remember, this was after weeks of coughing - I've just tracked down an email to my boss that says I was really ill on October 4 - I think that was after the week I took off due to the fever.

Now, of course, I can't be sure this was caused by Covid-19, but I'd never experienced anything like that before. I was, and still am, based in Saigon.

Incidentally, Vietnam has still to record a single death from Covid-19 (although there is a British pilot who has been ill for weeks, now, and is in a very grave condition: reports say he will need a lung transplant, poor bloke.) The total reported cases is in the low 200s. That is a tremendous achievement for such a relatively poor country, and it should lead to a lot of questions being asked of richer countries such as the UK, USA and Russia as to just how they allowed the situation to get so bad. The lockdown here has effectively been removed (although I think cinemas are still closed). I'm back teaching in-person in the classroom, and we have even been told we don't need to wear masks in the classroom. To all intents and purposes, life is back to normal. (Unless you count not being able to enter the country under any but a very limited set of circumstances.) It certainly seems to support the argument that locking down early and severely is an effective strategy, and in our case at least seems to allow for a relatively rapid easing of restrictions.

That's really interesting. I've read reports that it's believed to have emerged in October - perhaps it spread far faster than was generally believed.

I know that on Feb. 16, I suddenly developed one of the strangest illnesses I've ever had. Fever (which is rare for me) then painful sore throat, swollen glands (so much so that I could barely swallow) and I couldn't sleep for coughing. Then a nasty case of conjunctivitis. By Feb 26th I was having trouble breathing. At some point, I realized I couldn't taste anything, and not in the ordinary way that happens during a cold. Everything tasted like cardboard. These symptoms waxed and waned for more than 40 days. Just when I thought it was improving, it would worsen again. My husband came down with it, too - he went to the clinic but tested negative for flu.

These are all symptoms reported by people who've had covid- 19, but at the time I first became ill, no one was in the US was much worried about it at all. We only had a few confirmed cases then.
 

Ogdred Weary

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That's really interesting. I've read reports that it's believed to have emerged in October - perhaps it spread far faster than was generally believed.

I know that on Feb. 16, I suddenly developed one of the strangest illnesses I've ever had. Fever (which is rare for me) then painful sore throat, swollen glands (so much so that I could barely swallow) and I couldn't sleep for coughing. Then a nasty case of conjunctivitis. By Feb 26th I was having trouble breathing. At some point, I realized I couldn't taste anything, and not in the ordinary way that happens during a cold. Everything tasted like cardboard. These symptoms waxed and waned for more than 40 days. Just when I thought it was improving, it would worsen again. My husband came down with it, too - he went to the clinic but tested negative for flu.

These are all symptoms reported by people who've had covid- 19, but at the time I first became ill, no one was in the US was much worried about it at all. We only had a few confirmed cases then.
It does sound very much like you had it, was your or your husband's sense of smell effected at all? That seems to be quite common.
 

Ringo

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I wonder if Covid parties will be a thing - just like Pox Parties used to be?

Part of me kind of wants to get it, just to get it over with. Although I may have had a mild strain of it a few months ago.
 

Ulalume

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It does sound very much like you had it, was your or your husband's sense of smell effected at all? That seems to be quite common.
Yes, it was, though at the time we put this down to having allergies, as this happened during cedar season. The loss of taste was the really odd thing, though. It was just gone.
 

Ogdred Weary

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Yes, it was, though at the time we put this down to having allergies, as this happened during cedar season. The loss of taste was the really odd thing, though. It was just gone.
As a fully qualified Internet Expert (the best kind), I can say with 100% certainty that you had it.

I wonder if Covid parties will be a thing - just like Pox Parties used to be?

Part of me kind of wants to get it, just to get it over with. Although I may have had a mild strain of it a few months ago.
Quite, I'd prefer to get it out of the way too. It's likely we will all get it sooner or later.
 

Trevp666

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Todays (15/5/20) NHS England 'new deaths' figures released.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Todays figures and notable statistics;
186 reported 'new' deaths today;
Numbers dwindling away now.
Day-on-day totals (for those days with complete figures) are dropping by approx 10%.
We are still often seeing deaths which occurred several weeks ago only just now being reported.
132 of the 202 trusts today reported 0 new deaths (That's 65%)
No trust reported more than 10 deaths. No single trust stands out as reporting a greater number than any other.
18 of the total 'new' deaths are reports which are over a week old.
The oldest reported 'new' death is from Wiltshire Health and Care - Savernake Community Hospital, from April 10th (many weeks ago - not sure how that is classified as 'new'?)

Todays deaths by age group;
0-19 = 1
20-39 = 5
40-59 = 18
60-78 = 64
80+ = 98

We are well beyond the 'peak' now, which occurred around the 4th - 8th April.
Thursday this week (yesterday) showing 45 - however, as the daily figure is communicated to NHS England at 5pm each day the total for the whole of yesterday is not complete.

Below I show my running totals for;
Existing deaths + New deaths = New totals (If no 'new' to add then no calculation has been entered)
(since Thursday April 2nd, the date I started logging the numbers officially released).

T 811
F 615
S 1106 (Saturday April 4th)
S 1094
M 940
T 808
W 889
T 778
F 733+1=734
S 770 (April 11th)
S 714
M 689
T 642
W 682
T 629
F 604
S 567 (April 18th)
S 518
M 554+1=555
T 479
W 486
T 445
F 429+1=430
S 384 (April 25th)
S 373
M 339
T 338
W 317+1=318
T 301
F 298+1=299
S 260+3=263 (May 2nd)
S 241+1=242
M 245+1=246
T 241+2=243
W 244+2=246
T 233+4=237
F 193+2=195
S 184+2=186 (May 9th)
S 174+8=182
M 136+13=149
T 122+32=154
W 47+66=113
T -------------45

(Figures supplied by NHS England date back to the beginning of March when the UK recorded it's first day with more than 50 deaths.
The figures released daily include deaths from the day on which they happened, so can be from any previous day NOT from just within the past 24 hours)
 

Ogdred Weary

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Todays (15/5/20) NHS England 'new deaths' figures released.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Todays figures and notable statistics;
186 reported 'new' deaths today;
Numbers dwindling away now.
Day-on-day totals (for those days with complete figures) are dropping by approx 10%.
We are still often seeing deaths which occurred several weeks ago only just now being reported.
132 of the 202 trusts today reported 0 new deaths (That's 65%)
No trust reported more than 10 deaths. No single trust stands out as reporting a greater number than any other.
18 of the total 'new' deaths are reports which are over a week old.
The oldest reported 'new' death is from Wiltshire Health and Care - Savernake Community Hospital, from April 10th (many weeks ago - not sure how that is classified as 'new'?)

Todays deaths by age group;
0-19 = 1
20-39 = 5
40-59 = 18
60-78 = 64
80+ = 98

We are well beyond the 'peak' now, which occurred around the 4th - 8th April.
Thursday this week (yesterday) showing 45 - however, as the daily figure is communicated to NHS England at 5pm each day the total for the whole of yesterday is not complete.

Below I show my running totals for;
Existing deaths + New deaths = New totals (If no 'new' to add then no calculation has been entered)
(since Thursday April 2nd, the date I started logging the numbers officially released).

T 811
F 615
S 1106 (Saturday April 4th)
S 1094
M 940
T 808
W 889
T 778
F 733+1=734
S 770 (April 11th)
S 714
M 689
T 642
W 682
T 629
F 604
S 567 (April 18th)
S 518
M 554+1=555
T 479
W 486
T 445
F 429+1=430
S 384 (April 25th)
S 373
M 339
T 338
W 317+1=318
T 301
F 298+1=299
S 260+3=263 (May 2nd)
S 241+1=242
M 245+1=246
T 241+2=243
W 244+2=246
T 233+4=237
F 193+2=195
S 184+2=186 (May 9th)
S 174+8=182
M 136+13=149
T 122+32=154
W 47+66=113
T -------------45

(Figures supplied by NHS England date back to the beginning of March when the UK recorded it's first day with more than 50 deaths.
The figures released daily include deaths from the day on which they happened, so can be from any previous day NOT from just within the past 24 hours)
There were not zero deaths yesterday, your green line lied to me. Your line drawing is unreliable, do you have any conception of the economic and psychological damage you have caused to the forum?
 

Ringo

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Under 400 in Intensive care now in Sweden. The number of deaths are dropping to around 40-50 per day once the late reported ones come in.
Sweden 15:5.png
 

Trevp666

It was like that when I got here.........honest!!!
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There were not zero deaths yesterday, your green line lied to me. Your line drawing is unreliable, do you have any conception of the economic and psychological damage you have caused to the forum?
I can only apologise.
I've tried to tell the green line before about doing that, but does it listen? Does it bo****ks!
That being said though, I did add a caveat in a slightly later post in which I clarified that the green line was straight when in reality it should have been a slight curve, steeper initially, and then tapering off, as we predicted that there are unlikely to be any days when zero deaths occur going forward, we are more likely to see a continued daily number of cases in the 5 - 30 range for some few weeks.
So don't go splashing your cash on any exotic dancers holidays just yet.
 

Xanatic*

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In Sweden they will try treating people in pressurised chambers. Not in airplanes though.
 
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