COVID-19 (Wuhan Coronavirus): The Disease & Its Spread (Per Se)

Ogdred Weary

Resurrectionist
Joined
Apr 2, 2012
Messages
3,695
Reaction score
6,404
Points
209
I can only apologise.
I've tried to tell the green line before about doing that, but does it listen? Does it bo****ks!
That being said though, I did add a caveat in a slightly later post in which I clarified that the green line was straight when in reality it should have been a slight curve, steeper initially, and then tapering off, as we predicted that there are unlikely to be any days when zero deaths occur going forward, we are more likely to see a continued daily number of cases in the 5 - 30 range for some few weeks.
So don't go splashing your cash on any exotic dancers holidays just yet.
No, I am the Lowest Common Denominator and a Simple Believer, you have shaken my blind faith in authority figures to the core. If this is wrong, what else? The Earth isn't flat, it's one dimensional?
 

EnolaGaia

I knew the job was dangerous when I took it ...
Staff member
Joined
Jul 19, 2004
Messages
16,389
Reaction score
21,388
Points
309
Location
Out of Bounds
The rush to develop and deploy a vaccine continues, with authorities attempting to maintain some semblance of order and caution ...
NIH director: Large-scale vaccine testing expected by July

Having a COVID-19 vaccine by January is “a stretch goal,” but the head of the National Institutes of Health is gearing up for a master experiment to rapidly tell if any really work.

At least four or five possible vaccines “look pretty promising” and one or two will be ready to begin large-scale testing by July with others to follow soon, NIH Director Francis Collins told The Associated Press.

“Your big challenge now is to go big and everybody is about ready for that. And we want to be sure that happens in a coordinated way,” Collins said in an interview late Thursday.

The NIH in partnership with some of the world’s largest pharmaceutical companies is creating a master plan that vaccine makers can follow. Separately, the Trump administration is working on how to produce possible vaccines now, a huge gamble before anyone knows which ones will pan out. The goal is to have 300 million doses available to distribute to Americans by January.

Collins called it a “very bold plan ... a stretch goal if there ever was one,” but one he’s optimistic the science side can help speed.

But he added: “If we can get this vaccine out there even a day sooner than otherwise we might have, that’s going to matter to somebody.”

Despite all the emphasis on speed, Collins stressed that “no corners are going to be cut” on safety and scientists will be carefully looking for side effects.

Worldwide, about a dozen vaccine candidates are in the first stages of testing or poised to begin, small safety studies in people to look for obvious problems and whether the shots rev up the immune system. Among those getting the most attention are one created by the NIH and Moderna Inc., and a different type created by Britain’s Oxford University.

Current tests “are looking pretty good,” Collins said. “But until you put it into the real world and check it out you don’t really know. You can’t skip over that really, really hard part of testing this in thousands and thousands of people.” ...
FULL STORY: https://apnews.com/756e5b743058701c4a2ebefd0af1ade4
 

EnolaGaia

I knew the job was dangerous when I took it ...
Staff member
Joined
Jul 19, 2004
Messages
16,389
Reaction score
21,388
Points
309
Location
Out of Bounds
The COVID-19 virus has now been found for the first time in the Rohingya refugee camps in Bangladesh. If the virus can't be contained, camp conditions are a recipe for epidemiological disaster.
1st COVID-19 case detected in Rohingya camps in Bangladesh

The first coronavirus case has been confirmed in the crowded camps for Rohingya refugees in southern Bangladesh, where more than 1 million are taking shelter.

The infected Rohingya and a local Bangladeshi who lives in the Cox’s Bazar district who also tested positive have been isolated, Mahbub Alam Talukder, the country’s refugee commissioner, said Thursday.

Teams have been activated to treat the patients as well as trace people they may have encountered, Louise Donovan, a spokeswoman for the U.N. refugee agency, told The Associated Press.

Nationwide, Bangladesh has confirmed 18,863 cases, including 283 fatalities. But the toll is thought to be higher since adequate testing facilities are lacking in the South Asian nation of 160 million people.

Aid workers have been warning of the potential for a serious outbreak if the virus spread into the densely populated camps. Donovan said Thursday that 108 Rohingya refugees in Cox’s Bazar have been tested for the coronavirus since the beginning of April.

With about 40,000 people per square kilometer (103,600 per square mile) living in plastic shacks side by side, the 34 camps have more than 40 times Bangladesh’s average population density. Each shack is barely 10 square meters (107 square feet) and many are packed with up to 12 residents.

Some refugees remained worried, saying they lacked access to clean water and protective equipment. ...
FULL STORY: https://apnews.com/f6ad74d1c0dcfb784b5a245e762e3b3e
 

Trevp666

It was like that when I got here.........honest!!!
Joined
May 29, 2009
Messages
1,506
Reaction score
3,560
Points
169
Location
Welwyn Garden City (but oddly, not an actual city)
Todays (16/5/20) NHS England 'new deaths' figures released.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Todays figures and notable statistics;
181 reported 'new' deaths today;
Numbers dwindling away now.
Day-on-day totals (for those days with complete figures) are dropping by approx 10%.
We are still often seeing deaths which occurred several weeks ago only just now being reported.
127of the 202 trusts today reported 0 new deaths (That's 63%)
For the 2nd day, no trust reported more than 10 deaths (highest amount is 7).
No single trust stands out as reporting a greater number than any other.

11 of the total 'new' deaths are reports which are over a week old.
The oldest reported 'new' death is from University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust, from April 4th (many weeks ago - not sure how that is classified as 'new'?)

Todays deaths by age group;
0-19 = 0
20-39 = 1
40-59 = 21
60-78 = 53
80+ = 106

We are well beyond the 'peak' now, which occurred around the 4th - 8th April.
Friday this week (yesterday) showing 39 - however, as the daily figure is communicated to NHS England at 5pm each day the total for the whole of yesterday is not complete.

Below I show my running totals for;
Existing deaths + New deaths = New totals (If no 'new' to add then no calculation has been entered)
(since Thursday April 2nd, the date I started logging the numbers officially released).

T 811
F 615
S 1106+1=1107 (Saturday April 4th)
S 1094
M 940
T 808
W 889
T 778
F 734
S 770 (April 11th)
S 714
M 689
T 642+1=643
W 682
T 629+2=631
F 604
S 567 (April 18th)
S 518
M 555+1=556
T 479
W 486
T 445
F 430+1=431
S 384+1=385 (April 25th)
S 373
M 339
T 338
W 318+1=319
T 301
F 299
S 263 (May 2nd)
S 242+1=243
M 246
T 243
W 246
T 237+2=239
F 195
S 186+2=188 (May 9th)
S 182+1=183
M 149+3=152
T 154+14=168
W 113+22=135
T 45+89=134
F-----------39

(Figures supplied by NHS England date back to the beginning of March when the UK recorded it's first day with more than 50 deaths.
The figures released daily include deaths from the day on which they happened, so can be from any previous day NOT from just within the past 24 hours)
 

EnolaGaia

I knew the job was dangerous when I took it ...
Staff member
Joined
Jul 19, 2004
Messages
16,389
Reaction score
21,388
Points
309
Location
Out of Bounds
Both these two newly published reports on randomized clinical studies (one from France; the other from China) fail to provide any support for the notion that hydroxychloroquine provides any substantial benefit to COVID-19 patients.
Results From Randomized Clinical Trial Do Not Support Hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19

The anti-inflammatory drug hydroxychloroquine does not significantly reduce admission to intensive care or death in patients hospitalized with pneumonia due to covid-19, finds a study from France published by The BMJ on May 14, 2020.

A randomized clinical trial from China also published on May 14, 2020, shows that hospitalized patients with mild to moderate persistent covid-19 who received hydroxychloroquine did not clear the virus more quickly than those receiving standard care. Adverse events were higher in those who received hydroxychloroquine.

Taken together, the results do not support routine use of hydroxychloroquine for patients with covid-19. ...
For more details see:

FULL STORY: https://scitechdaily.com/results-fr...-not-support-hydroxychloroquine-for-covid-19/

PUBLISHED REPORT (French Study):
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1844

PUBLISHED REPORT (Chinese Study):
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1849
 

EnolaGaia

I knew the job was dangerous when I took it ...
Staff member
Joined
Jul 19, 2004
Messages
16,389
Reaction score
21,388
Points
309
Location
Out of Bounds
This anecdotal study from Florida has a sample size of only two, but it seems to clearly indicate scoffing at medical advice, ignoring safety measures, and trusting in God alone are no match for the COVID-19 virus.
Jupiter man skeptical of coronavirus gets infected, changes opinion

Patient urges encourages people to take virus seriously

A Jupiter man, who admits he was skeptical that the coronavirus was a real threat, has a new outlook after contracting the virus.

Around this time last month, Jupiter rideshare driver Brian Hitchens was a self-proclaimed COVID-19 skeptic.

“I thought it was maybe the government trying something, and it was kind of like they threw it out there to kinda distract us,” said Hitchens.

He made Facebook posts downplaying the seriousness and sticking to his faith, saying God is bigger than this virus will ever be.

“I'd get up in the morning and pray and trust in God for his protection, and I’d just leave it at that. There were all these masks and gloves. I thought it looks like a hysteria,” Hitchens explained.

Fast forward to this week and Hitchens has a whole new outlook from his hospital bed at Palm Beach Gardens Medical Center as a coronavirus-positive patient.

"I don’t want to see anyone go through what I went through," Hitchens said. ...

He recently took to social media about his experience, now encouraging people to take the virus seriously.

“This wasn’t some scare tactic that anybody was using. It wasn’t some made-up thing. This was a real virus you gotta take seriously,” Hitchens said.

This hits even closer to home for Hitchens after his wife was admitted to the same hospital at the same time for coronavirus.

"My wife’s on a ventilator. It’s been like that for three weeks, and it’s tough. It’s sad,” said Hitchens. ...
FULL STORY:
https://www.wptv.com/news/coronavir...-of-coronavirus-gets-infected-changes-opinion

See Also:
https://www.patheos.com/blogs/thefr...l-says-man-who-claimed-god-would-protect-him/
 

Ogdred Weary

Resurrectionist
Joined
Apr 2, 2012
Messages
3,695
Reaction score
6,404
Points
209

blessmycottonsocks

Justified & Ancient
Joined
Dec 22, 2014
Messages
4,066
Reaction score
6,404
Points
209
Location
Wessex and Mercia

Mythopoeika

I am a meat popsicle
Joined
Sep 18, 2001
Messages
39,656
Reaction score
28,856
Points
309
Location
Inside a starship, watching puny humans from afar

Trevp666

It was like that when I got here.........honest!!!
Joined
May 29, 2009
Messages
1,506
Reaction score
3,560
Points
169
Location
Welwyn Garden City (but oddly, not an actual city)
As usual, later on this afternoon I will be producing my daily update to the NHS England statistics.
I'm considering stopping posting this info though as I'm not sure if anyone seems really that interested in it?
Also the numbers are getting so low now that it hardly seems worth it.
Unless the 'second peak' comes along, but IMO that's unlikely.
Also, tomorrow I will be unlikely to produce the daily update until much later as I am returning (in a limited capacity) to work.
If anyone still finds value in the daily updates beyond today then let me know.
 

Trevp666

It was like that when I got here.........honest!!!
Joined
May 29, 2009
Messages
1,506
Reaction score
3,560
Points
169
Location
Welwyn Garden City (but oddly, not an actual city)
Todays (17/5/20) NHS England 'new deaths' figures released.
(It's getting very low now!)

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Todays figures and notable statistics;
90 reported 'new' deaths today;
Daily actual totals now reaching the point of dropping below 100 per day
167 of the 202 trusts today reported 0 new deaths (That's 83%)
For the 3rd day, no trust reported more than 10 deaths (highest amount is 7).
No single trust stands out as reporting a greater number than any other.

There are no deaths which are over a week old.
The oldest reported 'new' deaths are 2 from different sites, on this last Tuesday, May 12th

Todays deaths by age group;
0-19 = 0
20-39 = 0
40-59 = 8
60-78 = 31
80+ = 51

We are well beyond the 'peak' now, which occurred around the 4th - 8th April.
Saturday this week (yesterday) showing 33 - however, as the daily figure is communicated to NHS England at 5pm each day the total for the whole of yesterday is not complete.

Below I show my running totals for;
Existing deaths + New deaths = New totals (If no 'new' to add then no calculation has been entered)
(since Thursday April 2nd, the date I started logging the numbers officially released).

T 811
F 615
S 1107 (Saturday April 4th)
S 1094
M 940
T 808
W 889
T 778
F 734
S 770 (April 11th)
S 714
M 689
T 643
W 682
T 631
F 604
S 567 (April 18th)
S 518
M 556
T 479
W 486
T 445
F 431
S 385 (April 25th)
S 373
M 339
T 338
W 319
T 301
F 299
S 263 (May 2nd)
S 243
M 246
T 243
W 246
T 239
F 195
S 188 (May 9th)
S 183
M 152
T 168+2=170
W 135+5=140
T 134+4=138
F 39+46=85
S -----------33

(Figures supplied by NHS England date back to the beginning of March when the UK recorded it's first day with more than 50 deaths.
The figures released daily include deaths from the day on which they happened, so can be from any previous day NOT from just within the past 24 hours)
 

Lb8535

Very charming snow person
Joined
Sep 2, 2015
Messages
833
Reaction score
1,541
Points
134
Location
EST
Using sniffer dogs to find people with Covid-19:
One problem - might the dogs catch it as well?
So far, it has been contagious only to a few cats, one dog in Europe tested positive. Given the number of people with housepets who have been infected, it seems a tiny possibility. Of course dogs could catch it and be carriers, as we have not been testing dogs. I suspect the program managers have thought this through.
 

EnolaGaia

I knew the job was dangerous when I took it ...
Staff member
Joined
Jul 19, 2004
Messages
16,389
Reaction score
21,388
Points
309
Location
Out of Bounds
Meanwhile ... Russia is grappling with its seemingly belated "first wave" COVID-19 problems. There are controversies over reported statistics and the vulnerable state of medical infrastructures anywhere other than Moscow.

Here are some of the top-level points ... More details can be accessed via the link.

Coronavirus has devastated Moscow. Now it's spreading across Russia's 11 time zones to ill-funded regions

Russia hit a grim Covid-19 milestone this week: According to Johns Hopkins University, the country now ranks second in the world for confirmed coronavirus cases.

The Russian capital has been hardest hit. Of Russia's total of 281,752 confirmed cases, over half -- 142,824 -- are in Moscow, the country's coronavirus headquarters said Sunday. But the virus is now spreading across Russia's regions, an enormous landmass that covers 11 time zones and includes some of the country's most remote and impoverished places. ...

According to official statistics, the pandemic has reached all of Russia's constituent parts, from the Kaliningrad exclave between Poland and Lithuania to the remote Chukotka autonomous okrug, across the Bering Strait from Alaska. Russia's regions are also starting to report their own numbers, sometimes showing a disparity between the nationally published statistics on mortality and infections published on the stopcoronavirus.rf portal and on local government websites. ...

Russian Vice-Premier Tatiana Golikova told Russian news outlets this week that the Russian government has not manipulated statistics, but Russia's mortality figures have become a political football. ...

In Moscow, health officials hit back at media reports that it was underreporting Covid-19 fatalities, saying its data was "absolutely open." But the city's health department also acknowledged that it only counts deaths that were found through post-mortem autopsy to have been caused directly by coronavirus complications. ...
FULL STORY: https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/17/europe/russia-coronavirus-time-zones-intl/index.html
 

uair01

Justified & Ancient
Joined
Apr 12, 2005
Messages
2,571
Reaction score
2,418
Points
184
Location
Rotterdam

ThosRandomBloke

Fresh Blood
Joined
May 17, 2020
Messages
1
Reaction score
5
Points
3
As usual, later on this afternoon I will be producing my daily update to the NHS England statistics.
I'm considering stopping posting this info though as I'm not sure if anyone seems really that interested in it?
Also the numbers are getting so low now that it hardly seems worth it.
Unless the 'second peak' comes along, but IMO that's unlikely.
Also, tomorrow I will be unlikely to produce the daily update until much later as I am returning (in a limited capacity) to work.
If anyone still finds value in the daily updates beyond today then let me know.
I’ve found your updates really helpful and interesting though, clearly, I understand that you may no longer have time to keep doing them.
 

fizzy55

Junior Acolyte
Joined
Oct 18, 2014
Messages
96
Reaction score
332
Points
59
As usual, later on this afternoon I will be producing my daily update to the NHS England statistics.
I'm considering stopping posting this info though as I'm not sure if anyone seems really that interested in it?
Also the numbers are getting so low now that it hardly seems worth it.
Unless the 'second peak' comes along, but IMO that's unlikely.
Also, tomorrow I will be unlikely to produce the daily update until much later as I am returning (in a limited capacity) to work.
If anyone still finds value in the daily updates beyond today then let me know.
I'm interested Trev! Your posts have definitely helped me to keep things in perspective over the last 7 or so weeks. I do understand though, if you no longer have the time. Thank you for taking the time to do them as long as you have been able to. :)
 

Analogue Boy

The new Number 6
Joined
Aug 10, 2005
Messages
9,982
Reaction score
8,270
Points
294
As usual, later on this afternoon I will be producing my daily update to the NHS England statistics.
I'm considering stopping posting this info though as I'm not sure if anyone seems really that interested in it?
Also the numbers are getting so low now that it hardly seems worth it.
Unless the 'second peak' comes along, but IMO that's unlikely.
Also, tomorrow I will be unlikely to produce the daily update until much later as I am returning (in a limited capacity) to work.
If anyone still finds value in the daily updates beyond today then let me know.
Jesus. I haven't stopped working. if anything, I've been working hard than I usually do at work.

Thanks SHIT internet.
 

EnolaGaia

I knew the job was dangerous when I took it ...
Staff member
Joined
Jul 19, 2004
Messages
16,389
Reaction score
21,388
Points
309
Location
Out of Bounds
This newly published research could prove to be quite significant ... Micro-RNAs (miRNAs) in a host's cells often serve as the initial line of defense against pathogens. It appears that multiple of the miRNAs that target and nullify the COVID-19 virus are among the miRNAs which are naturally diminished as we age or are afflicted with the sort of "underlying conditions" mentioned as COVID-19 risk factors. This explains why patients who are older and / or have such underlying conditions have an increased mortality rate.
Tiny RNA That Should Attack COVID-19 Coronavirus Diminish With Age, Disease

A group of tiny RNA that should attack the virus causing COVID-19 when it tries to infect the body are diminished with age and chronic health problems, a decrease that likely helps explain why older individuals and those with preexisting medical conditions are vulnerable populations, investigators report.

MicroRNAs play a big role in our body in controlling gene expression, and also are a front line when viruses invade, latching onto and cutting the RNA, the genetic material of the virus, says Dr. Sadanand Fulzele, aging researcher in the Department of Medicine and Center for Healthy Aging at the Medical College of Georgia at Augusta University.

But with age and some chronic medical conditions, the attacking microRNA numbers dwindle, reducing our ability to respond to viruses, says Dr. Carlos M. Isales, co-director of the MCG Center for Healthy Aging and chief of the MCG Division of Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism.

Much like not having enough troops on the ground in an actual war, the coronavirus is then better able to do what it does naturally, which is hijack our cell machinery so it can replicate, say the researchers who report in the journal Aging and Disease what appear to be key microRNA involved in responding to this virus. They have a longer-term goal of identifying the biggest hitters and replenishing those troops. ...
FULL STORY: https://scitechdaily.com/tiny-rna-that-should-attack-covid-19-coronavirus-diminish-with-age-disease/
 

EnolaGaia

I knew the job was dangerous when I took it ...
Staff member
Joined
Jul 19, 2004
Messages
16,389
Reaction score
21,388
Points
309
Location
Out of Bounds
Here are the bibliographic particulars and abstract for the miRNA research article cited above.

Fulzele Sadanand,Sahay Bikash,Yusufu Ibrahim, et al.
COVID-19 Virulence in Aged Patients Might Be Impacted by the Host Cellular MicroRNAs Abundance/Profile.
Aging and disease, 2020, 11(3): 509-522.
Abstract
The World health organization (WHO) declared Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) a global pandemic and a severe public health crisis. Drastic measures to combat COVID-19 are warranted due to its contagiousness and higher mortality rates, specifically in the aged patient population. At the current stage, due to the lack of effective treatment strategies for COVID-19 innovative approaches need to be considered. It is well known that host cellular miRNAs can directly target both viral 3'UTR and coding region of the viral genome to induce the antiviral effect. In this study, we did in silico analysis of human miRNAs targeting SARS (4 isolates) and COVID-19 (29 recent isolates from different regions) genome and correlated our findings with aging and underlying conditions. We found 848 common miRNAs targeting the SARS genome and 873 common microRNAs targeting the COVID-19 genome. Out of a total of 848 miRNAs from SARS, only 558 commonly present in all COVID-19 isolates. Interestingly, 315 miRNAs are unique for COVID-19 isolates and 290 miRNAs unique to SARS. We also noted that out of 29 COVID-19 isolates, 19 isolates have identical miRNA targets. The COVID-19 isolates, Netherland (EPI_ISL_422601), Australia (EPI_ISL_413214), and Wuhan (EPI_ISL_403931) showed six, four, and four unique miRNAs targets, respectively. Furthermore, GO, and KEGG pathway analysis showed that COVID-19 targeting human miRNAs involved in various age-related signaling and diseases. Recent studies also suggested that some of the human miRNAs targeting COVID-19 decreased with aging and underlying conditions. GO and KEGG identified impaired signaling pathway may be due to low abundance miRNA which might be one of the contributing factors for the increasing severity and mortality in aged individuals and with other underlying conditions. Further, in vitro and in vivo studies are needed to validate some of these targets and identify potential therapeutic targets.
SOURCE: http://www.aginganddisease.org/EN/10.14336/AD.2020.0428
 

Naughty_Felid

No longer interesting
Joined
Mar 11, 2008
Messages
6,745
Reaction score
8,215
Points
294
Here are the bibliographic particulars and abstract for the miRNA research article cited above.

Fulzele Sadanand,Sahay Bikash,Yusufu Ibrahim, et al.
COVID-19 Virulence in Aged Patients Might Be Impacted by the Host Cellular MicroRNAs Abundance/Profile.
Aging and disease, 2020, 11(3): 509-522.

SOURCE: http://www.aginganddisease.org/EN/10.14336/AD.2020.0428
Thanks, EG I've really appreciated the quality of links you've posted during this crisis. Seriously.
 
Top