COVID-19 (Wuhan Coronavirus): The Disease & Its Spread (Per Se)

Trevp666

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Todays (19/6/20) NHS England 'new deaths' figures released.

Absolutely the lowest numbers since the middle of March.
Just 2 deaths yesterday.

The wording of the statement regarding the collection of the data now includes the phrase,
"The total announced file is updated daily and contains information on the deaths of patients
who have died in hospitals in England and either tested positive for COVID-19,
or where no positive test result was received for COVID-19, but COVID-19 was mentioned on their death certificate"

So the data includes deaths as with C19 even if no positive test has been done.
Disgraceful.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/


Todays figures and notable statistics;
46 reported 'new' deaths today;
Lancashire Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust reported the highest number of 'new' deaths, 5.
The oldest deaths reported today are 1 each from Blackpool Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust and Liverpool University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust from June 4th
There are only 31 trusts/facilities that have reported 'new' deaths today.
186 of the 217 trusts/facilities today have reported 0 new deaths (that is 86%)
10 'new' deaths are over a week old.
Thursday this week (yesterday) showing 2, (both were over 60) however, as the daily figure is communicated to NHS England at 5pm each day the total for the whole of yesterday is not complete.

Todays deaths by age group;
0-19 = 1
20-39 = 1
40-59 = 3
60-78 = 20
80+ = 21

Below I show my running totals for;
Existing deaths + New deaths = New totals (If no 'new' to add then no calculation has been entered)
(since Thursday April 2nd, the date I started logging the numbers officially released).

T 812
F 617
S 1110 (Saturday April 4th)
S 1096
M 942
T 812
W 897
T 784
F 739
S 777 (April 11th)
S 718
M 698
T 648
W 685
T 635
F 610
S 569 (April 18th)
S 530
M 565
T 484
W 501
T 450
F 438
S 389 (April 25th)
S 381
M 342
T 341
W 322
T 311
F 304
S 267 (May 2nd)
S 250
M 259
T 250
W 266
T 255
F 211
S 202 (May 9th)
S 195
M 165
T 183
W 157
T 166
F 162
S 166 (May 16th)
S 137
M 154
T 143
W 152
T 147
F 121
S 128 (May 23rd)
S 114
M 135
T 137
W 120
T 122
F 116
S 89 (May 30th)
S 81
M 93
T 107
W 105
T 80+2=82
F 82
S 80 (June 6th)
S 74+1=75
M 65+1=66
T 60
W 67+2=69
T 46+2=48
F 45+2=47
S 37+1=38 (June 13th)
S 50+4=54
M 45+3=48
T 35+7=42
W 13+19=32
T -------------- 2

(Figures supplied by NHS England date back to the beginning of March when the UK recorded it's first day with more than 50 deaths.
The figures released daily include deaths from the day on which they happened, so can be from any previous day NOT from just within the past 24 hours)
 

Trevp666

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Todays figures, in case you missed it (above), show just 2 deaths with C19 yesterday.
Both over 60.
The total (or 'headline') figure being 46, which are scattered over the days between June 4th and yesterday.

So the most recent day we have a full count for (this Wednesday, June 17th) is now a total of 32.

That is the lowest total for a 24 hour period since March 15th when we had 28.
 

EnolaGaia

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Evidence continues to accumulate that the COVID-19 virus was circulating in Europe long before the first officially reported cases surfaced.
Coronavirus was already in Italy by December, waste water study finds

Italian scientists say sewage water from two cities contained coronavirus traces in December, long before the country's first confirmed cases.

The National Institute of Health (ISS) said water from Milan and Turin showed genetic virus traces on 18 December.

It adds to evidence from other countries that the virus may have been circulating much earlier than thought.

Chinese officials confirmed the first cases at the end of December. Italy's first case was in mid-February.

In May French scientists said tests on samples showed a patient treated for suspected pneumonia near Paris on 27 December actually had the coronavirus.

Meanwhile in Spain a study found virus traces in waste water collected in mid-January in Barcelona, some 40 days before the first local case was discovered. ...
FULL STORY: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53106444
 

EnolaGaia

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New (though admittedly preliminary) research indicates COVID-19 antibodies in those who were asymptomatic or had only mild cases fade away within a few months. These findings are ominous for those who invested faith in "herd immunity."
YOUR CORONAVIRUS ANTIBODIES MIGHT FADE AFTER JUST A FEW MONTHS

... After your immune system fights off a disease, conventional wisdom dictates that your body builds up resistance to it in the future.

Unfortunately, when it comes to COVID-19, the reality may be more complex.

The main way that the immune system builds up resistance is by producing antibodies, which are proteins coded to hunt down specific pathogens. Sometimes, these antibodies fend off disease for years. But The New York Times reports that the antibodies our bodies develop against COVID-19 can fade away in just two to three months — especially for those who had mild cases.

That poses a problem for governments that banked on developing herd immunity — resistance to future infections at a societal scale — in the absence of an effective vaccine or treatment for the coronavirus. It also suggests that doling out “immunity passports” will only complicate the situation as some survivors may gradually become vulnerable again. ...
FULL STORY: https://futurism.com/neoscope/coronavirus-antibodies-fade-after-few-months
 

EnolaGaia

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Here's an excerpt from the New York Times article cited in the item above and a link to the published research report in Nature Medicine.
Antibodies may last only two months, especially in people who didn’t show symptoms, a new study finds.

Antibodies to the new virus may last only two to three months in the body, especially in people who never showed symptoms while they were infected, according to a study published on Thursday.

The new study, published in Nature Medicine, looked at only 37 people who did not show symptoms when infected, but it is the first to offer a characterization of the immune response in such people.

It suggests that asymptomatic people mount a weaker response to the virus than people who develop symptoms. And within weeks, antibody levels fall to undetectable levels in 40 percent of asymptomatic people and 13 percent of symptomatic people.

“That is a concern, but I’d point out that these are pretty small group sizes,” said Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at Columbia University in New York who was not involved in the work. She also noted that immune cells would continue to offer protection even in the absence of antibodies.

“Most people are generally not aware of T cell immunity and so much of the conversation has focused on antibody levels,” she said.
Still, the results offer a strong note of caution against the idea of “immunity certificates” for people who have recovered from the illness. If levels of immunity decrease so soon after illness, the authors suggest, people who have had the infection once might fall ill a second time.

Antibodies to other coronaviruses, including those that cause SARS and MERS, are thought to last about a year. Scientists had hoped that antibodies to the new virus might last at least as long.
SOURCE:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/18/world/coronavirus-cases-usa-world.html#link-7ea3a132

PUBLISHED REPORT:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0965-6
 

Cochise

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Todays figures, in case you missed it (above), show just 2 deaths with C19 yesterday.
Both over 60.
The total (or 'headline') figure being 46, which are scattered over the days between June 4th and yesterday.

So the most recent day we have a full count for (this Wednesday, June 17th) is now a total of 32.

That is the lowest total for a 24 hour period since March 15th when we had 28.
I guess the headline 'hardly anyone died from coronavirus today' doesn't sell a lot of newspapers.
 

cycleboy2

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Not looking good in parts of the USA. Politicians are saying that the increase in cases is due to better testing, the medical profession are disputing that and saying.

Dr. Jonathan Reiner, a professor of medicine at George Washington University: "The truth is that the pandemic is still very, very active in the United States and that we're not getting back to normal and there are difficult things that the public has to do."

Reduced social distancing has been implicated in the increasing cases. States reporting increases in new cases will have to re-implement "significant levels of social distancing," Dr. Peter Hotez, a professor of pediatrics and molecular virology and microbiology at Baylor College of Medicine, told CNN.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/18/us/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html
 

Swifty

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It seems trivial but socially, I've noticed people have mostly stopped saying "stay safe" to each other, mainly to people they know that is, and have instead started saying "thank you" instead to strangers .. where I live anyway ..

I've been walking in the road for months now, I learned that by watching other people doing it .. people will smile at you and say thank you or they'll do it instead for you and you say the same thing to them instead.
 

Cochise

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I will keep this mild. Plagues happen. As plagues go, this is a fairly mid one. We in the West have chosen to destroy our economy and our futures as a result. Come back to me in a year and tell me I'm wrong. And I would be happy to be wrong.
 

Swifty

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I will keep this mild. Plagues happen. As plagues go, this is a fairly mid one. We in the West have chosen to destroy our economy and our futures as a result. Come back to me in a year and tell me I'm wrong. And I would be happy to be wrong.
You'd be happy if we had a serious plague? ..
 

Lb8535

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Not looking good in parts of the USA. Politicians are saying that the increase in cases is due to better testing, the medical profession are disputing that and saying.

Dr. Jonathan Reiner, a professor of medicine at George Washington University: "The truth is that the pandemic is still very, very active in the United States and that we're not getting back to normal and there are difficult things that the public has to do."

Reduced social distancing has been implicated in the increasing cases. States reporting increases in new cases will have to re-implement "significant levels of social distancing," Dr. Peter Hotez, a professor of pediatrics and molecular virology and microbiology at Baylor College of Medicine, told CNN.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/18/us/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html
Actually, the medical professionals are pointing out that the rapidly increasing hospital admissions are not related to increased testing.
 

Cochise

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Actually, the medical professionals are pointing out that the rapidly increasing hospital admissions are not related to increased testing.
The world cannot just stop because there is a new illness. Because if it does many many people will die from illnesses we already have some idea how to cure will go untreated.
 
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Trevp666

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Todays (20/6/20) NHS England 'new deaths' figures released.

The wording of the statement regarding the collection of the data now includes the phrase,
"The total announced file is updated daily and contains information on the deaths of patients
who have died in hospitals in England and either tested positive for COVID-19,
or where no positive test result was received for COVID-19, but COVID-19 was mentioned on their death certificate"

So the data includes deaths as with C19 even if no positive test has been done.
Disgraceful.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Todays figures and notable statistics;
71 reported 'new' deaths today;
Northampton General Hospital NHS Trust reported the highest number of 'new' deaths, 5.
The oldest deaths reported today are 2 from different sites - Elysium Healthcare Limited (I think it's a private hospital) and Central London Community Healthcare NHS Trust from April 11th (over 2 months ago)
There are only 43 trusts/facilities that have reported 'new' deaths today.
174 of the 217 trusts/facilities today have reported 0 new deaths (that is 80%)
12 'new' deaths are over a week old.
Friday this week (yesterday) showing 6, however, as the daily figure is communicated to NHS England at 5pm each day the total for the whole of yesterday is not complete.

Todays deaths by age group;
0-19 = 0
20-39 = 0
40-59 = 3
60-78 = 30
80+ = 38

Below I show my running totals for;
Existing deaths + New deaths = New totals (If no 'new' to add then no calculation has been entered)
(since Thursday April 2nd, the date I started logging the numbers officially released).

T 812
F 617
S 1110 (Saturday April 4th)
S 1096
M 942
T 812
W 897
T 784
F 739
S 777+2=779 (April 11th)
S 718
M 698
T 648
W 685
T 635
F 610
S 569 (April 18th)
S 530
M 565
T 484
W 501
T 450
F 438
S 389 (April 25th)
S 381
M 342
T 341
W 322
T 311
F 304
S 267+1=268 (May 2nd)
S 250
M 259
T 250
W 266
T 255
F 211
S 202 (May 9th)
S 195
M 165+1=166
T 183
W 157
T 166
F 162
S 166 (May 16th)
S 137
M 154
T 143
W 152
T 147+1=148
F 121
S 128 (May 23rd)
S 114
M 135
T 137
W 120
T 122
F 116
S 89+2=91 (May 30th)
S 81
M 93
T 107
W 105+1=106
T 82
F 82
S 80 (June 6th)
S 75
M 66
T 60+2=62
W 69+2=71
T 48
F 47
S 38 (June 13th)
S 54+1=55
M 48+2=50
T 42+8=50
W 32+10=42
T 2+32=34
F --------------------6

(Figures supplied by NHS England date back to the beginning of March when the UK recorded it's first day with more than 50 deaths.
The figures released daily include deaths from the day on which they happened, so can be from any previous day NOT from just within the past 24 hours)
 

Ladyloafer

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different sites - Elysium Healthcare Limited (I think it's a private hospital) and Central London Community Healthcare NHS Trust from April 11th (over 2 months ago)
......
12 'new' deaths are over a week old.
I wonder if people are requesting post mortems on family deceased and that accounts for delayed counting?
 

Ladyloafer

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It seems trivial but socially, I've noticed people have mostly stopped saying "stay safe" to each other, mainly to people they know that is, and have instead started saying "thank you" instead to strangers .. where I live anyway ..

I've been walking in the road for months now, I learned that by watching other people doing it .. people will smile at you and say thank you or they'll do it instead for you and you say the same thing to them instead.
For swifty
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeand...n-collins-on-lockdown-email-etiquette-cartoon

Stay safe :p
 

Trevp666

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I wonder if people are requesting post mortems on family deceased and that accounts for delayed counting?
But surely the death certificate and therefore the recording of it would've already happened for the CoD to be questioned. So it would already be on the record.
I think what most likely accounts for the delay is reclassification of existing deaths, especially if it is from weeks and weeks ago.
EG Mavis Pruitt, 94, died April 12th in Manchester Royal Infirmary and was classified at the time as having died from the multiple injuries sustained in her parachute failure during a sky diving session, but doctors subsequently went back over the 'bloods' and found she was also asymptomatic with C19, so changed the CoD.
 

Xanatic*

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That Mavis Pruitt case seems exactly like the kind of gaming the numbers that makes people suspicious. Why do they want to inflate the number of deaths?
 

Naughty_Felid

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But surely the death certificate and therefore the recording of it would've already happened for the CoD to be questioned. So it would already be on the record.
I think what most likely accounts for the delay is reclassification of existing deaths, especially if it is from weeks and weeks ago.
EG Mavis Pruitt, 94, died April 12th in Manchester Royal Infirmary and was classified at the time as having died from the multiple injuries sustained in her parachute failure during a sky diving session, but doctors subsequently went back over the 'bloods' and found she was also asymptomatic with C19, so changed the CoD.
Why are you so hung up about this? People have died from the virus, enough to show that if precautions were not taken it would've have been worse.
 

Swifty

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Why are you so hung up about this? People have died from the virus, enough to show that if precautions were not taken it would've have been worse.
Well said. I was expecting the 'oh I didn't catch it so everyone was exaggerating' crew to show up anytime now mate ... you're bang on right. (not talking about you Trev btw)
 

Trevp666

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Why are you so hung up about this? People have died from the virus, enough to show that if precautions were not taken it would've have been worse.
I'm not 'hung up on it'. I'm just pointing out that it happens. They wanted to reclassify my mum despite her dying in hospital before the lockdown of a previously existing condition.
And yes people have died of this virus. People die of some or other virus every year, and those people also might have survived at the time had they not gone out, or worn a mask, etc etc.
Can anyone tell me the figures for how many have died from seasonal flu this year? Probably not, not yet. We'll know the figures later in the year.
I've been looking in detail at a lot of reports and the daily releases of figures from NHS England, and weekly reports from the ONS.
The usual reports that we get this time of year relating to deaths from other causes have been suspended, so really currently they're suspicious by their absence. But I'll reserve my judgement until the data is available.
 

Trevp666

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That Mavis Pruitt case seems exactly like the kind of gaming the numbers that makes people suspicious. Why do they want to inflate the number of deaths?
Poor old Mavis Pruitt. I wouldn't say they're inflating/gaming the numbers, not deliberately, but I know that there is a financial incentive to reclassify. The gov. is issuing care homes and hospitals extra funds for caring for C19 patients. It seems reasonable for them to try to claim any funds available.
 

Naughty_Felid

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I'm not 'hung up on it'. I'm just pointing out that it happens. They wanted to reclassify my mum despite her dying in hospital before the lockdown of a previously existing condition.
And yes people have died of this virus. People die of some or other virus every year, and those people also might have survived at the time had they not gone out, or worn a mask, etc etc.
Can anyone tell me the figures for how many have died from seasonal flu this year? Probably not, not yet. We'll know the figures later in the year.
I've been looking in detail at a lot of reports and the daily releases of figures from NHS England, and weekly reports from the ONS.
The usual reports that we get this time of year relating to deaths from other causes have been suspended, so really currently they're suspicious by their absence. But I'll reserve my judgement until the data is available.
Information fatigue.
 

Xanatic*

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It's reasonable for hospitals to lie about what people die of, to get more money? I can't quite agree with that I'm afraid.
 

Naughty_Felid

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It's so depressing constantly hearing that this whole thing has been shite and we certain posters know better - no you don't. You didn't work it. Armchair-expert crap that is just so god awful.

You are undoing your lockdown - Rejoice in this-- this is what you wanted.

I'm dreading the next waves.

People who haven't had a holiday, (I'm talking more than 3 days off in a row), for months and months who face having their leave revoked again anytime it hits again. Most essential workers laughed at those stuck indoors - whinging.

Articles on how to tackle boredom - laughable.

People have no idea - it was a very strange world to work in and not many on here did it. Swifty, obviously, and a couple of others that you could guess at.
 

Ladyloafer

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But surely the death certificate and therefore the recording of it would've already happened for the CoD to be questioned. So it would already be on the record.
I think what most likely accounts for the delay is reclassification of existing deaths, especially if it is from weeks and weeks ago.
EG Mavis Pruitt, 94, died April 12th in Manchester Royal Infirmary and was classified at the time as having died from the multiple injuries sustained in her parachute failure during a sky diving session, but doctors subsequently went back over the 'bloods' and found she was also asymptomatic with C19, so changed the CoD.
Yeah thats what i meant. But not neccesarily 'the authorities' requesting a recount but dear old mavis's family.
I'm not saying its right or wrong i just thought this might be a contributing factor in the late counting.
 

Swifty

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Sorry about your Mum Trev, mine's in palliative care at the moment so I'm just waiting for the phone call (that's why Skargy made me those masks) ..

People (not aimed at you) need to take the efforts of the behind the scenes people and the common sense rules more seriously .. the virus hasn't gone away, it hasn't just got bored or something .. we all have to starve it by using common sense. Starve it.
 

Swifty

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Sadly, Common Sense is in short supply in normal times let alone now :(
Do you remember those moments in the film JAWS when chief Brody is being diligent and honest with his residents of Amity and argues at every turn that it's not safe for people to go back in the water yet but that Mayor is more concerned with the local economy instead so tells them it's safe for them to go back into the sea again? .. that's what this feels like to us who've been working through it. It's very frustrating .. like the two clustered together groups of people I saw together today who I know for a fact aren't related ..

Fortunately (but this might not be enough), the vast majority are still observing the rules despite what the government is now advising.
 
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