COVID-19 (Wuhan Coronavirus): The Disease & Its Spread (Per Se)

Cochise

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Not just in Leicester. Coronavirus infections rising in several UK locations.

Well I hope all those twats on protest marches, beach parties, illegal raves and such like are happy now.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-of-uk-raise-fears-of-further-local-lockdowns
I honestly wouldn't worry too much about rate of infection when we still have no idea how many previously infected people there are. The best guide we have at the moment is number of hospitalisations. The number of deaths will of course be affected by the fact that care for seriously ill hospitalised covid patients is improving all the time as the medicos learn more about the best treatments.

From what I've seen, moving about (legitimately, to get my dog care) it's not just the raves, its that people in general are going 'eff this'. I actually saw fewer masks about than last week. And many more cars, to the extent of traffic jams. The lockdown is effectively over, all that is happening now is that we are exacerbating the economic damage and the deaths for other reasons *. Wales is basically planning to open up everything next month to welcome the tourists. Holiday homes the lot.

I've got no time for the Welsh Assembly, but Drakeford currently (and he didn't at the start of this) sounds more convincing than Boris.

*The NHS has currently in excess of 500,000 missed appointments for either chronic or progressive illnesses, not to mention missed tests for potential cancers etc. How the heck are they ever going to catch that up and deal with a normal workload at the same time?
 
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Naughty_Felid

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I honestly wouldn't worry too much about rate of infection when we still have no idea how many previously infected people there are. The best guide we have at the moment is number of hospitalisations. The number of deaths will of course be affected by the fact that care for seriously ill hospitalised covid patients is improving all the time as the medicos learn more about the best treatments.

From what I've seen, moving about (legitimately, to get my dog care) it's not just the raves, its that people in general are going 'eff this'. I actually saw fewer masks about than last week. And many more cars, to the extent of traffic jams. The lockdown is effectively over, all that is happening now is that we are exacerbating the economic damage and the deaths for other reasons *. Wales is basically planning to open up everything next month to welcome the tourists. Holiday homes the lot.

I've got no time for the Welsh Assembly, but Drakeford currently (and he didn't at the start of this) sounds more convincing than Boris.

*The NHS has currently in excess of 500,000 missed appointments for either chronic or progressive illnesses, not to mention missed tests for potential cancers etc. How the heck are they ever going to catch that up and deal with a normal workload at the same time?
It's very simple once you reduce infection to almost zero then you open borders to tight controls. NZ is a very good model on what to do right and what to do wrong. Still think it's been an amazing response.
 

cycleboy2

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It's very simple once you reduce infection to almost zero then you open borders to tight controls. NZ is a very good model on what to do right and what to do wrong. Still think it's been an amazing response.
Agree, agree, agree. And yes, we're a much bigger country than NZ and also a transport hub, but we had plenty of warning and we're also an island – an advantage over Germany and some other countries that have suffered far fewer cases than us. As for the USA and Brazil, don't get me started...

Other countries that have excelled along with New Zealand include Taiwan, Hong Kong and Vietnam. Test and track, test and track, test and track, test and track...
 

Hogarth999

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Not just in Leicester. Coronavirus infections rising in several UK locations.

Well I hope all those twats on protest marches, beach parties, illegal raves and such like are happy now.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-of-uk-raise-fears-of-further-local-lockdowns
If our incompetent, ever-lying government had acted a lot quicker and more pro-actively a few months ago then we wouldn't be in such dire straits right now. There's no point in blaming the protest marchers, those going to beach parties and illegal raves when those really to blame are the government (who are of course only too happy to pass the buck and blame the public (and the scientists)). This is the government of "not my fault fault guv'nor, 'ee did it". Nobody trusts them.
 

Cochise

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It's very simple once you reduce infection to almost zero then you open borders to tight controls. NZ is a very good model on what to do right and what to do wrong. Still think it's been an amazing response.
I think it's been an amazing response too. But it was never going to last forever. I'm not going to get political. Go back and look at the Black Death. We remember the one village that sacrificed themselves in lockdown because they were a singular exception. Meanwhile in some cities people decided if they were going to die they might as well party first. Similar reactions to today.

But before despairing let's remember for a couple of months almost everyone did behave themselves. There are other contributing factors to the gradual disintegration of lockdown, I'm sure they will occur to you without me listing them and thereby flouting the no politics rules.
 
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Robbrent

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The reality is that a) there has never been a usable vaccine for a coronavirus even though we've been trying since the 50's - I know that because one of the Oxford guys said they are going to go back and review that old material to see if it helps, and b) Even was a vaccine successfully developed it would take years - possibly decades - before it could be proven safe.

Unless you want another Thalidomide. This time on a global scale.

This is why I get irritated. Miracles don't happen, scientific development - even if you are Einstein or Tesla - is time consuming hard slog.

Oh, and before anyone chimes in I'm not an anti-vaxxer - I've had all mine - nor do I think the world is run by Big Pharma. I also understand that 'Safe' does not mean 100% safe. But if you are going to vaccinate the world against a disease whose full long term effects we don't even understand you'd better be sure its 99point a lot of 9s% safe.

It's true I wouldn't trust Bill Gates to hang up my coat without searching my pockets, but that's because I've been forced to use his bloody software for 30 years and watched how people keep paying out more money for less productivity.
Well either the pharma companies are telling untruths or your right, trials have begun in China and India and the Oxford Uni and Astro Zenica one appears to be progressing, I do realise they are just trials however from what I am reading the preliminary results appear quite promising

It could be false hope, but there is one thing I know the world can't carry on like this there is going to be gradual economic collapse throughout the world
 

Cochise

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Well either the pharma companies are telling untruths or your right, trials have begun in China and India and the Oxford Uni and Astro Zenica one appears to be progressing, I do realise they are just trials however from what I am reading the preliminary results appear quite promising

It could be false hope, but there is one thing I know the world can't carry on like this there is going to be gradual economic collapse throughout the world
More resources will be thrown at it then ever before, of course. That might increase the chances of finding one, but it can't really speed up the testing. It's this relying on the idea we'll have one for mass distribution in a few months. I just don't think that's credible. We don't even have reliable tests yet, nor do we know for sure whether having had Covid you are then immune, or how long the immunity lasts.

Politicians seem to have been caught in a trap where they have believed pessimistic forecasts from the modellers, and wildly optimistic claims from the companies trying to develop vaccines. If someone said to them , look there isn't going to be a vaccine for 10 years (which would itself be optimistic) then they would no doubt have come to different decisions.

What they didn't do was make any common sense assessment of the advice they were being given. Which admittedly would be hard to do on the modelling side, but it would only have taken a couple of days digging about to find out about the difficulties with vaccine development.
 
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Robbrent

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More resources will be thrown at it then ever before, of course. That might increase the chances of finding one, but it can't really speed up the testing. It's this relying on the idea we'll have one for mass distribution in a few months. I just don't think that's credible. We don't even have reliable tests yet, nor do we know for sure whether having had Covid you are then immune, or how long the immunity lasts.

Politicians seem to have been caught in a trap where they have believed pessimistic forecasts from the modellers, and wildly optimistic claims from the companies trying to develop vaccines. If someone said to them , look there isn't going to be a vaccine for 10 years (which would itself be optimistic) then they would no doubt have come to different decisions.

What they didn't do was make any common sense assessment of the advice they were being given. Which admittedly would be hard to do on the modelling side, but it would only have taken a couple of days digging about to find out about the difficulties with vaccine development.
Do you not think that necessity is the mother of invention?

Most of the big Pharmaceutical companies are based in the US and Europe, previous outbreaks of SARS and MERS did not really effect the West, this one is and by the bucketload

I think they will get a vaccine out before the end of the year, even if it's only 70 to 80% effective as the risks to not doing so will be economic collapse, as was proven in Italy and now some states in the US we just don't have the healthcare facilities to cope with massive outbreaks so in order to prevent this happening, some sort of lock down will be needed, and it's been proven lifting it too fast leads to mass outbreaks, although in the US the stats are saying its mainly the under 44's who are getting it

And the effects are cumulative, lock down equals loss of economic activity which then equals loss of tax revenue, it's a death spiral for want of a better phrase.

I agree there will be risks with the vaccine, but I can't really see an alternative

To put my tinfoil hat on if I was going to design a biological weapon I could think of nothing better, this virus cripples as well as destroys
 

Cochise

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Do you not think that necessity is the mother of invention?

Most of the big Pharmaceutical companies are based in the US and Europe, previous outbreaks of SARS and MERS did not really effect the West, this one is and by the bucketload

I think they will get a vaccine out before the end of the year, even if it's only 70 to 80% effective as the risks to not doing so will be economic collapse, as was proven in Italy and now some states in the US we just don't have the healthcare facilities to cope with massive outbreaks so in order to prevent this happening, some sort of lock down will be needed, and it's been proven lifting it too fast leads to mass outbreaks, although in the US the stats are saying its mainly the under 44's who are getting it

And the effects are cumulative, lock down equals loss of economic activity which then equals loss of tax revenue, it's a death spiral for want of a better phrase.

I agree there will be risks with the vaccine, but I can't really see an alternative

To put my tinfoil hat on if I was going to design a biological weapon I could think of nothing better, this virus cripples as well as destroys
And if the vaccine has long-term side effects? Say, progressive impairment of the nervous system? We already know that this covid interferes with the nervous system - its effects on taste and smell etc.

It would be utterly irresponsible.
 

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Sometimes all your options are bad ones.
 

blessmycottonsocks

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If our incompetent, ever-lying government had acted a lot quicker and more pro-actively a few months ago then we wouldn't be in such dire straits right now. There's no point in blaming the protest marchers, those going to beach parties and illegal raves when those really to blame are the government (who are of course only too happy to pass the buck and blame the public (and the scientists)). This is the government of "not my fault fault guv'nor, 'ee did it". Nobody trusts them.
I reserve the right to be angry.
I, my family and everyone I know have behaved responsibly and done our civic duty by respecting the social distancing rules to the letter.

When the news shows thousands of people who don't give a toss about acting responsibly, whether it's to satisfy their craving to burn the Cenotaph flags or deface Churchill's statue and yell at the police, swig a few cans of warm beer and eat gritty sandwiches on the beach, get high at illegal raves or throw flares around to celebrate their football team's achievement, I just wonder what's the point in being a good citizen?
The police will fine individual "covidiots" who break the rules, but there's obviously strength in numbers, as thousands breaking the rules can get away with it and spread further infections to their heart's delight.
 

ramonmercado

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I reserve the right to be angry.
I, my family and everyone I know have behaved responsibly and done our civic duty by respecting the social distancing rules to the letter.

When the news shows thousands of people who don't give a toss about acting responsibly, whether it's to satisfy their craving to burn the Cenotaph flags or deface Churchill's statue and yell at the police, swig a few cans of warm beer and eat gritty sandwiches on the beach, get high at illegal raves or throw flares around to celebrate their football team's achievement, I just wonder what's the point in being a good citizen?
The police will fine individual "covidiots" who break the rules, but there's obviously strength in numbers, as thousands breaking the rules can get away with it and spread further infections to their heart's delight.
Indeed. Those of various political hues protesting and the street ravers have all added to the risks.

But what really frightens me is the 500,000 at Bournemouth. That and other beach events have a Zombie Apocalypse potential

zombiebeach.jpg
 

Robbrent

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And if the vaccine has long-term side effects? Say, progressive impairment of the nervous system? We already know that this covid interferes with the nervous system - its effects on taste and smell etc.

It would be utterly irresponsible.
As irresponsible as letting it run rip?

Like someone said there are no good choices here, perhaps there is a hope that it will just gradually die out, like many common cold viruses that do the rounds, after all we don't actually know the what the infection rate is, mainly because it's so minor its never really recorded, but we do know a new one comes along every winter, (you can tell when one is around because all the pharma companies start advertising over the counter remedies)

Or it could mutate into a less potent form, although from what I can see there is little sign of that, why would it mutate from it's point of view its doing quite well in the contagion stakes
 

Stormkhan

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Neat, huh?
The government no longer has the ability or emotional authority to enforce lock-down. Past shenanigans with The Dom put paid to that, along with a pared-down police force and faulty legislation (not one prosecution under the 'emergency legislation' has resulted in success).
Mr Johnson promised (ha ha) that were the infection rate to rise, lock-down would be reinstated.
What he didn't detail was the national situation. Now, it makes sense that areas on the mend or recovered open up gradually, to maintain services and the economy, and equally it makes sense to "quarantine" areas of resurgence. But what has happened is that central government has let local government decide to shut down or not ... but not given them any legal powers to do so. The government doesn't 'give away' it's control willingly. So when we are told "local authorities can re-impose lock-down" we are not told how much of a delay and bureaucratic communication has to be taken in order to get 'permission' from central government to lock-down.
 

Ogdred Weary

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To put my tinfoil hat on if I was going to design a biological weapon I could think of nothing better, this virus cripples as well as destroys
The morbidity rate is very small. I've seen estimates ranging from 3-4% down to as low as 0.1%. Not much of a weapon.
 

Ogdred Weary

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This is the government of "not my fault fault guv'nor, 'ee did it". Nobody trusts them.
There are probably a sizeable contingent who think it's been a sterling job from the govt. Just going on averages.
 

Ogdred Weary

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Well we posted another record number of new cases today.

USA!! USA!! USA!! USA!!


The sense of despair I feel...months of isolating at home, probably for nothing...
You guys have to be top at everything.
 

Cochise

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As irresponsible as letting it run rip?

Like someone said there are no good choices here, perhaps there is a hope that it will just gradually die out, like many common cold viruses that do the rounds, after all we don't actually know the what the infection rate is, mainly because it's so minor its never really recorded, but we do know a new one comes along every winter, (you can tell when one is around because all the pharma companies start advertising over the counter remedies)

Or it could mutate into a less potent form, although from what I can see there is little sign of that, why would it mutate from it's point of view its doing quite well in the contagion stakes
More irresponsible than letting it run rip. Much more.
 

Cochise

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Well we posted another record number of new cases today.

USA!! USA!! USA!! USA!!


The sense of despair I feel...months of isolating at home, probably for nothing...
If I can try and cheer you up - the signs are that, as with some previous viruses, it's losing its potency. As long as deaths and hospital admissions are trending downwards, it doesn't actually matter how many infections there are. And of course the more tests you run the more infections you will find.
 

IamSundog

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If I can try and cheer you up - the signs are that, as with some previous viruses, it's losing its potency. As long as deaths and hospital admissions are trending downwards, it doesn't actually matter how many infections there are. And of course the more tests you run the more infections you will find.
It does seem to be true that the number of deaths is not spiking to the degree that the number of cases is. On the other hand, I’m personally familiar with one case where a formerly healthy 40 year old man has been severely ill with this for more than a month and is fearful of long term respiratory disability. It’s been very sobering.
 

Ghost In The Machine

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It does seem to be true that the number of deaths is not spiking to the degree that the number of cases is. On the other hand, I’m personally familiar with one case where a formerly healthy 40 year old man has been severely ill with this for more than a month and is fearful of long term respiratory disability. It’s been very sobering.
I’ve been ill with suspected ‘rona for over three months. I still can’t even do much as walk the dog unless it’s 100m... used to walk an hour or more a day. There’s no therapy on offer here no support and nothing if you weren’t hospitalised. You’d have to have been in respiratory collapse to be hospitalised.

It’s grim and horrendous and no guarantee after all this crap that you even have any immunity whatsoever.

I totally disbelieve any figures put out. It’s too political to say why, here.
 

IamSundog

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I’ve been ill with suspected ‘rona for over three months. I still can’t even do much as walk the dog unless it’s 100m... used to walk an hour or more a day. There’s no therapy on offer here no support and nothing if you weren’t hospitalised. You’d have to have been in respiratory collapse to be hospitalised.

It’s grim and horrendous and no guarantee after all this crap that you even have any immunity whatsoever.

I totally disbelieve any figures put out. It’s too political to say why, here.
That’s completely horrible!! You have my deepest sympathy! I guess I can stop moping around feeling sorry for myself now.
 

uair01

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Dead pigs left on the side of roads have sparked fear in some farmers, making them think the virus is in their part of the country, reports say. The farmers then sell their pigs at a lower price to gang members waiting to take advantage of the situation.

Meanwhile, in extreme cases, some offenders are leaving feed infected with ASF in pig barns and are even using drones to spread contamination, reports the South China Morning Post, according to an investigation by the magazine China Comment.

https://www.porkbusiness.com/article/gangs-exploit-pork-crisis-china
 

Naughty_Felid

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I think it's been an amazing response too. But it was never going to last forever. I'm not going to get political. Go back and look at the Black Death. We remember the one village that sacrificed themselves in lockdown because they were a singular exception. Meanwhile in some cities people decided if they were going to die they might as well party first. Similar reactions to today.

But before despairing let's remember for a couple of months almost everyone did behave themselves. There are other contributing factors to the gradual disintegration of lockdown, I'm sure they will occur to you without me listing them and thereby flouting the no politics rules.
You are missing the point of the NZ rise in cases - the country is getting their people back from overseas who have been made redundant, are sick of living overseas, and want to come home. Being Covid-free was never going to last forever. What the country needs to do is to ensure isolation works. It dropped the ball on the first of the new cases.
 

Robbrent

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If I can try and cheer you up - the signs are that, as with some previous viruses, it's losing its potency. As long as deaths and hospital admissions are trending downwards, it doesn't actually matter how many infections there are. And of course the more tests you run the more infections you will find.
There is actually no signs pointing to it losing it's potency, there is some anecdotal evidence that has not been studied, what has happened especially in the US, is that younger people seem to be the main group catching it, and they are more resilient

It was an Italian doctor who said this, and was slated by virologists
 

Ghost In The Machine

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There is actually no signs pointing to it losing it's potency, there is some anecdotal evidence that has not been studied, what has happened especially in the US, is that younger people seem to be the main group catching it, and they are more resilient

It was an Italian doctor who said this, and was slated by virologists
It also mutates very slowly and predictably apparently, but it does mutate. My family member who caught it in Jan, we think, will have got the original edition as she works in a tiny shop with no proper air con that entire coach parties of tourists - often Chinese - crammed into several times a day. I probably caught it from a confirmed case I gave a lift to only a month later. By Feb, the whole of York was rammed with tourists from across Europe (including the person I caught it from, an English person who normally lives in a Scandinavian country and was over for a week for Viking Fest). I’m willing to bet our strain, only weeks on, in the same city, was the Italian one. And apparently there are some differences - the European version being more virulent, it was thought.

Four months further on, it could be any variant or some new one. The version often seen in Italy was thought to have got marginally less virulent in the past month or two. But yes that may be down to it ramping through a more vulnerable population first. Also the drs have more experience of it already and ICUs are less busy. Death rates in Wuhan were highest when the hospitals were most overstretched.
 
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Robbrent

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It also mutates very slowly and predictably apparently, but it does mutate. My family member who caught it in Jan, we think, will have got the original edition as she works in a tiny shop with no proper air con that entire coach parties of tourists - often Chinese - crammed into several times a day. I probably caught it from a confirmed case I gave a lift to only a month later. By Feb, the whole of York was rammed with tourists from across Europe (including the person I caught it from, an English person who normally lives in a Scandinavian country and was over for a week for Viking Fest). I’m willing to be our strain, only weeks on, in the same city, was the Italian one. And apparently there are some differences - the European version being more virulent, it was thought.

Four months further on, it could be any variant or some new one. The version often seen in Italy was thought to have got marginally less virulent in the past month or two. But yes that may be down to it ramping through a more vulnerable population first. Also the drs have more experience of it already and ICUs are less busy. Death rates in Wuhan were highest when the hospitals were most overstretched.
Bit more info in this article

https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2020/06/29/coronavirus-mutation-science/?arc404=true
 
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