COVID-19 (Wuhan Coronavirus): The Disease & Its Spread (Per Se)

Ghost In The Machine

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Some interesting observations on the U.S. figures:

View attachment 27696
Source: https://www.economist.com/graphic-d...eanalysedbyageamericaisanoutliergraphicdetail

Is this a product of obesity and/on a higher incidence of co-morbidities?
Possibly re. obesity, there may be summat more complex going on. The virus seems to be particularly good at taking down people with insulin issues and it may be that rather than the byproduct of it, obesity itself, that is causing it. Again I can’t link as I read this a couple months back.

I’d guess one factor in the US is their lack of a universal healthcare system. There are people there who get little to no medical care throughout their lives and I’m not sure wtf you do with no insurance if you catch covid?

This is not relevant to that discussion but here’s an interesting video someone linked me to last night:

 

Stormkhan

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I can see extreme terrorists having a light bulb moment in seeing how to bring western economies to a standstill and bringing down governments.
A terrorist, in an unemotional way of consideration, you must weigh up resources, personnel and impact. This is why the IRA gave out false alarms etc. For every one real, damaging bomb, they could cause just as much terror and impact on transport and security without expending equipment or risking personnel.
Authorities cannot risk - or be seen to risk - lives. These terrorists will use the - ah - most efficient means to bring about their goal. So I'm sure it has occurred to the 'brains' of the various outfits of the now-proven opportunities open to them. :(
 

PeteS

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There are people there who get little to no medical care throughout their lives and I’m not sure wtf you do with no insurance if you catch covid?
I guess that there is a good chance you will die, but are there not public hospitals you could attend? Perhaps kamalktk could clarify?
 
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Trevp666

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As per my last 'update' over a week ago, here is the first of my weekly updates of NHS England figures.

For the week ending Friday July 3rd, here is a review of the daily reported NHS England figures on SARS-Cov-2 (Covid 19) 'new' deaths.
(Figures supplied by NHS England date back to the beginning of March when the UK recorded it's first day with more than 50 deaths.
The figures released daily include deaths from the day on which they happened, so can be from any previous day NOT from just within the previous 24 hours)
Clarification about data collection by NHS England.
"The total announced file is updated daily and contains information on the deaths of patients
who have died in hospitals in England and either tested positive for COVID-19,
or where no positive test result was received for COVID-19, but COVID-19 was mentioned on their death certificate"
So the data includes deaths as.... 'with C19'.... even if no positive test has been done.
Which in my opinion is utterly disgraceful.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

This weeks figures, notable statistics and other remarks regarding them;
275 reported 'new' deaths this past week;
The most reported 'new' deaths in one day during this past week was from TAMESIDE AND GLOSSOP INTEGRATED CARE NHS FOUNDATION TRUST which reported 12 on June 27th.
The oldest reported 'new' death during this past week is from STOCKPORT NHS FOUNDATION TRUST from March 27th
Thursday this past week reporting 6 'new' deaths for the whole of England, however, as the daily figure is communicated to NHS England at 5pm each day the total for the whole of yesterday is not complete.

Todays deaths by age group this past week;
0-19 = 0
20-39 = 1
40-59 = 11
60-78 = 108
80+ = 155

Below are the running totals for 'existing' + 'new' = new total - where no new figures have been reported for a day then no calculation has been entered.
(since Thursday April 2nd, the date I started logging the numbers officially released).

T 813+1=814
F 617
S 1110 (Saturday April 4th)
S 1096
M 942
T 812
W 897
T 784
F 739
S 779 (April 11th)
S 718
M 698
T 648
W 685
T 635+1=635
F 610
S 569 (April 18th)
S 530
M 565
T 484+1=485
W 501
T 450
F 438
S 389+1=390 (April 25th)
S 381
M 342
T 341+1=342
W 322+1=323
T 311
F 304
S 268 (May 2nd)
S 250
M 259
T 250+1=251
W 266
T 256
F 211
S 202 (May 9th)
S 195
M 166
T 183
W 157+1=158
T 166
F 162
S 166 (May 16th)
S 137
M 155
T 143
W 153
T 149
F 121
S 128 (May 23rd)
S 115
M 135
T 137+1=138
W 120
T 123+1=124
F 116
S 91 (May 30th)
S 82+1=83
M 93+1=94
T 108
W 109+1=110
T 82+1=83
F 83+1+1+1=86
S 82+1=83 (June 6th)
S 77+2+1=80
M 66+2+2+1+2=73
T 65+1+1=67
W 71+4=75
T 48+1=49
F 50+2=52
S 38+3+1=42 (June 13th)
S 55+1+1+1=58
M 51+1+1+1=54
T 51+4+1+1=57
W 45+3=48
T 45+2+1=48
F 38
S 39+1+1+1+2=44 (June 20th)
S 32+1=33
M 38+1+1+1=41
T 42+3+2+2+1=50
W 34+12+1+1+1+1+2=52
T 9+23+2+1+3+2+1+1=42
F 10+8+4+4+6+1=33
S 3+6+3+10+2+2=26
S 6+10+10+4+1=31
M 5+12+4+2=23
T 2+15+3=20
W 2+6=8
T -------6
 

Lb8535

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No hospital is allowed to turn people away for emergency care based on ability to pay. However, they can dun you forever if they save you. or actually if they don't too.
 
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Ogdred Weary

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It's not just the morbidity rate though. I can see extreme terrorists having a light bulb moment in seeing how to bring western economies to a standstill and bringing down governments.
Good point, however, I recall the BBC doing a doc about weaponized smallpox in the immediate aftermath of 9/11, I'm sure it's something terrorists have been toying with for decades and something security services have been planning for just as long. Whether this will see an increase I don't know, there was a surge in Islamic terrorist incidents and planned incidents after 9/11 but not to the extent to which many feared and none where on anything like scale.
 

EnolaGaia

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The most severe cases of COVID-19 may represent "Neanderthal's Revenge" ...

A uniquely Neanderthal-descended segment comprised of 6 genes seems to be strongly correlated with patients whose infections become serious.
DNA Linked to Covid-19 Was Inherited From Neanderthals, Study Finds

The stretch of six genes seems to increase the risk of severe illness from the coronavirus.

A stretch of DNA linked to Covid-19 was passed down from Neanderthals 60,000 years ago, according to a new study.

Scientists don’t yet know why this particular segment increases the risk of severe illness from the coronavirus. But the new findings, which were posted online on Friday and have not yet been published in a scientific journal, show how some clues to modern health stem from ancient history. ...

This piece of the genome, which spans six genes on Chromosome 3, has had a puzzling journey through human history, the study found. The variant is now common in Bangladesh, where 63 percent of people carry at least one copy. Across all of South Asia, almost one-third of people have inherited the segment.

Elsewhere, however, the segment is far less common. Only 8 percent of Europeans carry it, and just 4 percent have it in East Asia. It is almost completely absent in Africa. ...

Last month, researchers compared people in Italy and Spain who became very sick with Covid-19 to those who had only mild infections. They found two places in the genome associated with a greater risk. One is on Chromosome 9 and includes ABO, a gene that determines blood type. The other is the Neanderthal segment on Chromosome 3. ...

Just last week, an international group of scientists called the Covid-19 Host Genetics Initiative released a new set of data downplaying the risk of blood type. “The jury is still out on ABO,” said Mark Daly, a geneticist at Harvard Medical School who is a member of the initiative.

The new data showed an even stronger link between the disease and the Chromosome 3 segment. People who carry two copies of the variant are three times more likely to suffer from severe illness than people who do not. ...
FULL STORY: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/04/health/coronavirus-neanderthals.html
 

EnolaGaia

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A newly-emergent variant of the COVID-19 virus is becoming the dominant form.
Newer variant of COVID-19-causing virus dominates global infections

Virus with D614G change in Spike out-competes original strain, but may not make patients sicker

Research out today in the journal Cell shows that a specific change in the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus virus genome, previously associated with increased viral transmission and the spread of COVID-19, is more infectious in cell culture. The variant in question, D614G, makes a small but effective change in the virus's 'Spike' protein, which the virus uses to enter human cells.

Bette Korber, a theoretical biologist at Los Alamos National Laboratory and lead author of the study, noted, "The D614G variant first came to our attention in early April, as we had observed a strikingly repetitive pattern. All over the world, even when local epidemics had many cases of the original form circulating, soon after the D614G variant was introduced into a region it became the prevalent form."

Geographic information from samples from the GISAID COVID-19 viral sequence database enabled tracking of this highly recurrent pattern, a shift in the viral population from the original form to the D614G variant. This occurred at every geographic level: country, subcountry, county, and city. ...
FULL STORY: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/07/200702144054.htm

A journal pre-proof draft of the research report can be accessed (PDF format) at:

https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30820-5.pdf
 

Yithian

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I'm just on a five minute break, so I don't have a story to cite, but for the last six to eight weeks everybody (in their right mind) has been saying that Florida has been setting itself up for a punishment beating, yet cynics have repeatedly pointed out that it never arrived.

Well, in terms of infections, it now has.
 

Robbrent

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Bit of good news, (although this came from someone I know)

Several companies in the UK and Israel have developed quick cheap and accurate tests of both kinds and they are just going through some more rigorous testing and approval, until a vaccine arrives it's the only way we can get to something like normal
 

Cochise

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Xanatic*

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Plague never went away. Madagascar has regular outbreaks, I'd imagine their tradition of dancing with the dead doesn't help. Luckily penicillin helps.
 

Swifty

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Someone called WFLA News channel 8 have produced this chart .. I don't know if it's just speculation or researched ..

achart01.jpg
 

Lb8535

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The article mentions one or two cases in various regions, which is about what happens in the US southwest. I
 

Vardoger

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He shouldn't worry. It's "just like the flu" he said.
------
Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro tests positive for coronavirus
Far-right leader reports high temperature but says he is in good spirits

Bryan Harris and Andres Schipani in São Paulo

AN HOUR AGO

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has tested positive for coronavirus, days after he celebrated the July 4 weekend with the US ambassador and a host of his top ministers in Brasília.

The 65-year-old said on Monday he came down with symptoms of the Covid-19 disease, including a high temperature, but said that he was in good spirits.

“It worsened on Monday, with malaise, tiredness, muscle pain and a fever of 38 degrees. If I hadn’t done the tests and hadn’t been taking chloroquine, I could be contaminating people. Now I have to avoid infecting others,” Mr Bolsonaro said on Tuesday after his diagnosis.

Mr Bolsonaro has long denied the seriousness of the pandemic and has attended numerous rallies and events often without any precautions, such as wearing a mask. He has described the disease as a mere “sniffle” and once said: “The virus is there. We need to face it like a man”.

“The number of deaths has increased not because of the virus but because of the fear of the virus,” Mr Bolsonaro said. “The virus is like the rain, it will hit you.”

https://www.ft.com/content/49799a93-c794-46a6-9d68-bca3f034eb68
 
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Comfortably Numb

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Beresford

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The news that airborne transmission is a significant factor in the spread of Covid19 could be a game-changer:

https://slate.com/news-and-politics...-who-recognize-coronavirus-airborne-risk.html

Looks like we could be wearing masks for years and may need to start covering our eyes with goggles or a visor too.
There is a fair bit of debate about how significant a factor this is and how a big a risk it poses. It may mean that certain types of building need specific adaptations.

I'm giving up on speculating or predicting what will happen next though. The world is just too strange now.
 
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Robbrent

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The news that airborne transmission is a significant factor in the spread of Covid19 could be a game-changer:

https://slate.com/news-and-politics...-who-recognize-coronavirus-airborne-risk.html

Looks like we could be wearing masks for years and may need to start covering our eyes with goggles or a visor too.
I think years is a little pessimistic, there should be the first vaccine released in October and a number of others following on (The Imperial College one is the safest )
 

blessmycottonsocks

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I think years is a little pessimistic, there should be the first vaccine released in October and a number of others following on (The Imperial College one is the safest )
October? But in which year?

Unless the Chinese Communist Party has found a way to neutralise their virus and is willing to share that knowledge with the rest of humanity, I cannot see a vaccine being just months away.
 
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