Earth's Moon & Earthquakes: A Causal Connection?

WhistlingJack

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Lunar eclipse Monday could spell more disaster: astrologer

Hyderabad | October 11, 2005 1:15:06 PM IST

A lunar eclipse Monday could prove disastrous for the world as it will occur within a fortnight of a solar eclipse, says a city-based astrologer-numerologist who predicted the killer earthquake that hit the Indian sub-continent.

"The ill effects of this rare occurrence could affect individuals as well as nations. Another earthquake is likely between the third week of this month and the first week of November," Viswapati told IANS.

"It could strike any of the regions - northern India, the Himalayan belt, Iran, Afghanistan and Russia. It is also likely to strike Egypt, Turkey and the United States," he added.

Viswapati had on the eve of the Oct 3 solar eclipse warned it could spell a disaster like an earthquake.

Just five days later his prediction came true when a strong quake hit Pakistan, Pakistan-administered Kashmir and Jammu and Kashmir.

He believed that there was strong correlation between eclipses and natural disasters and pointed out that many major earthquakes in the past were followed by solar or lunar eclipses.

The astrologer also said that due to the planetary influences, two severe cyclonic storms are likely in the Bay of Bengal in the last week of October and first or second week of November.

"Another cyclone is likely to hit the Florida and New Orleans region in the US. Airline disasters too are likely to occur in the coming few months," said Viswapati, whose given name is T.V.R.K. Murthy.

His advice to the people is to pray to their gods to mitigate these ill effects.

"During an eclipse, the earth is subjected to severe magnetic forces. The strength of the force can be assessed from the study of planetary movements at that time. They will indicate the occurrence of these natural disasters," he said.

"Ancient Vedic texts clearly state the after-effects of the eclipses but a detailed study is needed if exact timing and place of an earthquake is to be known. This could help in minimizing human loss," said Viswapati, who is unperturbed by scientists and rationalists dismissing such predictions.

To prove his point, he pointed out that a solar eclipse Jan 9 preceded the severe earthquake that shattered Gujarat Jan 26, 2001.

The last massive earthquake to hit the Himalayan belt was in 1905 and it was also preceded by solar and lunar eclipses. The solar eclipse occurred on Feb 19, 1905, followed by a lunar eclipse Mar 6.

"The effect was felt within a month in the form of a major quake of the intensity of 8 in Kangra in Himachal Pradesh," he said. The April 4, 1905, quake claimed more than 19,000 lives.

Normally many natural disasters occur around full moon and new moon days and also around Sunday. According to him, the 48-hour period from 12 noon Saturday is very crucial. The Kangra quake occurred on Padyami, the first day of the lunar month.

On July 8, 1918, an earthquake of 7.6 magnitude hit Assam, 14 days after the lunar eclipse. This quake occurred on the fifth day of the lunar month.

He pointed out that the devastating tsunami of December 26, 2004, too occurred on Purnima, a full moon day and that too on Sunday.

(IANS)

news.webindia123.com/news
 

Pte_ri

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What complete tosh!

A Lunar eclipse frequently precedes or follows a Solar eclipse by about a fortnight, since if the Sun, Moon and Earth are correctly lined up for one, they're more likely to be lined up for the other, half a lunar month later (it's all in the Nodes, y'know).

As for "many major earthquakes in the past were followed by solar or lunar eclipses" (and surely "preceded" was intended) - by how long, exactly? There are several Solar and Lunar eclipses every year (up to 9 if memory serves), so if the significant period is defined sufficiently loosely (and he seems to accept at least a month), most dates (and thus most earthquakes) would qualify.

All of the events he claims to be 'predicting' are fairly frequent in the right areas and seasons (storms and cyclones) or at any time of year (Earthquakes somewhere in the world; Airline disasters - how big a death toll qualifies as a 'disaster', I wonder).
 

mossy_sloth

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erm... *raises hand*

I think I'm still here..tricky question though...
 

rynner2

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Well, just to play Devil's advocate for a moment, tidal stresses (which affect the whole 'solid' earth as well as the oceans) are greatest at new and full moons (which are when solar and lunar eclipses occur, respectively), so if an earthquake is building up, this extra tidal stress may well trigger it into action.

So earthquakes may well be more frequent every fortnight, irrespective of whether there's an eclipse or not. But eclipses indicate a more precise alignment, and this is one factor which determines the strength of the tidal stress. (The other important one is the distance of Moon from Earth.)

EDIT:
Tidal Triggering Caught in the Act
Ross S. Stein
Over the past three decades, many researchers have searched for the tidal triggering of earthquakes in the hope that small triggered shocks would illuminate faults critically stressed for failure in future large earthquakes. The results have been equivocal, but not anymore, according to the Perspective by Stein. He highlights a recent paper by Tanaka, Ohtake, and Sato in Earth, Planets and Space, where they report the detection of detected tidal triggering in 10% of the Japanese archipelago and show that earthquakes are only triggered when the tidal stress acts in the same direction as the regional tectonic stress. If the results can be reproduced in places such as California and Taiwan, a long-sought goal of seismology would be achieved.
LINK
 

Analogue Boy

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For a while, I've been interested in a theory that goes along the lines of earthquakes increasing in magnitude around the time of a full moon, being particularly strong at the equinox. So around this time I usually take a look at the USGS earthquake site....

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/

...Which tells me that in the last hour that Japan has been hit by a 7.4 with a tsunami warning.

The site shows that quakes happen all over the place all the time, but since the Boxing Day Tsunami I've looked to see if there's any proof in the numbers and I've come to the conclusion it's more probable that a large quake will occur around the time of a full moon and a few days after.
 

rynner2

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jimv1 said:
For a while, I've been interested in a theory that goes along the lines of earthquakes increasing in magnitude around the time of a full moon, being particularly strong at the equinox.
I'm sure I've discussed this idea on this MB before, although I can't seem to find it right now.

(BTW, we're not at an equinox right now - it's the winter solstice.)
 

rynner2

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Found it! My post proved to be the threadkiller on this little thread:

Doomed... We're All Doomed (Yet Again)
http://www.forteantimes.com/forum/viewt ... 636#580636

This thread (re-titled) now contains all the posts concerning lunar / tidal effects and earthquakes.

8)
 
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Analogue Boy

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rynner2 said:
jimv1 said:
For a while, I've been interested in a theory that goes along the lines of earthquakes increasing in magnitude around the time of a full moon, being particularly strong at the equinox.
I'm sure I've discussed this idea on this MB before, although I can't seem to find it right now.

(BTW, we're not at an equinox right now - it's the winter solstice.)

Yes I know... But if I'm not mistaken, the Icelandic Volcano began its eruption as near as dammit to the 20th March and that WAS an equinox.
 

Analogue Boy

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jimv1 said:
For a while, I've been interested in a theory that goes along the lines of earthquakes increasing in magnitude around the time of a full moon, being particularly strong at the equinox. So around this time I usually take a look at the USGS earthquake site....

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/

...Which tells me that in the last hour that Japan has been hit by a 7.4 with a tsunami warning.

The site shows that quakes happen all over the place all the time, but since the Boxing Day Tsunami I've looked to see if there's any proof in the numbers and I've come to the conclusion it's more probable that a large quake will occur around the time of a full moon and a few days after.



The proof of the Xmas pudding.....


Magnitude 7.3 - VANUATU REGION
2010 December 25 13:16:37 UTC



Powerful earthquake strikes South Pacific sparking tsunami alert

A powerful earthquake struck under the sea near Vanuatu early Sunday, generating a small tsunami in the South Pacific.

No damage or injuries were immediately reported.
The 7.3 magnitude quake struck Sunday just after midnight about 140 miles south of Vanuatu's capital, Port Vila.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... alert.html
 

rynner2

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Earthquakes and Eclipses

Earthquake hits North Yorkshire

A small earthquake has hit northern England, scientists have confirmed.

The British Geological Survey (BGS) said the 3.6-magnitude quake struck 9km north-west of Ripon in North Yorkshire just after 2100 GMT on Monday.

People in Bingley and Skipton, north-west of Leeds, reported feeling tremors, which were experienced across Cumbria and West Yorkshire.

The BGS said an earthquake of such size might be felt up to 100km away but was unlikely to cause much damage.

etc...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-12109625
This occurred just 12 hours before this:
Early partial solar eclipse for 2011
By Jonathan Amos, Science correspondent, BBC News

People standing across a great swathe of the Earth's surface are seeing the Moon take a big bite out of the Sun.

For north Africa and much of Europe, the event began at sunrise, whereas in central Russia and north-west China, the spectacle occurs at sunset.

North-east Sweden should have had the best sight. From 0850 GMT, near the city of Skelleftea, the Moon covered almost 90% of the Sun's diameter.

To get the best view, however, Swedish skywatchers will have had to have a high vantage point, as both celestial bodies were skirting the horizon at that time.

As is always the case for solar eclipses, the public has been warned to take great care.

Viewing the Sun's harsh light should only be done through protective equipment - proper solar glasses and solar telescopes, or through a pinhole projection system.

In many places, professional and amateur astronomy groups have set up safe observing systems. In the UK, for example, there were a series of events tied into the BBC's Stargazing Live programmes.

Partial solar eclipses occur when the Sun and Moon do not quite align in the sky as viewed from Earth, and the deep shadow cast by the smaller body passing across the bigger one just misses the planet.

etc...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12100295

The Cumbrian earthquake at the start of this thread took place just under a fortnight ago, about the time of the previous full moon.
 

Cultjunky

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Jimv1 - aren't there quakes somewhere in the world almost everyday?
 
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Analogue Boy

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Cultjunky said:
Jimv1 - aren't there quakes somewhere in the world almost everyday?

Yes there are. Loads of them. If you look at the USGS site you can keep tabs on them.

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/qed/

My interest is in the theory of what happens around the full moon and up to 6 days after and if quakes dramatically increase in magnitude.

The rough annual averages are around 13,000 quakes of M 4 to 4.9 compared to around 15 M7 - 7.9

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/ ... qstats.php


The 26th saw an M7.3 causing a sunami in the VANUATU REGION.

The quake triggered a tsunami – right on the same day when an earthquake triggered giant waves that devastated Aceh and a number of countries in the Indian Ocean, six years ago. At that time 220,000 people were killed.

The full moon was on the 21st.
 

rynner2

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jimv1 said:
My interest is in the theory of what happens around the full moon and up to 6 days after and if quakes dramatically increase in magnitude.
Tidal stresses increase up the the time of full and new moons and decrease thereafter.

This might be enough extra to turn a stressed faultline 'critical', but any earthquake activity after full or new moon would probably be due to other factors.

AFAIK, there's no strong correlation between earthquakes and moon phases (tidal forces are very small), but because there are so many earthquakes it's easy to cherry-pick examples that seem to show a link.
 

Analogue Boy

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I quite understand that it's easy to pick out the relevant data but as I said, I'm interested in what happens specifically on a full moon and around six days after.

Full moon - January 19th. SW Pakistan was hit by a 7.2 magnitude quake.

And today (ok - it's a couple of days outside my specified 6 days)...


Lightning and fire: Japan on alert after volcano's biggest eruption in 50 years

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... years.html
 

Analogue Boy

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Full moon Feburary 18th -

Four days later, a significant and catastrophic quake hits Christchurch, New Zealand.
A 6.3m quake has caused massive damage and loss of life.

Call it cherry-picking but I still think there's something to this.
 

rynner2

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New Zealand lies at the southern end of the so-called Pacific Ring of Fire, and above an area of the Earth's crust where the Pacific Plate converges with the Indo-Australian Plate.

The country experiences more than 14,000 earthquakes a year [ie, nearly 4 per day], of which only around 20 have a magnitude in excess of 5.0.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12533291
"I'm interested in what happens specifically on a full moon and around six days after."

Why that particular time-frame? Do you have a theory as to why earthquakes would be more likely then?
 

Pietro_Mercurios

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There was a 7.1 earthquake, near Christchurch, in Canterbury, NZ, on the 4th September, last year. That time almost no one was killed, or injured, owing to the fact that it took place at 4:35 am. Everybody was still in bed. This time, it looks like people haven't been so lucky.

According to a New Zealander on BBC Radio4, this morning, since that quake, there have been about 4000 aftershocks, leading up to this new one, most of which were too deep and slight to be felt. Plenty of warning, but still pretty grim.

:(
 

Analogue Boy

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Pietro_Mercurios said:
There was a full Moon on August 24th & September 23rd, 2010.

http://www.universetoday.com/20174/moon-phases-2010/

One site I have looked at on the moonquake theory mentions that the 4th would have been a new moon...and the one of the closest lunar encounters of the year...

The moon goes around the Earth every month, as well as coming in closer once a month, and in the week beginning 4 September it was New moon and the moon was the second closest distance to Earth for the whole year.

A fortnight beforehand the full moon was passing over close to the equator, which would have provided enough of a tidal force to lift that plate, in other words weaken it, and then a fortnight later when the moon was high in the N hem and just rising, it would have provided the lateral force required to trigger the rest. The unusual closeness of the moon is the key.

http://www.predictweather.com/ArticleSh ... &type=home

Another article from 2010 reports seismologists in Mumbai confirming their belief that the moon does indeed cause seismic activity here.

Seismologists at the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre have found that the earthquake counts go up steadily when the moon comes closer to the Earth (perigee) and also when it is Full Moon.

The scientists have also found that major earthquakes occur more in numbers when perigee coincides with Full Moon and New Moon than at apogee (position of moon farthest from earth) with similar combination, going upto a magnitude of 6.0 on the Richter scale, Dr Vinayak G Kolvankar, senior seismologist from BARC said.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 786771.cms
 

Mythopoeika

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I think it may be just a coincidence that a full moon appears near the date of an earthquake. If you take into account the fact that NZ has a staggering 14,000 earthquakes a year, it's just a numbers game.
I can't think of a scientific reason why a full moon would be more likely to cause an earthquake than at any other time.
 

rynner2

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jimv1 said:
One site I have looked at on the moonquake theory mentions that the 4th would have been a new moon...and the one of the closest lunar encounters of the year...
Well, that is just plain wrong! According to Heavens Above, the moon was roughly in its third quarter on that date.
http://www.heavens-above.com/skychart.a ... lacjcbfodl
(This may not be available if you're not registered.)

But the whole style of that site
http://www.predictweather.com/ArticleSh ... &type=home
is too New Agey to be believable:
Astrology talks about tension and harmony, and that is a function of particular angles between orbiting bodies like planets, and in this case the earth and moon. There are words in astrology like squaring, in opposition to, and there are names for other angles. Some angles are much more important than others. On the 4 September the node was potent, it was within 5 deg of the ecliptic, and it was potent in terms of angles because it was in opposition to the moon, and opposition is one of the more important angles in terms of creating tension. It's like if you are angry with someone you "face up" to them, so it's even in our language. And it means you are maximising your energies to create some movement that wasn't there before.
Yes, a Full or New Moon, especially at perigee, does exert maximum tidal effects, although these are still very small. But as it was not New Moon on this date, that is irrelevent!
On the 4 September the node was potent, it was within 5 deg of the ecliptic...
This is nonsense. The nodes of the moon's orbit are where it crosses the ecliptic, so they are always on the ecliptic!

As the moon's orbit is angled at 5 degrees to the ecliptic, the Moon itself is always within 5 deg of the ecliptic.

I really hate it when people use scientific terminology that they don't understand! :evil:
 

Anome

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I'm pretty sure if you check, there'll have been a full moon within about two weeks of every earthquake that's happened.
 

Analogue Boy

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Agreed - There is a lot of weird and woolly information out there on moon phases and perigee and apogee. And it is true that there are earthquakes occur everyday but it does seem to me that the larger and more destructive magnitudes (and more newsworthy) occur around the full moon and a few days after.

There's plenty of information out there from all quarters and the seismologists of Mumbai at least confirm the theory. I thought the purpose of this site was to encompass the weird and woolly so I'll leave it at that.
 

eburacum

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Wikipedia has a subpage about this
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthquake ... dal_forces
The latter, which arises from the periodic alignment of the Sun and Moon, has often been claimed in the popular press to incubate earthquakes (sometimes termed the "syzygy" effect) and occasionally for small datasets in the scientific literature (e.g.,[21]), but generally such effects do not appear in careful studies of large datasets.
So a few apparent correlations have been found over the years, but they seem to disappear in larger samples.
 

rynner2

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eburacum said:
Wikipedia has a subpage about this
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthquake ... dal_forces
The latter, which arises from the periodic alignment of the Sun and Moon, has often been claimed in the popular press to incubate earthquakes (sometimes termed the "syzygy" effect) and occasionally for small datasets in the scientific literature (e.g.,[21]), but generally such effects do not appear in careful studies of large datasets.
That Wiki section deals with Solar eclipses. But Sun-Earth-Moon alignments also occur at Lunar eclipses. So the Wiki account of syzygy should be expanded to:

For maximum tidal force, four factors must coincide: first, when the moon (in its elliptical orbit) is closest to the earth; second, when it is a new moon or full moon (so that the tidal forces of the moon and sun are acting in concert); third, when the earth (in its elliptical orbit) is at or near its closest distance to the sun; and fourth, when the Moon is near one of the nodes of its orbit, leading to a solar or Lunar eclipse.

(My bolds.)

Spring Tides (large tidal range) occur both at New and Full Moons, or a day or two later.
 

Analogue Boy

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Japanese Quake around 6 days after the New Moon.

The next Full Moon will be what's called a 'Supermoon' and will be the closest it's been to Earth in 18 years while at the same time being in full phase.
 

rynner2

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jimv1 said:
Japanese Quake around 6 days after the New Moon.
I still don't get where you're going with this! Any event (such as when I change my underwear) is within 6 or 7 days of a Full or New Moon. So what?

And 6 days after new moon is First Quarter, when the combined tide-raising (or gravitational) influence of Sun and Moon is at a minimum.

As for the 'supermoon', what do you expect? Care to give us a prediction we can check?

The Moon's orbit is very complex, and its nodes shift around regularly, leading to various interesting relationships, such as eclipse cycles:
See :- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saros_cycle

See also:- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lunar_precession
 

Cultjunky

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rynner2 said:
Any event (such as when I change my underwear) is within 6 or 7 days of a Full or New Moon. So what?

I'm sure there's a jibe in the offing about the gravitational effect of the Full Moon upon the adhesive properties of your underwear when thrown at a ceiling, but there are people with better talents than I on FTMB to undertake such an endeavour. ;)
 

Anome

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I'd be more concerned that he only changes them at most once a fortnight.

It's like digital watches causing plane crashes. In every plane crash of the last 30 years at least one passenger was wearing a digital watch. What does this signify?

Absolutely nothing.

And it's the same with the phase of moon and earthquakes.
 
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