Global Warming & Climate Change: The Phenomenon

Paul_Exeter

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It worth reading this article through - note it does NOT deny there is climate change, almost no-one does this, however, as a cheap shot at anyone who wants to discuss the actual data, it's effective.

https://unherd.com/2021/11/the-great-climate-change-fallacy/

Relating to the IPCC's original mission, in 2010:



The article makes the point that one of these original scenarios developed by the IPCC (12 years ago) is still being used to deliver messages, the one related to their worst case scenario 'RCP8.5':



In fact, due to reductions in emissions and changes in energy policy, we're now looking at...



...which, while not ideal, is not the 'we're all gonna die' scenario continually trotted out. The plain fact is, that the 'hopeless' message will have the opposite effect on general behaviour, as it's seen as a something no-one really has any control over. A more measured (and truer) message will probably have a far larger effect on the general population.

So my question is: why, given this well established backfire effect, do the powers that be persist in telling us 'we're all gonna die', unless we all give up our cars, electricity and economic stability?
One factor is that you have ideologies such as veganism jumping on the climate catastrophe bandwagon with dodgy anti-meat statistics to champion their chosen way of life and attempt to persuade governments to tax meat and also push the vegan agenda. I respect vegetarians but veganism has such a high failure rate* that it is never going to be an effective method of driving dietary change.

*A recent study found that over fifty per cent of UK adults who had embarked on a vegan diet failed after just two weeks, and just one in a hundred was still vegan a year later (and there is evidence the two/three year period sees further migration back to a vegetarian or omnivorous diet, including some well known bloggers).

https://inews.co.uk/news/environment/veganuary-2021-vegan-diet-most-people-dont-keep-up-834085
 

GNC

King-Sized Canary
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Yes, avoid prolonged sun exposure.
I hear the Salt Lake is drying up, which is another serious issue.

Not just sun exposure, but intense heat over a number of days or weeks is not good for the elderly.
 

charliebrown

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The western states have water restrictions as their many years of drought continues.

At least water is not a probably in our area.
 

charliebrown

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I never liked original formula Gatorade, but zero sugar Gatorade is not bad.

Unless you have to go somewhere, one does not stay out too long in 100 F or 38 C weather.

Midsummer is almost here.
 

Mungoman

Mostly harmless...
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I never liked original formula Gatorade, but zero sugar Gatorade is not bad.

Unless you have to go somewhere, one does not stay out too long in 100 F or 38 C weather.

Midsummer is almost here.
We work if it's less than 45 degrees - above that, sit down under a tree.

I laid a crowbar down, on the ground once while we had smokko, then went to pick it up - Lesson learnt. Won't do that again.
 

Mungoman

Mostly harmless...
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Mungoman,

In NSW I assume you are in the middle of winter ?
Yes C.B., Pretty much the middle of winter.

Yesterday morning I started off with Jeans, boots, a tee-shirt, flannelette shirt, Flying jacket to walk the hounds, (8:30), and by 1:00 pm I was down to Jeans and a tee-shirt. I love Inland Australian winters!
 

ramonmercado

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Eblana
Some polar bears adapting to changes

Polar bears have long been seen as a symbol of global warming's damaging impact on the natural world.

The bears rely on Arctic sea ice to hunt seals - so its decline puts the species at risk of extinction.
However, in a rare piece of hopeful news for the ice bears, scientists say several hundred in southeast Greenland have now adapted to hunt using freshwater platforms.
Researchers found the animals were using ice that breaks off glaciers.
"They survive in fjords that are sea ice-free more than eight months of the year because they have access to glacier - freshwater - ice", said University of Washington polar scientist Kristin Laidre, the study's lead author.
The findings, from a research team based at the University of Washington, open up the possibility that pockets of the species might survive despite rising temperatures.

"One of the big questions is where in the Arctic will polar bears be able to hang on," Dr Laidre said. "I think that bears in a place like this can teach us a lot about where those places might be."


The research team spent two years interviewing Inuit hunters, who shared their ecological knowledge of the area.
Travelling to the remote region using helicopters, they tagged the bears with satellite tracking devices and collected genetic samples.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-61835778
 

maximus otter

Recovering policeman
Joined
Aug 9, 2001
Messages
10,635
Some polar bears adapting to changes

Polar bears have long been seen as a symbol of global warming's damaging impact on the natural world.

The bears rely on Arctic sea ice to hunt seals - so its decline puts the species at risk of extinction.
However, in a rare piece of hopeful news for the ice bears, scientists say several hundred in southeast Greenland have now adapted to hunt using freshwater platforms.
Researchers found the animals were using ice that breaks off glaciers.
"They survive in fjords that are sea ice-free more than eight months of the year because they have access to glacier - freshwater - ice", said University of Washington polar scientist Kristin Laidre, the study's lead author.
The findings, from a research team based at the University of Washington, open up the possibility that pockets of the species might survive despite rising temperatures.

"One of the big questions is where in the Arctic will polar bears be able to hang on," Dr Laidre said. "I think that bears in a place like this can teach us a lot about where those places might be."


The research team spent two years interviewing Inuit hunters, who shared their ecological knowledge of the area.
Travelling to the remote region using helicopters, they tagged the bears with satellite tracking devices and collected genetic samples.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-61835778

"...survey results for 8 of the 19 polar bear subpopulations, only two of which showed insignificant declines after very modest ice loss. The rest were either stable or increasing, and some despite major reductions in sea ice. As a result, the global population size is now almost 30,000 – up from about 26,000 in 2015."

"...the official IUCN Red List global population estimate, completed in 2015, is 22,000-31,000 (average about 26,000) but surveys conducted since then, including those made public in 2020, would raise that average to almost 30,000. There has been no sustained statistically significant decline in any subpopulation."

https://www.thegwpf.org/its-not-a-myth-2020-was-another-good-year-for-polar-bears/

As of yesterday by coincidence, the discovery of a previously-unknown group of polar bears has increased their recorded population by about 300 to over 36,000.

If they hadn’t been made an icon of conservation and global warming, we’d probably be seeing their numbers listed as “burgeoning”.

maximus otter
 
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ramonmercado

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"...survey results for 8 of the 19 polar bear subpopulations, only two of which showed insignificant declines after very modest ice loss. The rest were either stable or increasing, and some despite major reductions in sea ice. As a result, the global population size is now almost 30,000 – up from about 26,000 in 2015."

"...the official IUCN Red List global population estimate, completed in 2015, is 22,000-31,000 (average about 26,000) but surveys conducted since then, including those made public in 2020, would raise that average to almost 30,000. There has been no sustained statistically significant decline in any subpopulation."

https://www.thegwpf.org/its-not-a-myth-2020-was-another-good-year-for-polar-bears/

As of yesterday by coincidence, the discovery of a previously-unknown group of polar bears has increased their recorded population by about 300 to over 36,000.

If they hadn’t been made an icon of conservation and global warming, we’d probably be seeing their numbers listed as “burgeoning”.

maximus otter

One day a polar bear will ambush you as you take aim at a deer!
 

Trevp666

It was like that when I got here.........honest!!!
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..survey results for 8 of the 19 polar bear
was that they said "where are all the penguins?". But we already knew that polar bears aren't too clever.
 

charliebrown

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A big heat high pressure area just sitting over the U.S. east of the Mississippi River producing 100 F temperatures.

It’s been so hot I saw the local squirrels fanning their nuts.

The local birds are dipping their worms in ice tea first.
 

Mungoman

Mostly harmless...
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There should be some way all that water could be piped to the west where it is needed in some way to keep it from flooding in the east.
We have the same problem in New South Wales.

There are massive amounts of river water pouring into the Tasman Sea/South Pacific constantly, and nearly every year, just over the Great Dividing Range one of our major inland river systems (Murray Darling Basin) stops flowing and then suffers from cyanobacteria (bluegreen algae).

We could harvest less than 1% of the flows from 4 northern NSW rivers and have every Inland dam, reservoir, and lake that contributes to the tributaries of the Murray Darling Basin (a major agricultural area), via the Darling River, full.

We could use solar power to pump that water through a ganged system of pumps when total capacity fell below 85%, allowing the Water Authority to maintain a 90% flow throughout one of the driest areas in Australia.

They keep saying it can't be done...but they are prepared to raise the height of existing dam walls and spend 8 Billion Australian dollars on altering an 80 year old river system....

You've got to ask yourself why it can't be done, when It was done in Western Australia by a gentleman called CY O'connor, who brought water inland 500 miles to Kalgoorlie district which is at an elevation of 630 feet...IN 1901!!

I'll get orf me soapbox now...
 

Trevp666

It was like that when I got here.........honest!!!
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They keep saying it can't be done
When the US managed to put men on the moon repeatedly, 50 years ago, and since then we have dug the longest tunnels through the alps, and the channel tunnel, and the huge dam in China, and other massive engineering projects around the world, I think you'll find that the only obstacles to any kind of project of that nature are money and the desire to do it.
 

Ronnie Jersey

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We have the same problem in New South Wales.

There are massive amounts of river water pouring into the Tasman Sea/South Pacific constantly, and nearly every year, just over the Great Dividing Range one of our major inland river systems (Murray Darling Basin) stops flowing and then suffers from cyanobacteria (bluegreen algae).

We could harvest less than 1% of the flows from 4 northern NSW rivers and have every Inland dam, reservoir, and lake that contributes to the tributaries of the Murray Darling Basin (a major agricultural area), via the Darling River, full.

We could use solar power to pump that water through a ganged system of pumps when total capacity fell below 85%, allowing the Water Authority to maintain a 90% flow throughout one of the driest areas in Australia.

They keep saying it can't be done...but they are prepared to raise the height of existing dam walls and spend 8 Billion Australian dollars on altering an 80 year old river system....

You've got to ask yourself why it can't be done, when It was done in Western Australia by a gentleman called CY O'connor, who brought water inland 500 miles to Kalgoorlie district which is at an elevation of 630 feet...IN 1901!!

I'll get orf me soapbox now...
And here, the local river overflows its banks with every single northeaster storm and hurricane.
The river has not been 'dredged' for many years, dredging helps to dig up the bottom, making it deeper. The sludge builds up on the bottom, and as the years go by, the river becomes more and more shallow, which allows more dangerous overflowing and major flooding.
Also, the flood gates are opened up north of us when storms dump too much water, increasing our flooding horrendously.
This has been an ongoing issue for many years and at election time the hopeful candidates come around with all their 'promises', blah blah.
I just close the door as they are talking, nothing is ever done and the situation is now ridiculous. We had a heavy thunderstorm a few weeks ago, and after 10 minutes our street was completely flooded, it was impossible for anyone to get to their car.
Moving on is the only solution.
 
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Tunn11

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I remember a TV interview during one of our numerous draughts.
After various weather people and water companies ranted on about water shortages they went to a guy who had set up schemes in the South Western US and Middle East.
"You don't have a water shortage, you have a water management problem." He then went on to outline all the rainfall in Wales, Scotland, etc. and even if that failed we are surrounded by the stuff and can de salinate it.
As Trev says, it's a money shortage, or rather an unwillingness to spend it.
 

Ascalon

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As parts of India and Bangladesh drown beneath flood waters, regarded as the worst in generations, Lake Sawa in Iraq dries up for the first time in history.
20220424_alsawalakeiraq_ok.jpg


It seems the immediate effects of the gradual climate warming is to make existing trends more extreme, accelerating what might have taken decades into years.

Even here in the outer islands of the continent, we are seeing changing patterns where rainfall becomes more infrequent but more extreme.
 

ramonmercado

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New theories on cause of Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.

There is no perfect parallel in Earth’s past for present-day climate change—human-driven warming is simply happening too fast and furiously. The closest analog came 56 million years ago, when over the course of 3000 to 5000 years, greenhouse gases soared in the atmosphere, causing at least 5°C of warming and pushing tropical species to the poles.

The cause of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) has long been debated, with researchers invoking exotic mechanisms such as catastrophic releases of methane from the sea floor or even asteroid strikes. But over the past few years, evidence has mounted for a more prosaic culprit: carbon-spewing volcanoes that emerged underneath Greenland as it tore away from Europe. Now, researchers have found signs of an effect that would have supercharged the warming effect of the volcanoes, making them a stronger suspect. The underside of Greenland is thought to be encrusted with carbon-rich rocks, like barnacles on the keel of a ship. During the rifting, they might have liberated a gusher of carbon dioxide (CO2), says Thomas Gernon, a geologist at the University of Southampton and leader of the new study. “It’s a perfect storm of conditions.”

The PETM has long fascinated paleoclimatologists. “Since dinosaurs kicked the bucket, this is the biggest global warming event we have,” says Pincelli Hull, a paleoclimate scientist at Yale University. It can yield clues to how quickly Earth warms as greenhouse gas levels rise and how climate extremes alter ecosystems. But the comparison to today isn’t exact. Although the total release of carbon during the PETM exceeded the total of today’s known oil and gas reserves, it was slower than today’s surge of greenhouse gases and drove more gradual warming. Life had more time to adapt than it does today: Fossil records show trees migrated uphill and to higher latitudes, with animals following in their wake, even as tropical corals disappeared and ecosystems wholly changed.

Past explanations for the PETM centered on methane, a greenhouse gas even more powerful than CO2 although shorter lived. Samples of ancient plankton shells seemed to show the atmosphere during the brief hothouse was enriched in light carbon, the isotope favored by life. That suggested the carbon responsible for the warming surge originated in living things, as most methane does, rather than in the gases spewed by volcanoes, which rise from deep Earth. ...

https://www.science.org/content/art...-may-have-sparked-ancient-bout-global-warming
 

Endlessly Amazed

Endlessly, you know, amazed
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"...survey results for 8 of the 19 polar bear subpopulations, only two of which showed insignificant declines after very modest ice loss. The rest were either stable or increasing, and some despite major reductions in sea ice. As a result, the global population size is now almost 30,000 – up from about 26,000 in 2015."

"...the official IUCN Red List global population estimate, completed in 2015, is 22,000-31,000 (average about 26,000) but surveys conducted since then, including those made public in 2020, would raise that average to almost 30,000. There has been no sustained statistically significant decline in any subpopulation."

https://www.thegwpf.org/its-not-a-myth-2020-was-another-good-year-for-polar-bears/

As of yesterday by coincidence, the discovery of a previously-unknown group of polar bears has increased their recorded population by about 300 to over 36,000.

If they hadn’t been made an icon of conservation and global warming, we’d probably be seeing their numbers listed as “burgeoning”.

maximus otter
Well, damn you and your inconvenient facts! (I hope you know I am joking, MO)
 
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