Global Warming & Climate Change: The Phenomenon

[Rubyait]

Ozone hole stable, say scientists

Leading scientists in the United States say the hole in the ozone layer of the Earth's atmosphere above the Antarctic appears to have stopped widening.
The ozone layer blocks the Sun's ultra-violet rays, exposure to which is harmful to humans, animals and plants.

International agreements were reached to end the use of ozone-depleting chemicals called CFCs after the hole was discovered in 1986.

It is hoped the hole may "heal" fully over the next 60 years.

Two of the scientists whose work helped alert the world to the existence of a hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s told a conference in Washington they were hopeful that the ozone layer was recovering.

"I'm very optimistic that we will have a normal ozone layer sometime, not in my lifetime, but perhaps in yours," said Dr David Hofman, who works for the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) as director of the Global Monitoring Division.

Dr Susan Solomon, of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, said she was also optimistic.

But she added: "There's a lot more to be done from a scientific perspective in terms of what I would call accountability.

"I think it's very important to make sure that we actually measure ozone - not only not getting any worse, but actually starting to improve, to be sure that the actions we have taken internationally have been effective."

The two scientists reaffirmed their findings at a news conference to mark the 20th anniversary of their research first alerting the world to the problems of ozone-depleting CFCs.

Treaty 'success'

The NOAA said the improvement in the ozone layer was caused largely by the phasing out of CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons) from products such as aerosol sprays and refrigerators.

The production of these chemicals was restricted by the Montreal Protocol which became effective in 1987 - and is deemed a success.

However, the chemicals brought in to replace CFCs are themselves not benign, and are thought to contribute heavily to global warming.

Ozone is a molecule that is composed of three oxygen atoms. It is responsible for filtering out harmful ultra-violet radiation (less than 290 nanometres) from the Sun.

The gas is constantly being made and destroyed in the stratosphere, about 30 km (19 miles) above the Earth. In an unpolluted atmosphere, this cycle of production and decomposition is in equilibrium.

But CFCs and the other Montreal-restricted chemicals will rise into the stratosphere where they are broken down by the Sun's rays. Chlorine and bromine atoms released from the man-made products then act as catalysts to decompose ozone.

The thinning that occurs over the Arctic has never matched that in the southern polar region and it is expected to recover sooner, sometime between 2030 and 2040.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/5276994.stm

 

[rynner2]

Appalling British weather blew out early settlers
Jonathan Leake, Science Editor

BRITAIN has had one of the most volatile climates on earth with up to 10 ice ages forcing early settlers into exile, leaving the land uninhabited for periods of up to 110,000 years, researchers have found.
A study — led by the Natural History Museum — of 700,000 years of human attempts to settle in Britain found that the Gulf Stream, which keeps the British Isles warm, kept collapsing, plunging them into Arctic cold. The lurches from temperate to freezing sometimes took as little as 10 years, says Professor Chris Stringer, head of human origins in the museum’s paleontology department, in a new book, Homo Britannicus, to be published in October.

After the last ice age humans returned to Britain only 11,500 years ago. Stringer said: “We might think that the roots of the British people lie deep in British soil but they can be traced back less than 12,000 years, far more shallow than those of our continental neighbours.”

His book summarises the findings of the Ancient Human Occupation of Britain (AHOB) project, a six-year study of thousands of artefacts and other remains left behind by prehistoric man during successive colonisations. Thirty archeologists, paleontologists and geologists from institutes across the country worked together to construct a detailed calendar of early humans’ arrivals and departures.

They concluded that the present temperate climate is an anomaly and steamy heat or bitter cold are far more typical.

Stringer said: “We have evidence that between 500,000 and 12,000 years ago humans were only in Britain for about 20% of the time. Between 180,000 and 70,000 years ago Britain was abandoned, completely empty of people.”

Such findings imply a major rewriting of British prehistory. It has long been known that climatic changes forced early humans out of Britain but not so many times.

There were other surprises, too. Until recently it was thought that the first humans arrived in southern Europe about 800,000 years ago but that none made it to Britain until 500,000 years ago. But Stringer says: “We have remarkable new evidence from East Anglia showing that humans arrived here 700,000 years ago, earlier than anyone believed. They lived in an environment with a balmy climate like that of southern Europe.”

Their stay was, however, not destined to last because about 470,000 years ago a huge ice cap spread across northern Europe, reaching the outskirts of what is now north London.

That glaciation was to be the first of many. By the time it receded, about 400,000 years ago, Neanderthals had evolved in Europe and it was they who recolonised Britain.

However, they too were driven out when the ice returned 380,000 years ago, a pattern that was to be repeated many times.

The most prolonged and enigmatic evacuation of Britain began with a new ice age that peaked about 140,000 years ago. When it finished, about 20,000 years later, many animals quickly returned to Britain, including deer, rhinoceroses, hippopotamuses and hyenas — but no humans. They remained absent for more than 100,000 years, says Stringer.

Eventually, about 60,000 years ago, Neanderthals did return to Britain, only to become extinct 30,000 years later.

Modern humans have proved better than Neanderthals at withstanding climatic changes but they, too, were driven back from Britain as a mile-thick ice-cap built up over Scotland 25,000 years ago, returning only 10,000 years later. The last ice age began 13,000 years ago and lasted 1,500 years.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0, ... 70,00.html

 

[Elidorius]

Bristol Tsunami

Mind you a tsunami seems somewhat unlikely in the severn estury

original post: [url=http://www.forteantimes.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=634945#634945]http://www.forteantimes.com/forum/viewt ... 945#634945[/url]

You'd be surprised:

1607 Flood in the Bristol Channel - Was it a UK tsunami?

Research into the devastating 1607 flood that affected Burnham-On-Sea and the Bristol Channel in January 1607 has, since 2002, been the subject of a study between Dr Simon Haslett, Head of Geography at Bath Spa University College, author of Coastal Systems and Dr Ted Bryant, School of Geosciences at the University of Wollongong, Australia, author of Tsunami: the Underrated Hazard.

The flood occurred around 9am on the '20th January 1606', although in the modern calendar this is the 30th January 1607. The event is recorded on plaques in a number of churches, including those at Kingston Seymour in Somerset, and in Monmouthshire at Goldcliff, St. Brides, Redwick and Peterstone.

Full story: http://www.burnham-on-sea.com/1607-flood.shtml

More info here: http://www.bathspa.ac.uk/schools/scienc ... efault.asp

 

[rynner2]

Re: Bristol Tsunami

Mind you a tsunami seems somewhat unlikely in the severn estury

original post: [url=http://www.forteantimes.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=634945#634945]http://www.forteantimes.com/forum/viewt ... 945#634945[/url]

You'd be surprised:

1607 Flood in the Bristol Channel - Was it a UK tsunami?

There was a Timewatch on it a while ago:
http://www.forteantimes.com/forum/viewt ... 959#521959

 

[Elidorius]

Superstorm?

1607 Flood in the Bristol Channel - Was it a UK tsunami?

There was a Timewatch on it a while ago:
http://www.forteantimes.com/forum/viewt ... 959#521959

Mmm. Saw it. The evidence was compelling. The other link I provided is the paper they wrote on it, which has more detailed references.

I chanced on chriswsm's post while trawling through this thread looking for mention of The Coming Global Superstorm by Whitley Strieber and Art Bell, the book that inspired the film The Day After Tomorrow. There's a thread for the film, but I didn't find the original book mentioned here, which surprised me, given the subject matter.

The film was rather cavalier with the theory in places, for example compressing events to make for a more movie-friendly screenplay, and many scientists were dismissive of the original Strieber/Bell book, but personally I always thought the original proposition had merit, and it seems to me it's being given more credibility by some of the research we're seeing published these days.

What does the panel think?

 

[ElishevaBarsabe]

Re: Superstorm?

...the original Strieber/Bell book, but personally I always thought the original proposition had merit, and it seems to me it's being given more credibility by some of the research we're seeing published these days.

What does the panel think?

Not a superstorm, but a massive climate change forcing very large populations to move. Some present deserts may become very wet, indeed, while present agricultural areas may become desert. But the changes, I think, will be a patchwork.

Our area has had very cool summers these last few years, but the summers aren't getting progressively colder here. This area seems to have hit a low and got stuck at it.

 

[bazizmaduno]

Melting ice dilutes northern seas
By Elli Leadbeater

Freshwater pouring into northern oceans is slowly turning high-latitude waters less salty.

Shrinking ice sheets and melting glaciers are partly responsible for the freshening effect, a review in the journal Science has confirmed.

If salinity levels continue to drop, dramatic changes to the North Atlantic currents could occur.

But more work is needed to be sure that rising global temperatures are to blame, say the authors.

"For the last 50 years, oceanographers have been cruising seas at northern latitudes taking vertical profiles of salinity, and they have observed gradual declines," said lead author Bruce Peterson, of the Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, US.

"The salt water, although still very salty, is getting fresher."

Warm shallows, cold depths

The volume of fresh water is a good match for the amount which rivers, precipitation, sea-ice melt and glacier melt are producing. Run-off from these sources must be creating the dilution effect, the researchers conclude.

The measurements are taken from the Nordic seas and Atlantic Sub-polar Basins.

Cold water from the Arctic is usually exchanged for warm water from the tropics in a self-propelling cycle.

In the north, the warm water arriving via surface currents sinks and flows back to warmer climes through the deep ocean. Because fresher water is less dense, it does not sink so far as salty water would at the same temperature.

If the trend continues, the changes to this current system may be significant. "It is expected that the North Atlantic circulation will slow down," said Professor Peterson.

Global warming or not?

But how likely is the trend to continue? It is not yet possible to be sure to what extent global warming can be blamed for the changes, say the authors.

Fluctuating salinity could potentially result from a normal periodical weather pattern known as the North Atlantic Oscillation index. If this index is high, seas in the north are less salty than average.

Until 1995, the changes were in line with what would be expected under the climatic conditions; but when the index changed recently, becoming low or neutral, the proportion of fresh water did not go down accordingly in some places.

So the greater bulk of fresh water running into the sea is probably - at least in part - due to rising global temperatures. "I suspect parts of it are due to global warming. It's a difficult quandary," said Professor Peterson.

If salt levels continue to decline, and currents change, the implications for aquatic ecosystems would be dramatic.

"The organisms in the oceans are affected by the distribution of sea ice, and by temperatures and salinity fields, and all of these would change," the author explained.

"Changes in these currents would have tremendous impact for fisheries and other species important to man."

from http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/5283570.stm

My climate model thing has approx 30min to run - I don't expect to live to see 2080. Sub-zero temperatures are seen again in Greenland's interior. The equatorial regions, however, look hot. I reckon all the computers running the model around the globe have contributed!

 

[Elidorius]

Re: Bristol Tsunami

I recently thought that the quote I gave -

The flood occurred around 9am on the '20th January 1606', although in the modern calendar this is the 30th January 1607. The event is recorded on plaques in a number of churches, including those at Kingston Seymour in Somerset, and in Monmouthshire at Goldcliff, St. Brides, Redwick and Peterstone.

Full story: http://www.burnham-on-sea.com/1607-flood.shtml

- was incorrect in saying "The flood occurred around 9am on the '20th January 1606', although in the modern calendar this is the 30th January 1607". I thought, on reflection, that the first date should read '20th January 1607', the difference in dates being down to the change from the Julian to the Gregorian calendar, which was imposed on Catholic countries by Papal Bull in 1582, but in England it wasn't adopted until 1752. A chunk of about 10 days "disappeared" when the change was eventually made. Wikipedia explains it here.

The date '20th January 1607' is used in the original paper by Edward Bryant and Simon Haslett at http://www.bathspa.ac.uk/schools/scienc ... stuary.pdf

This morning I contacted the webmaster of the site concerned, pointing it out and suggesting they correct it.

Then I did some further reading about the Julian/Gregorian changeover at Wikipedia, and had to write to the webmaster again:

Hello again -

I now realise that my recent message about your "incorrect" use of the date of '20th January 1606' on your tsunami page http://www.burnham-on-sea.com/1607-flood.shtml is itself, in all likelihood, in error!

Further reading at Wikipedia about the change of calendrical reckoning from the Julian to the Gregorian system has shown me that where dates fall at the beginning of the year, calculations can be rather confusing -

"A further complication is that the start of the Julian year was not always January 1st but was altered at different times in different countries. For a long time the year in England began on 25 March (Lady Day), so for example Elizabeth I of England was recorded as having died on 24 March 1602 (Old Style); this would be written 24 March 1603 in the modern system of numbering years. Although this would correspond to 3 April 1603 if fully converted into the Gregorian calendar, the month and day of a British event are normally not converted. For complete avoidance of ambiguity, historians write dates in the ambiguous part of the year in slashed format, for example "24 March/3 April 1602/1603 ..."

and

"Usually in modern histories, to avoid confusion and to keep dates consistent, the OS dates are mapped onto NS dates with an adjustment for the start of the year to 1 January. For example modern histories all state that Charles I of England was executed on 30 January 1649. But Parliamentary documents investigating the regicide during the Restoration eleven years later all state that the event happened on 30 January 1648."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Old_Style_ ... tyle_dates

Probably best to ignore me, then...

Sorry to have troubled you.

Best wishes,

Bob Kingsley

Always best not to jump in with both feet before making sure one is certain of the facts!

 

[Elidorius]

New Ice Cores = CO2 Up; Plankton CO2 Absorbtion Down

BBC News Online, Monday 4th September 2006:

Deep ice tells long climate story

Carbon dioxide levels are substantially higher now than at any time in the last 800,000 years, the latest study of ice drilled out of Antarctica confirms.

The in-depth analysis of air bubbles trapped in a 3.2km-long core of frozen snow shows current greenhouse gas concentrations are unprecedented.

The East Antarctic core is the longest, deepest ice column yet extracted.

Project scientists say its contents indicate humans could be bringing about dangerous climate changes.

"My point would be that there's nothing in the ice core that gives us any cause for comfort," said Dr Eric Wolff from the British Antarctic Survey (BAS).

"There's nothing that suggests that the Earth will take care of the increase in carbon dioxide. The ice core suggests that the increase in carbon dioxide will definitely give us a climate change that will be dangerous," he told BBC News.

The Antarctic researcher was speaking ... at the British Association's (BA) Science Festival.

Slice of history

The ice core comes from a region of the White Continent known as Dome Concordia (Dome C). It has been drilled out by the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (Epica), a 10-country consortium.

The column's value to science is the tiny pockets of ancient air that were locked into its millennia of accumulating snowflakes.

Each slice of this now compacted snow records a moment in Earth history, giving researchers a direct measure of past environmental conditions.

Not only can scientists see past concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane - the two principal human-produced gases now blamed for global warming - in the slices, they can also gauge past temperatures from the samples, too.

This is done by analysing the presence of different types, or isotopes, of hydrogen atom that are found preferentially in precipitating water (snow) when temperatures are relatively warm.

'Scary' rate

Initial results from the Epica core were published in 2004 and 2005, detailing the events back to 440,000 years and 650,000 years respectively. Scientists have now gone the full way through the column, back another 150,000 years.

The picture is the same: carbon dioxide and temperature rise and fall in step.

"Ice cores reveal the Earth's natural climate rhythm over the last 800,000 years. When carbon dioxide changed there was always an accompanying climate change. Over the last 200 years human activity has increased carbon dioxide to well outside the natural range," explained Dr Wolff.

The "scary thing", he added, was the rate of change now occurring in CO2 concentrations. In the core, the fastest increase seen was of the order of 30 parts per million (ppm) by volume over a period of roughly 1,000 years.

"The last 30 ppm of increase has occurred in just 17 years. We really are in the situation where we don't have an analogue in our records," he said.

Natural buffer

The plan now is to try to extend the ice-core record even further back in time. Scientists think another location, near to a place known as Dome A (Dome Argus), could allow them to sample atmospheric gases up to a million and a half years ago.

Some of the increases in carbon dioxide will be alleviated by natural "sinks" on the land and in the oceans, such as the countless planktonic organisms that effectively pull carbon out of the atmosphere as they build skeletons and shell coverings.

But Dr Corinne Le Quéré, of the University of East Anglia and BAS, warned the festival that these sinks may become less efficient over time.

We could not rely on them to keep on buffering our emissions, she said.

"For example, we don't know what the effect will be of ocean acidification on marine ecosystems. There is potential for deterioration," she explained.

More CO2 absorbed by the oceans will raise their acidity, and a number of recent studies have concluded that this increase in acidity will eventually disrupt the ability of marine micro-organisms to use the calcium carbonate in the water to produce their hard parts.

Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/5314592.stm

---

BBC News Online, Wednesday 30 August 2006:

Ocean plankton absorb less CO2

The amount of carbon absorbed by plant plankton in large segments of the Pacific Ocean is much less than previously estimated, researchers say.

US scientists said the tiny ocean plants were absorbing up to two billion tonnes less CO2 because their growth was being limited by a lack of iron.

Iron deposits provide nutrients for the microbes, which in turn grow by absorbing atmospheric carbon dioxide.

The findings have been published in the science journal Nature.

About 50 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide was estimated to be absorbed by the world's oceans, so the reduction could mean up to 4% less CO2 being sequestered than previously thought, the team of US researchers said.

Phytoplankton (tiny plants) play a key role in the world's carbon cycle, as they are involved in about half the Earth's photosynthesis; along with zooplankton (tiny animals), they form the base of the whole ocean food web.

Fluorescence fingerprint

The paper's lead author Michael Behrenfeld, from Oregon State University, said that when stressed by a lack of iron, the phytoplankton created additional pigments that glowed green, unlike normal pigments.

But satellite imagery used to monitor the oceans' plankton blooms could not distinguish the difference, he said: "That green colour was not an indication of health, it was an indication of stress from the lack of iron."

Professor Behrenfeld and his colleagues examined 12 years of data gathered from 36,000 miles (57,900 km) of ship tracks through the tropical Pacific Ocean.

This allowed them to establish a "fluorescence fingerprint" of what parts of the ocean were experiencing iron stress, as well as areas suffering from a lack of nitrogen - another key element for ocean productivity.

Professor Behrenfeld said: "Nitrogen and phosphorus are nutrients that come up from the ocean bottom to feed the upper water column.

"Iron, on the other hand, can come from the deep, but it also enters the ocean through dust deposited by the wind. Windstorms blowing sand and dust off large deserts are a major source of iron for the world's oceans," he added.

The researchers identified three large areas of the Pacific where phytoplankton appeared to be suffering from a lack of iron - the southern ocean around Antarctica, the sub-arctic north below Alaska, and a vast area in the tropical Pacific centred on the equator.

Many questions

Professor Peter Burkill, from the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, UK, said the study was a welcome contribution to the growing understanding of the oceans' role in the global carbon cycle.

"We use oceanographic research vessels but they are very limited in their operational capabilities and are also very costly.

"So we are turning to other techniques, such as satellite imagery. These are not perfect but they do have the advantage of allowing us to look at great swaths of the oceans," he added.

"Studies such as this help to calibrate these models but there are many other questions out there that still need to be answered, such as how the oceans' physics work and what happens to the carbon that is drawn down."

Professor Behrenfeld has also been involved in previous experiments in which iron was added to the ocean in an attempt to boost productivity.

The studies showed that it did boost phytoplankton growth, but it did not deliver the results that models had predicted.

Professor Behrenfeld said introducing iron was complex: "When you first do it, there is an explosion of growth.

"Then you add a bit more iron, and the phytoplankton respond a bit more," he said. "But at the same time you are promoting plankton growth, the grazers that feed on them come to life because they suddenly have a more abundant food supply."

Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/5298004.stm

 

[Rubyait]

... :arrow: ...

[/b]Arctic Ocean continues to freshen up

Fish accustomed to the salty water of the Arctic may have to think about finding a new home.

As a result of global warming, the Arctic Ocean has been getting less salty over the past half century and the trend looks set to continue. The culprits are a massive increase in rainfall over the Arctic and faster melting of sea ice and glaciers.

Bruce Peterson of the Marine Biological Laboratory in Woods Hole, Massachusetts, and his team gathered decades' worth of meteorological, river, sea-ice and glacier data from the Arctic region and used it to calculate the increase in fresh water input into the ocean. They calculated that increased rainfall and river outflow between 1965 and 1995 dumped an extra 20,000 cubic kilometres of freshwater into the ocean - equivalent to 40 years' flow from the Mississippi river. Melting sea ice contributed a further 15,000 km3 and glaciers 2000 km3. This is consistent with the observed decrease in the salinity of the Arctic Ocean over the same period.

"Our results show that there has been a global redistribution of fresh water, which is probably related to global warming," Peterson says.

Changes in patterns of atmospheric pressure over the North Atlantic, known as the North Atlantic Oscillation, appear to have speeded up the transfer of moisture from low to high latitudes. Climate models indicate that the effect will intensify, raising concerns about the flow of deep waters through the North Atlantic - driven by the sinking of dense, salty water at high latitudes. Disrupting this current could cause temperatures to plunge across northern Europe.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg1 ... en-up.html

 

[Rubyait]

... :arrow: ...



Artic Ocean continues to freshen up

Fish accustomed to the salty water of the Arctic may have to think about finding a new home.

As a result of global warming, the Arctic Ocean has been getting less salty over the past half century and the trend looks set to continue. The culprits are a massive increase in rainfall over the Arctic and faster melting of sea ice and glaciers.

Bruce Peterson of the Marine Biological Laboratory in Woods Hole, Massachusetts, and his team gathered decades' worth of meteorological, river, sea-ice and glacier data from the Arctic region and used it to calculate the increase in fresh water input into the ocean. They calculated that increased rainfall and river outflow between 1965 and 1995 dumped an extra 20,000 cubic kilometres of freshwater into the ocean - equivalent to 40 years' flow from the Mississippi river. Melting sea ice contributed a further 15,000 km3 and glaciers 2000 km3. This is consistent with the observed decrease in the salinity of the Arctic Ocean over the same period.

"Our results show that there has been a global redistribution of fresh water, which is probably related to global warming," Peterson says.

Changes in patterns of atmospheric pressure over the North Atlantic, known as the North Atlantic Oscillation, appear to have speeded up the transfer of moisture from low to high latitudes. Climate models indicate that the effect will intensify, raising concerns about the flow of deep waters through the North Atlantic - driven by the sinking of dense, salty water at high latitudes. Disrupting this current could cause temperatures to plunge across northern Europe.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg1 ... en-up.html

 

[Elidorius]

Re: Superstorm?

...the original Strieber/Bell book, but personally I always thought the original proposition had merit, and it seems to me it's being given more credibility by some of the research we're seeing published these days.

What does the panel think?

Not a superstorm, but a massive climate change forcing very large populations to move. Some present deserts may become very wet, indeed, while present agricultural areas may become desert. But the changes, I think, will be a patchwork.

Our area has had very cool summers these last few years, but the summers aren't getting progressively colder here. This area seems to have hit a low and got stuck at it.

Thanks for responding to my question, ElishevaBarsabe. Can't disagree with you about how extensive the influence of climate change will ultimately be (where do you live, by the way?), but what exercises me is how quickly our situation may tip from precarious into catastrophic. The Strieber/Bell superstorm argument doesn't suggest a progressive change over time (though its precursors will, of course, build up over years, which is what we're seeing), but that there will be a specific upheaval that will be sudden and violent, as though an elastic band, stretched to its limit, was suddenly let go.

By definition, a superstorm would involve an entire hemisphere. Its winds would reach extreme velocities, possibly in excess of two hundred miles an hour.

The storm would be triggered by a sudden increase in Arctic temperatures at the surface - exactly the kind of warm snap that could occur at any time during the global warming scenario presently unfolding - combined with extreme cold aloft. This warm flow of air would heat an ocean surface already affected by a loss of salinity due to polar melt and runoff from Greenland. The lack of salt in the water would cause it to take on heat quickly. At that point, the flow of the North Atlantic current would suddenly change, dropping south.

When this happened, the ultracold air trapped above the arctic by the warm airflow would slide southward, with a violent outcome.

The storm would last until the ocean cooled enough for the flow of the current to be reestablished. Before that happened, there would be a massive blizzard or series of blizzards that would dump billions of tons of snow across a fifth of the earth's surface. When the sun finally did return, the huge increase in the earth's albedo, or reflectivity, caused by the snow, would cause a dramatic drop in temperature. Whether the ice would melt or persist across the next summer would depend on its depth. If it persisted, a cooling trend of some duration would result. There would even be a possibility that a new ice age would begin ...

The evidence that long-term changes in climate do take place is irrefutable. The ice keeps coming back, and we aren't sure why. But something acts as the trigger, and we know that this event is a sudden one.

The Coming Global Superstorm, Whitley Strieber & Art Bell, Pocket Books, 2000, pp/102-103

Earlier, rynner posted:

Appalling British weather blew out early settlers

Britain has had one of the most volatile climates on earth with up to 10 ice ages forcing early settlers into exile, leaving the land uninhabited for periods of up to 110,000 years, researchers have found.

A study — led by the Natural History Museum — of 700,000 years of human attempts to settle in Britain found that the Gulf Stream, which keeps the British Isles warm, kept collapsing, plunging them into Arctic cold. The lurches from temperate to freezing sometimes took as little as 10 years, says Professor Chris Stringer, head of human origins in the museum’s paleontology department ...

Modern humans ... were driven back from Britain as a mile-thick ice-cap built up over Scotland 25,000 years ago, returning only 10,000 years later. The last ice age began 13,000 years ago and lasted 1,500 years.

(My emphasis.)

Now we have:

... As a result of global warming, the Arctic Ocean has been getting less salty over the past half century and the trend looks set to continue. The culprits are a massive increase in rainfall over the Arctic and faster melting of sea ice and glaciers ... Changes in patterns of atmospheric pressure over the North Atlantic, known as the North Atlantic Oscillation, appear to have speeded up the transfer of moisture from low to high latitudes. Climate models indicate that the effect will intensify, raising concerns about the flow of deep waters through the North Atlantic - driven by the sinking of dense, salty water at high latitudes. Disrupting this current could cause temperatures to plunge across northern Europe.

Sounds to me worryingly like the elastic band's becoming increasingly stretched. How much further can it go before it snaps back?

Whitley Strieber's web site, Unknown Country, has a "Quickwatch" section - http://www.unknowncountry.com/edge/quickwatch/

- which provides weekly updated monitoring of Gulf Stream Flow (currently normal flow off US, declines toward Europe), Polar Ice Cap Status (currently low ice cover), Magnetic North Pole Air Temperature (currently high for season), Northern Norway Air Temperature (currently normal for season), Canada Air Temperature (currently normal for season), Northern Siberia Air Temperature (currently normal for season), and Barrow, Alaska Air Temperature (currently normal for season). Sudden Climate Change Probability is LOW.

 

[crunchy5]

Thanks for the useful links Elidorius. 8) 8)

 

[Elidorius]

The Arctic Oscillation - Beware the Negative Phase

With reference to the above post about the Global Superstorm scenario, it seems we should keep an eye out for news items informing us that the Arctic Oscillation is slipping into a negative phase (my emphasis below) ...

12th March, 2003, NASA: The 1991 Mount Pinatubo Eruption Provides A Natural Test For The Influence Of Arctic Circulation On Climate

A recent NASA-funded study has linked the 1991 eruption of the Mount Pinatubo to a strengthening of a climate pattern called the Arctic Oscillation. For two years following the volcanic eruption, the Arctic Oscillation caused winter warming over land areas in the high and middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, despite a cooling effect from volcanic particles that blocked sunlight.

One mission of NASA’s Earth Science Enterprise, which funded this research, is to better understand how the Earth system responds to human and naturally-induced changes, such as large volcanic eruptions.

"This study clarifies the effect of strong volcanic eruptions on climate, important by itself, and helps to better predict possible weather and short-term climate variations after strong volcanic eruptions," said Georgiy Stenchikov, a researcher at Rutgers University’s Department of Environmental Sciences, New Brunswick, N.J., and lead author on a paper that appeared in a recent issue of the Journal of Geophysical Research.

A positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation has slowly strengthened over the few last decades and has been associated in prior research with observed climate warming.

"The study has important implications to climate change because it provides a test for mechanisms of the Arctic Oscillation," Stenchikov said.

A positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation (top diagram) is associated with strengthening of winds circulating counterclockwise around the North Pole north of 55°N, that is, roughly in line with Moscow, Belfast, and Ketchikan, Alaska. In winter these winds pull more warm air from oceans to continents causing winter warming, and like a top spinning very fast, they hold a tight pattern over the North Pole and keep frigid air from moving south. Cool winds sweep across eastern Canada while North Atlantic storms bring rain and mild temperatures to Northern Europe. Drought conditions prevail over the Mediterranean region.

During the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (bottom diagram), cool continental air plunges into the Midwestern United States and Western Europe while storms bring rainfall to the Mediterranean region.

According to this research, temperature changes caused by a radiative effect of volcanic aerosols in two lower layers of the atmosphere, the troposphere and the stratosphere, can lead to a positive Arctic Oscillation phase. The troposphere extends from Earth’s surface to an altitude of 7 miles in the polar regions and expands to 13 miles in the tropics. The stratosphere is the next layer up with the top at an altitude of about 30 miles.

The study uses a general circulation model developed at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to simulate how volcanic aerosols following the Pinatubo eruption impacted the climate.

In the troposphere, volcanic aerosols reflect solar radiation and cool the Earth’s surface, decreasing temperature differences between the equator and the North Pole in the bottom atmospheric layer. These changes end up inhibiting processes that slow counterclockwise winds that blow around the North Pole mostly in the stratosphere. This in turn strengthens a positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation.

In the stratosphere, volcanic aerosols absorb solar radiation, warm the lower stratosphere (about 15 miles above the Earth’s surface) and increase stratospheric temperature differences between the equator and the North Pole. These changes strengthen westerly winds in the lower stratosphere and help to create a positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation.

In previous research, an observed positive Arctic Oscillation trend has been attributed to greenhouse warming that led to an increase of stratospheric temperature differences between equator and pole. But this study finds that tropospheric temperature change in the course of climate warming may play an even greater role.

In one type of computer simulation, Stenchikov and colleagues isolated the contribution of a decreased temperature difference in the troposphere, and found that it could produce a positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation by itself. That’s because greenhouse heating near the North Pole melts reflective sea ice and snow, and reveals more water and land surfaces. These surfaces absorb the Sun’s rays and increasingly warm the Earth’s polar regions. Polar heating at the Earth’s surface lessens the temperature differences between the equator and North Pole in the troposphere, which ultimately strengthens a positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation.

The study also finds that when aerosols get into the stratosphere, very rapid reactions that destroy ozone (especially in high latitudes) take place on the surfaces of aerosol particles. When ozone gets depleted, less UV radiation is absorbed in the stratosphere. This cools the polar stratosphere, and increases the stratospheric equator-to-pole temperature difference, creating a positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation. Ozone data were obtained from NASA’s Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) satellite and ozonesonde observations.

Source: http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/new ... aopin.html

Keep an eye on what the Arctic Oscillation is doing at the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip ... x/ao.shtml

(The place is full of jargon, but there are loads of graphs to look at - and there are lots of other interesting climate-related maps and things.)

 

[Elidorius]

UK Weather Site - The Weather Outlook (TWO)

Another quick post - not had a chance to dig in to this site yet but it looks interesting for UK residents: The Weather Outlook (TWO):

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

The TWO UK seasonal forecast for autumn is now available ...

The headline is for the autumn period to be slightly milder than the long term average overall, but this will mask large variation in the weather. Although we expect high pressure to bring significant spells of settled weather, we also think there is a greater likelihood this year of some very stormy conditions developing. One notable thing this year so far has been that once a particular type of weather has become established, it has tended to persist for some time, and this may well continue to be the case during the next few months. The autumn forecast covers the period from 1st September to 30th November.

 

[Elidorius]

Russian Scientist Predicts Global Cooling

Coming thick and fast today!

UPI, 25th August - Moscow:

A Russian scientist predicts a period of global cooling in coming decades, followed by a warmer interval.

Khabibullo Abdusamatov expects a repeat of the period known as the Little Ice Age. During the 16th century, the Baltic Sea froze so hard that hotels were built on the ice for people crossing the sea in coaches.

The Little Ice Age is believed to have contributed to the end of the Norse colony in Greenland, which was founded during an interval of much warmer weather.

Abdusamatov and his colleagues at the Russian Academy of Sciences astronomical observatory said the prediction is based on measurement of solar emissions, Novosti reported. They expect the cooling to begin within a few years and to reach its peak between 2055 and 2060.

"The Kyoto initiatives to save the planet from the greenhouse effect should be put off until better times," he said. "The global temperature maximum has been reached on Earth, and Earth's global temperature will decline to a climatic minimum even without the Kyoto protocol."

Source: http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/view.php?S ... 1321-7556r

Whitley Strieber's Unknown Country newsletter, which linked to this item this week, says: "Unknown Country has already reported both on the fact that the solar max (due to start in 2010) is expected to be the most powerful in at least half a century AND that recent backward sunspots mean that it's starting early*. While almost nobody in the scientific community would agree with Abdusamatov now, in fact, the sun is acting in an unusual manner, and if a repeat of the output decline that caused the Little Ice Age (1550-1850) were to unfold, it might well happen again."

* http://www.unknowncountry.com/news/?id=5538

 

[Elidorius]

"Europe's glaciers in retreat"

BBC News Online, Wednesday 6 September 2006:

Shrinking glaciers are causing tonnes of rock to break loose from one of Switzerland's most famous mountains, the Eiger, and crash into the valley below.

Upper Grindelwald glacier in 2000 and 1910
- the ice retreat is visible

On the east face of the Eiger, two million cubic metres of rock, enough to build two Empire State Buildings, is gradually splitting away from the main mountain.

Until recently, the rock was held in place by the ice of the lower Grindelwald glacier, but now the ice has melted, revealing a mass of unstable limestone.

Scientists say climate change is to blame for the disappearing ice.

In the 19th Century, the lower Grindelwald glacier stretched right down into the valley itself. Local people once even made a living from it, sending cartloads of ice to Paris, where the fashionable cafes used it in cocktails.

All over the Alps, glaciers have been shrinking, but what is worrying scientists most is the accelerated thaw that has taken place since the 1980s. During that time, Alpine glaciers have lost around 25% of their surface.

At Switzerland's Alpine Museum, an exhibition calling attention to the plight of the glaciers has just opened.

Entitled Glaciers in the Hothouse, the exhibition has dozens of pictures of Europe's glaciers from different periods in history. Organisers say the retreat of the last few years is the best visible proof of worldwide global warming.

Martin Grosjean, a specialist in glaciers and climate change at Berne University, says the current meltdown is simply not normal.

"We've got records on glaciers going back hundreds of years," he explained. "And it is completely normal for them to retreat and then grow, in response to the usual variations in climate. But what we are seeing now is extreme; an extreme reaction to extreme climate changes - it's a response to global warming caused by greenhouse gases."

High alert

For the time being, the Eiger's loose rock is not a hazard to local people because the boulders are crashing down into an uninhabited gorge.

Nevertheless Grindelwald's rescue services are on high alert. Many paths in the region of the glacier are closed, others have new signs warning that the frequent rock falls may cause dust clouds, poor visibility, changes in air pressure, and even small earthquakes.

Geologist Hansrudolf Keusen has spent much of the summer keeping a watchful eye on the Eiger. Each week, he surveys the loose limestone, and checks the water level in the gorge below.

Once a favourite tourist attraction, it is now closed, and the air is thick with the dust from fallen rock.

"In fact the biggest danger is down here," he said. "Not because a rock might fall on someone, because we've closed this area. But the water in this gorge is the normal glacial melt water. If the falling rocks created a dam here, we could end up with a flood wave that could sweep down not just into Grindelwald, but all the way to Interlaken."

And even if there is no immediate danger, the consequences of such a huge rock fall are alarming to the thousands of tourists who flock to the resort of Grindelwald every year.

When 400,000 of those two million cubic metres fell down all at once, the village was shrouded in a thick cloud of dust for several hours.

Tourism is hugely important to Switzerland's economy, so officials are keen now to reassure visitors that everything is being done to ensure their safety.

"The Alps are not going to fall down overnight," said Hansrudolf Keusen. "They'll be with us for many years to come. But we do have to prepare for more events like this. We are already working on improving the safety on hiking trails, and on mountain railways. But at the same time, climbers and hikers will have to be more watchful too."

Europe's water tower

In the long term, however, scientists see the melting glaciers as problematic not just for Alpine tourist resorts, but for Europe as a whole.

Glaciers are also an important source of water; without them, summer water levels in Europe's rivers would drop substantially. In June, July and August, more than half the water in the Rhine is glacial melt water.

Falling river levels would threaten crop irrigation, and obstruct freight traffic on Europe's waterways.

"Switzerland's glaciers are often called the water towers of Europe," explained Martin Grosjean. "They supply the rivers, and if there's not enough water in the rivers, you can't for example cool down nuclear power stations, that has a dramatic effect on power generation. Then there will be dramatic effects on agriculture because you won't have water to irrigate the crops. Glaciers are an important indicator of the water cycle. They show that the water available during the seasons is changing rapidly, and the question is how can society cope with long term water shortages."

That is a question that is becoming increasingly urgent; the most recent study into glaciers, from the University of Zurich, found that if global warming continues at its present rate, Europe's icecaps could be gone by the end of this century.

As the Swiss Alpine Museum puts it, we may be the last generation to be able to admire the "magnificent giants of ice".

Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/5306818.stm

 

[Elidorius]

The Amazon drought and its climatic connotations

Unknown Country, 6 September 2006:

Death of the Amazon—Why it Matters to US

A severe drought has been affecting the amazon—the world's largest rainforest—for two years, but this has gone unreported here in the U.S.

But the rest of the world is paying attention. In the New Zealand Herald, reporter Geoffrey Lean writes that "one further dry year … could tip the whole vast forest into a cycle of destruction" causing the rest of the world to become "hot ter and drier"—in other words, a "worldwide catastrophe."

Lean quotes Brazilian researcher Antonio Nobre as saying that cutting down so many of the rainforest trees in order to create new farm land not only dries up the remaining brush, leading to forest fires, but also fuels hurricanes because "the hot, wet Amazon normally evaporates vast amounts of water, which rise high into the air as if in an invisible chimney, drawing in wet northeast trade winds, which have picked up moisture from the Atlantic. This, in turn, controls the temperature of the ocean—as the trade winds pick up the moisture, the warm water left gets saltier and sinks … [the] result is that the hot water in the Atlantic stays on the surface and fuels the hurricanes. Another is that less moisture arrives on the trade winds, intensifying the forest drought."

Source: http://www.unknowncountry.com/news/?id=5581

 

[rynner2]

British species migrate northward
By Jonathan Amos
Science reporter, BBC News, Norwich

Right across Britain, animals are on the march, moving northwards and going to higher ground as the climate warms, experts have told a major conference.

The scientists have studied how the ranges of more than 300 species - from small mammals to insects - have changed over the past 25 years.

About 80% of them have extended the northern margin of their domains, with an average shift of 30-60km.

Researchers outlined their findings at the BA Festival of Science in Norwich.

Chris Thomas from the University of York said the changes fitted neatly with the predictions of climate models.

"Species are moving north, they're climbing mountains, they're retreating at their southern boundaries," the professor added.

"To me, 80% is an incredibly high percentage of species, given all the other changes we've made to our landscape over the past 25-50 years. It's amazing how strong already the signature of climate change is."

Professor Thomas was detailing the analysis here at the British Association's Science Festival.

Global picture

The UK has extensive records for the distribution of a wide range of animals, probably the richest data sets in the world.

The study, performed by a number of scientists including Chris Thomas under the leadership of Rachael Hickling from the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, looked at 16 different groups of vertebrates and invertebrates.

Species covered ranged from dragonflies and spiders through to birds and mammals.

As well as the northward migration, some 70% of species shifted the elevations at which they commonly live, climbing on average by between five and 10 metres per decade.

Of the groups studied, only three species of amphibians and reptiles significantly moved south and to lower ground.

"It's becoming clear that the vast majority of species are behaving in similar ways. They are doing so in quite different taxonomic groups and in quite different parts of the world - essentially all parts of the world," said Professor Thomas.

A new mix

The York scientist said there was still great uncertainty as to how individual species would fare as the global climate continued to warm; but the prospects for many were not good, he argued.

Some would benefit from the higher temperatures and changes in vegetation that this would bring; others would struggle as their habitats were overtaken.

"Some 'cold-adapted northerner' species might be perfectly happy with a warmer climate until the 'heat-loving southerners' arrive and displace them," he said.

"Global temperatures and CO2 levels are expected to be higher than those experienced for millions of years, such that few of the individual species that currently exist, and none of the combinations of species we currently possess, will have experienced such conditions previously."

The results of the range change analysis were recently published in the journal Global Change Biology.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/5324756.stm

 

[Elidorius]

'Drastic' shrinkage in Arctic ice

BBC News Online, Thursday 14 September 2006:

A Nasa satellite has documented startling changes in Arctic sea ice cover between 2004 and 2005.

The extent of "perennial" ice - thick ice which remains all year round - declined by 14%, losing an area the size of Pakistan or Turkey.

The last few decades have seen ice cover shrink by about 0.7% per year.

The drastic shrinkage may relate partly to unusual wind patterns found in 2005, though rising temperatures in the Arctic could also be a factor.

The research is reported in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

The Arctic is warming about twice as fast as the global average.

Perennial decay

Recent studies have shown that the area of the Arctic covered by ice each summer, and the ice thickness, have been shrinking.

September 2005 saw the lowest recorded area of ice cover since 1978, when satellite records became available.

This latest study, from scientists led by Son Nghiem of Nasa's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California, measures something slightly different from the extent of summer ice cover - the extent of "perennial" ice cover.

Perennial or "multi-year" ice is up to 3m thick and survives through at least one summer. It is different from "seasonal" ice, which is thinner and melts more easily, surviving for just one winter before succumbing to the summer sun.

"Perennial ice contains less salinity," explained Dr Nghiem. "It's freshwater ice - there are more bubbles in it and typically its surface is much rougher - and a scatterometer [a radar-based instrument] can distinguish between the two types."

Using the scatterometer on Nasa's Quikscat satellite, researchers scanned the Arctic for perennial and seasonal ice. From October 2004 to March 2006 they plotted a steady decline.

When they compared figures for the 2004 and 2005 northern hemisphere winter solstices - 21 December - a huge change showed up.

Annual Arctic air temperatures relative to the 1961-1990 average

"In previous years there is some variability, but it is much smaller and regional," Dr Nghiem told the BBC News website.

"However the change we see between 2004 and 2005 is enormous."

The area of perennial sea ice lost was about 730,000 sq km, with a huge loss in the East Arctic (defined as north of Russia and Europe) and a small gain in the West Arctic, north of the Americas and the Atlantic Ocean.

Stray winds

Continuous scatterometer data has been available only since 1999, so for comparison researchers must use the records of summer ice extent - which is almost, but not exactly, the same thing as perennial ice extent.

"If we average that over the long term we find a reduction of between 6.4% and 7.8% per decade," said Dr Nghiem. "What we have here is 14% in one year - 18 times the previous rate."

The key questions are what caused it, and whether it is an anomaly or the first sign of a major change of pace for Arctic melting.

Quikscat also monitors winds, and noted unusual patterns of wind in the East Arctic in 2005 which could be related, perhaps propelling old ice from east to west, though how that could explain such a drastic loss of perennial ice is not clear.

If the pace of Arctic melting is quickening, the implications for the future are not reassuring.

Ice reflects the Sun's energy back into space; open water absorbs it. So a planet with less ice warms faster, potentially turning the projected impacts of global warming into reality sooner than anticipated.

Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/5344208.stm

 

[Elidorius]

The Coming Global Superstorm ... Coming Closer?

At the Unknown Country site, Whitley Strieber writes in his Journal, 11 September 2006 (this is an extract):

There are so many things wrong environmentally that I can’t even begin to list them all. The three most serious that I know about are the Amazonian drought, the rapid decline of the Gulf Stream and the massive outgassing of methane from melting Arctic permafrost.

These are very serious and immediate problems, and all the wars and violence and ideological conflict that owns the news right now is really of very little importance in comparison. Indeed, our obsession with these issues almost seems like a sort of evil spell cast over us, which has as its hidden purpose the extinction of the human species.

Which is what will happen, if these problems are allowed to gain any traction. And, frankly, there is not a lot of time between now and then. The methane outgassing is a self-strengthening process, in the sense that the more methane that enters the atmosphere the hotter it becomes, and the greater melt releases yet more methane.

In the past, every ice age has been preceded by just such a methane spike, then a period of climate chaos, then the coming of the ice. What happens is that the sudden heating of air near the surface across the arctic, caused by a combination of CO2 and methane in the atmosphere, with the highest methane concentrations in the arctic where it is being produced, results in an explosive storm of the type depicted in Superstorm and The Day After Tomorrow. This happens when the warm surface air rises into the ultra-cold upper atmosphere above the arctic—which will be made far colder even than normal by the fact that the methane is preventing the heat from radiating upward.

After the storm, a very large area, perhaps a quarter or more of the northern hemisphere, lies under a blanket of snow that does not melt the following summer, because the whiteness of it reflects so much heat that not even the methane can prevent it, and the next winter and the winter after, and on down the ages, the snows come.

However, we are also outgassing methane at such a high rate that it’s almost unprecedented. It could be that the lower atmosphere will actually heat up all but the very highest layers of the upper atmosphere, and the planet’s temperatures will even out.

Temperature differences between the equator and the arctic are what drive weather patterns. If they even out, weather ends. To an extent, this is already happening. It’s why there have been so many fewer hurricanes this season than the experts predicted, and it’s a very ominous development.

If the jet streams follow the Gulf Stream into extinction, then atmospheric circulation ends and cities across the world literally suffocate. A quarter of a billion people or more could smother to death in pollution choked cities, under this scenario. By the time it was over, perhaps a third of the human population would have vanished.

Adding the death of the Amazon to the mix makes the picture even more hideous. If this happens, a mass human extinction will unfold over the next quarter century, as the ruins of the forest dump trillions of tons of CO2 into the atmosphere, instead of the trillions of tons of oxygen that come from the area now.

So, then, why are we preoccupied by the mirage of war when we need to be looking to the survival of our children and grandchildren?

Source: http://www.unknowncountry.com/journal/?id=250

 

[Rubyait]

Environmental damage highlighted by Google Earth

Rampant forest destruction, retreating glaciers and explosive urban growth have been highlighted by a partnership between the United Nations and internet search giant Google.

Under the scheme, announced by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) on Wednesday, before-and-after satellite images of 100 global environmental hotspots have been integrated into Google's popular mapping program, Google Earth.

"These satellite pictures are a wake-up call to all of us to look at the sometimes devastating changes we are wreaking on our planet," UNEP chief Achim Steiner said in a statement.

Spectacular imagery
He described the selection photographs as "spectacular imagery" that offered a compelling "new way of visualising the dangers facing our planet today", and said it would lead to greater awareness and concern about ecological damage.

"By tapping into the global Google community, we are able to reach out to millions of people who can mobilise and make a difference," Steiner said.

Google Earth, which offers satellite images of the planet, has about 100 million users worldwide, who will now be able to use the program to access UNEP's "Atlas of Our Changing Environment".

Users can view the UNEP content by clicking on "Featured Content" in the program. This produces UNEP markers on each of the 100 hotspots and the before-and-after images are revealed by clicking on these markers.

Urban growth
Among the 100 "hotspots" included are the dwindling Amazon rainforest, melting polar ice caps, and the startling declines of Central Asia's Aral Sea and Africa's Lake Chad, shown in satellite images captured between 1963 and 2004. The rapid urbanisation of the US city of Las Vegas, between 1973 and 2000, and southern Chinese metropolis of Shenzen, between 1979 and 2004, is also shown.

Other crisis points highlighted include the rampant destruction of mangrove forests in Southeast Asia, notably in Thailand and Malaysia, and the effects of open-pit oil exploration in the Athabasca region of Canada's Alberta province.

The UNEP hotspots were added using Google's Keyhole Markup Language. Other information has been added to Google Earth by National Geographic, the Jane Goodall Institute, the US National Park Service, and Discovery Networks.

http://www.newscientisttech.com/article ... earth.html

 

[Elidorius]

Yorkshire "Big clean-up after storm damage"

BBC News Online, Friday 15 September 2006:

Schools, homes and businesses have been mopping up after torrential storms struck West and North Yorkshire.

About 10 days' worth of rain fell in half an hour and some homes were hit by tornados in Leeds and Harrogate.

Three schools in Leeds - Guiseley High, Hunslet Moor Primary and most of South Leeds High - were closed on Friday, as the clean-up operation continued.

Train services were returning to normal after lightning strikes hit signals at Leeds station during Thursday's storms.

Insurance assessors were inspecting the damage caused by the tornados, which tore tiles off many roofs and uprooted trees.

Tony White, caretaker at one of the closed schools, Guiseley, told BBC News the building's new roof could not cope with the unexpected excess water.

"There's a lake on the second floor and a lot of damage," he said.

In North Yorkshire, fire and rescue crews were called to Harrogate, Summerbridge, Selby, Northallerton and Reeth - all in a two hour period - to deal with flooded premises.

Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/west ... 348038.stm

we also think there is a greater likelihood this year of some very stormy conditions developing.

They got that right! :shock:

 

[Elidorius]

England's warming 'not natural'

BBC News Online, Tuesday 19 September 2006:

Temperatures in central England are about 1C higher than in the 1950s, and humanity's greenhouse gas emissions are the reason, a new study indicates.

Researchers at the Meteorological Office analysed temperature records going back almost 350 years. In 1950, the average temperature was about 9.4C; now it is about 10.4C.

Computer models of climate demonstrate that the warming observed over the past 50 years is extremely unlikely to be part of a natural cycle.

Recent studies show British animals migrating northwards, and spring arriving earlier right across Europe. These are also thought to be signs of temperatures rising in Britain and western Europe, in step with the planet as a whole.

Long run

The Central England Temperature (CET) record dates back to 1659, and is the longest continuous series of temperature measurements made by instruments anywhere in the world.

Currently, measurements are made at Pershore, Rothamsted and Stonyhurst, and then averaged.

Since the 1950s, CET has risen by about 1C - more than the global average, but less than the increase recorded in parts of the world thought to be particularly sensitive to climate disruption such as the Arctic Ocean and the Antarctic Peninsula.

David Karoly (now at the University of Oklahoma) and Peter Stott of the Hadley Centre, part of the UK Met Office, used a recent computer model of climate to work out the chance that this rise was part of a natural cycle.

The probability was, they calculated, less than 5%.

Writing in the journal Atmospheric Science Letters, they conclude: "Hence, the observed annual mean warming trend over the last 50 years is very unlikely to be due to natural internal climate variability alone."

The researchers found that when they introduced into the model the factor of "anthropogenic forcing" - greenhouse gases produced by industry, transport and other human activities - the model reproduced the observed temperatures.

Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/5357606.stm

 

[TinFinger]

i read an interesting this in the daily mail a couple of days ago

it went somethink like since alot of the polar ice is already in the water it currently displaces its own weight
so wont make the sea level rise once its melted(ice in a glass of water wont rise its level once its melted)
the only ice thats a problem is the ice on land most surely halving the problem

and also ive been told that armagedon is upon us once the ice caps melt(below an ice mountain) as this will reveal the gates to hell!!!!!

was this a wind up as ive not read it and dont wish to ever(bible obviously lol)

 

[rynner2]

iit went somethink like since alot of the polar ice is already in the water it currently displaces its own weight
so wont make the sea level rise once its melted(ice in a glass of water wont rise its level once its melted)
the only ice thats a problem is the ice on land most surely halving the problem

It's true only glacial ice on land melting will lead to sea level rise, but that doesn't 'halve' the overall problem.

When sea ice melts, the polar regions lose much of their reflectivity (the ice reflected the sun's heat away), and the sun's heat is now absorbed by the darker ocean. This could lead to runaway global warming, because the more the ice melts, the warmer the Earth gets, so more ice melts... :shock:

And this is what now appears to be happening - the Independent made it their whole front page story a week or two ago.

 

[TinFinger]

This could lead to runaway global warming

and its possible thats this type of weather pattern happens quite often
iifc our current weather pattern has been deemed as unusualy stable in the grand scale of things(ice cores)

im just saying that all the doom and gloom(massive floods) arnt a dead cert as predicted

although its interesting that this seems to coincide with the flood myths(?)

 

[Elidorius]

The BBC weather man said during the weekend (it might have been in the local, south-west, forecast, but he was referring to national statistics) that following July's record-breaking mean temperature, September 2006 was also the hottest September since records began, with a mean temperature 3.2 degrees higher than previously recorded. :shock:

 

[ElishevaBarsabe]

And we're colder

On the central coast of California, USA, we've gone from a mild summer right into winter, skipping fall altogether. Apparently, that's been a trend in many parts of the northern USA. Now, the Mid-West has been told to brace for an extreme winter.

The quiet hurricane season is interesting, too. My gut-level feeling is that "quiet" is going to evolve into "very, very cold" in some places.

Which is not to disagree that global warming is a fact. This chill and global warming are related, somehow (after all, not every location is unusually chilly).

I did see "The Day After Tomorrow," and, as I reach for an extra sweater, I begin to wonder. (Wonder, too, why that movie hasn't shown up on cable TV, yet.)

 

[OneWingedBird]

On the central coast of California, USA, we've gone from a mild summer right into winter, skipping fall altogether. Apparently, that's been a trend in many parts of the northern USA.

I rather thought a similar thing happened in the UK last year, was looking forward to photographing my japanese maple in autumn when the leaves go the most wonderful red/orange colour, but it didn't happen, went from summer to winter so fast that by the time the last of the leaves had turned, half of them had also dropped

Thought i'd drop the farting/belching cows in here, for want of a better place:

Tackling UK's gassy cows problem
By Angus Crawford
BBC News

Number 128 is a jersey cow, she has beautiful brown eyes and cannot resist having a nibble of my microphone.

Cows and bulls can produce 500 litres of methane a day
As she stares at me she is constantly chewing... and burping.

She could be producing as much as 500 litres of methane per day.

There are more than two million more like her across the UK.

They are the UK's biggest single source of methane - a gas 23 times more potent than carbon dioxide when it comes to global warming.

In fact cattle are responsible for about 3% of all Britain's greenhouse gases. Reduce that and experts say you not only make farming greener and more efficient, it could help Britain achieve its commitments under the Kyoto agreement.

Inefficient food

Scientists across the UK are working on ways to tackle the problem.

"Cows don't ruminate anymore," concludes Professor David Beever, an expert on nutrition with feed producer Richard Keenan and Co.

He believes that their food is not chewy enough, so they do not break it down in their mouths before it gets to their rumen. It is inefficient and produces more methane.

Part of his solution is to cut their silage feed to make it longer or chewier - "it's like adjusting the carburettor".

"Instead of perhaps 35 litres of methane per litre of milk, it could be as low as 25 or 20."

Cows may be given garlic to cut down on methane

Elsewhere in labs and farm yards scientists are trying out inoculations, microbes or even extracts of garlic.

"Methane's a short-lived gas in the atmosphere," says Dr Christian Jardine, a senior researcher at the Environmental Change Institute at Oxford University.

"So if we can reduce our methane emissions now, that will allow us to buy time for technologies to come in place to reduce our carbon dioxide emissions."

But what of the government's response - is it targeting a gas that could make big differences, quickly?

Dr Jardine says: "The government doesn't really have any direct policies targeting methane emissions."

The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) disagrees.

"Agriculture has a key role to play in addressing climate change. The government's climate change programme, published in March this year, sets out a range of measures to help agriculture to both adapt to and reduce its impact on the climate," a spokesman said.


Agriculture has a key role to play in addressing climate change
Defra spokesman

"Continuing to improve production efficiency and reduce emissions is a key part of our vision for One Planet Farming."

But others think there should be an even wider, holistic approach.

Agriculturalist Professor Chris Pollock believes farmers, scientists and politicians need to look at agriculture's entire environmental footprint.

"You need to have a common currency that allows scientists to look at benefits in one area and disbenefits in another."

A feed additive which reduces methane, he explains, would be of no use if it has to be transported half way around the world, burning up fossil fuels.

As he puts it: "How much milk yield is a red squirrel worth?"

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6046340.stm