http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/05/jilldando.serbia
When a conspiracy is the simple solution
Lone assassin explanations are seen as the rational alternative to conspiracies. But in the case of Jill Dando, the normal pattern is turned upside down
guardian.co.uk, Comment is Free. Frank Fisher. August 05 2008
Barry George is a weirdo – that's okay, I can say it, as it formed a key part of the successful defence in his retrial for the murder of Jill Dando. Unintelligent, a fantasist, a braggart, something of a sex pest too and not subtle about it – no one seems to have ever denied this. Yet apparently, for eight years, the Metropolitan Police also believed he was something of a criminal mastermind.
Charlie Brooker gleefully and confidently assaults 9/11 "troofers" in his record-breaking Cif thread, but the core arguments against conspiracies in most high-profile cases – 9/11, JFK, Oklahoma City - work against a lone nut theory in the Jill Dando killing, and always did.
The police are playing their usual game right now – hinting they're not considering any other suspects, revealing convictions and suspicions that were not put in front of the jury – suggesting with nods and winks that, regardless of the verdict, they know who did the deed.
Their misplaced confidence was absurd from day one. There is not one chance in a billion that Barry George killed Jill Dando, and the Met must always have known this. I'll focus on just one aspect of the crime, but it's enough to prove the fragility of the overall police case.
From the moment a brass cartridge case that once held the bullet that killed Dando was found, it was certain that whoever killed her was either a gunsmith himself, or had access to specialist weapons-making facilities – and it was a strong possibility that the killer hailed from Eastern Europe. The cartridge, a Remmington .380 casing, had been opened, and propellant removed to reduce the crack of a gunshot – then crimped back onto the slug, a 9mm round, creating a custom-built, low-powered, composite round. An old NKVD trick apparently, dating from Stalin's days. This simple fact instantly ruled out someone like George acting alone. He could not have prepared the ammunition himself, at no stage were the police able to link him to any facilities where he may have been able to do it, they were never able to connect him to a illegal firearms trader and were unable to turn up the weapon – or even suggest what kind of weapon it was, with any plausibility.
Based purely on the ammunition, and the fact that the bullet bore no rifling marks, the police announced that a modified automatic, or reactivated inert automatic, drilled through, must have fired the round. Yet the case carried no extractor marks – the indentations, fairly distinctive for each type of gun, left on the case by the ejector mechanism of an automatic pistol or rifle. That means that it hadn't been ejected, which means it was not fired from an automatic pistol, which means the weapon used cannot have been of the type claimed by police. Rather, this was a custom device, possibly handmade. And this weapon, the police theory had it, would have been built by a man with no access to the necessary machinery, no history of engineering at all, who couldn't even drive and apparently has trouble doing up his buttons.
There are two kinds of weapon that could have fired the shot that killed Jill Dando – both specialist devices, neither of them ever mentioned by the police. The first, a zip gun, is the most basic firearm in current use. A street gang or prison weapon, it's essentially two tubes sliding over each other, with a nail or steel rod welded to the base of one, to strike a cartridge held in place at the bottom of the other. Sometimes spring-loaded and sometimes purely manual, it's a clumsy and awkward weapon, and most street-built examples can only be operated with two hands.
Witnesses described a tall man dressed in dark clothing, perhaps a black suit, carrying a large mobile phone. He, or someone very like him, was placed outside Dando's home, in her street, walking away from her garden immediately after the shooting, along with several other men and the famous blue Range Rover that was once a key target for the police investigation, and was then rapidly forgotten when it didn't fit their theory.
He was carrying a large mobile phone. A gun, the police said – the witnesses must have been mistaken. But what if the witnesses weren't half-blind simpletons the police suggest? What if they saw exactly what they said they saw? What if they saw a man holding this?
Covert handguns disguised as mobile phones, generally firing a .22 or 9mm round, have been found all over Europe – but they all appear to be manufactured in the same place, the former Yugoslavia. You can tell where I'm going with this can't you?
The police theory – the "rational" theory – suggests a man with an IQ of 75 carried out such a killing, alone, and perfectly. It simply isn't credible, and it never was. The only credible theory is a that of a professional assassination, carried out on behalf of either a criminal organisation, angered by Dando's work on Crimewatch, or perhaps on behalf of someone else.
This is the conspiracy theory – and yet it is the simplest option. The only question is who ordered the hit? People point to Crimewatch, but like the rest of the British media, they don't really "do" organised crime. Did Crimewach ever take down a gangland boss? And is it credible to suggest some poor bugger swindling widows out of their savings took revenge from his prison cell? I don't think so. So we turn to the other option.
Chances are every state has people to deal with individuals they want removed. We don't know if our own country does, but with some nations, we know they have assassinated people in the recent past. Countries like, well, Serbia for instance.
Add the fact that callers to the BBC after the killing claimed it on behalf of Serbia, that presenters such as John Humphrys were also threatened because of their perceived support for the Kosovan cause, and the Serbian connection must look credible.
So why did the police focus on Barry George?
Who knows. But I can guess. The Serbian theory posits revenge as the motive. Revenge for Clinton and Blair's illegal Kosovo war, but specifically for the war crime perpetrated by British and US forces in the early hours of April 23 1999, when Nato missiles smashed into the headquarters of Radio and Television Serbia killing 16 broadcasting staff.
We bombed their state broadcaster – claiming it was a legitimate target as it propagandised for their side – and they struck back, so the theory goes. The BBC had presented hours of footage backing wholeheartedly the Nato line that Milosevic was a new Hitler, that "humanitarian intervention" was essential. Dando, no doubt in good faith, broadcast an appeal on behalf of the Kosovan refugees. That's more than enough motive.
More of a motive than police ever suggested for Barry George. But not really a motive anyone in the UK establishment would want to talk up.
Perhaps I'm being cynical – maybe the original police investigation really did think that the Serb theory, even though it fitted the facts, was not credible. But why might that be? Because it was a conspiracy theory? When even positing a conspiracy is enough to bring ridicule, might they actually have jettisoned the idea because of embarrassment?
While it makes sense, as Charlie Brooker suggests, to try to remain close to planet Earth at all times, and not to drift too wildly on the seas of invention, it also makes sense to evaluate fairly all possibilities, especially those that fit the known facts, regardless of how fantastic those possibilities then become.
As the greatest detective of them all once said:
'
When you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains – however improbable – must be the truth.'
Barry George was finally found not guilty of the murder of Jill Dando last week, but the police should have known, nine years ago, that the idea that this man could commit such a breathtaking crime was simply that: impossible.