Human Population Growth & Overpopulation

[Frasier Buddolph]

And you consider that an acceptable long term solution ?
INT21

I consider it the most likely long-term solution.

This problem has been staring us in the face for fifty years, and no governing body (with the possible exception of China, and they have backed away) has shown any will to confront it.

Some populations in the developed world (e.g., Japan) are actually shrinking, but the shrinkage is more than offset by burgeoning growth in poorer countries. The countries driving the growth lack the resources and the political will to effectively address the problem, and NO ONE will accept having a solution imposed from outside. The right to reproduce is as close to untouchable as it gets.

So, no, I am not optimistic that there will be any effective human intervention before we are overtaken by natural events.

 

[Mythopoeika]

Are the well-educated having less kids because of the knowledge they gain, or just because it takes longer before they can afford starting a family?

Probably a bit of both.
Better-educated people are a bit less dependent on benefits, so they don't have access to state handouts for baby-making purposes. And they're not quite wealthy enough to become full time baby-makers, so they end up having fewer kids.

 

[ralfy]

"Limits to Growth was right. New research shows we're nearing collapse"

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ight-new-research-shows-were-nearing-collapse

 

[INT21]

FB,

...The right to reproduce is as close to untouchable as it gets...

So it seems. But this all stems from earlier times when people thought that the world was more or less unlimited. Now we know better. And it also means the right to add another mouth that needs to be fed. Another pile of waste to remove daily, another roof to construct, and another person who, if he/she is to have a happy fulfilled life, who has to have some kind of useful occupation.
Go back not so long ago, say a few hundred years, and look at the things that have limited the population. Maybe limited is the wrong word, because things like all the wars, the disease (Spanish flue, Black Death, Malaria, SmallPox etc) these were mass events that reduced the existing population drastically and quickly.. Now, virtually all the things I mentioned have gone.

Millions of people are being born into a miserable existence. Often a very short brutal existence.

But it needn't be so.

Mythopoeika,

The state benefit handout is somewhat misleading. It costs much more to raise a child than the government pays out. And it leaves people in a kind of psychological trap that seems to generate problems.
It is a sad fact that when you look around it is the 'lower classes' who are the ones with all the kids running around the house. A world of back street heroes and lady Madonnas. Not a nice thing to say, but it is true.
And from these families seems to come the large percentage of social problems. I see it every day as I live on the edge of a big council estate.
So who is to blame in this case ? Is it the man who won't use contraception (again, banned by two major religions) or the woman who is happy to keep on producing kids as long as the 'Fam' Book' keeps paying out.

Are these people simply too dim to see what is happening ?

Yes, that does sound terrible. But what other conclusion can you come to. They all know where the kids come from.



Possibly the connection between higher education and family size plays a part. But this may be due to both partners not wanting their careers to be compromised by having to look after children. And some apparently quite smart people have large families.

Sterilisation is the obvious answer. But in our society it has to be voluntary. Or indeed it does smack of Eugenics.

If it did come down to compulsory sterilisation after, say, the second child. How would it be enforced ?

In the end there will be a program of enforced sterilisation. It will happen in the countries that really won't mind because the population are already controlling the family size; at least the indigenous people are.
And a result of this is that any non indigenous people who object will have to be deported.

And you don't have to watch many news programs or look too far from where you are sitting right now to realise that will be a pretty bloody affair.

Or we all die.

For those who missed it, last night it was announced that the world temperature has risen again for the fourteenth year in a row. Regardless of it's cause, this is leading to a huge displacement of peoples. Most of them have a high birth rate. And they will all be looking for a home; somewhere.

Funny thing. Whilst I do not look forward to death. I accept it's inevitability. And I do not want to life in a world that is incapable of solving this problem mainly because some two thousand year old books say 'it is written'.

INT21

 

[Mythopoeika]

If it did come down to compulsory sterilisation after, say, the second child. How would it be enforced ?

A free 'flu jab' for every adult in the family.

 

[INT21]

I like your thinking.

BREAKING NEWS.

The WHO announced tonight that there has been a tragic mix up with the 10 million flue jabs that have been administered over the last week.

As a result if it feared that everyone who received the jam will not be able to to conceive in the future.

At the moment the authorities do not know how this came about. But an investigation is underway.

The latest batch of the serum is believed to be without problem.

INT21

 

[Mythopoeika]

Yeah. A fait accompli.

 

[JamesWhitehead]

The WHO announced tonight that there has been a tragic mix up with the 10 million flue jabs that have been administered over the last week.

Ah, they're talking about the chimney generation!

everyone who received the jam will not be able to to conceive in the future.

Yes but the jam is only ever yesterday and tomorrow, so we'll muddle through.

 

[Monstrosa]

All those 65+ year olds denied the chance of becoming a parent.

 

[Xanatic*]

The zika virus is a step along the way.

 

[INT21]

To all concerned,

I do agree that a jab will probably work better than a jam. But a spoonful of sugar helps the medicine go down.

Anyway, as there is probably no realistic solution to this problem, I see no point in discussing it further.

The end result is inevitable.

Fortunately I will not be around to share it.

I hear that the meek will inherit the Earth. I believe they will make it unlivable. There is never a barbarian around when you need one.

INT21.

 

[rynner2]

The Anthropocene Epoch has been mentioned several times on this thread, and also on Environmental Issues (mostly by me, it seems!) Here's a new article:

Anthropocene: New dates proposed for the 'Age of Man'
By Rebecca Morelle Science Correspondent, BBC News

The Anthropocene - a new geological time period that marks the "Age of man" - began in 1610, a study suggests.
Scientists believe that the arrival of Europeans in the Americas had an unprecedented impact on the planet, marking the dawn of this new epoch.
The findings are published in the journal Nature.

Others say that the industrial revolution or the first nuclear tests better signal the start of the Anthropocene.
While some believe the exact date for a new epoch can only be determined with the benefit of thousands or even millions of years of hindsight.
An international Anthropocene Working Group is currently reviewing the evidence and will announce its favoured start date next year.

...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-31836233

A new suggested start date:
The Anthropocene epoch: scientists declare dawn of human-influenced age
Experts say human impact on Earth so profound that Holocene must give way to epoch defined by nuclear tests, plastic pollution and domesticated chicken
Damian Carrington
Monday 29 August 2016 13.00 BST

Humanity’s impact on the Earth is now so profound that a new geological epoch – the Anthropocene – needs to be declared, according to an official expert group who presented the recommendation to the International Geological Congress in Cape Town on Monday.

The new epoch should begin about 1950, the experts said, and was likely to be defined by the radioactive elements dispersed across the planet by nuclear bomb tests, although an array of other signals, including plastic pollution, soot from power stations, concrete, and even the bones left by the global proliferation of the domestic chicken were now under consideration.

The current epoch, the Holocene, is the 12,000 years of stable climate since the last ice age during which all human civilisation developed. But the striking acceleration since the mid-20th century of carbon dioxide emissions and sea level rise, the global mass extinction of species, and the transformation of land by deforestation and development mark the end of that slice of geological time, the experts argue. The Earth is so profoundly changed that the Holocene must give way to the Anthropocene.

“The significance of the Anthropocene is that it sets a different trajectory for the Earth system, of which we of course are part,” said Prof Jan Zalasiewicz, a geologist at the University of Leicester and chair of the Working Group on the Anthropocene (WGA), which started work in 2009.
“If our recommendation is accepted, the Anthropocene will have started just a little before I was born,” he said. “We have lived most of our lives in something called the Anthropocene and are just realising the scale and permanence of the change.”

Prof Colin Waters, principal geologist at the British Geological Survey and WGA secretary, said: “Being able to pinpoint an interval of time is saying something about how we have had an incredible impact on the environment of our planet. The concept of the Anthropocene manages to pull all these ideas of environmental change together.”

Prof Chris Rapley, a climate scientist at University College London and former director of the Science Museum in London said: “The Anthropocene marks a new period in which our collective activities dominate the planetary machinery.

“Since the planet is our life support system – we are essentially the crew of a largish spaceship – interference with its functioning at this level and on this scale is highly significant. If you or I were crew on a smaller spacecraft, it would be unthinkable to interfere with the systems that provide us with air, water, fodder and climate control. But the shift into the Anthropocene tells us that we are playing with fire, a potentially reckless mode of behaviour which we are likely to come to regret unless we get a grip on the situation.” Rapley is not part of the WGA.

Martin Rees, the astronomer royal and former president of the Royal Society, said that the dawn of the Anthropocene was a significant moment. “The darkest prognosis for the next millennium is that bio, cyber or environmental catastrophes could foreclose humanity’s immense potential, leaving a depleted biosphere,” he said.


But Lord Rees added that there is also cause for optimism. “Human societies could navigate these threats, achieve a sustainable future, and inaugurate eras of post-human evolution even more marvellous than what’s led to us. The dawn of the Anthropocene epoch would then mark a one-off transformation from a natural world to one where humans jumpstart the transition to electronic (and potentially immortal) entities, that transcend our limitations and eventually spread their influence far beyond the Earth.”

The evidence of humanity’s impact on the planet is overwhelming, but the changes are very recent in geological terms, where an epoch usually spans tens of millions of years. “One criticism of the Anthropocene as geology is that it is very short,” said Zalasiewicz. “Our response is that many of the changes are irreversible.”

etc...

https://www.theguardian.com/environ...s-urge-geological-congress-human-impact-earth

 

[rynner2]

The growth of human population and cities and other infrastrucure is seriously impacting the natural world:
World wildlife 'falls by 58% in 40 years'
By Rebecca Morelle Science Correspondent, BBC News

Global wildlife populations have fallen by 58% since 1970, a report says.
The Living Planet assessment, by the Zoological Society of London (ZSL) and WWF, suggests that if the trend continues that decline could reach two-thirds among vertebrates by 2020.

The figures suggest that animals living in lakes, rivers and wetlands are suffering the biggest losses.
Human activity, including habitat loss, wildlife trade, pollution and climate change contributed to the declines.

Dr Mike Barrett. head of science and policy at WWF, said: "It's pretty clear under 'business as usual' we will see continued declines in these wildlife populations. But I think now we've reached a point where there isn't really any excuse to let this carry on.
"We know what the causes are and we know the scale of the impact that humans are having on nature and on wildlife populations - it really is now down to us to act."
However the methodology of the report has been criticised.

The Living Planet Report is published every two years and aims to provide an assessment of the state of the world's wildlife.
This analysis looked at data collected on 3,700 different species of birds, fish, mammals, amphibians and reptiles - about 6% of the total number of vertebrate species in the world.
The researchers then analysed how the population sizes had changed over time since 1970.

The last report, published in 2014, estimated that the world's wildlife populations had halved over the last 40 years.
This assessment suggests that the trend has continued: since 1970, populations have declined by an average of 58%.

Dr Barrett said some groups of animals had fared worse than others.
"We do see particularly strong declines in the freshwater environment - for freshwater species alone, the decline stands at 81% since 1970. This is related to the way water is used and taken out of fresh water systems, and also the fragmentation of freshwater systems through dam building, for example."

It also highlighted other species, such as African elephants , which have suffered huge declines in recent years with the increase in poaching, and sharks, which are threatened by overfishing.
The researchers conclude that vertebrate populations are declining by an average of 2% each year, and warn that if nothing is done, wildlife populations could fall by 67% (below 1970 levels) by the end of the decade.

Dr Robin Freeman, head of ZSL's Indicators & Assessments Unit, said: "But that's assuming things continue as we expect. If pressures - overexploitation, illegal wildlife trade, for example - increase or worsen, then that trend may be worse.
"But one of the things I think is most important about these stats, these trends are declines in the number of animals in wildlife populations - they are not extinctions. By and large they are not vanishing, and that presents us with an opportunity to do something about it."

etc...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-37775622

 

[Gizmos Mama]

Methinks the Anthropocene Era is going to be the shortest one, by far.

I also have a nagging suspicion that if you were alive before 1980, you and I are the lucky ones who saw the peak of Humanity's existence on this planet.

It seems pretty clear that we long ago surpassed the tipping point in terms of sustainable population, like a roller-coaster that has already crested the top of a long, long upward climb. The cars have already dropped out from beneath us, and for a moment, we were still riding the momentum, hanging in the temporary inertia.

The fall is coming momentarily.

If we don't get a grip on growth, quickly, (like, within 2 generations), and then seriously think about what we need to do to reduce and stabilize our over-all, long term population at a truly sustainable level for all creatures, we are going to face major shortages and social upheaval almost everywhere. One of the glaring upcoming problems is with water scarcity.

Not a very pretty picture, what lies ahead.

(All MHO, of course)

 

[INT21]

Its is never going to be addressed.

Human nature is to breed, breed, breed. And never think about the consequence.

The only nation that even got anywhere near doing anything is China. And they are having problems with it.

If an all powerful single party country can't control the situation, what chance does the liberal West ?

INT21

 

[Elsupremo]

Take the top 2000 cities in population and add up the square miles. You may find that half the worlds population will fit into a relatively very small amount of land. Pollution can be controlled by the government any time they choose. The Isrealites grow food in the dessert. What is this overpopulation thing really about. Perpetrators of economic genicide.

 

[rynner2]

Population growth leads to more cars on the roads, and more lorries to shift goods around. And now the roads can't cope, so new roads and a tunnel are needed...
Press release
New tunnel proposed for Lower Thames crossing: 8 week consultation launches today
From:
Highways England, Department for Transport, and Andrew Jones MP
Part of:
Road network and traffic
First published:
26 January 2016
Proposals for a new multi billion pound road link across the River Thames between Essex and Kent have been announced today.

The new road will unlock massive economic benefits for the region and the whole country, relieve congestion at the existing Dartford Crossing and improve the resilience of the road network by providing a new alternative link across the Thames.

In 2013, two locations were shortlisted for a new bridge or tunnel across the river: one near the existing Dartford Crossing (known as Option A) and the other linking the M2 with the M25 via the A13 (known as Option C), with a possible further link to the M20 (Option C Variant).

Since then, Highways England has been carrying out detailed work with a wide range of stakeholders to assess the shortlisted options and develop possible routes at each location. This evaluation is now complete, and Highways England is recommending a new road crossing at location C through a bored tunnel.

The route of the proposed option
The proposed scheme would run from the end of the M2, crossing the river just east of Gravesend and Tilbury and joining the M25 between junctions 29 and 30. It will be the first new crossing of the Thames east of London since the Queen Elizabeth II bridge opened at Dartford 25 years ago.

A Highways England consultation seeking public views on the proposals starts today and runs until Thursday 24 March.

Roads Minister Andrew Jones said:

Roads are key to ensuring the nation’s prosperity. As part of our long term economic plan, we are making the biggest investment in roads in a generation.

The government is committed to delivering a Lower Thames crossing which will increase capacity and provide better, faster journeys across the Thames.

Once complete it could add over £7 billion to the economy by increasing investment and business opportunities, and create over 5,000 new jobs nationally.

Highways England senior project manager, Martin Potts said:

Deciding where the new crossing should go is a vitally important decision, and we’ve been working hard to identify solutions that strike the best balance between improving journeys, getting value for money and managing environmental impact. Our assessments have shown that Location C provides double the economic benefits of Location A as well as a clear alternative route to the Dartford Crossing, reducing congestion and improving resilience of the road network. And by choosing a tunnel rather than a bridge we can minimise the effects of the new road on the environment.

There are important choices to be made. As well as inviting comments from the public about our recommendations, we have identified three routes for the new road to the north of the river and two routes south of the river. We welcome views on them all.

This consultation is your chance to have your say on a once-in-a-generation, multi billion pound investment that will have wide ranging effects for decades. I encourage anyone who would like to find out more to check out the consultation materials or come and see us at one of the public exhibitions we’ll be hosting.

There will be 24 public exhibitions, held at venues across Kent and Essex. All responses will be taken into consideration before a final decision is made by the Government later this year.

For more information about our proposals (including a video summarising them) and the public exhibitions, and to provide your views you can visit the Lower Thames crossing page or follow @lowerthames on Twitter.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...s-crossing-8-week-consultation-launches-today

Lower Thames Crossing
The preferred route for a new Lower Thames Crossing has been announced.
Video, etc:

http://www.itv.com/news/anglia/story/2017-04-12/lower-thames-crossing/

Also, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-39575467

 

[blessmycottonsocks]

Take the top 2000 cities in population and add up the square miles. You may find that half the worlds population will fit into a relatively very small amount of land. Pollution can be controlled by the government any time they choose. The Isrealites grow food in the dessert. What is this overpopulation thing really about. Perpetrators of economic genicide.

You seem to have missed the point of cities. They are dense concentrations of people, which in no way are representative of how many people can live in a given space. That is because cities need far larger expanses of agricultural land to feed their populations.
So any claims that "half the worlds population will fit into a relatively very small amount of land" may be argued from a mathematical point of view, but in reality are nonsensical.
The U.K's population is clearly unsustainable - we cannot feed ourselves as it is. Concreting over yet more agricultural land and essential flood plains is a recipe for disaster.

 

[INT21]

Anyone can grow food in a desert.

You just need a lot of water and a lot of chemicals (nutrients).

By using Israel you have picked the worst possible example.

No one want s to face up to the population problem.

..."half the worlds population will fit into a relatively very small amount of land"...

Of course you can. Just build lots of tower blocks; easy.

Then work out how to deal with the social problems that arise.

There are a lot of people out there that are too dumb to realise that the Earth is finite.

Religious 'get out there and breed' attitudes don't help.

INT21

 

[Mythopoeika]

Of course you can. Just build lots of tower blocks; easy.

Then work out how to deal with the social problems that arise.

And the sewage / waste problems.

 

[INT21]

....And the sewage / waste problems...

And all the rest.

There is a huge blind spot when it comes to population.

The last thing you want is a large population with time on their hands and no prospects.

There is a girl in my extended family who is, to be kind, 'simple'.

She is now seventeen. when she was fifteen she became pregnant. But, because of her 'vulnerability' it was decided by the authorities that she wasn't capable of looking after the baby.
The baby, a girl, was taken in by another family member who, in many ways, has forfeit her own future to do this.

Three week after the birth, she was pregnant again. Again she gave birth to a little girl, and again a family member took on the responsibility for the child. After all, she is one of us and everyone wanted to be able to keep an eye on her well being. We didn't want her to just disappear and to forever be wondering if she was having a good life.

The girl in question is now pregnant again.

This time we can't help.

The man she is with is also of very low intelligence.

SO, the question is, why wasn't she sterilized after the first one ?

Well, you can't just do that. Human rights and all that bull.

And that is just a single small example of the problem that will overtake the world. It is inevitable.

INT21

 

[Mythopoeika]

Yes. Human rights will paradoxically sink us all in the end.

 

[Mungoman]

Yes. Human rights will paradoxically sink us all in the end.

Not if each case were judged on its merits. Which for some reason, in this world of common unsense, is completely ignored.

Commonsense tells us that if your vehicles tyres are wearing, toe in, the problem is not with your tyres.

 

[INT21]

Mungoman,

No doubt an AI system would say ' check y'r ball joints, mate'.

But what do you think an AI would decide was a proper answer to too many people ?

INT21

 

[rynner2]

I'm watching Man Made Planet on Ch4. As populations grow, so do cities, and the need for energy and resources. All this can be monitored from space. The programme has powerful images from around the world, and from above the world.
Man Made Planet: Earth from Space

About the programme
Using images of Earth taken from space across the last 45 years and stunning time-lapse sequences, astronauts reveal how humanity is transforming the world - for better and worse
First shown: 22 Apr 2017

http://www.channel4.com/programmes/man-made-planet-earth-from-space

It should soon be available on 4oD.

(Lots of overlap with Environmental Issues, the March of Technology, etc, but all these changes can be traced back to Population Growth, hence I'm posting this here.)

 

[INT21]

Rynner2,

Yet populationn growth should be the easiest thing to fix.

Woman has second baby. While still in hospital she is sterilized. Father also.

'whoa there' I hear you all cry 'What about his/her God given right to procreate ?

To which the answer is 'are you blind, mad or both ?'.

Being an, atheist the idea of a God of any kind is to me a very bad joke played upon the people. But one that can't imbue basic common sense to 'His' creations is ludicrous.

It will never be fixed.

We will go on relying upon mass exterminations in places like Syria and Sudan.

A few week back, on the BBC, I watched an interview with a couple from (I think) Afghanistan.

It seems they had taken three years to make the rip to Italy. They had two children, the oldest was two. You do the maths.

Why folk can't look at what is going on in the world and see where it is all going is one of the great mysteries of the Universe. it is all so blindingly obvious.

INT21

 

[rynner2]

Prog now available:
http://www.channel4.com/programmes/man-made-planet-earth-from-space/on-demand/64826-001

 

[Mungoman]

Mungoman,

No doubt an AI system would say ' check y'r ball joints, mate'.

But what do you think an AI would decide was a proper answer to too many people ?

INT21

The three laws of robotics comes to mind INT, specifically the first.

They'd have to restrict childbirth straight away to prevent humans coming to harm I reckon. That would ethically be the only answer to our present pressing problem.

I was born into a Christian family, and like what Jesus wanted for his community and so, follow my own form of religious belief but there was a certain amount of political background along with family connections to it all, that makes me realise that there was more to the story of Jesus than the church wants to be generally known.

Breeding to increase the size of your tribe must go hand in hand with you territory, otherwise it's just an excuse to call for Lebensraum, therefore requiring the inevitable domination of the weaker in numbers tribe.

We've gone far beyond that, reason tells me.

 

[Mythopoeika]

The three laws of robotics comes to mind INT, specifically the first.

They'd have to restrict childbirth straight away to prevent humans coming to harm I reckon. That would ethically be the only answer to our present pressing problem.

I was born into a Christian family, and like what Jesus wanted for his community and so, follow my own form of religious belief but there was a certain amount of political background along with family connections to it all, that makes me realise that there was more to the story of Jesus than the church wants to be generally known.

Breeding to increase the size of your tribe must go hand in hand with you territory, otherwise it's just an excuse to call for Lebensraum, therefore requiring the inevitable domination of the weaker in numbers tribe.

We've gone far beyond that, reason tells me.

Yes, the original commandment to go forth and multiply is now no longer relevant.

 

[INT21]

Mungoman,

...We've gone far beyond that, reason tells me...

Your reason is spot on.

INT21