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Human Population Growth & Overpopulation

I hope that the transition from fossil fuel to renewables is like the transition from whale oil to fossil fuels i.e. unthinkable until it was done.

and also, on a lesser scale, the UK shift from Town Gas to Natural Gas...
 
Population should start to decline between 2050 and 2080 --we'll see if we can make it that long. My bet is probably not or not well.

I think you're spot-on. There is a chance that the current birth-rate (TFRs - Total Fertility Rates) may drop off even more sharply than anticipated. In the short term, there will be a massive swell in global population due to the 1950-1980 boom and the main concern will be resources and caring for a elder-heavy population pyramid, but after that...

It's a bit of a pet subject of mine and If I may bore one, some or all of you with my previous contributions from thread https://forums.forteana.org/index.php?threads/proactive-human-population-reduction.27083

Yep. Lots of people (but maybe not as many as might be thought) need to step down their relentless wasteful consumption. We don't need to return to mediaeval levels, but something akin to a Costa Rican, or south Indian, median standard of living.

People used to laugh at me 25 years ago for using a home-made fabric shopping bag, but maybe I was just ahead of the game! I don't know if it's just me but seeing stuff like the overblown luxury of Dubai, or the pointlessness of Formula 1 racing (using fossil fuels), or sandwiches sold in plastic boxes just makes me feel ill and guilty on their behalf.

The world's population is forecast to stabilise at around 10-13 billion within the next 100 years, then gradually fall. The main 'boom' in world population currently taking place is down to improved healthcare and not extra or multiple births [ie., folks are sticking around a lot longer] The global average birthrate per woman is almost down to 2 (replacement level), and then predicted to fall further. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate for the figures

Some nations are already seeing marked birthrate decrease (eg., Italy, Japan, Korea to name a few).

As education and information spreads, family sizes fall and there's some room for optimism here. The main issues facing us all in the 'first world' are how to care for elderly people compassionately when they are in the majority (Japan is already facing this demographic conundrum: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aging_of_Japan ) AND how to suppress the model of a constantly expanding economy and shift it into something much less wasteful and damaging.

It's not impossible that a pandemic will get some of us, leaving only the fittest, but the predictions of doom are a bit overblown. Each one of us that turns their back on rampant consumerism and waste is doing their bit, however small it may seem. We have that power! If the billionaire class wishes to zoom off to another planet and consume that, too, then let them.

Yes - when contraception and education is widely available, family sizes do tend to fall and even if one woman has 4 or 5 children there are others who have none. That's why the overall birth rate vs. overall death rate is important here, not individual family size.

However due to the population momentum effect and the tempo effect, these changes are only seen in generations, or centuries, and not decades. It's going to get a bit hairy around 2050 if consumption and environmental habits don't change!

An interesting article here about the various stages of demographic transition: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition Most of the 'first world' is already in stage 4 - declining populations, catching up fast is China & India with most of Asia and southern Americas already in stage 3. To quote Hans Rosling: Don't Panic!



The point is, much of the world has already got to, or near the magic figure of 2.1, virtually all of the developed world already has a fertility rate of 2 or below. Beliefs or not! Even The Philippines, staunchly Catholic and with little access to contraception currently has a rate of 2.92 (2016, source: World Bank) compared to 1950-55's 7.4 (source: UN); roughly about 50 years behind the UK's own fertility rate drop in the 60's.

The main issue is resource use and consumption, not birthrates or family size. It's going to take a few more generations for the full effect of the 1950-1980 boom to pan out - the population momentum effect - but if we survive as a species we will then gradually become less numerous.

Individual countries will feel overcrowded due to immigration, and the demographics of the world are going to change even more (more people from the continent of Africa, as opposed to Asia now), but if we manage not to nuke or pollute ourselves to death there is great hope for the future. We'll just be browner, that's all.
 
I think you are being very optimistic, unrealistically so.
 
I think you are being very optimistic, unrealistically so.

To whom are you replying? If it was me then we are both entitled to our opinions :)

Indeed, as we are in the 'new science' forum then maybe this article from New Scientist (2016) is worth flagging up https://www.newscientist.com/articl...6-the-population-bomb-did-go-off-but-were-ok/ It's behind a paywall but the intro gives a flavour of future population predictions:

"Could the population bomb be about to go off in the most unexpected way? Rather than a Malthusian meltdown, could we instead be on the verge of a demographic implosion?

To find out how and why, go to Japan, where a recent survey found that people are giving up on sex. Despite a life expectancy of 85 and rising, the number of Japanese is falling thanks to a fertility rate of just 1.4 children per woman, and a reported epidemic of virginity. The population, it seems, are too busy (and too shy) to procreate.

It’s catching. Half the world’s nations have fertility rates below the replacement level of just over two children per woman. Countries across Europe and the Far East are teetering on a demographic cliff, with rates below 1.5. On recent trends, Germany and Italy could see their populations halve within the next 60 years.

The world has hit peak child, says Hans Rosling at the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm, Sweden. Peak person cannot be far behind.

For now, the world’s population continues to rise. From today’s 7.4 billion people, we might reach 9 billion or so, mostly because of high fertility in Africa. The UN predicts a continuing upward trend, with population reaching around 11.2 billion in 2100. But this seems unlikely. After hitting the demographic doldrums, no country yet has seen its fertility recover. Many demographers expect a global crash to be under way by 2076.
"

Looking at the evidence we have, and the trends we see now I don't think we're in for a mass self-extinction just yet.
 
To whom are you replying? If it was me then we are both entitled to our opinions :)



.

Roslin, by the way, dies two years ago. He was a very entertaining presenter of statistics.

And of course you are entitled to your opinions and views. As am I.

[Bijou snippette by Frides with agreement from author.]

INT21.
 
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I think you're spot-on. There is a chance that the current birth-rate (TFRs - Total Fertility Rates) may drop off even more sharply than anticipated. In the short term, there will be a massive swell in global population due to the 1950-1980 boom and the main concern will be resources and caring for a elder-heavy population pyramid, but after that...

It's a bit of a pet subject of mine and If I may bore one, some or all of you with my previous contributions from thread https://forums.forteana.org/index.php?threads/proactive-human-population-reduction.27083








Individual countries will feel overcrowded due to immigration, and the demographics of the world are going to change even more (more people from the continent of Africa, as opposed to Asia now), but if we manage not to nuke or pollute ourselves to death there is great hope for the future. We'll just be browner, that's all.
Thanks for those great posts, AnonyJoolz! I will take a look at that link to your past posts, too.
 
Thanks for those great posts, AnonyJoolz! I will take a look at that link to your past posts, too.


hear hear! one of the privileges of this place is seeing a coherent series of writing from someone with expertise in a particular area. I've enjoyed this in UFOs, Esoterica and CryptoZoo very recently :)
 
Just been watching the 07:00 news, on which the flooding of parts of Yorkshire featured heavily.
Catastrophic floods seem to hit the UK pretty well every year.
Thing I noticed about the Fishlake floods was that most of the inundated houses looked like new or recent builds.
Is this another example of unwisely concreting over natural flood-plains in order to create housing for an increasingly unsustainable population level?
 
Thing I noticed about the Fishlake floods was that most of the inundated houses looked like new or recent builds.
Is this another example of unwisely concreting over natural flood-plains in order to create housing for an increasingly unsustainable population level?
It may be. There needs to be a rule that forces developers to add emergency drainage to the groundwork design.
 
Just been watching the 07:00 news, on which the flooding of parts of Yorkshire featured heavily.
Catastrophic floods seem to hit the UK pretty well every year.
Thing I noticed about the Fishlake floods was that most of the inundated houses looked like new or recent builds.
Is this another example of unwisely concreting over natural flood-plains in order to create housing for an increasingly unsustainable population level?

To some extent. People like to build on flood plains as they are flat, there's also the issue that some of the places you are seeing flooded in the UK and elsewhere, are places that until recently, didn't flood, even if they were potentially risky, so people may have thought these places were OK. Not that the developers give much of a shit.
 
If those hippies had made war, not love then we wouldn't be in this mess.
 
If those hippies had made war, not love then we wouldn't be in this mess.
War doesn't keep population down for long. It's ineffective as a solution to world population rise.
 
Indeed, which is why they need to be forced to give one.

Possibly one way to make the afor mentioned shit be given is for the insurance companies to inform the developers that they will not in any way provide insurance for house built in places with a known flood risk. And they will direct the owners to the developers for any compensations claims.
 
Possibly one way to make the afor mentioned shit be given is for the insurance companies to inform the developers that they will not in any way provide insurance for house built in places with a known flood risk. And they will direct the owners to the developers for any compensations claims.

That will never happen INT. The amount of premium Underwriters charge for flood cover in a flood risk area is astronomical.

Some years back I was looking into buying a property, in which a tributary of the river Colne ran through the bottom of the back garden. The amount of premium I was quoted by nearly all of the insurers I approached for a quote ran into the thousands. One insurer wanted nearly £11,000 a year just for flood cover. That was more the annual pay back for the mortgage.

Those bloody Underwriters are criminals.

Guess what I do for a living BTW..? ;)
 
The amount of premium Underwriters charge for flood cover in a flood risk area is astronomical.

Some years back I was looking into buying a property, in which a tributary of the river Colne ran through the bottom of the back garden. The amount of premium I was quoted by nearly all of the insurers I approached for a quote ran into the thousands. One insurer wanted nearly £11,000 a year just for flood cover.

A town called Fishlake has flooded. We are required to express surprise.

maximus otter
 
Fertility rates in most countries are far below replacement. We will just have to accept that the population will decline without immigration. On the other hand Africa is still steadily growing in population, and they will have the only youthful population left in the world by 2100.
 
We could start by culling farmers. Just an idea.
Genius, Ramon! Cull farmers, create a massive food shortage, everybody but the cannibals dies of starvation.
 
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