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Psi: Who Decides What "Science" Thinks?

True. But one can't use just one pair of subjects. Equally one 'reciever' person showing high scores doesn't prove there is ESP. Sample size matters. That's the difficulty with one person showing ESP like behaviour. In a population of 8 billion, there are always people who consistently guess right and pick numbers that come up. Law of averages as it were.

In my hypothetical experiment, I'd want a large sample of 'senders' and 'receivers' and I'd expect some pairs to do better than chance, because they just do. The data analysis then shows the possibility of this being a chance result (or not).

(There are also potential issues with the 'randomness' of random number generators and random numbers picked by people, which aren't really random).

For the sake of argument, if I got (say) five pairs (out of 100) who perform better than chance, I could run a second trial with just those pairs, but more 'data runs' to see if an effect persisted. Or, better, would be to re-run the whole thing with the same 100 'pairs' and see if the same 'pairs' kept scoring above chance and analyse the odds of that. Especially if I didn't tell the subjects what they got last time.
Coal, are you a researcher or statistician?
How much money do you you think it would cost to do this research properly?
Have you thought about raising money for it through Patreon (or similar)?
 
Coal, are you a researcher or statistician?
How much money do you you think it would cost to do this research properly?
Have you thought about raising money for it through Patreon (or similar)?
I would expect you'll need a few hundreds to hire EMC chambers for 'out of hours' use. You typically need to bribe people to be subject,s I'd have no problem with newspaper advertising and paying (say) for the participation with an hours money at minimum wage. Personally I'd want as many subject as I could get.

You might be able to do the number sequence and with Arduino's and a suitable alphanumeric display. I'd want to program those myself or peer-review the code for them. Let's say four (two spares). You'll need at least two people as experimenters, just for safety and so on. One of whom would have to watch (via camera) the 'transmitter'. EMC chamber have those as standard.


The 'watcher' would have to be out of sight of the "receiver".

I'd have thought you might get away with £3000, £!K for renting the facilities, £1K for paying subjects (say) .

A coupla hundred for Arduinos and hardware. Even at £5 a subject, that's only 100 tests, although you could reverse the roles after (say) 2-300 numbers.

You need to put together a questionnaire for the subjects for their background data, age, gender etc.

You might want a 'security' metal detector for searching subjects as they enter the experimental premises. Provide lockers for valuables (say).

My basic strategy is to remove any other communication method that might allow information to get from 'transmitter' to 'receiver' and block EMC (radio). Hence the chamber which stops dead sound, radio and sight.

Then you just look at each pairs of subjects' "receiver" numbers and compare to the randomly generated "transmitter" numbers. Both strings stored on a local thumb drives, swapped out after every run.

It'd be nice to expand the subject pool and ask for pairs of people known and even (in the end) announce the goal and see how many turn up to show their skills.
 
Hmmm. I suspect it would cost rather more than that to do an extended study.
You'd ideally want to do thousands of tests rather than just 100, because of the possibility that real PSI abilities are extremely rare. Finding an authentic test subject would be like finding a unicorn.
 
Hmmm. I suspect it would cost rather more than that to do an extended study.
You'd ideally want to do thousands of tests rather than just 100, because of the possibility that real PSI abilities are extremely rare. Finding an authentic test subject would be like finding a unicorn.
Yes there's a possibility it's just a very rare thing - but there's a level at which 'rare' and 'an instance statistically likely in a very large sample size' become indistinguishable.

But throwing a set of 'tests' open to all comers would yield a few who were sure of themselves. Some of them might even take part once they've seen the set-up.
 
Trouble being, that 'science' and the 'scientific method' are often confused. 'Science' has become a kind of pop term for 'established thinking' and is generally used in a negative way as in 'Science doesn't know everything' (Science knows that, it why we do experiments).

As ever prevailing culture and views are the issue (not 'science'), and when most scientific research is done at least in part by people paid by either "interested industry" or via research grants, it tends to focus on the request of the piper - some might say, this inevitably biases the chances of getting the "right" result. It's fair to say that humans tend to stick with what they know and learn in the first 20-30 years and very few stay open minded after that, even scientists. The great ones (Feynman for example) kept being curious and open minded long after many other would have stopped.

Given the type of thing that might prove the existence of (say) ESP can be very simply tested, I wonder why someone hasn't just done that? Stick one person ('transmitter') in an EMC chamber (you can probably rent those cheap during the night) with the door closed (making sure there is air ingress to avoid the 'DARK IN HERE ISN'T IT?@ thing) and only a camera for observation (EMC chambers have those) and give them a (battery powered) box with a random number generator that puts up a two digit number every 10 seconds, so 0-99.

[Previously having check the sync. The boxes can be started together outside the chamber and then separated.]

The 'observer' has a similar box, with just a timer, an indicator and using a key pad type in the number he/she think is being 'transmitted', which is stored locally in (say) a pen-drive. Ideally in another room.

"Transmitter" searched (metal detector), receiver searched (same metal detector). Run 1,000 times per subject (I might allow tea breaks and potty breaks). Repeat 10 or 20 times.

For less than £10K with a nearby university, you could nail that.

Job done.

I don't say ESP/PSI doesn't exist, it's wise to not state anything like this with certainly, only that proving it's existence to a decent degree of probability would be very straightforward, and if that is the case, why hasn't someone done it, allowed peer review of the set up and independent observers, then published the paper in a respectable journal?

P.S. Invite people who think they have ESP to take part. My rules, stick with metal detector searches and I'll personally check both boxes before and after the experimenter. Ditto the metal detectors. And the camera.

PPS I kept a small paper four vane spinner balanced on a needle point under an airtight bowl for 8 months at uni. No-one ever moved it. And the two sides facing the window had a couple of pencil dots on them...for good luck :D
Trouble being, that 'science' and the 'scientific method' are often confused. 'Science' has become a kind of pop term for 'established thinking' and is generally used in a negative way as in 'Science doesn't know everything' (Science knows that, it why we do experiments).

As ever prevailing culture and views are the issue (not 'science'), and when most scientific research is done at least in part by people paid by either "interested industry" or via research grants, it tends to focus on the request of the piper - some might say, this inevitably biases the chances of getting the "right" result. It's fair to say that humans tend to stick with what they know and learn in the first 20-30 years and very few stay open minded after that, even scientists. The great ones (Feynman for example) kept being curious and open minded long after many other would have stopped.

Given the type of thing that might prove the existence of (say) ESP can be very simply tested, I wonder why someone hasn't just done that? Stick one person ('transmitter') in an EMC chamber (you can probably rent those cheap during the night) with the door closed (making sure there is air ingress to avoid the 'DARK IN HERE ISN'T IT?@ thing) and only a camera for observation (EMC chambers have those) and give them a (battery powered) box with a random number generator that puts up a two digit number every 10 seconds, so 0-99.

[Previously having check the sync. The boxes can be started together outside the chamber and then separated.]

The 'observer' has a similar box, with just a timer, an indicator and using a key pad type in the number he/she think is being 'transmitted', which is stored locally in (say) a pen-drive. Ideally in another room.

"Transmitter" searched (metal detector), receiver searched (same metal detector). Run 1,000 times per subject (I might allow tea breaks and potty breaks). Repeat 10 or 20 times.

For less than £10K with a nearby university, you could nail that.

Job done.

I don't say ESP/PSI doesn't exist, it's wise to not state anything like this with certainly, only that proving it's existence to a decent degree of probability would be very straightforward, and if that is the case, why hasn't someone done it, allowed peer review of the set up and independent observers, then published the paper in a respectable journal?

P.S. Invite people who think they have ESP to take part. My rules, stick with metal detector searches and I'll personally check both boxes before and after the experimenter. Ditto the metal detectors. And the camera.

PPS I kept a small paper four vane spinner balanced on a needle point under an airtight bowl for 8 months at uni. No-one ever moved it. And the two sides facing the window had a couple of pencil dots on them...for good luck :D
 
Trouble being, that 'science' and the 'scientific method' are often confused. 'Science' has become a kind of pop term for 'established thinking' and is generally used in a negative way as in 'Science doesn't know everything' (Science knows that, it why we do experiments).

As ever prevailing culture and views are the issue (not 'science'), and when most scientific research is done at least in part by people paid by either "interested industry" or via research grants, it tends to focus on the request of the piper - some might say, this inevitably biases the chances of getting the "right" result. It's fair to say that humans tend to stick with what they know and learn in the first 20-30 years and very few stay open minded after that, even scientists. The great ones (Feynman for example) kept being curious and open minded long after many other would have stopped.

Given the type of thing that might prove the existence of (say) ESP can be very simply tested, I wonder why someone hasn't just done that? Stick one person ('transmitter') in an EMC chamber (you can probably rent those cheap during the night) with the door closed (making sure there is air ingress to avoid the 'DARK IN HERE ISN'T IT?@ thing) and only a camera for observation (EMC chambers have those) and give them a (battery powered) box with a random number generator that puts up a two digit number every 10 seconds, so 0-99.

[Previously having check the sync. The boxes can be started together outside the chamber and then separated.]

The 'observer' has a similar box, with just a timer, an indicator and using a key pad type in the number he/she think is being 'transmitted', which is stored locally in (say) a pen-drive. Ideally in another room.

"Transmitter" searched (metal detector), receiver searched (same metal detector). Run 1,000 times per subject (I might allow tea breaks and potty breaks). Repeat 10 or 20 times.

For less than £10K with a nearby university, you could nail that.

Job done.

I don't say ESP/PSI doesn't exist, it's wise to not state anything like this with certainly, only that proving it's existence to a decent degree of probability would be very straightforward, and if that is the case, why hasn't someone done it, allowed peer review of the set up and independent observers, then published the paper in a respectable journal?

P.S. Invite people who think they have ESP to take part. My rules, stick with metal detector searches and I'll personally check both boxes before and after the experimenter. Ditto the metal detectors. And the camera.

PPS I kept a small paper four vane spinner balanced on a needle point under an airtight bowl for 8 months at uni. No-one ever moved it. And the two sides facing the window had a couple of pencil dots on them...for good luck :D
 
Coal
Trouble being, that 'science' and the 'scientific method' are often confused. 'Science' has become a kind of pop term for 'established thinking' and is generally used in a negative way as in 'Science doesn't know everything' (Science knows that, it why we do experiments).

As ever prevailing culture and views are the issue (not 'science'), and when most scientific research is done at least in part by people paid by either "interested industry" or via research grants, it tends to focus on the request of the piper - some might say, this inevitably biases the chances of getting the "right" result. It's fair to say that humans tend to stick with what they know and learn in the first 20-30 years and very few stay open minded after that, even scientists. The great ones (Feynman for example) kept being curious and open minded long after many other would have stopped.

Given the type of thing that might prove the existence of (say) ESP can be very simply tested, I wonder why someone hasn't just done that? Stick one person ('transmitter') in an EMC chamber (you can probably rent those cheap during the night) with the door closed (making sure there is air ingress to avoid the 'DARK IN HERE ISN'T IT?@ thing) and only a camera for observation (EMC chambers have those) and give them a (battery powered) box with a random number generator that puts up a two digit number every 10 seconds, so 0-99.

[Previously having check the sync. The boxes can be started together outside the chamber and then separated.]

The 'observer' has a similar box, with just a timer, an indicator and using a key pad type in the number he/she think is being 'transmitted', which is stored locally in (say) a pen-drive. Ideally in another room.

"Transmitter" searched (metal detector), receiver searched (same metal detector). Run 1,000 times per subject (I might allow tea breaks and potty breaks). Repeat 10 or 20 times.

For less than £10K with a nearby university, you could nail that.

Job done.

I don't say ESP/PSI doesn't exist, it's wise to not state anything like this with certainly, only that proving it's existence to a decent degree of probability would be very straightforward, and if that is the case, why hasn't someone done it, allowed peer review of the set up and independent observers, then published the paper in a respectable journal?

P.S. Invite people who think they have ESP to take part. My rules, stick with metal detector searches and I'll personally check both boxes before and after the experimenter. Ditto the metal detectors. And the camera.

PPS I kept a small paper four vane spinner balanced on a needle point under an airtight bowl for 8 months at uni. No-one ever moved it. And the two sides facing the window had a couple of pencil dots on them...for good luck :D
Trouble being, that 'science' and the 'scientific method' are often confused. 'Science' has become a kind of pop term for 'established thinking' and is generally used in a negative way as in 'Science doesn't know everything' (Science knows that, it why we do experiments).

As ever prevailing culture and views are the issue (not 'science'), and when most scientific research is done at least in part by people paid by either "interested industry" or via research grants, it tends to focus on the request of the piper - some might say, this inevitably biases the chances of getting the "right" result. It's fair to say that humans tend to stick with what they know and learn in the first 20-30 years and very few stay open minded after that, even scientists. The great ones (Feynman for example) kept being curious and open minded long after many other would have stopped.

Given the type of thing that might prove the existence of (say) ESP can be very simply tested, I wonder why someone hasn't just done that? Stick one person ('transmitter') in an EMC chamber (you can probably rent those cheap during the night) with the door closed (making sure there is air ingress to avoid the 'DARK IN HERE ISN'T IT?@ thing) and only a camera for observation (EMC chambers have those) and give them a (battery powered) box with a random number generator that puts up a two digit number every 10 seconds, so 0-99.

[Previously having check the sync. The boxes can be started together outside the chamber and then separated.]

The 'observer' has a similar box, with just a timer, an indicator and using a key pad type in the number he/she think is being 'transmitted', which is stored locally in (say) a pen-drive. Ideally in another room.

"Transmitter" searched (metal detector), receiver searched (same metal detector). Run 1,000 times per subject (I might allow tea breaks and potty breaks). Repeat 10 or 20 times.

For less than £10K with a nearby university, you could nail that.

Job done.

I don't say ESP/PSI doesn't exist, it's wise to not state anything like this with certainly, only that proving it's existence to a decent degree of probability would be very straightforward, and if that is the case, why hasn't someone done it, allowed peer review of the set up and independent observers, then published the paper in a respectable journal?

P.S. Invite people who think they have ESP to take part. My rules, stick with metal detector searches and I'll personally check both boxes before and after the experimenter. Ditto the metal detectors. And the camera.

PPS I kept a small paper four vane spinner balanced on a needle point under an airtight bowl for 8 months at uni. No-one ever moved it. And the two sides facing the window had a couple of pencil dots on them...for good luck :D

Coal, I don't think that you will find this as straightforward as you imagine. I hesitate to say, but I fear that you are destined to fail in your efforts. There is nothing simple about observing Paranormal Activity (P.A) The problem is that (P.A) exists within another dimension.
We and the experiments that scientists perform are rooted within our own dimension. In order to observe P.A one has to be within the same dimension as the activity. This is a problem that is always overlooked. In fact, I would suggest that the adoption of a scientific approach to these matters is, actually, making things more difficult. We are distancing ourselves from the P.A, which does not perform to the will or wishes of those observing.
Well, not 'normally', anyway.
An unscientific approach is much more likely to succeed. Unfortunately, that is likely to result in ambiguity.
SC
 
Coal
Coal, I don't think that you will find this as straightforward as you imagine. I hesitate to say, but I fear that you are destined to fail in your efforts. There is nothing simple about observing Paranormal Activity (P.A) The problem is that (P.A) exists within another dimension.
We and the experiments that scientists perform are rooted within our own dimension. In order to observe P.A one has to be within the same dimension as the activity. This is a problem that is always overlooked. In fact, I would suggest that the adoption of a scientific approach to these matters is, actually, making things more difficult. We are distancing ourselves from the P.A, which does not perform to the will or wishes of those observing.
Well, not 'normally', anyway.
An unscientific approach is much more likely to succeed. Unfortunately, that is likely to result in ambiguity.
SC
Which other dimension would this be exactly?
 
Which other dimension would this be exactly?

That would be the dimension in which the activity is happening.
The reason that people observe P.A is because they have been caught within a 'dimensional bubble' (D.B).SC
 
That would be the dimension in which the activity is happening.
The reason that people observe P.A is because they have been caught within a 'dimensional bubble' (D.B).SC
Ah I see. So your contention is that there is a dimension (unspecified) where the PA activity is happening, So, presumably people with the gift have access to this dimension?
 
Ah I see. So your contention is that there is a dimension (unspecified) where the PA activity is happening, So, presumably people with the gift have access to this dimension?
Exactly. If you can observe it (A), then you must be within the same dimension. People with the 'gift' (B) as you say, (and if they are to be believed) must have the ability to enter this other dimension at will; or, are able to create their own 'dimensional bubble.' This, as far as I know, is the only way to either (A) Observe P.A. (B) Effect change within our own dimension. If it were not so, then the dimension we live in would be Chaos.
 
Exactly. If you can observe it (A), then you must be within the same dimension. People with the 'gift' (B) as you say, (and if they are to be believed) must have the ability to enter this other dimension at will; or, are able to create their own 'dimensional bubble.' This, as far as I know, is the only way to either (A) Observe P.A. (B) Effect change within our own dimension. If it were not so, then the dimension we live in would be Chaos.
So..if my experiment (which as I stated was to 'disprove' ESP), used people that could enter 'dimensional bubble' it would work right?
 
So..if my experiment (which as I stated was to 'disprove' ESP), used people that could enter 'dimensional bubble' it would work right?

I'm not sure what you mean by 'it would work.' If you accept my theory that P.A happens within another dimension, then; you cannot 'normally' observe it, anyway. Therefore; all you will prove is the status quo. People who claim to have psychic abilities have failed miserably when it comes to being subject to 'scientific' tests. All tests of this nature try to eliminate randomness. As randomness is part of our dimension, then they (the tests) are, in effect, actually trying to effect change. So, we have a paradox. I would say that the very jnception of a scientific test, makes it difficult to prove one way or another as to whether P.A exists. This is because the test itself reinforces our presence within our own dimension. Therefore, I believe that your proposed test cannot succeed. Don't get me wrong, I would love to hear of a test that proves P.A, yet I cannot see how that could happen. I remain convinced that any test which tries to prove the opposite (disprove P.A) is, likewise, destined to fail.
 
The problem is still that you are trying to prove a negative, something that is difficult in any scientific field. Besides, it doesn't feel like the world is lacking in resultless psi experiments.
 
I have not read through this topic TBH but am just wondering about Helmut Schmidt's experiment into PSI. Has his research ever been replicated or is it something that proved to be an anomaly. Surely if his research was proved it would have been one of the most important scientific discoveries ever. The silence makes me think there's nowt to it (or a conspiracy!).
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Of_Miracles

Here Hume says, basically, that impossible events cannot occur.

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The SAIC Experiments



https://www.ics.uci.edu/~jutts/air.pdf

Here Utts says, basically, that the methodology of the experiments in question is sound.





http://www.ics.uci.edu/~jutts/hyman.html

Here Hyman says, basically, that while no flaw in the methodology of the experiments in question can be found, the possibility of the existence of some as of yet undiscoverable methodological flaw can never be completely eliminated.
 
http://www.ics.uci.edu/~jutts/hyman.html

Here Hyman says, basically, that while no flaw in the methodology of the experiments in question can be found, the possibility of the existence of some as of yet undiscoverable methodological flaw can never be completely eliminated.
He does say:

"The brief characterization of scientific inquiry in the preceding section alerts us to serious problems in trying to assess the scientific status of the SAIC research. The secrecy under which the SRI and SAIC programs was conducted necessarily cut them off from the communal aspects of scientific inquiry. The checks and balances that come from being an open part of the disciplinary matrix were absent. With the exception of the past year or so, none of the reports went through the all-important peer-review system. Worse, promising findings did not have the opportunity of being replicated in other laboratories."

"Unfortunately, ten experiments--especially from one laboratory (considering the SAIC program as a continuation of the SRI program)--is far too few to establish reliable relationships in almost any area of inquiry. In the traditionally elusive quest for psi, ten experiments from one laboratory promise very little in the way of useful conclusions."
"The ten SAIC experiments suffer another handicap in their quest for scientific status. The principal investigator was not free to run the program to maximize scientific payoff. Instead, he had to do experiments and add variables to suit the desires of his sponsors. The result was an attempt to explore too many questions with too few resources. In other words, the scientific inquiry was spread too thin. The 10 experiments were asked to provide too many sorts of information.

For these reasons, even before we get to the details (and remember the devil is usually in the details), the scientific contribution of this set of studies will necessarily be limited."

And finally:

"HAS ANOMALOUS COGNITION BEEN PROVEN?

Obviously, I do not believe that the contemporary findings of parapsychology, including those from the SRI/SAIC program, justify concluding that anomalous mental phenomena have been proven. Professor Utts and some parapsychologists believe otherwise. I admit that the latest findings should make them optimistic. The case for psychic functioning seems better than it ever has been. The contemporary findings along with the output of the SRI/SAIC program do seem to indicate that something beyond odd statistical hiccups is taking place. I also have to admit that I do not have a ready explanation for these observed effects. Inexplicable statistical departures from chance, however, are a far cry from compelling evidence for anomalous cognition."

He's quite sure that nothing has been proved and nothing has yet been replicated in a meaningful way. He does say that SAIC is a bit better than what has gone before but are still short of a rigorous unbiased scientific method.

The conclusions at the end of the article are also quite cautious and basically reinforce the above.
 
dreeness . said:
http://www.ics.uci.edu/~jutts/hyman.html

Here Hyman says, basically, that while no flaw in the methodology of the experiments in question can be found, the possibility of the existence of some as of yet undiscoverable methodological flaw can never be completely eliminated.


Ray Hyman said:
3. Although, I cannot point to any obvious flaws in the experiments, the experimental program is too recent and insufficiently evaluated to be sure that flaws and biases have been eliminated. Historically, each new paradigm in parapsychology has appeared to its designers and contemporary critics as relatively flawless. Only subsequently did previously unrecognized drawbacks come to light. Just as new computer programs require a shakedown period before hidden bugs come to light, each new scientific program requires scrutiny over time in the public arena before its defects emerge. Some possible sources of problems for the SAIC program are its reliance on experienced viewers, and the use of the same judge--one who is familiar to the viewers, for all the remote viewing.

Wiktionary said:
paraphrase

(plural paraphrases)

  1. A restatement of a text in different words, often to clarify meaning.
 
Jessica Utts said:
Response To Ray Hyman's Report
of September 11, 1995
"Evaluation of Program on Anomalous Mental Phenomena"

Professor Jessica Utts
Division of Statistics
University of California, Davis

September 15, 1995

Jessica Utts also said:
The contents of this document are copyright 1995 by Jessica Utts. All rights reserved.

...So it would probably be best for interested parties to read the document directly from the source:

http://www.ics.uci.edu/~jutts/response.html
 
If you're looking for formal papers, keep in mind that Princeton for years did research into such things at their PEAR institute. Including experiments similar to what you mentioned, with people trying to affect random number generators.

This sort of research was nicely satirised in Ghostbusters. Bill Murray's character pulls a pretty female student by fiddling the results of a test for psychic ability. He has lost all belief and interest in the existence of the paranormal and is reduced to using it for his own ends, just as any other charlatan would. Brilliant.
 
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