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Solar Cycles / Solar Flares / Coronal Mass Ejections / Solar Storms

KeyserXSoze

Gone But Not Forgotten
(ACCOUNT RETIRED)
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Messages
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http://www.spaceweather.com/


This is quite scary, I think.
SOLAR EXPLOSIONS: Solar activity is high. An intense X5-class solar flare erupted today (Oct. 23rd at 8:35 UT) from sunspot 486 near the sun's southeastern limb. The explosion hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) into space. Although the CME was not Earth-directed, it could deliver a glancing blow to our planet's magnetic field as early as Oct 24th (although the 25th is more likely).

Another CME was already en route when this morning's explosion occured. Pictured right, it was launched on Oct 22nd by an explosion near sunspot 484. Forecasters expect it to arrive on Oct. 24th and possibly trigger a strong geomagnetic storm. Sky watchers at middle latitudes should be alert for auroras.
I hope we okay.:(

Update: More here:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3210901.stm
Earth put on solar storm alert

By Dr David Whitehouse
BBC News Online science editor

One big sunspot and another on the way
Imminent disruption is predicted for satellites, power systems and even mobile phones because of a solar storm.
It comes from one of the largest groups of sunspots seen for years. Several times in recent days superhot gas has erupted above them.

The events, called Coronal Mass Ejections, have sent 10 billion tonnes of superhot gas speeding towards Earth.

As well as communication blackouts, aurorae - polar lights - may be seen from mid-latitudes as the gas arrives.

Target Earth

A coronal mass ejection (CME) is an explosion of gas and charged particles into space from a solar flare in the corona, the outermost layer of the Sun's atmosphere. They are associated with sunspots.

The current large sunspot group is one of the largest for years. In area, it is 10 times larger than the surface of the Earth.

It has been captivating astronomers for days and has already produced several powerful solar flares - huge explosions on the Sun's surface.

One of its flares was designated as X-class - the most powerful category.

Astronomers say that the latest CME sent nearly 10 billion tonnes of matter toward Earth.

It is expected to reach Earth on Friday, and when it interacts with the planet's magnetic field it could create a significant geomagnetic storm.

Geomagnetic activity associated with CMEs can dramatically disrupt electrical and communications systems.

Satellite shutdown

CMEs can create voltage surges in electric power grids, disrupt radio communications and navigation systems, and prevent normal satellite operations.

In 1997, such a storm shut down an AT&T Telstar 401 satellite that provided television broadcasts. The following year another storm disrupted a Galaxy IV satellite that supported automated cash machines and airline tracking systems.

Such storms are also known to affect mobile phone operations and may disrupt wireless internet services.

And there is more to come. Another sunspot group is rotating into view onto the solar disk, showing even more signs of activity.

That particular region caught the attention of solar physicists while it was still on the far side of the Sun.

Using a technique based on the velocity of sound waves through the Sun's outer layers astronomers have realised that a second sunspot cluster was on the Sun's far side. It could produce more geomagnetic storms in the next two weeks.
 
At time of writing, it's apparently going to hit us in about three hours. If this was something lethal to life on earth, it just brings home how helpless and insignificant we would be... as it happens it just screws up mobile phones which I might come to regard as a godsend :D
Since we're talking about EM interference, I wonder what its effects on human biology are, and whether we're going to see an increase in weirdness this weekend?
 
well, I'll be sure to keep a look out for Northern Lights in a couple of hours time, just in case... Only seen them once, in Hampshire, exceedingly rare that far South, and apparently only a very minor show compared to what you can get, but still most impressive!

Steve.
 
O.K. Obvious question. Any reports of aurora at anomalously low latitudes? :)
 
So far I haven't felt a thing. ;) I am excited to see if there is an increase in weirdness due to these solar flares.

I did see an unusual amount of static electricity in my child's hair on the playground today.
 
Our Sky Digital was jumping about all over the place t'other day. That's about all I've noticed, not that I watch a lot of television. :D
 
inkedmagiclady said:
I did see an unusual amount of static electricity in my child's hair on the playground today.
More to do with dry, moistureless, air, I think.

...

People should keep an eye open for an 'aurora' display on clear nights, though.

They used to be a fairly regular feature of midwinter nights, when I used to live up in the far North of Scotland and it's a lightshow worth seeing. ;)
 
Solar storm buffets Earth
The Earth has been buffeted by a cloud of superhot gas thrown off the Sun a few days ago. Scientists report it caused a moderate "geomagnetic storm".
Charged particles affected electric utilities, airline communications and satellite navigation systems.

"We predicted it would be a mid-level storm, and that's where it is," said Joe Kunches, chief of space weather operations at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Environment Center in Boulder, Colorado.

Power grid operators and satellite users were notified about the storm and no serious problems have been reported.

"We've heard from the power grid operators. They're doing OK, but they're seeing the effects of the storm in their data," Kunches said.

Balancing act

Communications systems in northern Canada are reported to have also seen some effects of the storm.

Disruptions to electrical systems are caused by wild fluctuations in the Earth's magnetic field.

"The Earth's magnetic field pulls it in ... and is now trying to balance it," Kunches said.

The Global Positioning System - a satellite navigation facility - was affected, losing its high precision service for a while.

High frequency airline communications were also degraded in some cases.

Climbers on Mt Everest also reported interference on their radio equipment.

Two major expeditions on the mountain have reported trouble sending data via satellite.

As the storm continues, predicted to be followed by others for the next two weeks or so, further disruption is predicted for satellites, power systems and even mobile phones.

It comes from one of the largest groups of sunspots seen for years.
Excitement over -= for now! :D
 
NASA scientist dives into perfect space storm
Newly uncovered scientific data of recorded history's most massive space storm is helping a NASA scientist investigate its intensity and the probability that what occurred on Earth and in the heavens almost a century-and-a-half ago could happen again.

In scientific circles where solar flares, magnetic storms and other unique solar events are discussed, the occurrences of September 1-2, 1859, are the star stuff of legend. Even 144 years ago, many of Earth's inhabitants realized something momentous had just occurred. Within hours, telegraph wires in both the United States and Europe spontaneously shorted out, causing numerous fires, while the Northern Lights, solar-induced phenomena more closely associated with regions near Earth's North Pole, were documented as far south as Rome, Havana and Hawaii, with similar effects at the South Pole.

"Remarkably, science has documented solar events a hundred times more intense," said Dr. Bruce Tsurutani, a plasma physicist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. "But none of them interacted with the Earth in such a violent manner. What happened in 1859 was a combination of several events that occurred on the Sun at the same time. If they took place separately they would be somewhat notable events. But together they create the most potent disruption of Earth's ionosphere in recorded history. What they generated was the perfect space storm," he said.

To begin to understand the perfect space storm you must first begin to understand the gargantuan numbers with which plasma physicists like Tsurutani work every day. At over 1.4 million kilometers (869,919 miles) wide, the Sun contains 99.86 percent of the mass of the entire solar system: well over a million Earths could fit inside its bulk. The total energy radiated by the Sun averages 383 billion trillion kilowatts, the equivalent of the energy generated by 100 billion tons of TNT exploding each and every second.

But the energy released by the Sun is not always constant. Close inspection of the Sun's surface reveals a turbulent tangle of magnetic fields and boiling arc-shaped clouds of hot plasma dappled by dark, roving sunspots.

Every once in a while -- exactly when scientists cannot predict - - an event occurs on the surface of the Sun that releases a tremendous amount of energy in the form of a solar flare or a coronal mass ejection, an explosive burst of very hot, electrified gases with a mass that can surpass that of Mount Everest.

What transpired during the dog days of summer 1859, across the 150 million-kilometer (about 93 million-mile) chasm of interplanetary space that separates the Sun and Earth, was this: on August 28, solar observers noted the development of numerous sunspots on the Sun's surface. Sunspots are localized regions of extremely intense magnetic fields. These magnetic fields intertwine, and the resulting magnetic energy can generate a sudden, violent release of energy called a solar flare. From August 28 to September 2 several solar flares were observed. Then, on September 1, the Sun released a mammoth solar flare. For almost an entire minute the amount of sunlight the Sun produced at the region of the flare actually doubled.

"With the flare came this explosive release of a massive cloud of magnetically charged plasma called a coronal mass ejection," said Tsurutani. "These things actually fire out from the Sun radially, so not all of them head toward the Earth. But those that do usually take three to four days to reach Earth. This one took all of 17 hours and 40 minutes," he noted.

Not only was this coronal mass ejection an extremely fast mover, the magnetic fields contained within its charged particles were extremely intense and in direct opposition with Earth's magnetic fields. That meant the coronal mass ejection of September 1, 1859, overwhelmed Earth's own magnetic field, allowing charged particles to penetrate into Earth's upper atmosphere. The endgame to such a stellar event is one heck of a light show and more -- including potential disruptions of electrical grids and communications systems.

Back in 1859 the invention of the telegraph was only 15 years old and society's electrical framework was truly in its infancy. A 1994 solar storm caused major malfunctions to two communications satellites, disrupting newspaper, network television and nationwide radio service throughout Canada. Other storms have affected systems ranging from cell phone service and TV signals to GPS systems and electrical power grids. In March 1989, a solar storm much less intense than the perfect space storm of 1859 caused the Hydro-Quebec (Canada) power grid to go down for over nine hours, and the resulting damages and loss in revenue were estimated to be in the hundreds of millions of dollars.

"The question I get asked most often is, 'Could a perfect space storm happen again, and when?'" added Tsurutani. "I tell people it could, and it could very well be even more intense than what transpired in 1859. As for when, we simply do not know," he said.

To research this perfect space storm, Tsurutani and co-writers Drs. Walter Gonzalez, of the Brazilian National Space Institute, and Gurbax Lakhina and Sobhana Alex, of the India Institute of Geomagnetism, used previously reported ground, solar and auroral observations, and recently re-discovered ground-based magnetic- field data from Colaba Observatory in India. The findings were published in a recent issue of the Journal of Geophysical Research.
 
I think an ion storm would be great. There is nothing like some serious chaos for some entertainment.
I can see it now, globally loosing 80% of military satelites, power stations, radio stations and television all down.
All communications ground to a halt. The fabric of modern society crumbling. Mass riots, lynchings and martial law.
There is only one serious draw back and that is no internet and therefore no FT.
Maybe we could all get together via snail mail.
Stamp sales would soar.
 
I swear, given how many threads here involve cataclysmic scenarios of one sort or another you'd think we're all End Time-Apocalyptic-Doom Freaks. (Ooh, ooh, I think I have a forum suggestion for the 'what would you like to see on MB thread).:D :eek:
 
lopaka said:
I swear, given how many threads here involve cataclysmic scenarios of one sort or another you'd think we're all End Time-Apocalyptic-Doom Freaks. (Ooh, ooh, I think I have a forum suggestion for the 'what would you like to see on MB thread).:D :eek:

You'd like to see the apocalypse on the Fortean Times MessageBoard? That's a bit of a request isn't it? :D
 
Well...I haven't checked the calender yet this week. But I'll just wait for the post in 'Announcements'- The Apopsicle: The Meet-Up.
 
We just don't have enough excitement around here. (Meaning planet earth.) I get all built up for this solar storm thing ....... the scientists were worried, and then, NOTHING.

I am a jaded Fortean. :(
 
The Apopsicle: The Meet-Up.
:laughing:

:nonplus: Can someone just email me for the popsicle? I will do my best to be there. Thanks. ;)

edit: just want to let you know I am not a sock puppet either. I have enough trouble keeping track of myself.
 
This from a woman who posted earlier today about having the Buddha statue in her home fissure during the Loma Prieta earthquake?! Yikes. [about the lack of excitement]

Don't worry, as someone said in one of the threads about supervolcanoes or killer asteroids or viruses or floods (you get the idea) 'The end of the world will be like buses, you wait ages for one, then two come along at once'. ;)
 
lopaka said:
Well...I haven't checked the calender yet this week. But I'll just wait for the post in 'Announcements'- The Apopsicle: The Meet-Up.

I am sorely tempted to post the apocalypse on the fortean calendar entry for tomorrow. Just to see if anyone picks up on it. I'm sure no one looks at it.
 
There is a Fortean calendar?


Originally posted by lopaka
This from a woman who posted earlier today about having the Buddha statue in her home fissure during the Loma Prieta earthquake?! Yikes. [about the lack of excitement]

Don't worry, as someone said in one of the threads about supervolcanoes or killer asteroids or viruses or floods (you get the idea) 'The end of the world will be like buses, you wait ages for one, then two come along at once'.



I just can't get enough. :rofl:
As long as I have enough time to post something here on the FT messageboard before we all evaporate.
 
Cool! I will check the calendar often. I must know when this popsicle thing is so I can have my toes done and make-up ON.
 
The apocalypse brought to you live in realtime updates. Only on FT.
I like the sound of that.
 
Charles Hoy Fort Birthdays

I think somebody could at least put Charles Fort's birthdays in the calendar, but I can't see how it works.

Charles Fort was born on August 6, 1874, and again (according to other sources) on August 9, 1874, a nice trick which only Fort or a Fortean can pull off. I share one of his birthdays.

1874 is one of my favourite years: Fort was born; Lewis Carroll published THE HUNTING OF THE SNARK; and Jack London (author of THE VOYAGE OF THE SNARK) and co-builder of the ship, THE SNARK, was born.

Coincidence? Mr. London is faux reticent on the question. Nudge nudge, wink wink.

Forteans ought to celebrate Fort's birthday with a Fortean Snark hunt--don't forget your forks and railroad shares. Watch out for the Boojums or you will quietly vanish awayyyyyy....
 
Apopsicle: The World Will End in Sugary Ice

lopaka said:
Well...I haven't checked the calender yet this week. But I'll just wait for the post in 'Announcements'- The Apopsicle: The Meet-Up.

Apopsicle: So the rumours are true then? The World will end in Ice rather than Fire. Sir Fred Hoyle is vindicated.

Not to mention, Robert Frost (but then he was prejudiced by what THE NEW SCIENTIST calls the nominative imperative:

Robert Frost (1874–1963). Miscellaneous Poems to 1920. 1920.

2. Fire and Ice

(From Harper’s Magazine, December 1920.)


SOME say the world will end in fire,
Some say in ice.
From what I’ve tasted of desire
I hold with those who favor fire.
But if it had to perish twice, 5
I think I know enough of hate
To know that for destruction ice
Is also great
And would suffice.
 
You may jest, but...

'Perfect solar storm' sends massive eruption Earth's way
The third most powerful solar flare ever recorded erupted from the Sun earlier today, and scientists say Earth could feel the effects with communications disruptions and loss of power.

At about 6 a.m. EST (1100 GMT), satellites watched as the event occurred. The flare was significantly larger than several unleashed since last week.

"This is the real thing," says John Kohl, a solar astrophysicist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics (CfA) and principal investigator for the Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer on board NASA's Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) spacecraft.

"The eruption was positioned perfectly. It's headed straight for us like a freight train, so a major geomagnetic storm is bound to happen when it reaches us on October 29th or 30th."

"It was slightly more powerful that the famous March 6, 1989 flare which was related to the disruption of the power grids in Canada," Dr. Paal Brekke, the European Space Agency SOHO deputy project scientist reported.

Today's solar flare was classified as an X18-category explosion, meaning that it can trigger planet-wide radio blackouts and long-lasting radiation storms.

"Last week's (coronal mass ejection) hit the Earth with only a glancing blow," says Kohl, although it was sufficient to disrupt airline communications. "Today's eruption was pointed directly at us, and is expected to have major effects."

"We are waiting for the prediction of the geomagnetic storm level from NOAA (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)," says Kohl. "What we know at this point is that the flare was nearly perfectly positioned near the center of the Sun, and that a halo coronal mass ejection has left the Sun and is heading toward the Earth. The geomagnetic storm is likely to be a strong one, and will last about 24 hours."

"We may be in for some great aurora," Brekke said.

Such solar storms have the potential for knocking out communications and power grids on Earth, and can be harmful to orbiting satellites and astronauts.

The International Space Station's current resident crew -- commander Michael Foale and flight engineer Alexander Kaleri -- will protect themselves by moving to a portion of the outpost that provides the most shielding from radiation.

NOAA classifies geomagnetic storms on a scale from 1 to 5. Initial indications show that this has the potential to be a G5 storm - the top of the scale. The most benign effect of such a storm would be bright auroras visible from more southern latitudes than usual. However, the geomagnetic storm triggered by the CME also could interfere with satellite communications; disrupt power grids (as occurred in the 1989 Quebec blackout); even short out orbiting satellites, rendering them permanently inoperable.

"We've already had to shut down our SOHO instrument for safety reasons. It's getting blasted by high-energy particles from this solar flare," says Kohl. "Of more concern, geosynchronous communications satellites are likely to be affected." In California, where raging wildfires have damaged many microwave communication antennas on the ground, satellite communications have been crucial to emergency efforts. Emergency personnel should be prepared for potential disruptions and communication interference.

"There's no direct danger to people on the ground," Kohl adds, "and I'm sure that NASA is monitoring the situation for any potential effects on the space station crew, and that they are taking appropriate precautions."

According to NOAA, a G5-class geomagnetic storm can have the following effects:

Power systems: Widespread voltage control problems and protective system problems can occur, some grid systems may experience complete collapse or blackouts. Transformers may experience damage.

Spacecraft operations: May experience extensive surface charging, problems with orientation, uplink/downlink and tracking satellites.

Other systems: Pipeline currents can reach hundreds of amps, HF (high frequency) radio propagation may be impossible in many areas for one to two days, satellite navigation may be degraded for days, low-frequency radio navigation can be out for hours, and aurora has been seen as low as Florida and southern Texas (typically 40 degrees geomagnetic lat.).
(3 pics on page.)
 
Originally posted by rynner
You may jest, but...
:eek!!!!:

Well maybe if I go over to the ghost, crypto, conspiracy, ufo and other threads, and complain that there is not enough action like I did in this thread, the Universe will respond accordingly?



BTW, wonderful informative and poetic posts, littleblackduck!
 
The universe will end in ice.
The entropy of the universe is always increasing and I seem to remember that the term for the whole shebang is " Heat Death of the Universe".
But we will all be etherial beings made of energy and have no need for material bodies.
And yes Hell will have frozen over.
 
Fenris said:
The universe will end in ice.
The entropy of the universe is always increasing and I seem to remember that the term for the whole shebang is " Heat Death of the Universe".
But we will all be etherial beings made of energy and have no need for material bodies.
And yes Hell will have frozen over.
I don't think you've quite got the Heat Death / Energy Dissipation correlation. ;)
 
OK there will be an even spread of energy across the universe and this will preclude the possibility of entities made up of energy.
As for the increasing entropy and heat death of the universe, it is a theory that I didn't come up with, but its in my university physics text.
 
A definitive answer
http://www.physlink.com/Education/AskExperts/ae181.cfm

The 'heat-death' of the universe is when the universe has reached a state of maximum entropy. This happens when all available energy (such as from a hot source) has moved to places of less energy (such as a colder source). Once this has happened, no more work can be extracted from the universe. Since heat ceases to flow, no more work can be acquired from heat transfer. This same kind of equilibrium state will also happen with all other forms of energy (mechanical, electrical, etc.). Since no more work can be extracted from the universe at that point, it is effectively dead, especially for the purposes of humankind.

This concept is quite different from what is commonly referred to as 'cold death.' 'Cold death' is when the universe continues to expand forever. Because of this expansion, the universe continues to cool down. Eventually, the universe will be too cold to support any life, it will end in a whimper. The opposite of 'cold death,' as you can see, is NOT 'heat death,' but actually the 'big crunch.' The 'big crunch' occurs when the universe has enough matter density to contract back on itself, eventually shrinking to a point. This shrinking will cause the temperature to rise, resulting in a very hot end of the universe.
 
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