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Someone's Space Junk To Crash Onto The Moon (March 2022)

Bigphoot2

Not sprouts! I hate sprouts.
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Jul 30, 2005
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If you are on the moon - duck!

Out-of-control SpaceX rocket on collision course with moon​

Falcon 9 booster, launched from Florida in 2015 to deploy Deep Space Climate Observatory, has followed ‘chaotic’ orbit since

Space observers believe the Falcon 9 rocket is on course to hit the moon in a matter of weeks. Photograph: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

Samantha Lock
Wed 26 Jan 2022 04.11 GMT


A SpaceX rocket is on a collision course with the moon after spending almost seven years hurtling through space, experts say.
The booster was originally launched from Florida in February 2015 as part of an interplanetary mission to send a space weather satellite on a million-mile journey.

But after completing a long burn of its engines and sending the NOAA’s Deep Space Climate Observatory on its way to the Lagrange point – a gravity-neutral position four times further than the moon and in direct line with the sun – the rocket’s second stage became derelict.
At this stage it was high enough that it did not have enough fuel to return to Earth’s atmosphere but also “lacked the energy to escape the gravity of the Earth-Moon system”, meteorologist Eric Berger explained in a recent post on Ars Technica.
https://www.theguardian.com/science...acex-rocket-on-track-to-collide-with-the-moon
 

Oops ... According to this UPI article the object destined to crash into the moon was misidentified as a SpaceX rocket.
The Thing About to Crash Into The Moon May Not Be a SpaceX Rocket After All

A piece of space debris due to crash into the Moon in early March may not be a SpaceX rocket after all.

According to an update posted by astronomer Bill Gray, who wrote the Project Pluto software used to track near-Earth objects, the object on a collision course is not a discarded SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket stage, but a Chinese Long March 3C rocket stage. ...
FULL STORY: https://www.sciencealert.com/it-might-not-be-a-spacex-rocket-that-s-about-to-hit-the-moon
 
In a new twist, China has denied the rocket / space junk / whatever is theirs.
Mystery Deepens as China Denies Owning Space Junk Set to Crash Into Moon

China on Monday denied responsibility for a rocket set to slam into the Moon, after experts said the piece of space junk likely came from Beijing's lunar exploration program.

Astronomers initially thought the wayward object was a chunk of a SpaceX rocket that blasted off seven years ago and was abandoned in space after completing its mission.

But it is now believed to be the booster for the Chang'e 5-T1, launched in 2014 as part of the Chinese space agency's lunar exploration program.

The rocket is expected to crash into the far side of the moon on March 4.

But China's foreign ministry rejected the claim Monday, saying the booster in question had "safely entered the Earth's atmosphere and was completely incinerated".

Beijing "conscientiously upholds the long-term sustainability of activities in outer space", spokesman Wang Wenbin said at a regular press briefing. ...
FULL STORY: https://www.sciencealert.com/china-...that-s-about-to-crash-into-the-moon-is-theirs
 
The fellow who first identified the mystery object as a moon impactor most probably the SpaceX second stage from the DSCOVR launch is Bill Gray. Here is his Project Pluto webpage describing the observations and calculations underlying his original claims:

Pseudo-MPEC for 2014-065B = NORAD 40284 = Chang'e 5-T1 booster = lunar impactor on 2022 Mar 04
https://www.projectpluto.com/temp/dscovr.htm

Project Pluto concerns Gray's development of software designed to aid in locating and tracking asteroids and other potential impactors.
 
Here is Gray's webpage describing how he came to suspect the predicted moon impactor wasn't the SpaceX second stage he'd originally thought and why he came to believe it was actually the Chinese booster launched in 2014.
Corrected identification of object about to hit the moon

Short version : back in March 2015, I (mis)identified this object as 2015-007B, the second stage of the DSCOVR spacecraft. We now have good evidence that it is actually 2014-065B, the booster for the Chang'e 5-T1 lunar mission. (It will, however, still hit the moon within a few kilometers of the predicted spot on 2022 March 4 at 12:25 UTC, within a few seconds of the predicted time. In fact, we've gotten more observations refining the impact point slightly.) ...
FULL STORY: https://www.projectpluto.com/temp/correct.htm

NOTE: In an addendum, Gray discussed how the Chinese announcement denying the impactor is their may be confounding two different boosters from two different Chinese missions. However, the records are confusing as to whether the booster Gray now firmly believes is the moon impactor did or did not burn up during re-entry years ago.
 
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Will the Moon become a junkyard?

On 4 March, a discarded rocket booster will slam into Hertzsprung Crater on the far side of the Moon—humanity’s first known piece of litter to unintentionally reach the lunar surface. Skywatchers originally thought the booster was part of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket launched in 2015. But now they say it is part of a Chinese Long March 3C rocket that blasted off in 2014.

The confusion surrounding the booster’s origins illustrates just how hard it is to track space junk in the vicinity of the Moon. With many countries and companies preparing to head to the Moon and beyond in the coming years, researchers are bracing for the problem of lunar pollution to grow. Here’s what they’re doing to prepare.

What is lunar space junk?​

There are currently about 23,000 known bits of debris 30 centimeters or larger in orbit around our planet, and up to 100 million fragments 1 millimeter or larger. The U.S. Space Force tracks the larger pieces using radar, but only out to geostationary orbit 58,000 kilometers away from Earth. The Moon is nearly 400,000 kilometers from Earth, and little is known about objects that pass within 70,000 kilometers of its surface, an area known as the “cone of shame,” says Vishnu Reddy, who studies near-Earth objects at the University of Arizona. Low-power radars cannot reach the region, and telescopes have difficulty discerning objects when they fly so close to the bright Moon.

Reddy says there are probably fewer than 200 large pieces of space junk around the Moon, although nobody knows for sure. In the next 5 years, that number could increase significantly, with roughly 50 planned missions from the United States, China, Russia, other countries, and private companies targeting the lunar surface or its orbital space.

What makes lunar space junk unique?​

Most fragments that fall out of Earth’s orbit burn up in the atmosphere on re-entry. But the Moon’s lack of an atmosphere means that “there is no re-entry—just smash,” says Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics who maintains catalogs of artificial space objects.

Lunar impacts kick up dust, which is made of microscopic shards of abrasive volcanic glass; in the Apollo era of the 1960s and ’70s, such dust caused countless problems for vehicles, instruments, and crew. The Moon’s low gravity means dust can travel a long way, even to distant exploration sites and potential future crewed bases. ...

https://www.science.org/content/article/moon-could-soon-have-space-junk-problem
 
From a nature article:
1646343189272.png


I wonder if the tardigrades are multiplying.
 
Here's a March 8 article confirming the mystery object should have impacted the moon and that confirmation of the impact will take time.
Space Junk Just Crashed Into the Far Side of the Moon at 5,800 MPH
MARCH 8, 2022

Observers have been tracking a chunk of space junk, waiting for it to strike the Moon. It should’ve hit the far side of the Moon, and hopefully, orbiters will have images of the impact site, though that might take a while.

The origins of the junk are in dispute. Some say it’s a spent booster from a Chinese rocket. Others say it’s from a SpaceX rocket. So far, nobody is claiming it. ...

The hunk of junk has been traveling through space for seven years and impacted the Moon at about 9300 kph (5800 mph.) It should’ve struck the Moon on March 4th, and it should’ve left a crater about 20 meters (65 feet) in diameter. No observers, human or technological, were in a position to watch the impact.

But NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) will try to find it. That could take weeks or even months, though.

“NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter will use its cameras to attempt to identify the impact site and determine any potential changes to the lunar environment resulting from this object’s impact,” an agency spokesman told The Wall Street Journal. “The search for the impact crater will be challenging and might take weeks to months.” ...
FULL STORY: https://scitechdaily.com/space-junk-just-crashed-into-the-far-side-of-the-moon-at-5800-mph/
 
NASA has announced the LRO has located the impact point. Strangely, the object left a double crater on impact - something no earlier rocket body impact has done. The identity of the object remains unknown.
NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Spots Mystery Rocket Impact Site on Moon

Astronomers discovered a rocket body heading toward a lunar collision late last year. Impact occurred on March 4, 2022, with NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) later spotting the resulting crater. Surprisingly the crater is actually two craters, an eastern crater (18-meter diameter, about 19.5 yards) superimposed on a western crater (16-meter diameter, about 17.5 yards). ...

The double crater was unexpected and may indicate that the rocket body had large masses at each end. Typically a spent rocket has mass concentrated at the motor end; the rest of the rocket stage mainly consists of an empty fuel tank. Since the origin of the rocket body remains uncertain, the double nature of the crater may indicate its identity. ...

No other rocket body impacts on the Moon created double craters. ...
FULL STORY (With Illustrative Images): https://scitechdaily.com/nasas-luna...ter-spots-mystery-rocket-impact-site-on-moon/
 
From a nature article:
View attachment 52675

I wonder if the tardigrades are multiplying.
I find tha tardigrades fascinating and also somewhat overlooked as it represents the first time in history we have deposited Earth lifeforms on the moon (or any other non-terrestrial body). That they happen to be just about the most indestructible lifeforms our planet can boast only makes it more exciting. They are almost certainly in a desiccated state but that doesn't mean they are dead

Edit: just as I was getting excited, someone has done a study:

"The research was inspired by a 2019 Israeli mission called Beresheet, which attempted to land on the Moon. The probe infamously included tardigrades on board that mission managers had not disclosed to the public, and the lander crashed with its passengers in tow, raising concerns about contamination. "I was very curious," says Alejandra Traspas, a Ph.D. student at Queen Mary University of London who led the study. "I wanted to know if they were alive.": [my bold]

And...

"The results suggest the tardigrades on Beresheet were unlikely to survive. Although the lander is thought to have crashed at a few hundred meters per second, the shock pressure its metal frame generated hitting the surface would have been "well above" 1.14 GPa, Traspas says. "We can confirm they didn't survive.""

https://www.science.org/content/article/hardy-water-bears-survive-bullet-impacts-point

So why weren't we told in advance that tardigrades were going to the moon? Fear of upsetting vegans?
 
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NASA has announced the LRO has located the impact point.
This fascinating incident raises all sorts of questions - are we seeing this impact collision happening as a result of the (in the 1960s/70s oft-cited) 'slingshot intersectional transfer' effects? I mean the extraplanetary inter-body gravitational effects that were originally-used to aid the earliest steps into space? Are these actually more like 'trade winds' than I ever previously understood, and consequently there's a inevitable compound trajectory effect that will always result in debris being pulled to the moon?
 
If this object has been in orbit near the Moon for several years, it may have had its orbit 'randomised' somewhat by interaction with the unusual mass concentrations (mascons) that lie beneath the surface. This would make it difficult to establish the exact origin of this craft.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_concentration_(astronomy)#Lunar_mascons

In the short term, the effects of the mascons are relatively easy to predict, but the error bars get bigger the further back in time you go.
 
Are these actually more like 'trade winds' than I ever previously understood, and consequently there's a inevitable compound trajectory effect that will always result in debris being pulled to the moon?
Apart from four special "frozen orbit" inclination zones, any lunar satellite in low orbit will eventually hit the surface.
 
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