Tarot Experiment Anyone?

Min Bannister

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#31
It'd make a really good experiment with 100+ subjects, perhaps with some other data on the participants, traits or beliefs maybe.

I'd think your sample here was very atypical and small, a cross section of the general population would more likely support your hypothesis.
Well yes it was but like I said, it was just for a bit of fun. It would be interesting to do it properly though.
 

Min Bannister

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#32
Can I join.

Pretty please.

INT21.
Do you mean to what Coal described or onto this experiment? If the latter, go ahead. I can always collect more data and add it on to see what effect (if any) we get with more participants. :)
 

Ulalume

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#34
I wasn't around when this experiment was proposed (due to ill health, meaning the chariot card was correct ;) ) but i'll add my answers now, if that's okay -

1. 2
2. 1
3. *
4. 1
5. 3
6. 1

3 is difficult to decide, because by the description offered, it doesn't fit. However, in my own readings, one of my sons is represented by the page of swords, and he's just got a new job. By those lights, it fits perfectly. Not sure what's the right number to pick in that case. Maybe 2 as a happy medium?
 

Min Bannister

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#36
I count three scores above 12: escargot, me and Rosebud
That is only if you include question 0 which I didn't include as some people didn't answer it. I thought it was get confusing if I asked each of those people to post again answering it so I thought it would be better just to leave it out.

Of course it has got confusing anyway so sorry for that. :shy:
 

Min Bannister

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#38
3 is difficult to decide, because by the description offered, it doesn't fit. However, in my own readings, one of my sons is represented by the page of swords, and he's just got a new job. By those lights, it fits perfectly. Not sure what's the right number to pick in that case. Maybe 2 as a happy medium?
Hmm, tricky, I would say that since that card relates to you and doesn't fit it should score a 1. However, due to the subjective nature of tarot it is " in the eye of the beholder" as to whether it fits or not. 2 sounds like a good compromise!
 

Min Bannister

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#39
Ah sorry, I didn't read your post carefully enough.
Once I have collected more data (feel free to keep 'em coming folks!) I will try to present it in a computery table thing so that people can see my working out etc. I briefly considered photographing the piece of paper I was scribbling on and posting it but wasn't sure it was ledgible..
 

Krepostnoi

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#40
It's an interesting experiment, thank you for running it.

I'd be willing to stake good money on the fact that your respondents' awareness that this was a generic reading has influenced the apparent low scores. I remember we have discussed in the past the possibility of running a blind trial, whereby some respondents get a bespoke reading while a control group is presented with a generic reading, but the respondents don't know which group they fall into. I wonder whether scores would be higher across the board in such a scenario.

Of course, it would be the devil of a job to organise, and I doubt we would get anywhere near enough volunteers to lend any kind of statistical credence to the results, but it's an intriguing concept to idly contemplate. For me, at least...
 
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#41
It's an interesting experiment, thank you for running it.

I'd be willing to stake good money on the fact that your respondents' awareness that this was a generic reading has influenced the apparent low scores. I remember we have discussed in the past the possibility of running a blind trial, whereby some respondents get a bespoke reading while a control group is presented with a generic reading, but the respondents don't know which group they fall into. I wonder whether scores would be higher across the board in such a scenario.

Of course, it would be the devil of a job to organise, and I doubt we would get anywhere near enough volunteers to lend any kind of statistical credence to the results, but it's an intriguing concept to idly contemplate. For me, at least...
It wouldn't be too tricky to do with an internet based survey, although it would depend on what was meant by a 'bespoke' reading.
 

Krepostnoi

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#42
It wouldn't be too tricky to do with an internet based survey, although it would depend on what was meant by a 'bespoke' reading.
One ethically dubious solution to that particular problem would be to just have the one reading for "both" groups...
 

Min Bannister

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#43
I'd be willing to stake good money on the fact that your respondents' awareness that this was a generic reading has influenced the apparent low scores.
Good point. Of course a "proper" experiment would be double blinded and so on. It should be possible to do a single blinded trial here at least but as you say, it would involve a lot of PM's and tarot readings. :gent:
 
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#46
Well that would actually eliminate a possible confounding factor that Tarot reading might work!
That could be your hypothesis, that it works.

Give everyone the same reading, but tell them it's tailored to them.
You'd need three groups I reckon:

(1) People who receive and think they got an actual reading.
(2) People who think they got an actual reading but were given random Barnum statements
(3) People who were told they were given random Barnum statements

This assumes (1) and (2) are different and you'd also need to collect some data on the subject, for example some information on participants belief systems. There's some useful ideas on the type of measures one might use in:

"On the reception and detection of pseudo-profound bullshit" (Pennycook, Cheyne, Barr, Koehler & Fugelsang. 2015).
 

Cochise

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#47
Interesting.

It's difficult to test people who have not been warned it is a test because some are likely to adjust their perceptions - and even their future actions - to match the reading rather than the other way round.

On the other hand people who have been warned are also in effect pre-warned to be cynical.

'Ask not the Elves because they will reply both yes and no' :)
 
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#48
It's difficult to test people who have not been warned it is a test because some are likely to adjust their perceptions - and even their future actions - to match the reading rather than the other way round.

On the other hand people who have been warned are also in effect pre-warned to be cynical.
That's one of the main problems with research in this area. One is obliged to tell people (from an ethical standpoint) what is being tested, and while some subterfuge is allowed, it must be approved by ethical review (if you're an academic).

If you're going to place people in a environment you've created (for example) to see if people will experience ghostly phenomena, it's kind of hard to brief participants ethically (that is 'they might experience something scary') without giving the game away. Once you've blown the gaff (so to speak), the participants are 'primed' (the implicit memory of a previous event influences the perception of a later event).

That why you ought to randomise everything that can be randomised. I forget who said it but "No randomisation equals no effect".

Experiments of this type (in anomalous psychology) have succeeded in showing that the more people believe in ghostly phenomena, the more they will experience them and it's not an easy thing to design, but it can be done.
 
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#49
Does anyone fancy trying a Tarot card reading experiment? Just for fun.

I propose getting few people interested, drawing a single Tarot spread completely at random and publishing the results here to look at the basis of cold reading. Obviously real cold reading requires real-time feedback but I am interested to know how many hits I can get on average. Players can score each card as it is relevant to them (or not). The object would be to see how many people out of a group might find the reading significant to them (or not) and find out how effective the reading is on average.

I suggest a simple scoring scheme for each card such as;-

1. No, nothing to do with me.
2. Hmm, can kind of see how it might apply to me but not really entirely relevant.
3. Wow Min, are you really psychic or what?

Then add the numbers up over a seven card spread for a maximum of 21 points and a minimum of 7. Obviously the closer to 21 points, the better the "fit".

Players can choose whether to talk about each card before scoring, to simply give the score for each card or to just give their total score for all cards. That way no-one need give away anything they might find personal if they don't want to.

How does that sound?

Would anyone be interested in playing along?
Would be very interesting count me in
 
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#51
Hi there just read the card meanings and, yes there are some points that are interesting especially the health aspect as I am at the moment recovering from a major operation thanks for the reading are you planning to do this in more depth or is it an experiment for you?
 

Yithian

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#52
Hi there just read the card meanings and, yes there are some points that are interesting especially the health aspect as I am at the moment recovering from a major operation thanks for the reading are you planning to do this in more depth or is it an experiment for you?
Post you 'accuracy score' [see first post], so we can see whether you score above or below average.

Sorry to hear about major operation; best of luck with the recovery aspect.
 
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#53
oooh yes sorry forgot to do the score my puter keeps freezing so bear with me I scored the reading 16 when I read it a second time was quite accurate. I also read the tarot and have organised many psychic fayres in the uk.
 

Yithian

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#55
oooh yes sorry forgot to do the score my puter keeps freezing so bear with me I scored the reading 16 when I read it a second time was quite accurate. I also read the tarot and have organised many psychic fayres in the uk.
That's way above average--I wonder whether your own experience of interpreting the cards may have resulted in your making less natural/obvious/literal connections. A little like the way in which one gets better at cryptic crossword puzzles.

Just speculation.
 

Min Bannister

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#56
Hi there just read the card meanings and, yes there are some points that are interesting especially the health aspect as I am at the moment recovering from a major operation thanks for the reading are you planning to do this in more depth or is it an experiment for you?
Hi Karen. Thanks for your score.

I would like to do a more in depth experiment but it is quite tricky to manage to do it properly over the internet. This is just to give an idea.
 
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#57
yes I think you are right maybe I am not a good subject to use. It is a very interesting experiment I look forward to the results if there are any?
 
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