Ringo
Less than 2m away
Is it? I can't see how it would, as it never achieves 1. Would somebody explain it to me as I have a full cup of tea and a packet of chocolate digestives waiting to be nibbled, dribbled and crumbled all over the keyboard.
True, it can never achieve 1.Ringo_ said:Is it? I can't see how it would, as it never achieves 1. Would somebody explain it to me as I have a full cup of tea and a packet of chocolate digestives waiting to be nibbled, dribbled and crumbled all over the keyboard.
No, I still reckon you're confused here. What everyone on the thirds thing is doing is treating the choice thing as one event, whereas it is in fact two events.richajc~ said:You have 3 doors, A B C there is a 1/3 chance the car is behind any one of the doors,and let's say you choose A.
So we have the car has a 1/3 chance of being behind A and there is a 2/3 chance it is behind B or C.
1/3 A or 2/3(B or C)
Now the host comes and opens one of the doors which is never the door you have chosen or the one with the car. Let's say its C.
Now we get:
1/3 A or 2/3 B
I hope that helps understand how the 2/3 odds carry over to the one door. I think one of the confusing things about this problem is the 2nd choice isn't really 50/50 since the odds were 1/3 when you initially chose.
And what are tha chances of that!.Fluttermoth said:I've had loads of arguments with people about it too!
I think humans are particularly bad at probabilities.
Yes, she has the highest IQ on the planet.It has only just occurred to me to look on the forum for help with the 'Monty Hall' (3 doors, 2 goats, 1 car) problem I have been mulling over since 1991. Of course back then I had no internet nor did I know what the probability puzzle was called. An article in the Daily Telegraph mentioned Marilyn vos Savant, an American columnist who postulated an answer to the Monty Hall problem in 1990 and was savaged by other Mathematician for being guilty of three unforgiveable sins: she was a woman, she was attractive, she was popular.
"the host (who knows what's behind the doors) always opens a losing door on purpose". Makes sense now.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marilyn_vos_Savant
Bit like Carol Vorderman or Rachel RileyYes, she has the highest IQ on the planet.
Higher IQ than them...Bit like Carol Vorderman or Rachel Riley
Say it isn't true !!Higher IQ than them...
See #79 & #82 in this threadThat's a great puzzle! Whilst I can understand the hard logic, it still somehow feels wrong.
Reminds me of another conundrum which was (to me anyway) hard to get your head around.
Three friends go to a café, order a set meal at £5 each and hand over a total of £15.
The meal is poor and they complain to the waiter.
He notifies the manager who says OK knock £5 off their total bill.
The waiter though is dishonest. He pockets £2 and refunds each customer only £1 each.
So, instead of paying £5 each, they only paid £4.
But 4 x 3 = 12. Add to that the £2 the waiter kept and you get £14.
What happened to the other £1?
Yes, there are specific circumstances to the problem :the Host never opens a door until one has been picked by the contestant, the Host only opens a door not picked by the contestant, the Host only opens a door that has a goat behind it.So, does anyone still think the Monty Hall Problem sidesteps the rules of chance?
It's a good one - in a circular torturous repetitive kind of waySorry - should have read entire thread!
£13 divided by three = £4.33.33 etc. eachWhat happened to the other £1?
James,£13 divided by three = £4.33.33 etc. each
The statement that they only paid £4 each is a lie, taking the problem out of pure maths anyway.
Edit, scrub my own answer: here is one I copied.should end up paying 3.333 each