I have had a small number of interesting conversations with Robin Hanson; he is a very clever chap. I even named a fictional planet after him over at Orion's Arm.
But he is dead wrong about a lot of things, including UFOs/ UAPs.
Most importantly, he is dead wrong about the capacity for people to be fooled by errors and mistakes. Human perception just isn't good enough to interpret many phenomena in the sky, especially when those phenomena are short-lived and leave no trace. I have very little doubt that nearly every case that cannot be explained by hoax can be explained by honest error.
And hoaxes are just a consequence of human nature; the mere existence of news reports about UFOs/UAPs is enough to make people report them (this also happened with the airship flap of the late 19th/early 20th century). People want to be a part of this and any other mass-media phenomenon, for reasons that aren't entirely clear.
That leaves hallucinations, secret groups on Earth and secret groups in the sky.
UFOs/UAPs caused by hallucinations are very rare indeed; having said that I have encountered a small number of reports triggered by medical conditions, sometimes involving deteriorating eyesight. One's eye-brain system sometimes refuses to accept that it no longer works properly, and fills in the blanks. Curiously the number of reports caused by drink or drugs seems to be very small indeed. (Perhaps people who are drunk/stoned enough to see a UFO forget what they saw, or dismiss it as delirium when they are sober).
Cases caused by 'secret groups on Earth' are almost certainly on the rise; these secret groups on Earth include just about every major military power, in particular but not limited to China, who are investing heavily in stealth, drone and balloon technology. All these technologies have been the root cause of many, many reports in recent years. Note that most balloons involved in recent events seem to have been entirely innocent civilian balloons, although the ones released in Mosul and elsewhere probably had a military purpose.
Cases caused by 'secret groups beyond Earth' would presumably include aliens and extradimensional intelligences. Although I have every faith that aliens exist, and that there may be an infinite number of extradimensional universes that do (and do not) contain intelligence, they are not necessary to explain our current UFOs and UAPs, although they can't ever be ruled out.