U.S. Sizing Up Iran?

Mythopoeika

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Now there's this:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-49074162
Iran says it arrested CIA spies and sentenced some to death
Iran says it has arrested 17 spies who it says were working for the CIA, and sentenced some of them to death.
The intelligence ministry said the suspects had been collecting information in the nuclear, military and other sectors.
US President Donald Trump has dismissed the Iranian allegations, saying they are "totally false".
Washington and Tehran are at loggerheads over Iran's nuclear programme and tensions have grown.
 
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Interesting, perhaps Trump really wants a deal as long as his name is on it.

Last month, amid a rapid-fire escalation in tensions between Washington and Tehran, the Iranian Foreign Minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, received an unexpected invitation—to meet President Donald Trump in the Oval Office.

The diplomatic overture was made by Senator Rand Paul, the Kentucky Republican, during a meeting with Zarif in New York on July 15th, according to American and Iranian sources and a well-informed diplomat. With President Trump’s blessing, Paul had been working on the idea for several weeks, in consultation with the White House and the State Department. An intermediary had reached out to the Iranians on Paul’s behalf three weeks before Zarif was due in New York for meetings at the United Nations. On July 14th, the day before leaving for New York, Paul had a discussion about Iran with the President, while playing a round at the Trump golf course in Sterling, Virginia.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/news...de103&cndid=38161694&esrc=&utm_term=TNY_Daily
 

INT21

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Generally speaking, sport is the one thing that has carried on regardless of the political situation.
 

maximus otter

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Iran injects gas into advanced centrifuges, violating deal

Iran has begun injecting uranium gas into advanced centrifuges in violation of its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, a spokesman said Saturday.

Behrouz Kamalvandi of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran made the remarks in a news conference carried on live television. He spoke from a podium with advanced centrifuges standing next to him.

Iran already has breached the stockpile and enrichment level limits set by the deal, while stressing it could quickly revert back to the terms of the accord, if Europe delivers the sanctions relief promised in return for curbing Tehran’s nuclear program.

https://www.apnews.com/7e896f8a1b0c40769b54ed4f98a0f5e6

Lit. trans.: "We'll carry on committing crimes unless you stop punishing us for committing crimes."

maximus otter
 

AlchoPwn

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Read the article LINK, back in July Iran has arrested 17 Iranian dissidents who are sick of the current regime, called them CIA Agents, and planned to execute them. Given that Iran can't find actual CIA agents, they conveniently create them out of disposable enemies of the state. Clearly Russian influence is at work here, as that is straight out of a Stalin playbook.
 
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Iranian dissident assesses current situation and the medium term term prospects for war/peace.

Yassamine Mather asks what effect the presidential campaign will have on US relations with the Islamic Republic.

When it comes to US-Iran relations, we are truly in volatile, unpredictable times - a bit like Brexit. In late spring and early summer everyone was talking about an imminent attack against Iran’s military bases. The question was not whether such an attack would take place, but when.

Of course, the threat of war is still there. However, we have seen many flip-flops by the Trump administration and time seems to be running out for a military attack, perhaps in the form of air raids. The 2020 US presidential election campaign has already started and there are clear signs that Donald Trump is eager for negotiations and a deal he can sell as his foreign policy success. After all, if you can do a deal with the Taliban, why not with Iran?

The reasons for wanting a war have not changed - the US administration is losing close allies, Trump’s poll ratings are falling, some Republicans are distancing themselves from the president, the economy is doing worse than expected …

https://weeklyworker.co.uk/worker/1265/looking-for-foreign-success/
 

blessmycottonsocks

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Iranian dissident assesses current situation and the medium term term prospects for war/peace.

Yassamine Mather asks what effect the presidential campaign will have on US relations with the Islamic Republic.

When it comes to US-Iran relations, we are truly in volatile, unpredictable times - a bit like Brexit. In late spring and early summer everyone was talking about an imminent attack against Iran’s military bases. The question was not whether such an attack would take place, but when.

Of course, the threat of war is still there. However, we have seen many flip-flops by the Trump administration and time seems to be running out for a military attack, perhaps in the form of air raids. The 2020 US presidential election campaign has already started and there are clear signs that Donald Trump is eager for negotiations and a deal he can sell as his foreign policy success. After all, if you can do a deal with the Taliban, why not with Iran?

The reasons for wanting a war have not changed - the US administration is losing close allies, Trump’s poll ratings are falling, some Republicans are distancing themselves from the president, the economy is doing worse than expected …

https://weeklyworker.co.uk/worker/1265/looking-for-foreign-success/
Blimey Ramon. You seem comfortable to get cookies from some pretty damn sinister websites!
 
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Yassamine Mather casts a jaundiced eye over sections of the Iranian Opposition.

At a time when Donald Trump’s administration is facing the worst crisis of his presidency, it is worth considering the deluded sections of the Iranian opposition (left and right), who had banked on his policy of ‘regime change from above’. ...

I shall concentrate on three groups of exiled Iranian oppositionists: the Transition Management Council (Shoraye Gozar), the constitutional monarchists and the Alliance of Iranian Republicans (Etehad Jomhourikhahan Iran). ...

First we had the ridiculous ‘Transitional Council’ - an alliance between former high-ranking members of the Islamic Republic with ‘constitutional’ royalists, a number of nationalist groups, three Kurdish organisations, a Pan-Arabist group and a pro-independence Baluchi group, as well as a couple of ex-members of the Fedayeen majority. Given the limited support for any of the groups or ‘personalities’ in this alliance, the fact that such a conference took place is very likely to be thanks to Saudi/US funds. However, the attendees did not seem to realise the irony of opposing “corruption” in Iran’s Islamic Republic, while at the same time supporting the son of the ex-shah, who by all accounts stole billions of dollars from the country before fleeing in January 1979 - funds that have allowed his son and extended family to live in luxury for more than 40 years. ...

The second group, which attacks Shoraye Gozar for diluting a commitment to the monarchy, are the true royalists. They might claim some allegiance to a ‘constitutional monarchy’, but in reality they just want the son of the ex-shah on the throne. This is the group which wants to demonstrate how close it is to Donald Trump and Mike Pompeo - although in the last few week the US president and his secretary of state have been too busy with all the talk of impeachment to have time to attend photo opportunities with this crowd. ...

The third group, which has just held a conference in Berlin, is Etehad Jomhourikhahan Iran - an alliance of sections of the reformist left (and some ‘personalities’ formerly associated with the radical left) with nationalist ‘republican’ groups. Amongst the participants of this gathering were those who advocate reform inside the current regime. They often give advice to some of the many factions within the Islamic Republic about ‘moderating’ the country’s foreign policy and ending overt oppression, while at the same time making sure this is seen as ‘constructive’ advice to guarantee the survival of the Islamic Republic. ...

https://weeklyworker.co.uk/worker/1272/warmongers-and-lost-causes/
 

INT21

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Victory,

I see you changed your response while I was checking out your suggestion of looking at post 2300.(page, 77)

Although this could maybe construed as political (what the hell, the whole thread is) I do not think Iran would use a nuke on anyone. Not even Israel, much as they might wish to.

The consequences would be almost total annyalation. Probably from which the State could never recover.

But there are players who wish Iran harm.
 

INT21

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I do not want them to have nuclear weapons.

or, I should write, more nuclear weapons.

Because I believe they already have them.

Some in Iran, the majority deposited in North Korea.
So, as Iran apparently does not have the capability to manufacture their own, who supplied them ?
 

Victory

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I believe North Korea supplied Iran with nuclear warheads in exchange for co operation on missile technology.
 

INT21

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Possibly, If they actually do possess them. Bearing in mind that no one is certain that North Korea has the capability of fitting nuclear warheads to their ICBMs.

But the flaw in your logic is this.

If Iran possessed nukes already, why would they draw attention to them selves by bothering to manufacture their own ?

Would it not make more sense to remain in a state of nuclear ambiguity (like Israel) and not bother with the expense ?
 

Victory

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By whirring up the centrifuges again, they are not making completed operational nuclear weapons.
They are taking a step which contributes towards having operational nuclear weapons.

So they are seeing what they can get away with.
 

INT21

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So what ? why should anyone else be able to tell them what they can and can't do ?
 

maximus otter

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So what ? why should anyone else be able to tell them what they can and can't do ?
This sort of thing, perhaps:

Iran threatens to “eliminate Israel from the Earth”.

“The commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards said Monday that destroying arch-rival Israel has become an "achievable goal" thanks to his country's technological advances.

"This sinister regime must be wiped off the map...," Major General Hossein Salami said...”

https://www.voanews.com/middle-east/top-iran-general-says-destroying-israel-achievable-goal

"If Israel makes a strategic mistake, it has to collect bits and pieces of Tel Aviv from the lower depths of the Mediterranean Sea," IRGC Deputy Commander for Operations Abbas Nilforoushan said...Nilforoushan added that "Israel is not in a position to threaten Iran" and that "Iran has encircled Israel from all four sides." "Nothing will be left of Israel" in case of a conflict between the two countries, he vowed.

https://m.jpost.com/Middle-East/Iranian-Guards-top-commander-threatens-Israel-603239

maximus otter
 

Mythopoeika

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This sort of thing, perhaps:

Iran threatens to “eliminate Israel from the Earth”.

“The commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards said Monday that destroying arch-rival Israel has become an "achievable goal" thanks to his country's technological advances.

"This sinister regime must be wiped off the map...," Major General Hossein Salami said...”

https://www.voanews.com/middle-east/top-iran-general-says-destroying-israel-achievable-goal

"If Israel makes a strategic mistake, it has to collect bits and pieces of Tel Aviv from the lower depths of the Mediterranean Sea," IRGC Deputy Commander for Operations Abbas Nilforoushan said...Nilforoushan added that "Israel is not in a position to threaten Iran" and that "Iran has encircled Israel from all four sides." "Nothing will be left of Israel" in case of a conflict between the two countries, he vowed.

https://m.jpost.com/Middle-East/Iranian-Guards-top-commander-threatens-Israel-603239

maximus otter
Major Salami?
 

INT21

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Yes, it's true. I just Googled him.

But, (treading on thin ice here) does not Trump threatening to leave a smoking hole where North Korea used to be come in the same category.

Not everyone smiles benignly on Israel.
 

Victory

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Yes, it's true. I just Googled him.

But, (treading on thin ice here) does not Trump threatening to leave a smoking hole where North Korea used to be come in the same category.
No.
Because context is relevant.

Trump's remarks were a response to North Korean nuclear tests.
And ICBM conventional warhead tests...sent in the direction of non-nuclear Japan.
And Trump was replying to this little gem uttered by the North Korean leader.........
"The entire United States is within range of our nuclear weapons," the North Korean leader said during a televised speech.
 
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Wreckless

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Iranians Detain Nuclear Inspector In Bizarre Incident At Natanz Enrichment Facility

The United States has condemned an unusual incident which resulted in Iran stripping a UN nuclear watchdog inspector of accreditation while briefly detaining the official.

The US envoy to the International Atomic Agency (IAEA) called the incident an "outrageous provocation" while the EU representative said it was "deeply concerned by the incident concerning one IAEA inspector".

It began last week, when the UN nuclear inspector was halted before entering the Natanz uranium enrichment facility. According to Iran’s national atomic agency, she was stopped "due to concerns over carrying suspicious materials".

According to the terms of UN inspections under the 2015 JCPOA, IAEA officials possess immediate access authorization to declared nuclear sites across Iran, including daily access the sprawling nuclear enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow.

Iran claims the inspector set off a “security control machine” after which she allegedly tested positive for explosive nitrates, according to allegations by Iran's representative to the IAEA, Kazem Gharibabadi.

Authorities then stripped her of accreditation and access and even briefly confiscated her travel documents, after which she was forced to leave the country Wednesday, no longer able to carry out her inspection mission.

The EU issued a statement Thursday underscoring "full confidence in the inspectorate's professionalism and impartiality" and further called upon Iran "to ensure that IAEA inspectors can perform their duties in line with its legally binding safeguards agreement"

US ambassador to the IAEA Jackie Wolcott issued a more scathing statement, however:

"The detention of an IAEA inspector in Iran is an outrageous provocation. All board members need to make clear now and going forward that such actions are completely unacceptable, will not be tolerated, and must have consequences," Wolcott said.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopoliti...r-bizarre-incident-natanz-enrichment-facility
 

Xanatic*

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There are right now protests in Iran, and it seems Iran has cut off both the internet and any phone calls from outside the country.
 
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