U.S. Sizing Up Iran?

EnolaGaia

I knew the job was dangerous when I took it ...
Staff member
Joined
Jul 19, 2004
Messages
18,775
Reaction score
25,104
Points
309
Location
Out of Bounds
This seems like a perfect opportunity to test the effectiveness of our EMP weapons. Can't stage a cyber attack if you fry their electronics.
Too crude an approach for anything less than a full-scale strategic attack with no holds barred.

... And that same thought works in both directions. An EMP detonation would be proportionally more disruptive in an American urban area than an Iranian one.
 

ramonmercado

CyberPunk
Joined
Aug 19, 2003
Messages
50,994
Reaction score
25,160
Points
284
Location
Eblana
This seems like a perfect opportunity to test the effectiveness of our EMP weapons. Can't stage a cyber attack if you fry their electronics.
A cyber attack could be launched from anywhere though.
 

ramonmercado

CyberPunk
Joined
Aug 19, 2003
Messages
50,994
Reaction score
25,160
Points
284
Location
Eblana
Developments.

An airbase housing US troops in Iraq has been hit by rockets, according to the US Department of Defence.

Iranian state TV says the attack is a retaliation after the country's top commander Qasem Soleimani was killed in a drone strike in Baghdad on Friday, on the orders of US President Donald Trump. The Al-Asad base has been hit by multiple rockets. The White House is monitoring the attack. It is unclear if there have been any casualties.

"We are aware of the reports of attacks on US facilities in Iraq. The president has been briefed and is monitoring the situation closely and consulting with his national security team," White House spokeswoman Stephanie Grisham said in a statement.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard said the attack was in retaliation for the death of Soleimani.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51028954
 

blessmycottonsocks

Justified & Ancient
Joined
Dec 22, 2014
Messages
4,800
Reaction score
7,824
Points
209
Location
Wessex and Mercia
Airliner with 180 passengers crashes, shortly after takeoff from Tehran airport.
China has suspended all flights over Iran and Iraq.

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/boeing-737-crashes-in-iran-after-take-off-20200108

Just listened to update on BBC radio. Aircraft was a 3 year old Boeing 737 (not a "Max") with a good safety record and was seen to be on fire whilst still in the air. It is "unclear" whether the incident is linked to the ongoing conflict.
 
Last edited:

blessmycottonsocks

Justified & Ancient
Joined
Dec 22, 2014
Messages
4,800
Reaction score
7,824
Points
209
Location
Wessex and Mercia
The US CAA has now suspended all flights over the area and other countries are expected to follow suit.

It could be coincidental but, despite Iran's state media being quick to dismiss this as due to a "technical fault", modern airliners don't routinely burst into flames and crash.
One can't help recalling Malaysian flight 17, downed by a Russian SAM over Ukraine in 2014.
Just hours after Iran launched missile strikes, I would expect Tehran's missile defence systems to be in a state of very high alert, in anticipation of US retaliatory strikes. The BBC ME correspondent has just said this would be "an incredible coincidence".
 

Krepostnoi

Zing boom tararrel
Joined
Jul 9, 2012
Messages
3,523
Reaction score
7,356
Points
209
modern airliners don't routinely burst into flames and crash
Although Boeing don't have a good track record recently... But I'm nitpicking, I agree with your broad thrust. It is well within the bounds of possibility that a trigger-happy air defence team is responsible, just as with MH-17. It's also worth remembering Siberia Airlines Flight 1812 - what a different world that was, when Russia and Ukraine were conducting joint exercises, rather than fighting against each other...
 

blessmycottonsocks

Justified & Ancient
Joined
Dec 22, 2014
Messages
4,800
Reaction score
7,824
Points
209
Location
Wessex and Mercia

maximus otter

Recovering policeman
Joined
Aug 9, 2001
Messages
6,906
Reaction score
13,860
Points
309

blessmycottonsocks

Justified & Ancient
Joined
Dec 22, 2014
Messages
4,800
Reaction score
7,824
Points
209
Location
Wessex and Mercia
Ukraine's Minister for Foreign Affairs Vadym Prystaiko has refused to rule out hypothesis that the aircraft was downed by a missile and has instructed Ukraine's prosecutors to open criminal proceedings over the crash.
 

Yithian

Parish Watch
Staff member
Joined
Oct 29, 2002
Messages
30,442
Reaction score
37,021
Points
309
Location
East of Suez
Ukraine's Minister for Foreign Affairs Vadym Prystaiko has refused to rule out hypothesis that the aircraft was downed by a missile and has instructed Ukraine's prosecutors to open criminal proceedings over the crash.
Do you mean a criminal investigation?
 

Victory

Abominable Snowman
Joined
Jan 15, 2017
Messages
814
Reaction score
1,684
Points
134
Location
London
Whilst accidental missile strike is a high probability, couple of other thing which cannot be ruled out at this stage.

The crash was reported as happening very soon after take off, so possibility of a bird strike?

Also if intentional, might there have been a passenger or cargo on board someone wanted out of the way?
The British casualties included an engineer...makes me raise eyebrows and wonder if he was spying for someone or suspected of it?
Far fetched, but possible.

Update at 19:27:

A forum member just mailed me to point out that the aircraft engine was seen on fire inside the boundaries of the airport from where it took off. (Have asked them to post what they mailed in this thread, it was not contentious.)
So that strongly suggests to me it was not a missile strike.

Lends more heavily to electrical fault, possibly bird strike, or intentional fire.
 
Last edited:

ramonmercado

CyberPunk
Joined
Aug 19, 2003
Messages
50,994
Reaction score
25,160
Points
284
Location
Eblana
Whilst accidental missile strike is a high probability, couple of other thing which cannot be ruled out at this stage.

The crash was reported as happening very soon after take off, so possibility of a bird strike?

Also if intentional, might there have been a passenger or cargo on board someone wanted out of the way?
The British casualties included an engineer...makes me raise eyebrows and wonder if he was spying for someone or suspected of it?
Far fetched, but possible.
Hopefully it was just an accident. A sad event though and a Boeing 737 again, reminds me I have a Ryanair flight booked for June.

Given Trump's speech following the Iranian missile strikes hopefully this will end this cycle, too much chance of it escalating into a wider conflict.
 

blessmycottonsocks

Justified & Ancient
Joined
Dec 22, 2014
Messages
4,800
Reaction score
7,824
Points
209
Location
Wessex and Mercia
Hopefully it was just an accident. A sad event though and a Boeing 737 again, reminds me I have a Ryanair flight booked for June.

Given Trump's speech following the Iranian missile strikes hopefully this will end this cycle, too much chance of it escalating into a wider conflict.
The 737-800 has an excellent safety record and Ryanair, despite its rather boorish image, has never had a single fatality in its 34 year history and well in excess of a billion passengers.

Naturally, Boeing want to investigate the cause, but Iran has said they will not release the black box to them.
Sounds pretty suspicious.
 

ramonmercado

CyberPunk
Joined
Aug 19, 2003
Messages
50,994
Reaction score
25,160
Points
284
Location
Eblana
The 737-800 has an excellent safety record and Ryanair, despite its rather boorish image, has never had a single fatality in its 34 year history and well in excess of a billion passengers.
That might mean it's overdue a plane crash!
 

blessmycottonsocks

Justified & Ancient
Joined
Dec 22, 2014
Messages
4,800
Reaction score
7,824
Points
209
Location
Wessex and Mercia
That might mean it's overdue a plane crash!
Strewth! You're quite the little ray of sunshine aren't you!
Unless you are planning to fly over Iran, I wouldn't have any qualms about flying with Ryanair or in a Boeing.
In fact, flying back from Rhodes a couple of years ago in a Boeing Dreamliner was one of the most enjoyable flights I've ever had. It was smooth, remarkably quiet, great legroom and the cabin pressure felt more natural than any other flight I can remember.
 

Yithian

Parish Watch
Staff member
Joined
Oct 29, 2002
Messages
30,442
Reaction score
37,021
Points
309
Location
East of Suez
Broad and fairly facile observation, I know, but I've never seen political theatre looking as 'stagey' as during this past week.

It's as if the political leaders in multiple countries have given up trying to be convincing while obfuscating their real aims and the fact that they're shamelessly lying to the public.

We're practically at the point of deadpan sarcasm.
 

ramonmercado

CyberPunk
Joined
Aug 19, 2003
Messages
50,994
Reaction score
25,160
Points
284
Location
Eblana

SkepticalX

Ephemeral Spectre
Joined
Nov 19, 2009
Messages
272
Reaction score
516
Points
109
Location
Midwest, USA
737s are fully capable of flying with one engine (including take-off and landing). The engines on these are extensively tested for bird strike survivability (including chucking frozen turkeys into them). Not sure if they now test for drone ingestion, but I would not be surprised if they do. Bottom line is that, when properly maintained, these planes do not fall out of the sky easily. My suspicion is that this may have been an accidental shoot-down or an act of terrorism.
 

AlchoPwn

Public Service is my Motto.
Joined
Nov 2, 2017
Messages
2,568
Reaction score
4,003
Points
154
Awful. RIP to the poor people on board. Ukraine does not seem an obvious focus for revenge, unless I'm missing something. I hope it is nothing more than a dreadful coincidence.
I agree. Let's hope so. On the other hand, it was a foreign plane in Iranian airspace and Iran refuses to hand over the black box. I think it is premature and a bit propagandistic to suggest that the plane was shot down as the BBC does in this article (Link) but it would also be wrong not to voice those suspicions. So many Canadians died too. What has Canada ever done to Iran? Or Ukraine for that matter? Time will tell the truth of the matter as with MH17.
 

EnolaGaia

I knew the job was dangerous when I took it ...
Staff member
Joined
Jul 19, 2004
Messages
18,775
Reaction score
25,104
Points
309
Location
Out of Bounds
About the black boxes ...

Under international treaty and protocol Iran (the nation in which the crash occurred) is accorded the primary responsibility / authority for the investigation. The second automatic nominee for a role is the nation in which the carrier (airline) is based - i.e., Ukraine. The nation in which the aircraft was manufactured (USA) is third in the presumptive line of participants.

The black box issue is therefore something of a red herring. Neither the US nor Boeing hold any automatically assigned or accorded authority in the investigation per se. Iran has the lead, and for the time being US / Boeing involvement is Iran's call to make.

Having said that ... I doubt the accident's cause will be authoritatively determined without Boeing's technical support and knowledge.
 

blessmycottonsocks

Justified & Ancient
Joined
Dec 22, 2014
Messages
4,800
Reaction score
7,824
Points
209
Location
Wessex and Mercia
737s are fully capable of flying with one engine (including take-off and landing). The engines on these are extensively tested for bird strike survivability (including chucking frozen turkeys into them). Not sure if they now test for drone ingestion, but I would not be surprised if they do. Bottom line is that, when properly maintained, these planes do not fall out of the sky easily. My suspicion is that this may have been an accidental shoot-down or an act of terrorism.
I know the Iranian dictators have acquired the nickname of the "mad mullahs", but doing another Lockerbie is more their style and I doubt even they would be mad enough to sanction a terrorist attack on a plane carrying dozens of their own nationals. I note that Trump is now hinting that the aircraft was most likely shot down by a Tehran-based SAM.
 

blessmycottonsocks

Justified & Ancient
Joined
Dec 22, 2014
Messages
4,800
Reaction score
7,824
Points
209
Location
Wessex and Mercia
Canadian premier Justin Trudeau just making a press statement on TV that they believe it was an Iranian missile that downed the airliner and he is demanding access to the flight recorders.
 
Top