LEADERSHIP: Mighty Venezuela Looks for Justice
February 22, 2007: Venezuela is rearming, mainly via six billion dollars worth of Russian weapons.
Officials insist that claimed the stuff is needed to protect the country from an American invasion.
But for the last two years, Venezuelan officials, including the country's demagogic president, Hugo
Chavez, have made numerous public statements about the "reunification" of the islands of
the Dutch West Indies (Aruba, Bonaire, and Curaτao) with Venezuela. Added to that there is
the ancient claim on most of neighboring Guyana, some disputed Colombian territorial waters, and
very flimsy claims on Caribbean islands like Trinidad and Tobago. There has been some actions as
well. Venezuelan violations of Dutch air space and territorial waters, including illegal over
flights by military aircraft, have occurred with some frequency. In addition, Venezuelan authorities
have urged residents of the islands to form "Bolivarian" cells, in support of eventual
"reunification."
The Netherlands responded by reinforcing their West Indian garrison (with consists of a small naval
contingent, a battalion of infantry, and some helicopters) with a flight of F-16s. The Dutch
government also took the matter up with the European Union, and Britain (given that some other
territories on which Venezuela is laying claims, such as Trinidad, Tobago and Guyana, are members of
the British Commonwealth) and France (which also has overseas territories in the Caribbean).
No sane man would try to use force to settle these territorial disputes. But Chavez has been doing
some pretty insane things inside Venezuela lately. He's been trashing the economy (like price
controls that force farmers to either do illegal deals on the black market, or go out of business,
and forcing foreign companies to sell their Venezuelan assets to the government at a fraction of
their cost.) In a similar situation of mad desperation, the Argentinean military dictatorship tried
to grab the Falkland islands from Britain in 1982.
Going after Guyana would not only bring the British in, but probably the United States as well.
That's because over a quarter million Guyanese live New York City, and senator Hillary Clinton would
feel obliged to answer pleas from her constituents to do something. The population of Guyana itself
is only 750,000, but the country is the size of Great Britain. The 60 percent of Guyana Venezuela
claims is thinly populated, and many of those people have long been pro-Venezuelan. Still, Chavez
would stir up a hornets nest going after Guyana.
Taking a grab for the Dutch islands would also be troublesome. Even if Venezuela follows thru and
gets those nine Russian submarines, taking and holding these islands would bring forth a military
response from the United States and Europe. Any halfway competent staff officer could point out to
Chavez the high degree of risk in going after Guyana or Aruba (which does have a lot of oil). But
Chavez has been blowing off competent advice of late, and is wary of his own military. He's
replacing a lot of trained officers with yes-men. It may be time to expect the unexpected.
From Strategy page:
http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htsub/ ... 70221.aspx