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Why Haven't Aliens Contacted Us Yet? (Fermi Paradox)

PeteByrdie said:
So, our first contact with alien beings could be with a crew of criminals with little to lose inclined to mutiny at the slightest opportunity? There's a movie plot in there somewhere.
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I have the tentative belief that the alien greys are interstellar drug dealers. They're not coming here to help us - they're businessmen!
 
PeteByrdie said:
So, those flying saucers with lights all over have been pimped? Bloomin' extraterrestrial rude boys! :mad:
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It's like this:
far_side_63007.jpg
 
Here's a new suggestion about Fermi's Paradox - the notion that the aggressive resource exploitation necessary to support an expansive interstellar civilization will override any discretion in dealing with others encountered along the way. Furthermore, humans are just as likely to wipe out others as any other so-called 'civilization' ...

Aliens Are Real, But Humans Will Probably Kill Them All, New Paper Says
... About 70 years ago, physicist Enrico Fermi looked up into the sky and asked a similar question: "Where is everybody?"

[W]hy haven't Earthlings heard a peep from these worlds? Where is everybody? Today, this question is better known as the Fermi paradox. ...

Now, Alexander Berezin, a theoretical physicist at the National Research University of Electronic Technology in Russia, has proposed a new answer to Fermi's paradox — but he doesn't think you're going to like it. Because, if Berezin's hypothesis is correct, it could mean a future for humanity that's "even worse than extinction."

"What if," Berezin wrote in a new paper posted March 27 to the preprint journal arxiv.org,"the first life that reaches interstellar travel capability necessarily eradicates all competition to fuel its own expansion?"

In other words, could humanity's quest to discover intelligent life be directly responsible for obliterating that life outright? What if we are, unwittingly, the universe's bad guys?

First in, last out

In the paper, Berezin called this answer to Fermi's paradox the "first in, last out" solution. Understanding it requires narrowing down the parameters of what makes "intelligent life" in the first place ...

For starters, it doesn't really matter what alien life looks like ...

But it does matter how this life behaves, Berezin wrote. To be considered relevant to Fermi's paradox, the extraterrestrial life we seek has to be able to grow, reproduce and somehow be detectable by humans. ...

Here's the catch: For a civilization to reach a point where it could effectively communicate across solar systems, it'd have to be on a path of unrestricted growth and expansion, Berezin wrote. And to walk this path, you'd have to step on a lot of lesser life-forms.

"I am not suggesting that a highly developed civilization would consciously wipe out other lifeforms," Berezin wrote. "Most likely, they simply won't notice, the same way a construction crew demolishes an anthill to build real estate because they lack incentive to protect it."

For example, a rogue AI's unrestricted drive for growth could lead it to populate the entire galaxy with clones of itself, "turning every solar system into a supercomputer," Berezin said. Looking for a motive in the AI's hostile takeover is useless, Berezin said — "all that matters is that it can [do it]." ...

The bad news for humans isn't that we might have to face off against a power-crazed race of intelligent beings. The bad news is, we might be that race. "We are the first to arrive at the [interstellar] stage," Berezin speculated, "and, most likely, will be the last to leave."

Stopping humans from accidentally obliterating all rival life-forms would require a total culture shift spurred by "forces far stronger than the free will of individuals," Berezin wrote. Given our species' impressive talent for expansion, however, such forces could be hard to muster.
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FULL STORY: https://www.livescience.com/62715-first-in-last-out-fermi-paradox-answer.html

PREPRINT OF BEREZIN'S PAPER: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1803.08425.pdf
 
Meanwhile ... This even more recent published paper describes how simulations based on the historical example of Easter Island's collapse suggest a probability that technological civilizations will deplete their resources before they can venture very far out into the cosmos.

Climate Change Killed the Aliens and It Will Probably Kill Us Too, New Simulation Suggests
... Did climate change already kill all the aliens we've been searching for?

According to astrophysicist Adam Frank, it's certainly a possibility — and whether or not humans are doomed to the same fate may already be out of our hands.

Frank, a professor of physics and astronomy at the University of Rochester in New York, is the lead author of a new paper published May 1 in the journal Astrobiology, which aims to take what Frank calls a "10,000 light-year" view of anthropogenic climate change. Using mathematical models based on the disappearance of a real-life lost civilization here on Earth (the one-time inhabitants of Easter Island), Frank and his colleagues simulated how various alien civilizations might rise and fall as they increasingly converted their planet's limited natural resources into energy. ...

"The laws of physics demand that any young population, building an energy-intensive civilization like ours, is going to have feedback on its planet," Frank said in a statement. "Seeing climate change in this cosmic context may give us better insight into what’s happening to us now and how to deal with it."

The results, as you might expect, were generally pretty grim. Out of four common "trajectories" for energy-intense civilizations, three ended in apocalypse. ...
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FULL STORY: https://www.livescience.com/62750-climate-change-killed-aliens-easter-island.html

PUBLISHED ARTICLE: https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1671
 
I like to think they have visited a long time ago...left....and come back every now and then to check on us primitive humans.


;)
 
EnolaGaia said:
Meanwhile ... This even more recent published paper describes how simulations based on the historical example of Easter Island's collapse suggest a probability that technological civilizations will deplete their resources before they can venture very far out into the cosmos.

PUBLISHED ARTICLE: https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/ast.2017.1671
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This reflects a problem that I have noticed while collaborating on the Orion's Arm scenario, which models the galactic history of Mankind (and mindkind) for the next ten thousand years. Galactic expansion can start long before the Solar System is full, and colonies can grow exponentially once they are established; but in every colony there comes a time when the optimum population is reached, and this exponential growth needs to be reined back to a steady-state situation. Colonies that don't rein in their growth do reach a state of collapse, surprisingly quickly.
 
eburacum said:
This reflects a problem that I have noticed while collaborating on the Orion's Arm scenario, which models the galactic history of Mankind (and mindkind) for the next ten thousand years. Galactic expansion can start long before the Solar System is full, and colonies can grow exponentially once they are established; but in every colony there comes a time when the optimum population is reached, and this exponential growth needs to be reined back to a steady-state situation. Colonies that don't rein in their growth do reach a state of collapse, surprisingly quickly.
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The misfits/unwanted from the colony pop off to the next inhabitable place, continuously. Groups are going to see collapse coming or in progress, causing themselves to choose to leave so they don't get stuck in the collapse.

Alternatively, civil war.
 
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kamalktk said:
The misfits/unwanted from the colony pop off to the next inhabitable place, continuously. Groups are going to see collapse coming or in progress, causing themselves to choose to leave so they don't get stuck in the collapse.
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This isn't really going to work, unless growth is tailored to exactly match emigration. If you try to export a population that is growing geometrically pretty soon you've filled up all the nearby stars, and emigrants need to travel much further; eventually they are leaving faster than the speed of light, which is probably impossible.
 
So...the problem is humans wanting to breed little ones all the time.....like those pesky cats in my neighborhood.

;)
 
eburacum said:
This isn't really going to work, unless growth is tailored to exactly match emigration. If you try to export a population that is growing geometrically pretty soon you've filled up all the nearby stars, and emigrants need to travel much further; eventually they are leaving faster than the speed of light, which is probably impossible.
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For the emigrants of a given planet, and at least early in the process, that's a problem for future generations.
 
Could be that they landed on the White House lawn and used the old line 'Take me to your leader'.

Then realised their big mistake and we haven't seen them since.

They were last heard muttering ' let's hope these dumbos can't track us home'.

INT21
 
^Interesting video.......the idea that aliens are far beyond us is nothing new in thinking about this aspect but it's also possible that line of thought is in error. We simply don't know. It;s more likely there is a wide range of intellect among species in the galaxy...assuming others have evolved.
 
dr wu said:
^Interesting video.......the idea that aliens are far beyond us is nothing new in thinking about this aspect but it's also possible that line of thought is in error. We simply don't know. It;s more likely there is a wide range of intellect among species in the galaxy...assuming others have evolved.
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I completely agree with you Dr. Wu. I secretly hope that Neil is wrong, and I think he may hope he is wrong as well...

On the other hand, it may explain why aliens seem determined to tag and monitor members of our species the way we tag and monitor migratory and endangered animals.
:dunno::tfoil::abduct::hide:
 
AlchoPwn said:
On the other hand, it may explain why aliens seem determined to tag and monitor members of our species the way we tag and monitor migratory and endangered animals.
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Maybe we are endangered animals?
 
AlchoPwn said:
I completely agree with you Dr. Wu. I secretly hope that Neil is wrong, and I think he may hope he is wrong as well...

On the other hand, it may explain why aliens seem determined to tag and monitor members of our species the way we tag and monitor migratory and endangered animals.
:dunno::tfoil::abduct::hide:
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Well...I am by no means convinced that anyone is being 'tagged and monitored' by aliens.
;)
 
AlchoPwn said:
... Note how this also plays total havoc with the "anthropic principle" in science.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropic_principle
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I have to take issue with this at face value ...

First off - the anthropic principle, in all its variant forms, is more a speculative or philosophical concept than a scientific one. Just because it arose among scientists doesn't mean it carries weight as a scientific theory. Most of the variants aren't falsifiable.

Second, nothing in Tyson's remarks conflicts with the original specification of the principle, which explicitly referred to 'intelligent observers' rather than to humans exclusively. This doesn't rule out the existence of other, more 'intelligent' species. It only suggests that any such other species are 'tuned to' or 'attuned by' the essential characteristics of the universe within which they are manifest, just as the original principle claimed humans are.

The insinuations of 'homo-primacy' or 'homo-centricity' as elements of the anthropic principle emerged as later twists on the original concept. These subsequent spins are of most value to (e.g.):

- theists looking to re-establish credence in some cosmic plan or authority affording humans privileged status, and / or

- physical scientists scavenging for allusions supportive of a multi-universe scenario resolving certain gaps or anomalies in their current theoretical dogmas.
 
If alien civilisations exist, they are mathematically likely to be far in advance of us, for reasons that have been discussed many times on this forum; that probably means we won't be able to fully comprehend them or their motives. But that doesn't mean they would not be interested in us. They could retain human scientific curiosity, and indeed amplify that trait to a very large degree. The instinct to classify is a very strong one, among all classes of animals; a predator will observe its prey, and classify it by its appearance and behaviour, and the hunted will watch apprehensively for signs of the hunter. The most successful species are the ones that can detect the most subtle signs of danger or of resources.

Advanced civilisations might retain the impulse to classify the encountered world, including us, and a sufficiently advanced civilisation could know our species better than we know ourselves, all the while retaining the qualities of 'unknowableness' that Tyson alludes to.

Of course, the fact that we humans are good at detecting subtle signs and patterns in the environment that might represent threats or the unknown, is also the reason that we sometimes see things that aren't there. This remains the most likely explanation for most Fortean phenomena.
 
oldrover said:
I've often thought that if aliens ever did or had found us, then they'd be unlikely to let their presence be known. I don't really buy this hostile alien idea, or the parallels to our dodgy treatment of less militarily advanced cultures. Which I'd say were largely based on avarice and commercial gain.

Firstly, by the time the aliens had the wherewithal to build a machine capable of reaching us and taking anything back in a time scale that in any way practical, they'd be so sophisticated as to not need anything we could possibly have to take. Except possibly lava bread.

Secondly, I do believe that by the time they'd have reached anything like that level of sophistication, they'd likely to pretty highly morally developed too.

I think probably if aliens were here they'd study us discreetly, the way we study nature. Otherwise the only glimpse they'd have of humanity would either be running away or standing there mouth open pointing upward.
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The 20th century saw astonishing developments in technology, which would seem like magic to our ancestors from even just a few centuries ago. The 20th century was also the bloodiest in humankind's history.
Technological advancement does not necessarily go hand in hand with moral enlightenment.
 
There is also the distance to consider. Assuming for the moment that warp drive is simply a convenient fiction to make sci-fi books work, and that Einstein was generally correct, to achieve interstellar travel would really require some entity to whom years were as days or weeks to us. I don't really buy the idea of sleeper ships.
 
Cochise said:
There is also the distance to consider. Assuming for the moment that warp drive is simply a convenient fiction to make sci-fi books work, and that Einstein was generally correct, to achieve interstellar travel would really require some entity to whom years were as days or weeks to us. I don't really buy the idea of sleeper ships.
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But travelling near-luminal velocities would render the journey shorter from the perspectives of the travellers. Their main concern might be the decades that would pass on their home planet during their voyage. Perhaps finding individuals with the spirit to explore a new world in spite of all they'd be leaving behind wouldn't be difficult, but convincing a civilisation to invest in such a long term venture would pose difficulties. Perhaps there's a story or novel to be written about the first pioneers arriving at a new planet, after only a decade to them, only to discover that in the centuries that have passed on their home world warp drive was developed and their destination colonised.
 
PeteByrdie said:
... Perhaps there's a story or novel to be written about the first pioneers arriving at a new planet, after only a decade to them, only to discover that in the centuries that have passed on their home world warp drive was developed and their destination colonised.
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It was written over 70 years ago ...

'Far Centaurus' by A. E. Van Vogt, first published in 1944.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Far_Centaurus
 
PeteByrdie said:
But travelling near-luminal velocities would render the journey shorter from the perspectives of the travellers. Their main concern might be the decades that would pass on their home planet during their voyage. Perhaps finding individuals with the spirit to explore a new world in spite of all they'd be leaving behind wouldn't be difficult, but convincing a civilisation to invest in such a long term venture would pose difficulties. Perhaps there's a story or novel to be written about the first pioneers arriving at a new planet, after only a decade to them, only to discover that in the centuries that have passed on their home world warp drive was developed and their destination colonised.
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Agreed. Although in my mind that's one reason why you'd need a long lived race, to ensure some continuity 'at home'. But even travelling at near light speed borders on the impossible for humanoids - it would take forever to work up to it at G forces we could handle. (although G-Force wouldn't be the applicable term, there being no G in space!)

In reality, I suspect we are alone. Intelligence isn't necessary for survival if you are fast and have big teeth, you are poisonous or well armoured. Our planet had to go through hundreds of specific events in exactly the right order to arrive at us. The universe may be teeming with life but intelligent life , not so much. And given the very brief period our civilisation has lasted and the high probability we will one way or another destroy it, other intelligent life may simply not overlap with us.
 
..If alien civilisations exist, they are mathematically likely to be far in advance of us, .... ...They could retain human scientific curiosity,

This seems to imply that you believe they are of human origin. How else can they retain human scientific curiosity ?

INT21
 
INT21 said:
..If alien civilisations exist, they are mathematically likely to be far in advance of us, .... ...They could retain human scientific curiosity,

This seems to imply that you believe they are of human origin. How else can they retain human scientific curiosity ?

INT21
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Inhuman scientific curiosity. To be avoided!
 
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