Why Haven't Aliens Contacted Us Yet? (Fermi Paradox)

[gattino]

In relation to ufos and connected phenomena, surely the biggest unjustified assumption is that "they" - assuming there to be a they - are from "out there" and must have traveled across space. We could posit at least half a dozen conceivable, if fantastic, notions of the occupants of such craft and "men from another planet" would be firmly in a minority of one. All the other potential explanations are variants of them being from here and sharing planet earth with us. (Travelers from the future. Travelers from the past. Interlopers from a parallel earth. Inhabitants of some other kind of "other dimension". Another species of earth born human somehow hidden from our senses. The craft themselves are some kind of living natural phenomenon. Spiritual/demonic/consciousness based entities. Tulpas.) In all of the aforementioned scenarios the reasons they haven't been in touch may be as simple as either they have, or they can't, or don't know how. Rather like the purported communications between the dead and the living.

In terms of the presumed to be out there other planetary aliens, with or without the ufo element, if they really are so advanced - i mean beyond our comprehension advanced - the response might be to ask why we've not contacted the ants. We may watch them and mess around with them a little, but communication is meaningless ...and do they even comprehend our presence?

 

[Jim]

That is because there the speed is constant. If in a medium, the light can be slower than usual, depending on the medium.

I thought I said that "bit more technical? Was an EE, so maybe my physics based explanations don't make sense to persons w/o an engineering - scientific background? apologies for confusion. Free space in a vacuum has a permittivity of 1.0, results no delay. Material with higher permittivity's results in more delay. Free space is so close to the ideal of "free space in a vacuum", that the difference is generally nil so light isn't delayed as it propagates thru air (free space).

 

[AlchoPwn]

In terms of the presumed to be out there other planetary aliens, with or without the ufo element, if they really are so advanced - i mean beyond our comprehension advanced - the response might be to ask why we've not contacted the ants. We may watch them and mess around with them a little, but communication is meaningless ...and do they even comprehend our presence?

According to Buddhists, we (or at least "enlightened" humans), have indeed contacted the ants. For example one time Bhodidarma had been meditating in a cave and when asked about what he had been doing said he had been listening to the ants scream. Interestingly, we have a pretty good idea about ant language now link.

 

[Robbrent]

Its funny that we expect other lifeforms to have the same human wants as us, perhaps they don't have the inclination to communicate with us

Or the fact (as is my belief) that there not really out there at all, in terms of flesh and blood, and they know all they need to know about us already because they have been observing and nudging us throughout human history, perhaps we are an experiment and they are just observing the results

 

[eburacum]

One might even ask, has the Fermi Paradox been disproven by things such as the tictac footage?

Not really. If there really are aliens flying around in our skies, the question becomes 'well, why aren't they talking to us?'

The real paradox of the Fermi Paradox is 'Why aren't they us?' If there have been advanced alien civilisations in the galaxy, they should have been here millions of years ago. We should already be part of an advanced galactic civilisation, and we would be learning galactic history in our schools. We are not, hence the paradox.

 

[feinman]

I'd suggest that we have an inflated view of ourselves --and we are being treated like dangerous squirrels, and the paradox is resolved because a portion of certain types of life did not destroy themselves as they developed, and have an interest in us because we are like a terrarium for them in a relatively deserted place. We couldn't stand constant widespread contact anyway (can barely deal with each other, just flip on tele). It would cause massive destabilization of our civilization, so contact is kept to a constant level without a tipping point being achieved.

 

[AlchoPwn]

Not really. If there really are aliens flying around in our skies, the question becomes 'well, why aren't they talking to us?'

Perhaps they don't want to? I mean, do you want violent cavemen listening to your phone conversations? There is every chance that they are communicating with some people already, but that they are keeping it secret.

The real paradox of the Fermi Paradox is 'Why aren't they us?' If there have been advanced alien civilisations in the galaxy, they should have been here millions of years ago. We should already be part of an advanced galactic civilisation, and we would be learning galactic history in our schools. We are not, hence the paradox.

"Ancient Alien theorists say yes"

But seriously, perhaps they are treating us according to a first contact protocol that discourages interference? It would make sense for any society that wanted to establish a relationship based on trust to do so. I would imagine that joining a galactic civilization would take centuries of negotiation.

 

[eburacum]

Yes, there are many possible solutions for the paradox, but none of them are entirely satisfying, so we can't really say we've solved it yet.

 

[Robbrent]

In my opinion the paradox is not valid, because it's assuming that whatever the phenomena is, it has the same wants and need of humans,, its a very human centric way of thinking

 

[FrKadash]

The whole Keel/Vallée concept of ultra-terrestrial aliens is my rough personal perspective, it allows us to see the world as a really wonderful and bizarre fortean place, filled with Gibbering Insanity.
When anyone looks into Ufology with the idea that aliens are from other planets, if they read enough accounts they must stop at some point, and think 'something doesn't add up here'. The accounts in the archives can't all be hoaxes and can't all be lies, and they can't all be true. But a pattern does emerge, one which comes across as suggesting ‘they’ are not physical, but like poltergeist phenomena they can interact with the physical world under certain circumstances, and create apparition forms. It’s one perspective that allows for everything, and it’s a truly out there way looking at the original question.

 

[Mikefule]

The two most common science fiction motives for alien empires are (1) territorial expansion for domination of neighbours; and (2) for extraction of resources. The two motives usually overlap.

These ideas are no doubt derived from human historical behaviour. Territorial expansion for domination of neighbours has been seen many times. Possibly the most obvious example of expansion for the purpose of extracting resources is the European colonisation of the Americas.

On a single planet, if you expand your territory, the length of your borders increases. The shortest possible border for any given area of territory is if the territory is perfectly circular. If the territory is irregular in shape, and especially if it is long and thin, the length of the border is greater in relation to the area defended. Put simply: for defence, keep your borders short by expanding your territory in a circle around your starting point.

In space, the same principle applies, except you are working in 3 dimensions. The smallest border for volume of territory controlled is when the territory is spherical. Therefore, a spacefaring empire would be well advised to expand in a more or less spherical bubble centred on the starting point.

As the volume of territory expands proportionately to the CUBE of the radius of the sphere, the empire gains a lot of territory for a fairly short extension of the radius of its territory.

(Of course, most of that territory is empty space, but for simplicity, assume a fairly even distribution of habitable worlds within any region of space.)

Aside from defence of the territory, communication with the outer reaches of the empire is also easier if the empire is more or less spherical with home at the centre.

Now look at the second motive for expansion, which is extraction of resources.

If you are only extracting resources from the newly conquered/occupied/discovered territory at the edge of the empire, the opportunities for extraction of resources increase substantially more slowly than the size of the empire you are trying to supply. Your "coal face" increases according to the SQUARE of the radius of your empire; but your demand increases according to the CUBE of the radius of your empire.

Therefore, if you optimise the shape of your empire (spherical) for defending the borders, and for fastest internal communications, you are working against your other objective of extracting sufficient resources to supply your empire. Make your radius twice as big, you get 4 times as much border/coal face, but 8 times as much volume/population/demand. It becomes self limiting.

So, if we assume that aliens behave like humans have historically, but on a larger scale, and in 3 dimensions — and with longer term consistency than we have ever achieved — the arithmetic shows that the rate of expansion of an alien empire would be slow, and probably self limiting.

What may be more likely to happen is what happened with the Romans. They expanded and took slaves and other resources from the newly conquered lands. As the empire's demands for resources increased, they needed to continue expanding. Their supply chains and communications became more difficult. Eventually they could not "steal" enough to supply the new demands they had created. This led to internal tensions, rebellions, fracturing of the empire, and a withdrawal from the most far flung territories, leaving the formerly occupied territories in a long period known as the "dark ages". (Now referred to as "early mediaeval".)

if this happened to the Romans in 2 dimensions, how much more likely would it be for aliens expanding their territory in 3 dimensions?

The theory of an advanced civilisation simply expanding consistently and relentlessly until it inevitably reaches us — either physically, or with communications signals — is simplistic and, I think, untenable.

 

[Coypu]

Cosmic Capitalism...

 

[AlchoPwn]

"Ancient Alien theorists say yes"

BTW, in case anyone is ever wondering, if I ever use this quote, it is as a death knock to the argument I am pretending to support. I personally view this quote as a blanket condemnation, to the point where if my GF wants to go out and I don't feel like it I say "Ancient Alien theorists say yes", or when a politician says something I vehemently disagree with. I also abbreviate it to AATSY.

 

[Naughty_Felid]

What may be more likely to happen is what happened with the Romans. They expanded and took slaves and other resources from the newly conquered lands. As the empire's demands for resources increased, they needed to continue expanding. Their supply chains and communications became more difficult. Eventually they could not "steal" enough to supply the new demands they had created. This led to internal tensions, rebellions, fracturing of the empire, and a withdrawal from the most far flung territories, leaving the formerly occupied territories in a long period known as the "dark ages". (Now referred to as "early mediaeval".)

if this happened to the Romans in 2 dimensions, how much more likely would it be for aliens expanding their territory in 3 dimensions?

Good post. The Romans attempted to "franchise' their way of life but failed largely meaning they needed to try and maintain a huge standing army. This couldn't be sustained causing, amongst other things, the fall of the Roman empire.

The Brits - learned this and tried to leave the locals in power and just take all the profit - with implied threats if their business was messed with they'd step in. This again died as people want to run things themselves and rightly so. Also, two costly wars put the final nail in the coffin.

Both empires died.

 

[eburacum]

Because we live in a flat galaxy, the three-dimensional expansion of an 'empire' can only extend for approximately a thousand light years in all directions. Once the expansion reaches the top and bottom of the galactic disk the expansion will stop in those directions, then the expansion can only spread out in the galactic plane. This should make galactic historiography slightly less complex.

The big limiting factor is the time scale; events that occur a thousand light years away would take at least a thousand years to affect any particular location, unless faster-than-light travel is possible. And that opens a whole new can of worms.

 

[Mikefule]

Because we live in a flat galaxy, the three-dimensional expansion of an 'empire' can only extend for approximately a thousand light years in all directions. Once the expansion reaches the top and bottom of the galactic disk the expansion will stop in those directions, then the expansion can only spread out in the galactic plane. This should make galactic historiography slightly less complex.

The big limiting factor is the time scale; events that occur a thousand light years away would take at least a thousand years to affect any particular location, unless faster-than-light travel is possible. And that opens a whole new can of worms.

Yes, the interesting word is "only".

If it takes only a thousand years for light to travel the distance, that is only a tiny fraction of how long it would take to explore and colonise that distance.

No human empire has yet lasted only a thousand years, at least not in a consistent and unified form.

 

[AlchoPwn]

No human empire has yet lasted only a thousand years, at least not in a consistent and unified form.

It is more correct to say that no Dynasty has lasted a thousand years. A number of Empires have in fact lasted that long, just not with the same ruling house.

 

[kamalktk]

They can't get out of their home system, much like us. The machinery needed to do so can not survive in working order over the necessary time scale.

/I find this a depressing thought

 

[Naughty_Felid]

They can't get out of their home system, much like us. The machinery needed to do so can not survive in working order over the necessary time scale.

/I find this a depressing thought

Good point - but how would you know?

 

[kamalktk]

Good point - but how would you know?

It's a guesstimate based on how long it interstellar travel is going to take and the need for the machinery to be kept in working order (including hardened against stellar radiation) for that length of time. I'm thinking of things like the Long Now clock where even making a mechanical clock that can last for 10,000 years is a massive undertaking. Then take the difficulty in making a simple clock last for 10,000 years and extrapolate it to something the complexity of a spaceship lasting for the length of an interstellar voyage. "Manned" or not, even machinery/computing power will have to be able to survive the journey and deal with things like stellar radiation.

 

[Naughty_Felid]

https://www.theguardian.com/science...mber-of-contactable-alien-civilisations-is-36

They may not be little green men. They may not arrive in a vast spaceship. But according to new calculations there could be more than 30 intelligent civilisations in our galaxy today capable of communicating with others.

Experts say the work not only offers insights into the chances of life beyond Earth but could shed light on our own future and place in the cosmos.

“I think it is extremely important and exciting because for the first time we really have an estimate for this number of active intelligent, communicating civilisations that we potentially could contact and find out there is other life in the universe – something that has been a question for thousands of years and is still not answered,” said Christopher Conselice, a professor of astrophysics at the University of Nottingham and a co-author of the research.

 

[eburacum]

The uncertainties on any one of the terms of the Drake equation would make this answer meaningless. In fact the values of several of the terms are completely unknown; we don't know how often life emerges on a planet, we don't know how often intelligence evolves on a life-bearing planet, we don't know how long a civilisation can persist for, and we don't know how often an intelligent civilisation creates a daughter colony (a term that most versions of the Drake Equation ignore). In short - it's bollocks.

 

[EnolaGaia]

Here are the bibliographic details and abstract for the Nottingham study ...

The Astrobiological Copernican Weak and Strong Limits for Intelligent Life
Tom Westby and Christopher J. Conselice
Published 2020 June 15 • © 2020.
The Astrophysical Journal, Volume 896, Number 1

Abstract
We present a cosmic perspective on the search for life and examine the likely number of Communicating Extra-Terrestrial Intelligent (CETI) civilizations in our Galaxy by utilizing the latest astrophysical information. Our calculation involves Galactic star formation histories, metallicity distributions, and the likelihood of stars hosting Earth-like planets in their habitable zones, under specific assumptions which we describe as the Astrobiological Copernican Weak and Strong conditions. These assumptions are based on the one situation in which intelligent, communicative life is known to exist—on our own planet. This type of life has developed in a metal-rich environment and has taken roughly 5 Gyr to do so. We investigate the possible number of CETI civilizations based on different scenarios. At one extreme is the Weak Astrobiological Copernican scenario—such that a planet forms intelligent life sometime after 5 Gyr, but not earlier. The other is the Strong Astrobiological Copernican scenario in which life must form between 4.5 and 5.5 Gyr, as on Earth. In the Strong scenario (under the strictest set of assumptions), we find there should be at least 36 {-32 / +175} civilizations within our Galaxy: this is a lower limit, based on the assumption that the average lifetime, L, of a communicating civilization is 100 yr (since we know that our own civilization has had radio communications for this time). If spread uniformly throughout the Galaxy this would imply that the nearest CETI is at most 17,000 {-10,000 / +33,600} lt-yr away and most likely hosted by a low-mass M-dwarf star, likely far surpassing our ability to detect it for the foreseeable future, and making interstellar communication impossible. Furthermore, the likelihood that the host stars for this life are solar-type stars is extremely small and most would have to be M dwarfs, which may not be stable enough to host life over long timescales. We furthermore explore other scenarios and explain the likely number of CETI there are within the Galaxy based on variations of our assumptions.

SOURCE: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4357/ab8225

 

[EnolaGaia]

The uncertainties on any one of the terms of the Drake equation would make this answer meaningless. In fact the values of several of the terms are completely unknown; we don't know how often life emerges on a planet, we don't know how often intelligence evolves on a life-bearing planet, we don't know how long a civilisation can persist for, and we don't know how often an intelligent civilisation creates a daughter colony (a term that most versions of the Drake Equation ignore). In short - it's bollocks.

I'm skeptical about the degree to which this study adds anything other than an updated exercise in trying to apply the Drake Equation.

I'm wary of this research in light of its slavish reliance upon the Drake Equation and its explicit use of us (our example) as the benchmark for evaluating everything.

On the other hand ... I do appreciate the authors' inclusion of factors relating to detectability - especially qualifying the window of opportunity for broadcasting signals as a period bounded by our example (i.e., circa 100 years and counting).

 

[ramonmercado]

No news is bad news.

On Earth, civilizations have limited lifetimes.

Roman civilization, for instance, lasted less than a thousand years from the founding of its republic to the fall of its empire (after a long decline). In the New World, Maya civilization spanned roughly two millennia (maybe a little longer depending on when you date its beginning). In the late Bronze Age, the Greek Mycenaean civilization lasted a mere five centuries or so. As for American civilization (as in the United States of), at the rate things are going it won’t last even that long.

For some reason, civilization is not a self-perpetuating state of affairs on this planet. And perhaps not on other planets, either. In fact, limits to civilization lifetimes may explain why extraterrestrial aliens have not yet communicated with Earthlings. A new analysis suggests that the entire Milky Way galaxy currently houses only a few dozen worlds equipped with sufficiently sophisticated technology to send us a message. They are probably scattered at such great distances that any signals sent our way haven’t had time to get here. And by the time a signal arrives, there may be nobody here around to hear it.

“We may imagine a galaxy in which intelligent life is widespread, but communication unlikely,” write Tom Westby and Christopher Conselice in the June 10 Astrophysical Journal.

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/seti-alien-intelligence-self-destructive-civilizations

 

[Naughty_Felid]

No news is bad news.

On Earth, civilizations have limited lifetimes.

Roman civilization, for instance, lasted less than a thousand years from the founding of its republic to the fall of its empire (after a long decline). In the New World, Maya civilization spanned roughly two millennia (maybe a little longer depending on when you date its beginning). In the late Bronze Age, the Greek Mycenaean civilization lasted a mere five centuries or so. As for American civilization (as in the United States of), at the rate things are going it won’t last even that long.

For some reason, civilization is not a self-perpetuating state of affairs on this planet. And perhaps not on other planets, either. In fact, limits to civilization lifetimes may explain why extraterrestrial aliens have not yet communicated with Earthlings. A new analysis suggests that the entire Milky Way galaxy currently houses only a few dozen worlds equipped with sufficiently sophisticated technology to send us a message. They are probably scattered at such great distances that any signals sent our way haven’t had time to get here. And by the time a signal arrives, there may be nobody here around to hear it.

“We may imagine a galaxy in which intelligent life is widespread, but communication unlikely,” write Tom Westby and Christopher Conselice in the June 10 Astrophysical Journal.

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/seti-alien-intelligence-self-destructive-civilizations

Again the assumption that Alien life is all mammalian-based and following our route. Also, civilizations didn't die they just changed. We still have lots of people living quite comfortably in those areas formally controlled by the Romans, Mayans, Greeks, British, etc...

 

[ramonmercado]

Again the assumption that Alien life is all mammalian-based and following our route. Also, civilizations didn't die they just changed. We still have lots of people living quite comfortably in those areas formally controlled by the Romans, Mayans, Greeks, British, etc...

I fear the Crystalline Entity will be the first to meet us.

 

[packshaud]

The unknown factor that avoids colonization of the universe by extraterrestrials has a name nowadays, great filter. Wikipedia can be consulted about it. [ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter ]

I am afraid that I found a possible candidate: nuclear fusion.

Nuclear fusion cannot be clean, because of thermodynamics. It is impossible to convert all energy into work; a small portion of it is always not used, becoming what is called waste heat. Compounded growth in energy consumption, required for economic growth, would also compound the waste heat. With 2% annual growth rates, some millennia would be enough for the waste heat to melt a planet; much less than that, to kill its biosphere.

No saving measures would work, because of a concept called tragedy of the commons. An alien group using less energy would only free waste heat quota for its rivals. Saving in a growth environment is maladaptative, in short term; long term, literally everyone would be dead.

 

[AlchoPwn]

Cosmic Capitalism...

Cosmic Communism.

 

[Naughty_Felid]

No news is bad news.

On Earth, civilizations have limited lifetimes.

Roman civilization, for instance, lasted less than a thousand years from the founding of its republic to the fall of its empire (after a long decline). In the New World, Maya civilization spanned roughly two millennia (maybe a little longer depending on when you date its beginning). In the late Bronze Age, the Greek Mycenaean civilization lasted a mere five centuries or so. As for American civilization (as in the United States of), at the rate things are going it won’t last even that long.

For some reason, civilization is not a self-perpetuating state of affairs on this planet. And perhaps not on other planets, either. In fact, limits to civilization lifetimes may explain why extraterrestrial aliens have not yet communicated with Earthlings. A new analysis suggests that the entire Milky Way galaxy currently houses only a few dozen worlds equipped with sufficiently sophisticated technology to send us a message. They are probably scattered at such great distances that any signals sent our way haven’t had time to get here. And by the time a signal arrives, there may be nobody here around to hear it.

“We may imagine a galaxy in which intelligent life is widespread, but communication unlikely,” write Tom Westby and Christopher Conselice in the June 10 Astrophysical Journal.

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/seti-alien-intelligence-self-destructive-civilizations

Once you mastered a planet and can move off-world with relative ease it might make a difference to an empire's longevity.

As I've said before each earth empire failed usually due to resource-management issues. Whether that be wealth, manpower, internal-schisms.

Or empires were crushed because they did not have the technology to overcome environmental catastrophes.

Does not mean this will always be the case. That's why I found "The culture" by Iain M. Banks really fun.