Zoonotic Epidemics: H5N1 ('Bird Flu'), SARS, MERS & COVID-19

James_H

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So the Forteana Forums is likely to be blessed with a surfeit of us three for a while!
My school's policy of forcing us to take unpaid leave for two weeks has been reported on in the press and has been specifically singled out for criticism by the education ministry. As it should be. Time to get a new job, if there are any going.
 

Yithian

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This is the most interesting thing I've read on the subject over the past few days:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044

In short, within the limited scope of this study, a huge number of people were infected in the hospital itself.

It points to poor practice and/or the hospital being utterly overwhelmed.

South Korea has had twenty-seven cases so far, four of which have made complete recoveries and been released. The last time I checked, none of them were thought currently to be in a critical condition.

If the cases come in drips and drabs like this, the 'contact tracing' and quarantine is exhaustive, incoming passengers are monitored and you don't have anybody acting like an assclown, there is some hope (from what I've seen so far) that first-world countries of secondary infection might be able to limit the number of cases to a manageable number. [Edit: 8 cases confirmed in the UK, this is the crucial stage].

In this case, it was the 'poor start' that has doomed the Chinese.

I take no pleasure from that, but I hope other nations learn from their mistakes.

India and most of Africa are the concerns for the future.
 

blessmycottonsocks

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Corporate email hit my in-box just before lunch.
With growing public concern over Coronavirus infection, they have taken the initiative to have anti-microbial hand sanitiser available on each floor of the office block, plus a "catch it, bin it, kill it" poster campaign.
This is in Reading BTW.
 

Yithian

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In short, within the limited scope of this study, a huge number of people were infected in the hospital itself.

It points to poor practice and/or the hospital being utterly overwhelmed.
Just to emphasise, this is the key section:

Of the 138 patients, 57 (41.3%) were presumed to have been infected in hospital, including 17 patients (12.3%) who were already hospitalized for other reasons and 40 health care workers (29%). Of the hospitalized patients, 7 patients were from the surgical department, 5 were from internal medicine, and 5 were from the oncology department. Of the infected health care workers, 31 (77.5%) worked on general wards, 7 (17.5%) in the emergency department, and 2 (5%) in the ICU. One patient in the current study presented with abdominal symptoms and was admitted to the surgical department. More than 10 health care workers in this department were presumed to have been infected by this patient. Patient-to-patient transmission also was presumed to have occurred, and at least 4 hospitalized patients in the same ward were infected, and all presented with atypical abdominal symptoms. One of the 4 patients had fever and was diagnosed as having nCoV infection during hospitalization. Then, the patient was isolated. Subsequently, the other 3 patients in the same ward had fever, presented with abdominal symptoms, and were diagnosed as having nCoV infection.

These patients were all admitted to Zhongnan Hospital (of Wuhan University) between January 1 and January 28, 2020

To be clear, the first case (retrospectively diagnosed) was on 1 Dec. 2019 and Chinese state media were reporting the outbreak as a new virus by 12 Dec. At this stage, the number of infected patients is thought to have been doubling every 7.5 days. On 1 Jan., when this study began, the Hunan Seafood Market was closed for disinfection and everybody knew that a 'new virus of unknown origin' was abroad, yet a hospital near the epicentre of the outbreak was (apparently) not operating effective precautions to screen and compartmentalise incoming patients until certain diagnosis.

Dates Here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timel...irus_outbreak_in_December_2019_–_January_2020
 

Yithian

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If the cases come in drips and drabs like this, the 'contact tracing' and quarantine is exhaustive, incoming passengers are monitored and you don't have anybody acting like an assclown, there is some hope (from what I've seen so far) that first-world countries of secondary infection might be able to limit the number of cases to a manageable number.
Four more people have tested positive for the coronavirus in the UK this morning, including two health care workers. The new cases take the total number of infections in England to eight.

It comes as the Telegraph has learned that a quarantined British patient threatening to abscond from coronavirus facilities has forced the Health Secretary to tighten quarantine rules.

Source:
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/02/10/monday-evening-news-briefing-coronavirus-fears-close-gp-surgery
 

EnolaGaia

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Chinese authorities have given the Wuhan coronavirus a new official name ...
Wuhan coronavirus gets a new official name

China’s National Health Commission gave the Wuhan coronavirus a temporary name at a news conference on Saturday.

For weeks, the rapidly-spreading virus has only been known by the name of the city where it originated, something which locals in Wuhan have found frustrating and stigmatizing.

Chinese officials said that the virus would temporarily be named the Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia, or NCP.

There is no news on when an official final title for the virus will be designated.
SOURCE: https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/...:+rss/cnn_topstories+(RSS:+CNN+-+Top+Stories)
 

Megadeth1977

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God sake I wish the media would stop with the fear mongering and blatant lies and the virus is not an imminent it threat it's moderate and China shutting down city's is over bored.
 

blessmycottonsocks

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God sake I wish the media would stop with the fear mongering and blatant lies and the virus is not an imminent it threat it's moderate and China shutting down city's is over bored.
An estimated 10.5 million Chinese travelled around the world for their New Year holidays.
Isn't it better to err on the side of caution rather than demonstrate a blasé complacency about Coronavirus?
 

Yithian

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A second medical centre in Brighton (near the first) has closed. The reasons are not yet clear, but speculation posits a connection.
 

Megadeth1977

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An estimated 10.5 million Chinese travelled around the world for their New Year holidays.
Isn't it better to err on the side of caution rather than demonstrate a blasé complacency about Coronavirus?
So you want mass panic plus panic buying and the flu kills more people yearly and this virus has and I'm not being complacent.
 

Xanatic*

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You do recall the spanish flu, right? It also got so bad because of all the people returning home.
 

Yithian

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So you want mass panic plus panic buying and the flu kills more people yearly and this virus has and I'm not being complacent.
I'd say simply that now is a time for concern, not panic. It's a classic case of prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

What does is cost me to wash my hands several times a day, monitor my own health diligently and report it and stay at home if I get sick with the reported symptoms?

When is it ever time for panic?
 

blessmycottonsocks

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So you want mass panic plus panic buying and the flu kills more people yearly and this virus has and I'm not being complacent.
No, but I am glad that we have a free press that isn't under pressure from the state to suppress news about a global threat.

When the threat is mitigated by a vaccine or other measures is when I will allow myself to become bored by the news coverage.
 
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