Zoonotic Epidemics: H5N1 ('Bird Flu'), SARS, MERS & COVID-19

James_H

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I was at my doctor's surgery today handing in my repeat prescription and there was a sign on the door (printed out with red text, no less) saying (I can't remember the exact wordage) but if you have recently been to China, Japan, some other places (I really didn't read it fully) then "STOP" and "DO NOT ENTER THE SURGERY".
Hope it's in Chinese too.
 

Yithian

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More Arseclownery:

The first person diagnosed with coronavirus in London turned up unannounced at a hospital in an Uber taxi after falling ill.

[...]

Lewisham hospital on Thursday confirmed the unnamed patient had not followed public health officials’ advice and had simply “self-presented” at its A&E unit on Sunday afternoon.

She did not arrive by ambulance or her own private vehicle and went straight to the A&E reception desk to report her symptoms – both clear breaches of guidance aimed at stopping the spread of the virus.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...onavirus-patient-turned-up-hospital-uber-taxi

At least she didn't take the Tube...
 

Schrodinger's Zebra

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Hope it's in Chinese too.
Nope, just in English. To be fair, any Chinese people around here wouldn't get very far at the doctors anyway, if they couldn't speak English. The doctors aren't multilingual.



More Arseclownery:

The first person diagnosed with coronavirus in London turned up unannounced at a hospital in an Uber taxi after falling ill.

[...]

Lewisham hospital on Thursday confirmed the unnamed patient had not followed public health officials’ advice and had simply “self-presented” at its A&E unit on Sunday afternoon.

She did not arrive by ambulance or her own private vehicle and went straight to the A&E reception desk to report her symptoms – both clear breaches of guidance aimed at stopping the spread of the virus.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...onavirus-patient-turned-up-hospital-uber-taxi

At least she didn't take the Tube...
Oh for... why are some people so stupid?
 

Min Bannister

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That is annoying. But then, you go shopping, sneeze into your hand, then grab your trolley's handle, finish shopping, put your trolley in the car park for the next unsuspecting shopper to use. Or you sneeze into your hand, abandon your trolley, run to the toilets to wash your hands, touching door handles along the way. Or you carry sanitizer with you. Or you accept that flu viruses are going to go through the population as they've always done. I don't think there are easy solutions.
Easy solution - sneeze into your elbow.
 

Min Bannister

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Since we were talking about the effect the virus might have on the healthcare system, here is some real info on the actual effect of the virus on healthcare workers in China from the BBC.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51501005

Chinese officials have given figures for health workers infected with coronavirus, amid concerns about shortages of protective equipment.

Six health workers have died and 1,716 have been infected since the outbreak, they said.
"The duties of medical workers at the front are indeed extremely heavy; their working and resting circumstances are limited, the psychological pressures are great, and the risk of infection is high," Mr Zeng said, quoted by Reuters.

Local authorities have struggled to provide protective equipment such as respiratory masks, goggles and protective suits in hospitals in the area.

One doctor told AFP news agency that he and 16 colleagues were showing possible symptoms of the virus.

Another medical worker said she and more than 100 other staff at her hospital had been quarantined. A further 30 had been confirmed to have been infected there out of a staff of 500 she told CNN.

On 7 February the plight of medical workers was highlighted by the death of Li Wenliang, a doctor at Wuhan Central Hospital who had tried to issue the first warning about the virus on 30 December.
 

ChasFink

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Along the lines of the panics that have led to massive buying of face masks, sanitizers, and bleach - and avoidance of a certain Mexican beer:

My campus has had a few power outages the last few days. As a precaution, we didn't lift the security gate in front of our front desk - it's an absolutely Herculean task to lower when the power is out. It didn't keep us from serving students when the power was on, since the gate is a series of horizontal bars about two inches apart, held together by vertical links every eight inches or so: plenty of room to see each other or pass papers through. The other day a student asked if we had the gate down to protect against the virus.

Of course it is well known that coronaviruses can be intercepted by a filter that has a less-than-two-inch spacing in at least one direction.
 

Yithian

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That is fucking insane, is the Korean govt/culture more intrusive generally than the British?
Here's a similar method that might not fly in the UK:

Passengers from mainland China, Hong Kong and Macao are now required to use separate arrival counters at international airports across the country and must write a special quarantine report, filling out health questionnaires to check whether they have a fever or respiratory problems. They must also download a mobile application to report their health status every day.

SOURCE:
https://m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200215001552320

Who knows how reliable self-reporting can be, but the implication is that if you don't log-in and register as healthy each day, the authorities will arrive at your door--they have your phone details after all.

In general, they've done well: twenty-eight cases identified (thousands tested), but the crucial point is that the KCDC has established the infection route to every case--at least to the point at which the disease entered the country (from China, Singapore and Japan) and new cases have dried up as this week has progressed (none for four days now).
 

Yithian

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There are now 218 cases of Coronavirus on the Diamond Princess cruise ship docked in Yokohama.

It would have been far better to evacuate the ship and isolate each person for their fourteen-day quarantine than to leave them all on board.

There's clearly a good chance that they're infecting one another through the air-conditioning or drainage of somesuch.

Fingers crossed that nobody dies.
 

Min Bannister

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There are now 218 cases of Coronavirus on the Diamond Princess cruise ship docked in Yokohama.

It would have been far better to evacuate the ship and isolate each person for their fourteen-day quarantine than to leave them all on board.

There's clearly a good chance that they're infecting one another through the air-conditioning or drainage of somesuch.

Fingers crossed that nobody dies.
Given that cruises tend to attract older people it seems unlikely. :( At best, those people are going to get what sounds like a pretty unpleasant and distressing disease. It seems rather cruel not to do what you have suggested and rather just leave everyone to catch it.
 

Xanatic*

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Are they likely to even have the facilities for quarantining 300+ people seperately?
 
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Are they likely to even have the facilities for quarantining 300+ people seperately?
Indded, maybe quarantine sick and healthy separately, moving people "over" as soon as they had symptoms? That said, that may be essentially what they where doing on ship, though at least they'd be in separate buildings.
 

Schrodinger's Zebra

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Here's a similar method that might not fly in the UK:

Passengers from mainland China, Hong Kong and Macao are now required to use separate arrival counters at international airports across the country and must write a special quarantine report, filling out health questionnaires to check whether they have a fever or respiratory problems. They must also download a mobile application to report their health status every day.

SOURCE:
https://m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200215001552320

Who knows how reliable self-reporting can be, but the implication is that if you don't log-in and register as healthy each day, the authorities will arrive at your door--they have your phone details after all.

In general, they've done well: twenty-eight cases identified (thousands tested), but the crucial point is that the KCDC has established the infection route to every case--at least to the point at which the disease entered the country (from China, Singapore and Japan) and new cases have dried up as this week has progressed (none for four days now).
What if one doesn't have a mobile phone (or at least one which can use 'apps' ? Hmmm.

Or what if one's phone signal goes out, or the app glitches and doesn't send the report?

So many what-ifs.


There are now 218 cases of Coronavirus on the Diamond Princess cruise ship docked in Yokohama.

It would have been far better to evacuate the ship and isolate each person for their fourteen-day quarantine than to leave them all on board.

There's clearly a good chance that they're infecting one another through the air-conditioning or drainage of somesuch.

Fingers crossed that nobody dies.
Yes, precisely what Mr Zebra said... the air conditioning will be spreading it. I too wondered why they didn't evacuate everyone off and put them into proper quarantine.

I'd hate to be stuck on a cruise ship, especially in one of those inside cabins that don't even have windows. It must be awful for all of them.
 

Xanatic*

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On a more cynical note, keeping them on the ship probably helped them learn about how the disease spreads and what its effect are within a population. Floating petri dish might be quite accurate.
 

Schrodinger's Zebra

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On BBC News this morning they were interviewing a British man who is stuck on the ship. He was telling us that Americans on the ship (and I think Canadians as well?), are all set to be taken away (if they've tested negative that is). But not British people. And the official WHO guidelines is not to repatriate, so he isn't very hopeful.

What really got me (as if this wasn't bad enough) was when he said that he is really scared, because he doesn't want to be split up from his wife if one of them gets the virus and the other doesn't. :(


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51519687
 

Min Bannister

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On BBC News this morning they were interviewing a British man who is stuck on the ship. He was telling us that Americans on the ship (and I think Canadians as well?), are all set to be taken away (if they've tested negative that is). But not British people. And the official WHO guidelines is not to repatriate, so he isn't very hopeful.

What really got me (as if this wasn't bad enough) was when he said that he is really scared, because he doesn't want to be split up from his wife if one of them gets the virus and the other doesn't. :(


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51519687
But it was fine to put a bunch of people from Wuhan in a tin can for several hours and bring them back. :dunno:
 

Yithian

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Sorry to keep banging on about the local situation, but it's interesting because the limited but not insignificant number of cases in Korea has permitted effective analyses of the sample (unlike in China where reporting is sketchy in the extreme).

Interesting facts from the 29 confirmed cases (all Korean or Chinese) here:
  • The average incubation period observed has been 4.1 days--nowhere near the 14 days plus that has worried people.
  • Secondary and tertiary infections have been confirmed (though that is no longer in doubt anywhere).
  • There has been no proved case of asymptomatic contagion.
  • Nobody has died and a notably majority of cases have not even required oxygen treatment--none currently being treated is in a serious condition and the last one--the oldest, I believe, at 82--displayed very low-intensity symptoms.
  • One child has been infected--a young teenager, I think--but no infants.
  • About a fifth of the cases have been cured and released, having tested negative for the virus twice.
  • Anti-retroviral drugs seem to have had an immediate effect on one case, but it could have been a coincidence that they were administered shortly before the patient's immune system got its act together.
It would be desirable to be able to extrapolate what are the inherent traits of the virus and what are fluke/atypical reactions or the products of the epidemic-level incidence and local medical facilities in Wuhan/China itself.
 
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Sorry to keep banging on about the local situation, but it's interesting because the limited but not insignificant number of cases in Korea has permitted effective analyses of the sample (unlike in China where reporting is sketchy in the extreme).

Interesting facts from the 29 confirmed cases (all Korean or Chinese) here:
  • The average incubation period observed has been 4.1 days--nowhere near the 14 days plus that has worried people.
  • Secondary and tertiary infections have been confirmed (though that is no longer in doubt anywhere).
  • There has been no proved case of asymptomatic contagion.
  • Nobody has died and a notably majority of cases have not even required oxygen treatment--none currently being treated is in a serious condition and the last one displayed--the oldest, I believe, at 82--displayed very low-intensity symptoms.
  • One child has been infected--a young teenager, I think--but no infants.
  • About a fifth of the cases have been cured and released, having tested negative for the virus twice.
  • Anti-retroviral drugs seem to have had an immediate effect on one case, but it could have been a coincidence that they were administered shortly before the patient's immune system got its act together.
It would be desirable to be able to extrapolate what are the inherent traits of the virus and what are fluke/atypical reactions or the products of the epidemic-level incidence and local medical facilities in Wuhan/China itself.
Interesting stuff Yith, though, as you state a tiny sample size. I'm curious as to where they got the 2-3% mortality rate from, that seems to have been bandied about from the early days when there were (presumably) very limited cases.
 

Schrodinger's Zebra

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There are now 355 cases of Coronavirus on the Diamond Princess cruise ship docked in Yokohama.
It is spreading like wildfire, isn't it? I wasn't sure how many people are on the ship in total so I looked it up... according to Wikipedia 3700 passengers and crew. So this is fast approaching 10% of the population of the ship now infected.

I bet the American passengers, airlifted away today, are immensely grateful.
 

Min Bannister

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Apparently a good number of them are not, because they have to begin fourteen days quarrantine anew in the U.S.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/16/...mond-cruise-us-evacuation-intl-hnk/index.html
Offt.
"Those who decide not to board the flight will still have to spend two weeks in Japan before being able to head home, because the American government says that it won't accept the Diamond Princess quarantine as proof that someone is virus free."

Well I wouldn't. It is clearly out of control there. What a mess.
 
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