Global Warming & Climate Change: The Phenomenon

[Robbrent]

There's a fisherman's cottage in Blackpool that in time passed was right on the shore but is now
1 and a half miles inland.

That's because of land reclamation in fact all down the coast of West Lancashire lots of land was reclaimed from the sea

 

[charliebrown]

NOAA issued information saying 2024 will follow the trend of record breaking heat this summer for the planet.

 

[charliebrown]

NOAA has said the Atlantic Ocean is too warm.

NOAA has forecasted the worst ever hurricane season for the U.S.

There will be 25 named storms, and a possibility of 7 of these storms striking the U.S. mainland.

 

[Mungoman]

NOAA has said the Atlantic Ocean is too warm.

NOAA has forecasted the worst ever hurricane season for the U.S.

There will be 25 named storms, and a possibility of 7 of these storms striking the U.S. mainland.

It makes sense.

 

[kesavaross]

NOAA has said the Atlantic Ocean is too warm.

NOAA has forecasted the worst ever hurricane season for the U.S.

There will be 25 named storms, and a possibility of 7 of these storms striking the U.S. mainland.

The heat from the ocean is one of the criteria for a hurricane too develop but it is far from being the only criteria.

I wonder how NOAA can be so accurate in their predictions for something that is by nature so hard to predict?

 

[Sharon Hill]

NOAA has said the Atlantic Ocean is too warm.

NOAA has forecasted the worst ever hurricane season for the U.S.

There will be 25 named storms, and a possibility of 7 of these storms striking the U.S. mainland.

Not exactly. Scientists don't make those kinds of exact calls. Here is the actual text from NOAA, prediction has error bars.
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season

NOAA National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center predict above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30, predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.

NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.

The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have above-normal activity due to a confluence of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation.

 

[Sharon Hill]

The heat from the ocean is one of the criteria for a hurricane too develop but it is far from being the only criteria.

I wonder how NOAA can be so accurate in their predictions for something that is by nature so hard to predict?

Climate models. The measured conditions are used. Reasonable assumptions are included. Calculations are done. It's not perfect but it's far better than guessing or psychics.