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Credibility In Ufology: Fact Or Fiction?

I was already familiar with autokinetic effects through prior experience with my glasses and amateur astronomy using both binoculars and a telescope. The movements weren't autokinetic effects - the visible target was moving as I steadily gazed at the overall scene.
I'm also familiar with autokinetic effects- but that doesn't stop me from being surprised at how strong they can be. An optical illusion is only worth the name if it actually produces an illusory effect, after all. Did you manage to compare the position of the light to a fixed reference on the ground? A telephone pole or power line, for instance? I've used poles and other street furniture to give a fixed point of reference for something in the sky before.

But that doesn't explain the quick exit at the end. That's got me beat. One effect that sometimes seems to produce the illusion of a quick exit upwards happens when a chinese lantern suddenly goes out- this produces a rapid fading in the night sky, which sometimes seems to produce the effect of a rapid retreat away from the observer. But I can't imagine how that would be replicated during the daytime.
 
No - I had no nearby items or features to correlate with the objects' exact positions. In both cases, the object appeared southwest of me above a valley, in mid-air, at some distance. The nearest ground-correlated position the scene suggested would have been in the vicinity of my former elementary school - circa 1.5 miles away. If the object was reflecting the available direct sunlight, it could have been significantly more distant.

If (in either case) the object was within 2 miles and reflecting direct sunlight, it would have had to be circa 300 feet above my position (the average relative height of the long ridges to my west / northwest at the moment)

In both cases the final exit / swoop-away maneuver occurred while the object was fully illuminated. It was just as bright - though smaller and smaller - as it receded. It looked like a very fast sounding rocket going up.

The position of the sighted objects didn't align with the sole local airport (off to the west / southwest miles distant across the ridges), nor did it correlate with the airport's routine approach and departure paths (with which I was quite familiar; generally east / west above my own position). The second-nearest airport capable of handling jets was over 100 miles distant (in the same generally southwestward direction).
 
In any case ... It wasn't my intention to foster discussion on these particular sightings. I only mentioned them to illustrate that although I'm often acting like a scrutinous skeptic on FTMB I've personally experienced relevant sightings, and I keep my mind open enough to characterize some few personal cases as still being 'open'.
 
......................
- More recent attempts to back away from the standard pop narrative and / or introduce alternative interpretations (e.g., Vallee) are too little too late (IMHO).


.

Actually Dr Vallee proposed his 'alternative' explanations starting as early as the mid to late 70's but no one really paid any attention or wrote him off as being too esoteric....'a heretic among heretics' as he used to say. He also said many times back in the early 80's that science missed some good opportunities to look into the enigma because of their bias I assume.
 
eboracum,

That depiction of a scotoma is very good.

About ten years back I used to have this happen on a fairly regular basis. It wasn't as brilliant as shown , but looked very much as shown, The effect would start in the top right hand side of my vision then slowly track across to the bottom left. I used to call it a 'sparkler'. Fortunately I don't have this problem any more. It certainly isn't to be mistaken for anything but what it is, a vision defect caused by the brain. One would never relate it to any kind of object seen.

While you are, of course, entitled to your own take on the reality of ufos, it is obvious that you have a de-bunking approach to everything put forward. Who knows, you may be right. But I doubt it.

One day we will find out; or we won't.

I for one am certainly not looking forward to the day a 'mighty ship descending on a point of flame' (to paraphrase Pink Floyd) burns up the White House lawn.

INT21.
 
While we are talking about things visual, I was at the hospital today having my right eye checked out by an ophthalmologist. This is a throw-back to the time in around August that I had the big 'floater' problem.

It seems that with age comes PVD, and it has come to me.

Posterior Vitreous Detachment.

Apparently caused by the fluid in ones eye thinning as you get old. Not a problem in most cases unless it leads to things like retina detachment.

The little booklet I was given says 'At the moment there is no treatment'. Well, nothing that may cause more damage than good.

So I'm just going to have to put up with whatever happens in the future.

Dr Wu will know all about this stuff.

But it will not be the cause of any ufo that I may happen to see.

INT21
 
So - I think this fits in here. I am came across this - and thought, well, these sound like credible sort of people...

Fmr. Manager of DOD Aerospace Threat Program: “UFOs are Real

Something extraordinary was revealed today. Former high-level officials and scientists with deep black experience who have always remained in the shadows came forward on one platform. These insiders have long-standing connections to government agencies which may have programs investigating unidentifed aerial phenomena (UAP/UFOs). The team includes a 25-year veteran of the CIA’s Directorate of Operations, a Lockheed Martin Program Director for Advanced Systems at “Skunk Works”, and a former deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Intelligence.

Today marked the official launch of To The Stars Academy of Arts & Science (TTS/AAS)...

I abruptly stopped reading at that moment, as I remembered that this is Tom DeLonge's baby - and this guy is just - whatever the opposite of credible is. He probably believes the stuff he his sprouting, but I sure don't.

On a sunny afternoon in San Diego, Tom DeLonge sits in front of a Mac in a darkened room, searching "black triangle UFOs" on YouTube. He plays a clip of a mysterious glowing craft, which hovers over Paris before disappearing in a flash of light. Conspiracy theorists refer to it as a TR-3B; some believe it's a machine the government secretly built from gathering UFO intelligence. "It's pure, unadulterated anti-gravity," he says, marveling at the craft's movement. "It would scare people if they knew this existed."

http://www.rollingstone.com/music/news/inside-tom-delonges-ufo-obsession-blink-182-turmoil-20160427

Tom - what really scares me is that you look at some dodgy YouTube clip with over 300,000 hits and somehow come to the conclusion that you are in the possession of super secret knowledge. Sigh...
 
As I sit watching the box or typing on the lap'y I often see movement out of the
left corner of my eye, a ghost? alien or UFO landing? strange animal? no such
luck, it's autumn and the dam grape vine in the plastic lean to is shedding it's
leaves, catches me out every year.
 
Out of sheer hubris I would like to make some suggestions. V-shaped formations of ovoid lights in the sky are usually flights of geese or other anseriformes flying in the dark, their pale underbellies reflecting the ambient light. I assume you've considered this explanation already and dismissed it- I think you may have been wrong to do so.

Birds flying at night are invisible, except if flying very close to a light source, and then being easily recognised. Having lived in a large city for years, brightly illuminated, I can ascertain it. This explanation had been tried for the Lubbock lights, obviously inappropriatley (although some hardcore deniers are still trying to push it, an illustration that a bogus story doesn't easily die) ; it falls apart easily when taking into consideration that every year, above all large cities, at times of bird migrations, they should be riffled with sightings of V-shaped formations.
The estimate given by EnolaGaia of the maximum distance between a putative flight of geese and the light sources appears reasonable. Which would have made them plainly identifiable.

Relating to the Belgian wave, the Eupen sighting definitely does not look like an helicopter, which would've been easily recognizable at the distance, the power of the lights exceeded anything associated with a man-made craft, the presence of a possible fan-like structure did not correlate, there was a general lack of sounds associated with an helicopter (and psychology of perception does not work as Printy says it does, reconstruction is a liminal phenomenon, that vanishes with focus).
The 30-31 March 1990 radar-visual case wasn't indeed radar-visual, as visual and radar sightings did not corroborate. Explanation for the initial visual events are unclear, coming to the radar returns, I had written on them on another topic. Most of them could be accounted by the phenomenon put forward by Meesen, but military experts were still of the opinion that a number of them couldn't. But it was too technical for me to comment.
 
Not true at all. I've seen seagulls flying at two or three hundred feet at night.

Here's a witness drawing from the Belgian flap - sure looks like a helicopter to me.
belgian2.jpg
 
So you could post seagulls at sixty rather than thrity meters at night ? In a brightly illuminated town, maybe, but it doesn't detract from what I said. And at this distance, they remain plainly indentifiable (as you did). From a greater distance (around 100 meters), all you could discern would be at most faint gray shapes, and at an even greater one, nothing.

I remember this drawing from the Belgian wave, but it related to another case. I'm trying to find the posts where I mentioned the radar controversy, and an attempt to reconstruct the Eupen sighting, with the main witnesses being left anaware.

The drawing representing a scrotoma effect (I believe it is also called an aura) has some likeness with my experience (it happens to me two to five times a year), but what I see is more blurry, diffuse, more like a luminous mist, with a few bright lines.
 
The thing about helicopters is that they are very noisy. If one is operating withing even half a mile from you you will hear it. If not the engine then the rotor beat.

We have a lot of criminality where I live and we get frequent visits by the police helicopters. You can hear them coming from at least three mile away and the sound from them as they are searching the area is very noticeable. And I live in a large town, not some rural Belgian countryside.

No, they probably were not helicopters.

INT21
 
Analis,

...scrotoma effect..

If you have flashing lights passing over your nuts then perhaps a visit the doctor may be advisable.

INT21
 
The thing about helicopters is that they are very noisy. If one is operating withing even half a mile from you you will hear it. If not the engine then the rotor beat.

In my experience, their audibility is very much dependent on wind direction and strength.
 
That depiction of a scotoma is very good ... It certainly isn't to be mistaken for anything but what it is, a vision defect caused by the brain. One would never relate it to any kind of object seen.
exactly

anyone who has experienced one will tell you its an internal rather than external phenomenon, and moves according to the movement of your eyes
 
Henry,

And the test is an easy one. Simply look in any other direction and it will still be there.

INT21
 
I'm trying to find the posts where I mentioned the radar controversy, and an attempt to reconstruct the Eupen sighting, with the main witnesses being left anaware.

They're here ; the attempt to reconstruct the Eupen sighting was made with a blimp dirigeable, adorned with lights, but the lessons to be learned apply also to a helicopter :
http://forum.forteantimes.com/index.php?threads/skunk-works-or-aliens.41818/#post-990088
http://forum.forteantimes.com/index...ack-triangular-craft.39079/page-3#post-932677 (the video is unfortunately not available anymore).
 
The thing about helicopters is that they are very noisy. If one is operating withing even half a mile from you you will hear it. If not the engine then the rotor beat.
Whether an observer hears the sound or not depends on several factors- ambient noise on the ground, and wind direction, for instance. The sound footpring of a helicopter can be distorted by winds at various levels so much that a visual observer is outside the sound footprint- i.e. the observer will not hear the helicopter.
And as I have said repeatedly- some observers did hear the helicopter.
 
Have been following this thread over the past few weeks. A couple of observations.

On the point of video camera surveillance and my bringing up railway cameras, the pay camera service that lets you watch landings at Heathrow recorded a UFO a couple of weeks ago.

Of course, this was not a UFO. It was an IFO (a bright fireball). And the media references to it being close to the plane when landing are obviously not true. it was miles high and seen across Europe at the same time.

I have written about this case in the December issue of Northern UFO News free on the www.Ozfactorbooks.com website.

This was great publicity for the pay camera but shows the possibilities I was referring to in my post earlier in this thread even with the limits of resolution of these cameras they can pick stuff up.

The other point was the discussion of Alan Godfrey's book earlier. I am pleased that you found it easy to read. You are right that creating it from his notes taken at the time was a big help to me when writing it. Not to mention that factor helped to curb my notorious (and self recognised my me!) verbosity.

It was also useful that I had been involved with the case since it happened because my cousin was married to his sergeant and he was appalled at how Alan was being treated. This meant I had kept my own notes about what had happened to Alan even though - when I was writing The Pennine UFO Mystery - I could not report many of these things then to protect Alan as he was still in the force and to protect my cousin's husband who was supporting him. So I have long awaited Alan having the chance to tell these parts of the story.

As you can see from the book someone claiming to be from the MoD got very involved in trying to shut him up using the Official Secrets Act. They seem to have got worked up over letters he was getting from a scientist in Moscow who was after data not just on his case but the Rendlesham Forest case. Despite at that time this not being public knowledge. Alan had no clue what this case was when he first got the letters until I explained it to him.

If the 'man from the ministry' was who he said he was to Alan it poses many questions about why this case was picked out for such reaction by the MoD (who might even have been a reason why the police mistreated him in such a terrible and baffling way).

This is what I found most intriguing - the logic behind MoD sending people out to a witness. There are relatively few cases where that has happened. And about 80% of the ones I have investigated have involved the police in some way or another. That sounds like more than a coincidence.

Not to mention why the MoD file releases have not included the file on Alan's case submitted by the police to the MoD and which the 'man from the ministry' had when he made Alan sign a reaffirmation of the Official Secrets Act.

You were right to point out earlier the importance of Alan's objectivity over what he saw. From the moment I sat next to him as he first saw the hypnosis video (his memory had been blocked by the doctor as Alan reacted very badly when hooked up to heart monitors during the session and the doctor felt he needed to forget it to protect his health) it was obvious he was as bemused over the reality of what he saw on screen as an uninvolved observer would be.

The essence of this case is usually focused by media and researchers around the alien component but this is almost an irrelevance given its provenance. Certainly less so than the physical reality of what he saw - backed up as it was by other witnesses.

In this debate about the nature of investigation we should not ignore how as researchers we get sucked into chasing the 'big one' that leads us away from asking the more fundamental questions about any case.
 
Certainly less so than the physical reality of what he saw - backed up as it was by other witnesses.
Wait- what? Are you saying that what he saw had physical reality? Does that include the memories recovered by hypnosis or not? Or just the initial impression that Godfrey had (which he initially thought was a bus?)

And exactly which witnesses 'backed up' his story? The policemen who saw a 'flash in the sky?' That would be a meteor, almost certainly. There is a world of difference between something that looks like a bus ( or a plastic UFO building) on (or near) the ground, and a flash in the sky.

Concerning the 'man from the ministry' - that might have been just some random UFO enthusiast. But assuming it was a man from the ministry, this visit does seem to be entirely consistent with a commendable interest in unidentified aircraft on the part of the government. I would be more worried if they were not interested, to be honest.

The fact that this mysterious investigator seems to have left no record of his visit in the files might just be a consequence of the fact that this case really has little or no useful data associated with it.
 
Wait- what? Are you saying that what he saw had physical reality? Does that include the memories recovered by hypnosis or not?

For what it's worth, I happened to listen to the two "The Unexplained" podcasts featuring Alan Godfrey and Jenny Randles today. And as we are discussing credibility here, I must say that Alan Godfrey came across as a very credible person. I personally have no doubt that he is completely honest in his account. Anyone even vaguely interested in this case really should listen to him before considering his credibility.

As to "physical reality" - Alan Godfrey himself still doesn't seem to be sure if what he saw was a nuts and bolts type machine. In that interview, he said he regretted not picking up a stone or a brick to throw at it to see if it would go "clunk".

You can find the podcasts here - http://theunexplained.tv/ - listen to the guy and make up your own mind. Both the UFO House and the Hypnotic Regression also do get addressed there, by the way.
 
Wait- what? Are you saying that what he saw had physical reality? Does that include the memories recovered by hypnosis or not? Or just the initial impression that Godfrey had (which he initially thought was a bus?)

And exactly which witnesses 'backed up' his story? The policemen who saw a 'flash in the sky?' That would be a meteor, almost certainly. There is a world of difference between something that looks like a bus ( or a plastic UFO building) on (or near) the ground, and a flash in the sky.

Concerning the 'man from the ministry' - that might have been just some random UFO enthusiast. But assuming it was a man from the ministry, this visit does seem to be entirely consistent with a commendable interest in unidentified aircraft on the part of the government. I would be more worried if they were not interested, to be honest.

The fact that this mysterious investigator seems to have left no record of his visit in the files might just be a consequence of the fact that this case really has little or no useful data associated with it.

No, it does not include the memories under hypnosis. I was not involved in those sessions (though I met and interviewed both doctors) because I do not believe regression helps resolve UFO cases, as I make clear in the part of Who or What Were They? that is specifically credited to me. In fact I was instrumental in stopping it being used by BUFORA in the early 1980s when we developed a voluntary code of practice for protecting witnesses.

Alan, too, has never argued for the actual reality of the 'memory'. Only the event he witnessed on the road and the physical effects it created - interfering with his two radio kits, the car engine, the physical effects on the road and the flash of light (also witnessed by another resident as the book reveals). He also had possibly related physical effects - marks on his foot and damage to his police boot.

So there were multiple physical effects that were integral to this case and far more important than the alien saga that is all most people talk about despite being by far the least credible part of the case and the one thing the witness himself has said from the off he does not know how real it was.

Indeed he volunteered negative data about himself over and over in this case - something you get to realise as an investigator is not consistent with a hoaxer who is not going to flag up the things you will recognise and seize upon as possible routes to solutions.

Of the missing time/on board stuff Alan has always said from two minutes after he first remembered it (as I was sat next to him when he did in late 1981).

He said it could have just been a 'dream' based on the fact that he has freely admitted he read a book about regression and alien images coming out if it immediately prior to the regression (the book was about the Betty and Barney Hill abduction).

Alan has always made clear two things - that his first assumption was it was the works bus that he saw often on those early turns. I documented him saying that in 1981 before the hypnosis. It was pretty much the only traffic out there at that hour as it picked up other drivers to take them to the Tod depot to drive the first buses of the day out.

So again HE put us onto that theory from the get go. Tricksters do not do that.

However, I also documented in 1981 him saying he saw that bus in Tod before he left to drive onto Burnley Road. Something he quickly realised after at first thinking that is what he was seeing and driving closer to see that the object was spanning the width of the road. So if it was a bus then it was slewed across the road and Alan also would subsequently have to have driven THROUGH it to the point beyond where it was that he 'came to'.

There is much new information in the book you might not know on this matter. Because we have spent years looking into and eliminating possible IFO causes - including the Futuro house, aircraft and a bus. One option does remain but it is simply a hypothesis and certainly not proven. That is to do with the weather at the time.

The bus theory has been dismantled for two key reasons. Firstly, Alan used to be a bus driver and drove the very bus he would have mistaken. This is why it was in his mind. But also why he was one of the least likely people to mistake it.

More crucially I have interviewed the driver of that bus - the only possible bus Alan could have seen. Not only are the timings of his run entirely consistent with Alan seeing him returning to the depot with the driver of the first service bus - just as Alan has always said - and in fact cannot be made to fit with his bus being on Burnley Road during Alan's sighting as I have tried to make that work. But also the driver of that bus saw something at the spot where Alan minutes later had his close encounter. He did not see the UFO. But he did see the same pattern left on the road swirled into the highway. And, crucially, felt a strange updraft suction effect going up into the air above the road as he held his hand out of the cab. He is adamant is was no ordinary wind.

Alan also drove a police officer back with him who he picked up in the centre of Tod and that officer saw the effects on the road at the spot.

Yes, there was also another witness (not a policeman but a school caretaker) who saw something spiral up off the road and move away around the same time. And a third witness who called in to the police station next day to describe seeing a UFO from Cliviger just along Burnley Road. But he never came forward subsequently.

I will cover your point about the 'man from the ministry' separately below.
 
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As for the Man from the Ministry being 'some random UFO enthusiast' you need to read Alan's book as you will quickly see how misguided that hasty suggestion is.

For a start he interviewed Alan at the police station alongside Alan's superior officer. No UFO buff could have got through security to do that pretending to be from the MoD.

In fact elsewhere in the book Alan describes a time when he arrested a senior officer because he had no proof of identity that he had deliberately not brought in order to test station security.

The man was aware of and discussed with him the Rendlesham Forest case that at that point was not public knowledge. Had the MoD report into Alan's case in his possession - which has not been released as yet. And was aware of the letters Alan was getting from a Moscow scientist.

He also made Alan re-sign the Official Secrets Act. And was present on subsequent occasions when Alan was at police headquarters being assessed by doctors.

Who ever this was took a lot of interest in this case and seems to have been a key factor in the appalling way Alan was treated by the police until they got rid of him.

This was anything but a routine follow up.

He also knew what I was doing at the time and made that clear to Alan as part of threats that he should cease cooperation. An apparent attempt to frighten him away from working with me on The Pennine UFO Mystery.

I kept a lot of these things out of that book to protect Alan and his family and my cousin's (I was involved with this case so early as Alan's sergeant who blew the whistle on the way he was treated was married to my cousin). Given the awful lengths they went to in order to try to discredit Alan - the book explains in detail - this was something I had to do as Alan was pretty scared that someone, somewhere might take this out on his kids.

And my cousin and her husband had a seriously ill young daughter so I waited until Alan wanted to get this part out and it was possible to say these things without compromising my cousin's family. I still had to get her permission first. Her husband died a year or two ago and Alan helped give a guard of honour to the coffin at the funeral.


This went WAY beyond the MoD just being routinely following up the sighting.
 
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The man was aware of and discussed with him the Rendlesham Forest case that at that point was not public knowledge. Had the MoD report into Alan's case in his possession - which has not been released as yet. And was aware of the letters Alan was getting from a Moscow scientist.

He also made Alan re-sign the Official Secrets Act. And was present on subsequent occasions when Alan was at police headquarters being assessed by doctors.
Wow it must be a UFO. Or, possibly, some secret military thing going on at the tail-end of the cold war. I wonder which is most likely?
 
I don't think it necessarily has to be either for the MoD interest in Rendlesham, if that is what you are suggesting.

Again in the book I explain why I suspect the MoD were especially concerned about Brenda, Dot and I being involved in digging into the then still (from their perspective) top secret Bentwaters affair. And that possibly had more to do with the then unusual fact of three women together digging into a UFO case (which was more by circumstance in truth).

This was at a time when the Women's Peace movement were gathering force and were soon under MoD surveillance at places like Greenham Common over the US bringing cruise missiles onto UK soil. And the MoD knew that we knew there were covert nuclear weapons at Bentwaters. It is discussed in one of the 1982 letters from the UK base liaison to Whitehall released in one of the recent MoD file batches.

Then Alan starts getting letters from a scientist in Moscow persistently asking him not just about his sighting but also about the same (still not yet in any newspapers in the UK let alone the USSR) Rendlesham Forest affair.

It is not hard in retrospect to see why flags might have been flying up in Whitehall irrespective of the cause of either UFO sighting.

Indeed it makes sense also of posts I have seen on line over the years which at the time I never paid much heed to - creating an impression that Brenda and I were involved with the peace movement. I know that I never have been and during all the time when Brenda, Dot and I were digging into Rendlesham that never cropped up and I never had any reason to think either of them were involved either.

At the time it just seemed idle speculation. But it might have been an attempt to just plant that idea into the UFO community that we had ulterior motives outside the case itself.
 
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I don't think it necessarily has to be either for the MoD interest in Rendlesham, if that is what you are suggesting.
I'm suggesting that if the MOD were paying attention that they just considered you/others/the affair to be a potential security issue. Let's face it, UFO investigation would make a good cover for 'spying' say.

The OSA pretty much nails the signer for anything that might be considered a problem, so it's good catch-all for anyone even suspected, as once it's signed you can be nicked for breaking it, on almost a whim. So once signed even 'hanging about an air-base' might suddenly find you arrested in breach of (wait for it) the official secrets act.

The passage of time with no unimpeachable corroborating evidence otherwise rather suggests security issues were the likely explanation rather than 'aliens'.
 
He said it could have just been a 'dream' based on the fact that he has freely admitted he read a book about regression and alien images coming out if it immediately prior to the regression (the book was about the Betty and Barney Hill abduction).
Alan has always made clear two things - that his first assumption was it was the works bus that he saw often on those early turns. I documented him saying that in 1981 before the hypnosis. It was pretty much the only traffic out there at that hour as it picked up other drivers to take them to the Tod depot to drive the first buses of the day out.
So again HE put us onto that theory from the get go. Tricksters do not do that.
I certainly agree that PC Godfrey isn't a 'trickster'; this is much more interesting than that. But he seems to have at least half an idea in his head that this was an internal experience of some kind, rather than a physical event. I'm fairly sure he is right about that. A daydream, including elements from the earlier sighting of a bus (plus a memory of the plastic house or photos of the same).

I don't suspect for a moment that the MOD were interested in any significant fashion until this Russian guy started poking his nose in. Now that really is interesting.
 
But also the driver of that bus saw something at the spot where Alan minutes later had his close encounter. He did not see the UFO. But he did see the same pattern left on the road swirled into the highway. And, crucially, felt a strange updraft suction effect going up into the air above the road as he held his hand out of the cab. He is adamant is was no ordinary wind.
This doesn't make any chronological sense. The bus driver saw the pattern left on the road before the encounter, and with no unidentified craft nearby. That means that there is no necessary causal relationship between the strange pattern on the ground and the event, since it was there both before and after the event. This could just be a coincidence (or possibly a trigger).
 
I'm suggesting that if the MOD were paying attention that they just considered you/others/the affair to be a potential security issue. Let's face it, UFO investigation would make a good cover for 'spying' say.

The OSA pretty much nails the signer for anything that might be considered a problem, so it's good catch-all for anyone even suspected, as once it's signed you can be nicked for breaking it, on almost a whim. So once signed even 'hanging about an air-base' might suddenly find you arrested in breach of (wait for it) the official secrets act.

The passage of time with no unimpeachable corroborating evidence otherwise rather suggests security issues were the likely explanation rather than 'aliens'.

I have never suggested the MoD were interested because of aliens. In anything. Their interest in UFOs has a number of reasons. One, in my view, being cases where foreign tech might have been seen or own our tech (I know of at least one case of an escaped drone that caused sightings). And there is pretty good reason to think they are aware that some UFO are really UAP - as in non alien energy based phenomena which potentially can be harnessed for use as a weapon.

Most serious UFO researchers who get past the need to have to find aliens in there and who are really interested in the truth not just establishing what they believe any way end up pretty persuaded that UAP are real. So I am sure the MoD got to the same conclusion with or without the Condign study.

My guess is that the MoD were long aware that the USSR knew this and it was why they invested scientific interest in UFOs and saw right through the alien ideology promoted by Kremlin puppets and knew what the real point of any interest was.

Once you get into a situation where security agencies are fairly sure that aliens are not invading but pretty sure some UAP are out there and potentially able to be a power source that might be used to advantage what we got from the MoD was exactly what we ought to have expected.

UFOs had to be monitored for the possibility of new clues as to the energy involved. And if the other side were clearly doing the same you had to engage in the same monitor.

The ETH has been a wonderful asset to the security forces. It distracts attention of any sensible scientists not under their control into wrongly thinking the phenomenon is absurd.

The theory might be. The evidence is not. But the more guff presented in the media the easier it is to get on with it unhampered.

Hence my interest in the few cases they chose to follow up in person. They did that rarely. So it is worth trying to find a pattern in the ones where we know that they did.
 
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This doesn't make any chronological sense. The bus driver saw the pattern left on the road before the encounter, and with no unidentified craft nearby. That means that there is no necessary causal relationship between the strange pattern on the ground and the event, since it was there both before and after the event. This could just be a coincidence (or possibly a trigger).

It does make some sense. The driver passed the site but could not get out. He saw the very strong stationary wind in the form of a vortex and the strange swirls and debris on the road but as he was in a hurry only got to put his hand out and feel the strong updraft. So the vortex WAS there as he passed and the effects on the road were causally linked to it.

Ten minutes later Alan drives up sees the same vortex effects and something glowing above the road. The close encounter follows.

We know from the weather that night there is a real possibility that a funnel vortex could have occurred and these can remain in more or less one spot for a few minutes.

Self evidently the most likely explanation for these two sightings is that the times are wrong and Alan drove up and saw the bus whilst it was stopped temporarily inside all of this swirling debris. He mistook the windows of the bus amidst the vortex as the UFO hovering over the road.

This is the theory I first suggested in my articles on the case in FT a couple of years ago. And I have tried pretty hard to establish it because it in effect resolves the case without casting any doubt on either witness. Alan reported what he saw and it was a strange freak IFO created by two unexpected things in one spot (a double decker bus amidst a funnel vortex).

The problem is making that work for a whole host of reasons - not least the timings and if true the fact that Alan and the bus driver would have had to pass each other on the road five or ten minutes after the sighting. Which neither say they did.

All this is in the book. Alan was happy to let me explain the theory. Another big plus for him but what I expected given his honesty. But both he and the bus driver cannot accept this explanation.

Whether you can is up to you. I have just posted the evidence.

I am certainly not arguing that there was a spaceship over that road.
 
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