Okay so balance these facts against each other. Both reported today. Current total of UK deaths is 4313 and this is expected to be the peak daily deaths this weekend (708 yesterday) so if we have a slow downward curve now then we might just about see 8000 total deaths by the time we stop counting them as being from covid-19 (which in itself is questionable).
So what planet is Neil Ferguson on when he gives an estimate of over 20,000? He has repeatedly displayed a total lack of accuracy over his 'forecasts'. This is the same guy that was putting forward the idea that we might have 200,000 deaths previously. Or was it a million?
April 5 (GMT)
UK: 1,559 COVID-19 patients are currently being treated in intensive care. Source:
Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
The UK could see between 7,000 and "a little over" 20,000 deaths during the pandemic, according to one of the country's top epidemiologists, Prof Neil Ferguson.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-england-52160783
Oh, EDIT; Just to give some numbers to our
Critical Care Capacity in the UK.
NHS England own figures for January 2020 show that of 4123 adult critical care beds there were 3423 occupied.
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statisti...and-urgent-operations-cancelled-2019-20-data/
Which leaves a spare capacity of around 800 beds. Quite a lot of those beds being used have been freed up through discharge and then non-reuptake due to cancellation of operations etc, and the number was also added to by increasing critical care bed numbers at hospitals, and also by creating extra capacity in the 'nightingale' hospital (which I expect will not get used, or barely used).
I saw a video has been released today purporting to be from a nurse in tears at being 'on their knees', swamped with covid-19 cases, but I think that is a fake. There is a
total of 692 cases in Hertfordshire, which judging by average figures of 5% of those total cases requiring
critical care means around 35 people. Spread that between the several main hospitals in Hertfordshire (not the little ones, just the main ones) means each is likely to have,
at most, 6 or 7 covid-19 patients.
It's just simple maths.
I'm not buying it that the NHS is drowning under a massive number of covid-19 critical care cases, it just doesn't add up.
Nowhere near.