I would ask you to reduce your percentage-based belief to a healthier 96 %.
lol! We'll split the difference and call it 98% - that's about all I can manage.
Yes, you're right when you say I can't be 100% sure, but look at it this way: Say one day I wake up and there's an apple on my garage roof. I don't know how it got there, but it's there. Now, if someone tells me a ghost put it there, I'll say that's nonsense. Not because I don't believe in ghosts, but because there are 101 other explanations. Neither do I mean I would stake my life that a ghost didn't put it there, but Occam's razor and all that...
I am very open minded, believe me. But not gullible. If I wasn't open minded I couldn't have sustained an interest for 20+ years and built a collection of 230 volumes (even sat in on a few seances, too). There's nothing I'd like better than to believe (like Mulder says) but seances? It's just not happening for me.
Montague Keen - let's not argue about my appreciation of the facts, nor whether you are asserting ignorance merely as a defense against much warranted scepticism, but let's just look at a couple of the things you say in your post:
(regarding the unopened films) "What emereged from this process, in which no cameras were involved and no opportunity for substitution was possible in virtually all cases"
Where is the proof? Proof could easily be obtained by creating an uncut video of the purchase of a fresh film, the sealing of that film container (with stamped wax, or whatever), transit of the film to the location and the events thereafter, using infra-red if required. Has this simple proof been done? If yes, then I apologise, clearly I am an unjustified in bringing it up. If it hasn't, why not, when such proof would be so very very easy.
"no-one has yet been able to explain how a pristine copy of a fifty year old newspaper could appear, even if it had been smuggled in"
Now, which is more likely? Someone obtained a pristine condition newspaper, or it was apported by the spirits of the dead? Newspaper yellowing is caused by lignin, which is a photochemical reaction - i.e. it needs light. It's simply not true to say a newspaper only 50 years old can't appear as new if it has been stored correctly, in a light-free environment. Again, where is the proof?
The rest of your post - correct me if I'm wrong - attempts to assert validity from the point of view "I don't know how it was done, therefore it must be supernatural." Again, I can't understand this viewpoint. Maybe it was, but (and take no offense) there are a great many things occuring in this world the workings of which you and your colleagues do not comprehend. This insistence to ignore and investigate the obvious is not in any way conducive to learning the truth. For instance, was the newspaper dusted for fingerprints before it was picked up?
And the end of the day, where is your proof? After all that time recording, observing, being surrounded by allegedly paranormal activity, where is the proof? Where are the sceptics who have been converted? Did you claim your $1m from Randi?
And the point about Randi is not flippant. Without getting into a discussion about the aims or character of the man himself, any group that now states "This is paranormal" yet chooses only to share the experience with established believers loses a lot of credibility in my eyes.
But it's been noted I wasn't there and I don't personally know the investigators. Very true. And I wouldn't presume to make any personal judgement about the people involved, but what it boils down to is a person saying that I have two choices:
(1) Believe, without any useful proof, the word of a group of strangers, that they were visited by the dead and given gifts of newspapers and photographs.
(2) Believe that these people are mistaken or lying, or have been the victim of a hoax.
I say again, I don't accuse anyone of lying, but to assume any reasonable person WON'T make choice number 2 on the basis of the equivocal and cliched evidence, even getting all snotty and offended about it, is insulting to all those who call themselves Fortean.