Amelia Earhart

RaM

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A Electra 10 was also sold to the Japanese navy for evaluation
so they may have used the Earhart one for spares.
 

EnolaGaia

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Or...that was it in the photo? The evaluation model?
It's essentially impossible to tell from a shadowy ambiguous snapshot background whether it was definitely an Electra, much less an Electra 10.

My guess is that it nothing closer than one of the circa 240 Model 14 'Super Electra' clones (identical form factor, upsized for additional payload) the Japanese were known to have built themselves and used as transports during WWII.

Fun Fact: The Japanese built more than twice as many 'Super Electras' as Lockheed did.
 

rynner2

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Full documentary now on YouTube;

Thanks for that! I've just watched it all through. The investigation seemed to cover everything relevant, and present its findings clearly.

The navigation analysis was right up my street, as was the historical investigation. And at the end, looking for the grave sites, it went all Time Team!

I'm pretty convinced they've solved the 'mystery', so it's a big Case Solved from me!
 

blessmycottonsocks

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I've watched the programme in its entirety now too.
Whilst I don't believe any single piece of evidence was completely conclusive, the cumulative evidence of the photographic analysis, the eye witness accounts, the declassified US archives, the storm having driven Earhart north of their planned route and the pieces of wreckage, one of which was a perfect match for the Electra's engine cowling, do make a pretty compelling case overall.
 
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Same here. It does all seem to add up very persuasively.

The possibility of a secret spying mission wasn't addressed but that's a good thing, in a way, and I can buy the chain of events leading to arriving at the Marshall Islands in error.

But why no efforts to negotiate their return to the US? Surely it was clear that falling out with Japan was on the cards already, come what may?
 

EnolaGaia

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I have no major problem with accommodating the Marshall Islands / Mili Atoll theory as a theory, and the documentary provides much that supports, but IMHO does not conclusively 'prove', that theory.

My big problem is with the Jaluit photo as any sort of critical evidence (in which role, as I see it, the documentary presents and promotes it). I still don't 'buy' the photo, and I'm still not wavering on that, because ...

Here's what may well be the stake through the heart of the Jaluit photo:

http://dl.ndl.go.jp/info:ndljp/pid/...403&contentNo=99&platform=hootsuite&__lang=en

It's an entry from the National Diet Library Digital Collections (Japan), relating to a book whose title translates as:

The life line of the sea My figure of the South Sea: South Seas archipelago photo book

The image clearly shows the photo in question on p. 44 of the document.

The indexing data (left sidebar) shows the publication date in Japanese dating format (it translates as 'Showa 10') and in Western format - 1935. 'Showa 10' = 1935.
 

blessmycottonsocks

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Well spotted EnolaGaia!
If that National Diet Library date is 100% verifiable, then that certainly eliminates the photo as evidence (and leaves the History Channel's photographic expert with rather a lot of egg on his face). The eye-witness accounts remain compelling though. I guess the mystery will continue for some time yet!
 

rynner2

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Well spotted EnolaGaia!
If that National Diet Library date is 100% verifiable, then that certainly eliminates the photo as evidence (and leaves the History Channel's photographic expert with rather a lot of egg on his face). The eye-witness accounts remain compelling though. I guess the mystery will continue for some time yet!
Given how well the photo seems to tie in with the rest of the story, from multiple sources, I'd suspect some kind of clerical error being responsible for the 1935 date. But I know no Japanese, and haven't the faintest idea how to check that out.
 

EnolaGaia

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My take on the documentary is that it registered somewhere between 'informative on previously known theories' and the sort of 'skating on the thin ice of innuendo' crap that has sadly proven sufficient to keep the Ancient Aliens series afloat.

The portion I found most interesting concerned the suggestive debris found on Enedik Island (Endriken Islands grouping; Mili Atoll). This debris linked physical evidence to the most specifically alleged Electra landing spot in the Marshalls / Saipan storyline.

However, one should proceed with caution before swallowing the evidence and notions touted in the documentary at face value.

The bit about there being only one good approach to Enedik for transferring heavy materiel / objects (on the inner / lagoon side) seems to have helped determine estimation of a path from that landing point to the other (outer) side of the island, where the Electra was alleged to have crash-landed. They conveniently omit mentioning the transference / transport of heavy items across the islet might have been done in the opposite direction.

This is relevant because Mili Atoll, being in the southeastern-most corner of the Marshalls group, was one of the few atolls the Japanese heavily fortified as a peripheral defense stronghold when WWII broke out. It therefore became one of the earliest, and most common, bombing targets during the Allies' Marshalls campaign. My point is that the metal cart wheels are just as reasonably interpreted in terms of hauling heavy materiel onto Enedik as hauling a wrecked aircraft off Enedik.

The aluminum edging and other bits discovered on Enedik are admittedly suggestive if one spins them as possible Electra debris. If it were the case that there'd never been anything else on / around Enedik to leave such debris it would have been a lot more interesting.

As it is, I'd say none of the documentary's displayed physical evidence necessarily equaled, much less surpassed, the equivocal status of certain pieces TIGHAR has found on Nikumaroro.

NOTE: This is not to say I'm a TIGHAR theory partisan.
 

blessmycottonsocks

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My take on the documentary is that it registered somewhere between 'informative on previously known theories' and the sort of 'skating on the thin ice of innuendo' crap that has sadly proven sufficient to keep the Ancient Aliens series afloat.

The portion I found most interesting concerned the suggestive debris found on Enedik Island (Endriken Islands grouping; Mili Atoll). This debris linked physical evidence to the most specifically alleged Electra landing spot in the Marshalls / Saipan storyline.

However, one should proceed with caution before swallowing the evidence and notions touted in the documentary at face value.

The bit about there being only one good approach to Enedik for transferring heavy materiel / objects (on the inner / lagoon side) seems to have helped determine estimation of a path from that landing point to the other (outer) side of the island, where the Electra was alleged to have crash-landed. They conveniently omit mentioning the transference / transport of heavy items across the islet might have been done in the opposite direction.

This is relevant because Mili Atoll, being in the southeastern-most corner of the Marshalls group, was one of the few atolls the Japanese heavily fortified as a peripheral defense stronghold when WWII broke out. It therefore became one of the earliest, and most common, bombing targets during the Allies' Marshalls campaign. My point is that the metal cart wheels are just as reasonably interpreted in terms of hauling heavy materiel onto Enedik as hauling a wrecked aircraft off Enedik.

The aluminum edging and other bits discovered on Enedik are admittedly suggestive if one spins them as possible Electra debris. If it were the case that there'd never been anything else on / around Enedik to leave such debris it would have been a lot more interesting.

As it is, I'd say none of the documentary's displayed physical evidence necessarily equaled, much less surpassed, the equivocal status of certain pieces TIGHAR has found on Nikumaroro.

NOTE: This is not to say I'm a TIGHAR theory partisan.
That's more sound analysis, EG.
The History Channel really ought to have consulted with you before broadcasting!
 

chicorea

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I think that there's a lot to be considered about this TV show. The documentary is a super production, and I suppose that the approval for its shooting should be on hold for a while. The photo may well be the piece that gave enough sensationalism to guarantee the return of the investment. Besides, all this travels between the US and Oceania, the meetings, the digs, all this should have been planned and checked for some time before the photo emerged. It's not the photo that gives origin to their quest, but the photo was supposed to be the guarantee that people would listen to the argumenta of the producers/directors/writers.
Unfortunately, the photo was too easily debunked and the whole thing backfired. The credibility of the documentary is now nosediving. Worse, imagine the credibility of the forensic technicians that put their reputation under fire because a photo that a blogger researching with Google can debunk in a couple of days. Imagine the lawyers of the people sentenced because of their "expertise", ready to reopen cases based on the damned reputation of the forensic experts on this documentary.
And yet, their arguments are reasonable, specially the witnesses on the Marshalls or in Saipan. I really believe that they are telling what they are sure it's the truth.
In my opinion, the documentary was a lazy attempt to present a valid argumentation on a case that I believe it's a very possible explanation for Earhart's disappearance.
Just one last comment : while watching the show, an idea crossed my mind. Maybe there was a spy on the plane, and it would be Noonan, the sidekick, the discreet one. This could explain the way he was (supposedly) executed in Saipan, and maybe he dragged Earhart with him to this atrocious end.
 

EnolaGaia

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That's more sound analysis, EG.
The History Channel really ought to have consulted with you before broadcasting!
Thanks ...

I just wish they'd displayed a more rational approach and researched the photo more deeply before running with it. As it is (and to the extent the documentary ever portrayed it ... ) they were satisfied with simply knowing the photo (as an artifact) hadn't been manipulated / PhotoShopped / whatever. If Kinney's copy had been suitably certified as a true copy of the National Archives original, I wouldn't necessarily have blinked (much ... ) if they'd skipped the step of consulting a photo (artifact) analyst.

They blew it by not adequately checking the photo content (i.e., the image; what was pictured) before rushing it to the second 'expert' for the express purpose of checking whether, and to what extent, he could confirm two figures Les Kinney thought he saw in the picture might be the same two people all these guys were anxious to prove were in it.

This second 'expert's' failure to choke on the lack of both (a) reasonable reference features on the male face and (b) reliable measurement points on the seated figure (who is obviously leaning forward, away from the camera, at an unknown angle) was the point where my mildly beeping BS detector escalated to moderate clanging.

The most the second expert offered was hand-waving about proportions in the male figure's face and the seated figure's distance from X (top of head? I forget ... ) to armpits. Normal humans are quite similarly proportioned on these and other anthropometric measurements, so my BS detector really started blaring when he (the 2nd 'expert') acted as if they could, much less did, point specifically to Noonan and Earhart.

My jaw dropped when he rated the match as 'very likely', when anyone knowledgeable would have concluded it demonstrated no more than being 'consistent' with the ID's the lead characters were clearly hoping to verify.

Talk about confirmation bias ...
 
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dinwitty

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I think this helps to show where -not- to look, but the possibility of Amelie being captured still exists even if she might have been taken to this location. That is an amazing newsworthy find, EnolaGaia

I think its a perfect time to see if anything is in japanese archives on any photos taken in the area at the time of Amelia's dissapearance or records.
 
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[...]Maybe there was a spy on the plane, and it would be Noonan, the sidekick, the discreet one. This could explain the way he was (supposedly) executed in Saipan, and maybe he dragged Earhart with him to this atrocious end.
Another of the rumours knocking about (but not mentioned on the History Channel doc) is that a man, that is the white fellow with Earhart, was seen burying a metalllic-looking box or case of some kind - the insinuation being that he had something valuable that he would not want the Japanese to discover, such as a camera, or rolls or film / photographic plates containing aerial shots of their nearby military installations) - all very hypothetical of course.

In fact (and I don't remember the details as I've listened to many, many podcasts on the subject over the years) I am sure someone claimed to have located this artefact, but that it was very badly corroded inside and out due to the sky-high acidity of the soil and couldn't be identified properly.
 

GNC

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Probably artefacts in the image, like one of those magic eye pictures from the 1990s, only accidental.
 

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If that's an image from Tighar and Ric Gillespie from Nikumaroro, then I would say the answer is probably "no".

I've been following Tighar's work since the 1980s, and I've grown skeptical. Tighar's "big announcements" that they have "almost" found evidence, and just need "a little more research" or "a little more digging" are just too carefully timed to coincide with their fundraising drives.

I tend to side with the traditional theory that she went down near Howland.

Sorry, am I hijacking a thread here? Pardon me. Do continue with google weirdness, please.
 

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Gambeir

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The images are from Google Earth I believe and of the Lagoon at Orona. They may have reasoned a water landing would be safer than trying to land on a beach at night. Frankly I'd opt for the beach. Next best thing would be a lagoon. Better than ditching in open water is what they probably reasoned. I can understand that but I wouldn't do it.

I'll bet that if that's the lockheed they are both still in it. Probably never got out of it to begin with. Hope they do find it's the Lockheed. Would be interesting to know.

Tighar was looking at Nikumaroro because of a partial skeleton of a found on that island.
https://www.livescience.com/56752-castaway-bones-linked-to-amelia-earhart-questioned.html

PS: The more I look at that image the more convincing it appears. They just need to send a team of divers is all.
 
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EnolaGaia

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If that's an image from Tighar and Ric Gillespie from Nikumaroro, then I would say the answer is probably "no". ...
No, the image isn't from TIGHAR, and it's not from Nikumaroro.

It's from Orona (formerly Hull Island), circa 145 miles east of Gardner / Nikumaroro.

This image has been shopped around on various Earhart / mystery sites for the last few years. As far as I know, it originated from this site:

http://www.aquariusradar.com/AmeliaEarhartpage.html

The theory elaborated at AquariusRadar is a variant of (e.g.) the Mili Atoll / Japanese capture theory, with the landing site shifted from the Marshall Islands to Orona and a considerable amount of conspiratorial spins on Japanese activities you won't find anywhere else.

The claim is that Earhart crash-landed her Electra in the lagoon on Orona after failing to find Howland Island and / or make visual contact with the Itasca. The follow-on claims (which get progressively weirder ... ) allege she was captured by the Japanese military.

The one thing about the Orona theory I appreciate is that it's one of the only theories that's based on Earhart's having overshot rather than undershot her planned rendezvous at Howland.

The most substantive thing that argues against the Orona theory is that a Lt. John Lambrecht visited Hull Island in his seaplane during the initial search in July 1937. It was inhabited, but the copra plantation's resident manager denied any knowledge of any airplane sighting in the previous days, as well as anything heard on his radio receiver at the time. The 'native' plantation workers, it was explained, hadn't ever seen an airplane prior to Lambrecht's visit. It's difficult to believe Earhart could have landed the Electra in Hull Island's central lagoon without anyone noticing.

Lambrecht's submitted report can be accessed at:

http://tighar.org/Projects/Earhart/Archives/Documents/Lambrecht's_Report.html
 

Gambeir

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I haven't followed it closely enough to keep the stories together with which Islands they belong to, but I think I've heard them all.

According to the late Kelly Johnson the Lockheed Electra 10E she was piloting had a range of between 3,500 NM and 4,000 NM. This suggests that they could have realized they had the general area, but were essentially lost, and likely they flew round till they finally spotted some land. Probably low on fuel the only sensible thing would be to ditch, and so they did, but they never left the plane.
https://www.thisdayinaviation.com/amelia-earharts-lockheed-electra-10e-special-nr16020/

Ya know if they ditched in the lagoon and you hadn't heard any engine noises or anything to cause you to search for a plane, then just because someone was on that Island doesn't mean they would have heard the plane ditching. If they never made it out of the plane there wouldn't be anything to reveal that they were only feet beneath the water. She probably ran the tanks dry thinking it would help them float. There's problems with the lagoon ditching, but who knows?

I guess this Tighar guy has some kind of ability to control who gets to look where as part of a ten year contract with local authority, whomever that may be; Micronesia or the Marshall Islands?
 
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