• We have updated the guidelines regarding posting political content: please see the stickied thread on Website Issues.

Digital Doomsday: Risks Of Reliance On Digital Data

A

Anonymous

Guest
Only 0.003% of information on the planet exists in hard copy. The rest is on computers. Are we in danger of losing it? I remember a few months ago, they discovered that the Doomsday Project was close to unusable because there are so few BBC Micro computers with laser disc players still working. Think they spotted that in time and are transferring the data, but it's a sobering precedent. Forgotten passwords, hardware breaking, changing formats - all this can make electronic data inacessible. If this started to happen on a big scale it would dwarf the burning of the library at Alexandria...

Check out this article:

shift.com/content/web/385/1.html
Link is dead. The MIA article can be accessed via the Wayback Machine:


https://web.archive.org/web/20020710192615/http://www.shift.com/content/web/385/1.html

Does anyone think we're really in danger of entering a new dark age? What could be done about it?
 
Last edited by a moderator:
I'd speculate that the majority of the data that we do keep is irrelevent or useless and therefore not needed. I think we keep stuff because we can, not because we actually need to. For instance one chap who posted a reply to article you posted was very miffed because he lost 12 months of e.mail !!! Who needs 12 months of e.mail!

There may be a little warning to us all about the need for access to reliable data storage but a worldwide curruption of digitally held data is inconceivable, it won't happen.
 
Perhaps so. Clearly much of what we produce isn't going to be of much interest to future generations. The sheer volume of information produced these days could mean there's more worthwhile stuff in absolute terms, though?

I agree that we're unlikely to see a single apocalyptic data-loss. I was thinking more of a piecemeal degradation as servers break, formats die and whatnot. I mean, how many web pages that someone put lots of time and effort into making have now just disappeared - especially on geocities and things like that? I agree with the article's author that a big part of the worry is that there won't be much left for historians in the future - there will be far fewer diaries and letters to use, and lots of weblogs, emails etc just won't survive. I don't think people appreciate how vulnerable this stuff is.

It's comforting that things like Project Gutenberg are using ASCII text, not pdfs or something equally evanescant.

I suppose there's truth in the idea that people who value information will take the trouble to secure it, but on the other hand humans tend to be pretty feckless until they get hurt a few times.
 
Information Evolution

In the five minutes that i've spent thinking about it, data storage, languages etc. are probably gonna evolve in a similar 'tree of life' way to that of man. Obselete storage formats, programming langages and hardware gradually die out leaving the successul ones to survive until there is another leap in technology when more langages, formats and hardware based on the old are developed, and so the cycle continues. Although it may be open to abuse. Anybody remember the VHS vs Betamax wars, superior format vs marketing budget.

The sheer volume of information produced these days could mean there's more worthwhile stuff in absolute terms, though?

I agree, although, as humans we are quite effective at analysis minimal data to create the larger picture, you just need to look at some of the amazing archeology being done today and project that forward a few thousand years to be able to see what we will be able to do then.

To be honest loosing some of the info we have these days is probably a good thing.
 
Data is recoverable, although doing so is time-consuming and expensive.

Generally, I back up important data to CD (no Zip disks after I lost 18 months of work to a faulty Zip--the data could have been recovered, but the cost was $800 which was not worth it).

For critical data, I print a single copy as well as having the CD.

Hardcopy of passwords are in a safe.

The problem is in teaching people how to handle their data. Once they get into a backup routine, they'll lose much less that has meaning to them.
 
I find the figure of 0.003% hard to believe. What are they including in the definition of information? I mean, there's a lot of data out there on the Internet, but much of it is either redundant or useless. There's a lot of stuff locked up in people's brains, but most of it is unimportant (I know what I had for dinner last night, but who else needs to?).

Then there's the fact that people still tend to print stuff out to read it, as they aren't comfortable reading it on the screen. Some places require hard copies for filing. A lot of important information at my work is still stored in paper files, despite a policy of moving as much as possible to electronic format.

Also, I'd say that I have more raw data in hard copy in my home than on the three computers I have in it. (I'm looking at my library as I type.) While I could probably get all of it onto the computers, it isn't worth the effort.

What about the various state libraries around the world? Most of them are loaded with information, most of it in book form. That which isn't is usually also stored with the means to retrieve it (Microform, for instance).

As to recovering data in electronic format: you can now get software to emulate all sorts of "extinct" computer systems on your home computer. If you're really serious about it, you can get the original tapes hooked up, and transferred to CD.

I do agree that society is becoming too dependent on computers (look at what happens if the network goes down in your typical office these days), but I think we're a long way off from catastrophe.
 
I hear some people saying that print media will die one day but it doesn't sound possible. Although there are more convenient formats, print seems the most accessible and fault-tolerant. I hope that figure of 0.003% isn't accurate...many things have happened to many civilizations in the past but the only thing we learn from them is what was written down. I don't think anything worth putting in print is useless. Look at what we learn about other civilizations based on journals and books found -- it also includes day-to-day things that people would have found trivial at the time.
 
Paper doesn't really last long either does it ? Remembering the crumbling book scene in The Time Machine . Every time someone dies all that amazing valuable data in their mind is lost . Accept most data in whatever form is ultimately lost and enjoy the sunshine!
 
Could happen

As the saying goes "a technologically advanced society is the easiest to destroy. If there was a great war or global catastrophie then a dark age is almost garenteed. I mean I know how a car works. Internal combustion engine and all but I cant build one from scratch.

Of course it would have to be a really big catastrophie like 80% fatality rate but nothings impossible.
 
IMHO 99% of all information created is useless mostly consisting of junkmail, spam emails, celebrity lifestile magazines and porn not realy of much use or concequence is lost, I realy hope historians 100 years from now aren't talking about interveiws with the person who left big brother first in 2002.:) .
 
tomsk said:
...a few months ago, they discovered that the Doomsday Project was close to unusable because there are so few BBC Micro computers with laser disc players still working...

It would be a pity if the BBC Doomsday Project was lost. I contributed a Fortean article to it about the Ghost of Hunstanton Hall and Black Dogs

The project was ahead of its time, the laser disk players cost about £2000 each. Who was ever going to buy one, certainly not cash-stapped libraries and schools. I only ever saw one working which was at the Science Museum.
 
irish can save the world...

we can always get Irish monks to copy everything down again
 
Contrary to popular belief . . .

Paper is actually damn difficult to destroy in bulk. Try putting 2 or three books on a fire. As long as they are not open the outside will char but the contents will be protected by that charring.

I seem to recall that paper in landfill sites was found to be more robust than the plastics everyone was afraid of.
 
you're right; the table of contents and index might burn, but not that meat of the book.
 
Regarding burning paper, I seem to recall that if you have a huge amount of it, it's fairly easy to destroy it all. You just leave it in a pile outside, and the first time it rains it will all get damp. Some sort of bacteria will then start to reproduce inside it, eventually generating enough heat to ignite the whole lot. I've seen it happen near here at a bit of land beside a forest where a guy had been dumping his stuff (possibly illegally :) ). Of course, I might be wrong ;)

Regarding BBC Micros with laser disk players, a BBC Microcomputer itself would be fairly easy to recreate (assuming you had the ROM it used, which is likely since it's probably floating around the internet to fuel the various emulators in existence), since it uses a very old CPU, but as anome mentioned, the emulator might be enough to let you run it. Assuming you have a way to hook the disk reader up, that would be my main concern :) I'm sure a company would be happy to accept some cash to create such an interface, if it was required...

Currently I back up to DVD, I used to back up to CD. I've never been impressed by Zip disks so the only time I ever used one was to transfer something I downloaded at University from one of their computers to my dads work, where I burnt it to CD :)

And the video machine we got early on was a V2000. Lovely quality, you could record on both sides of the tape, but Philips were too late in the game :)
 
new dark ages

dark ages brought up a thought ,ever heard of that " gray stuff",a goo--used in "nano technology",some say if this gray goo -thats in the testing stage ,gets out of hand it will be like "the blob X's 1,000,000" real speedy taking over every thing "metal",I just hope these "super brainiacs" in the top secret labs, don't do us all in,then the data we've recorded will only be read by some alien race--until of course the goo gets them too.
 
what don't you like about Zips?

As an illustration of this thread's theme, the main problem is that they became effectively obsolete (except for vintage computing buffs) within a few years of this 2002 query being posted ...
 
For archival purposes ... Here's the text of the MIA webpage cited in post #1.
The Digital Dark Age
by David Emberton

Last month, a Norwegian literary museum admitted losing access to their catalogue system after the database administrator died -- taking the password with him. Yesterday, my mother's computer died -- taking two years worth of email with it. The museum in Norway put out a radio call for hackers to help crack the code. My Mum? Well, she just cried into the phone for a while.

It might seem as though these two stories are only slightly related. To me, they both indicate a bigger problem.

Prior to the commercial internet and the arrival of cheap mass storage, computers were mostly used for pumping out paper documents. But with the explosion of email, web publishing and digital media in general, times are changing. Culture as we know it is going digital.

Constructing a history is fairly straightforward: In the physical world, works are tangible and rooted in time and place. Birth, death and marriage records maintained by governments allow us to trace who made what, and when. Mostly, stuff lasts.

Unfortunately, digital works aren't like that. Data is a commodity, stored in bulk on anonymous file systems, duplicated and destroyed by whoever has access. Every day hard drives fail, human-dependent backup systems fail. People die and their computers get wiped or thrown out. Passwords are lost and formats change. Corporate intranets are a mess -- if you've ever had the displeasure of using one, well, let's just say keeping everything is not the same as keeping everything organized.

Digital culture + geeks with attention deficit = uh oh.

In 2000 the University of California, Berkeley published a study showing that printed content represents only 0.003% of the world's total information -- most of the remainder is stored digitally. If that figure is correct, almost our entire output as a society is entrusted to one of several Microsoft operating systems and disks with twelve-month limited warranties.

*cue danger music*

Y2K, another problem brought about entirely by lack of forethought (plus a healthy dose of denial), has not served as a wake up call. Product development decisions continue to revolve around annual earnings. Technology uptake continues to be driven by novelty and the quest for cool. Even in the Open Source world, development is more about cloning commercial products than designing software to last a millennium.

Two hundred years from now, how will historians assess the early twenty-first century? They won't, because scarcely anything will be left to assess. That's right: Welcome, my friends, to the digital dark age.

A step backwards is not the solution, trees being in short supply and all. Besides, librarians and archivists have discovered that the books and papers we print now dissolve much more quickly than books printed a century ago. Paper isn't the answer: Our only viable option is to come up with a digital system that works.

To do this, we need to transform some of our ideas about computing.

Right now, files are stored on individual machines. It's up to the owners of those machines to make copies -- but individuals, until they lose something important to them, do not back up. We can look at P2P file-sharing systems, with multiple redundant copies of almost every file, for inspiration. Why not do the same with personal files, automatically creating mulitple copies of your recipe book across the network? You'd never have to back up again.

This isn't necessarily a new idea: Sun Microsystems is fond of suggesting that "the network is the computer" and the distributed computing concept has been around for a while. But people are understandably hesitant to store their personal files on a central server, much less someone else's personal computer. What of privacy, if your files are scattered all over the world?

That's where identity comes into play. The data and documents you create today are generic and anonymous -- they are not linked to your identity in the municipal records, nor are they proven to be authentically yours. In a lot of cases they aren't even datestamped accurately. This makes your files even on your own computer vulnerable -- a vulnerability that could be overcome by linking them to your official records. If you are going to be storing your files on someone else's computer, you'll want a foolproof way to identify that the files are yours.

It might seem abhorrent to think of some government program tagging and subsequently rifling through your digital stuff. But perhaps the government only needs to give us access to the citizenship records we've already paid them to maintain.

Unbreakable encryption is a viable solution, but only if data isn't locked down permanently. As morbid as it seems, a system that's aware of your death or permanent disablement can make sure those files are unencrypted at the appropriate time. The same system could make sure your files are released to the public domain, protected by copyright, or even deleted from the network for privacy reasons at the time of your demise.

We need a new universal storage mechanism: one that authenticates, protects and manages the data we create. In a future-conscious world, such functions would be a natural extension of the computing experience.

Finally, there is the issue of format. As proprietary data formats give way to XML, and XML gives way to whatever comes five years later, things are going to get lost in the shuffle. Who to call when you need to translate a fifty-year-old Word file? Not to mention the fact that binary storage will sooner or later be replaced with non-binary molecular or holographic storage.

By legislating in the interest of future generations, government could ensure that software companies publish closed formats to a public repository, forming the basis of a "universal file translator." Then, there would be some confidence in the accessibility of even the oldest data.

Regardless of what may or may not happen, nobody wants to be forgotten (at least, I know I don't). That's why a little danger music will hopefully be good for us, to get us thinking about how the storage decisions we make today are likely to affect the people that come afterward. And think about it we must, else what a great shame: To let the dawn of the Information Age turn slowly, and irreversibly, dark.

Salvaged from the Wayback Machine:

https://web.archive.org/web/20020710192615/http://www.shift.com/content/web/385/1.html
 
As an illustration of this thread's theme, the main problem is that they became effectively obsolete (except for vintage computing buffs) within a few years of this 2002 query being posted ...
Just a few hours ago, I was browsing in my favorite thrift store and saw an old Gateway computer for sale. I checked it out, in the hope it was a Windows 98 machine but alas, it was XP. I'd like to find an old W98 machine just so I can play Lunatic Fringe again. I have the game on CD, part of the old Flying Toasters screen saver or whatever that was. Lunatic Fringe was a great game. I've tried to play it on other machines, including a Mac that should have been able to pull it off, to no avail. Some years ago I was about to scrap out an old XP machine, and decided to see if I could get W98 to run on that. Long story short, I did get it going but it wouldn't run my favorite game. Drat!

There are some computer nerds who love the game at least as much as I do, and they have tried several ways to get it going again. There was a web page that ran an emulation, but it just wasn't there. There were no sound effects. The sounds were a big part of the appeal. It seems completely insane that such a situation can exist, but it appears that you need an actual old W98 machine to make it work. Mine died long ago and I got rid of it. Still have the hard drive, a giant 3gb monster! If I had the rest of the hardware, I could probably just fire it up and play again.
 
You ought to find someone to collaborate with in fixing up old machines, and open a retro gaming arcade. I bet people (gamers) would be grateful. It could become a tourist draw, too, and you could sell T-shirts and coffee/tea mugs with your logo on it. You could hang photos of visiting celebrities on the walls. Young gamers could discover the satisfying aspects of archaic games, and write movie scenarios based on them. You could franchise a gaming history series on Netflicks / Amazon TV / HBO. I'm only half-joking.
 
Mine died long ago and I got rid of it. Still have the hard drive, a giant 3gb monster! If I had the rest of the hardware, I could probably just fire it up and play again.
Can you plug the HDD into another computer and boot from it?
 
Can you plug the HDD into another computer and boot from it?
It'd have to be another old PC with the right kind of HDD card. There have been so many drive types over the years, that's the problem.
 
Just a few hours ago, I was browsing in my favorite thrift store and saw an old Gateway computer for sale. I checked it out, in the hope it was a Windows 98 machine but alas, it was XP. I'd like to find an old W98 machine just so I can play Lunatic Fringe again. I have the game on CD, part of the old Flying Toasters screen saver or whatever that was. Lunatic Fringe was a great game. I've tried to play it on other machines, including a Mac that should have been able to pull it off, to no avail. Some years ago I was about to scrap out an old XP machine, and decided to see if I could get W98 to run on that. Long story short, I did get it going but it wouldn't run my favorite game. Drat!

I still have a Win 98 PC and a lot of DOS based games I occassionally play on it (but don't know Lunatic Fringe). I just checked on Ebay (UK) and Win 98 machines are fetching the same money as a basic Win 7 PC (£75 - £150) so your problem is clearly widespread.

I was talking to the Manager of a charity shop about cameras. She said that a lot of the non-digital cameras handed in still had undeveloped film in them, the digital cameras were full of images. People are taking photos more than ever but the majority aren't printed off (maybe not even downloaded), they stay on a Sim card or whatever. When the card or the camera or the hard drive goes, then so does the information. What sort of history will we pass on without photos (or letters or diaries) ?
 
As an illustration of this thread's theme, the main problem is that they became effectively obsolete (except for vintage computing buffs) within a few years of this 2002 query being posted ...

And even the comments about saving to discs.

I don't think I even had home Internet in 2002 and now it's in my pocket!

If we were worried about data loss 17 years ago then now would be so much worse.
 
I've just finished reading the latest Frederick Forsyth novel 'The Fox'. Simply put the premise of the story is the recruitment of a teenage boy with Asperger's who has the ability to hack into the most secure computer systems worldwide. Put to use by the British government, he causes havoc amongst it's enemies by destroying critical systems thereby causing irreparable, long lasting and/or expensive damage.
It all seems plausible and I'd be certain such things occur on a daily basis, albeit on a much smaller scale.
 
I've looked at eBay for old W98 machines. On there, someone like me is competing with people like the fellow I read about years ago who had a whole machine shop or factory or something that ran on W98. He said it would be cheaper to buy new machines than to get the place running on whatever was current then, probably W7. He said the machines were still in fine shape so he kept rebuilding the old computers and buying good ones when he found them. Maybe someone will come up with an app so we could just use an old phone instead.

Not far from here, there is a small newspaper that's still printed on an ancient press that uses Linotype blocks. The owner says as far as he knows, it's the only such operation still using Linotype. He has several old machines he has bought for parts, and keeps the whole operation going by himself.

Fergot the link.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Saguache_Crescent
 
Last edited:
Can you plug the HDD into another computer and boot from it?
I think that particular game is an outlier in several ways. I'm no expert by any means, but I think it has to do with the fact that the game lives in a screensaver. It has a remarkably small footprint, as I understand it. Like some of the later games made for the old Atari consoles, it makes very clever use of relatively meager resources. (You could, however, land on the Moon with less computer power.) Several attempts have been made to bring it back to life, but they range from tantalizingly close to the real thing to things that won't load, won't do much if they do load, or just don't work properly. If I ever do get to play it again, it will probably seem a lot less awesome than it has become in my mind.
 
... If we were worried about data loss 17 years ago then now would be so much worse.

This is especially true now that so many users have passively sub-contracted their data storage to "The Cloud" - an ephemeral place with no fixed location, maintained by third parties.
 
Austin Popper,

With reference to W98 'machines'.

It isn't the machine that is a potential problem, it is the W98 operating system.

W98 is only marginally less prone to crashing than W95. It wasn't until XP came along that things began to stabilize.

You can run W98 on almost any 486 machine. I have a load of them in the loft. I retain W98 because I have some applications that won't transfer to XP .

For the Linux users there is always the Wine application that will allow one to run W95/98 programs.. Though I'm told it is a bit buggy.

INT21
 
Back
Top