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Global Warming & Climate Change: The Phenomenon

Ronson8 said:
http://mysterytopia.com/2008/07/is-nasa-out-of-line-on-global-warming.html
An article that fails to mention the IPCC, oddly enough!

(IPCC: http://www.ipcc-wg2.org/index.html )

But it does mention Dr Roy Spencer, and as one of the comments notes:
Would this be the same Dr. Roy Spencer who believes evolution is just a theory no more or less valid than Creationism?

Not exactly the spokesman you want when going against the scientific consensus.
And the IPCC is the consensus.

Mysterytopia is hardly a website for hard science. In fact, its subject matter seems to cover all sorts of oddball subjects, rather like the FTMB, in fact! 8)
 
_TMS_ said:
Well done Ronson, in at least attempting to offer more than one side of the story.

Here's a similar article, from that most British of technology sites - the Register:

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/06/05 ... ermometer/

It's got a bit more detail, and lots of lovely graphs and charts that would imply we (ie Joe Q Taxpayer) are not receiving all the 'cold' facts.

...
So, who is this, Steve Goddard, the Global Warming sceptic who writes these articles for The Register, which seems so happy to print them, I wondered? Apparently, I'm not alone.
http://www.layscience.net/?q=node/173

Climate Denial at The Register, I - Strange Characters

The Lay Scientist. By Martin - Posted on 07 July 2008

Somebody at British I.T. organ "The Register" seems to have it in for climate scientists (as commenters at Deltoid have mentioned). Whether there's a genuine agenda, or whether it's just a cheap attempt to get attention and generate page views is impossible to say, but in recent months a whole swathe of articles on climate change denial have appeared on the site. I'll be posting a rebuttal on the science later, but in this first post I want to concentrate on the writers.

Here are three of the articles - and notice the pattern.

Are the ice caps melting? Climate science's bipolar disorder by Steven Goddard, July 3rd 2008

Painting by numbers: NASA's peculiar thermometer by Steven Goddard, June 5th 2008

Is the earth getting warmer, or cooler? A tale of two thermometers by Steven Goddard, May 2nd 2008

Yep, stay tuned on Thursday, August 7th for Goddard's latest rant against climate change - it seems El Reg have signed some sort of monthly column contract with him.

But who the hell is he? If you do a search for "Steven Goddard" on Google, it doesn't really show up much, other than his articles in The Reg. If you add "climate" to his name, it gets even weirder. This guy is invisible. The only other trace of him I managed to find was a comment on a blog here, linking back to his article at The Register.

This isn't the first invisible climate contributor on The Register. Shortly after I started this blog, I commented on a weird article attacking climate science as "junk science". The article was credited to John Atkinson, an "I.T. Professional", who once again fails to appear on Google. Since I wrote that piece, I did find one very tenuous link to John Atkinson. It seems that a guy called "John A" is pops up regularly at ClimateAudit, the blog run by Stephen McIntyre, who is known to be a propaganda mouthpiece for powerful oil interests. Interestingly, this "John A" is an I.T. professional too, and in fact ran the Climate Audit website until recently. At the risk of sounding like a bit of a conspiracy theorist... coincidence?!

On a whim I did a little search for Steve Goddard on CA too. I stumbled across a comment on this page, his first and last contibrution to the site (in April), which pointed to this Youtube account, which he created in April, the same month that he popped up on The Register. So Atkinson appears to be the real ex-webmaster of Climate Audit, while Goddard seems to have sprung fully-formed into the intertubes in April this year. That's where the trail falls cold so far, although somebody is hopefully getting in contact with me about Goddard shortly. Frankly, it all smells a bit fishy to me.

...
But, there's more and more than one Steve, too.
http://frankbi.wordpress.com/2008/07/09/the-steve-conspiracy/

The Steve Conspiracy?

International Journal of Inactivism. Posted in ICECAP, Steven Goddard, The Register, science by frankbi on July 9th, 2008

cite as: F. Bi. 2008. The Steve Conspiracy? Intl. J. Inact., 1:94–95

The Lay Scientist wonders who’s behind some of the recent global warming-denying articles on The Register :

" But who the hell is he? If you do a search for “Steven Goddard” on Google, it doesn’t really show up much, other than his articles in The Reg. If you add “climate” to his name, it gets even weirder. This guy is invisible. [...] Goddard seems to have sprung fully-formed into the intertubes in April this year. That’s where the trail falls cold so far, although somebody is hopefully getting in contact with me about Goddard shortly. "

Hmm… Steven Milloy, Stephen McIntyre, and now Steven Goddard? They’re all Steves, and they’re all global warming deniers! No doubt the Eric Conspiracy Secret Labs will be interested in this. :)

So what’s the deal with this “Steven Goddard” character? Apparently, less than 3 hours after The Register ran his 5 Jun article, an ‘executive summary’ of it appeared on the ICECAP site — and it’s written in the first person. Was Goddard moonlighting as a summarizer for ICECAP?

Also, what’s with the name “Steven Goddard”? I’m guessing it’s a pseudonym — “Goddard” is presumably a reference to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies where James Hansen works, while “Steven” may be a reference to Milloy, or McIntyre, or perhaps Project Steve Steve…

Finally, observant readers will note that in Goddard’s 5 Jun offering, the graph captioned “Differences between reported temperature anomalies, NASA, RSS and UAH” leaves out HadCRUT1 — again.
Footnotes

1. The UK Hadley Centre + University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit global temperature anomaly data. A separate description of the data format is available.

...
All very odd.

It seems even the editors of an independent news organ, like The Register, lose their ability to be critical, when asked to print something they want to believe, rather than something that may actually be based on accurate science.

There are the appropriate links and rebuttals at the original article sites.
 
A bit disingenuous of you Pietro? Question the identity by all means, but unfortunately you can't deny the facts. NASA have amended their temperature figures over the last 20 years. Pretty much since the IPCC came into being as it goes. And it's not just Herr Goddard that has spotted this subterfuge, here's another article:

http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/2 ... ature_Data

and another:

http://www.sepp.org/Archive/Publication ... un19a.html

I also think your murky logic in tying this 'goddard' bloke to the Oil lobby is pretty weak. I could offer the same logic when citing your sources, by stating that the current swathe of scientists are being paid (via grants) to prove global warming / climate change is entirely man made.

I havent got much time now, as im about to head off to work, but the initial computer models for global warming had parmeters like all clouds being flat, and absorbing no solar rays (which they aren't and do respectively) and ocean depth (anywhere on earth) not exceeding 500M. They also didnt (and still dont) account for ANY water vapour held in the atmosphere. Hence, they are totally unreliable as a source of informed decision making, yet we will cling on to our false idols, won't we?

Lastly, don't get me wrong - i'm pretty convinced man's burning of fossil fuels has CONTRIBUTED to climate change, but the whole melange is far too complicated to be attributable to just ONE factor - ie us being the smoking gun.
 
_TMS_ said:
A bit disingenuous of you Pietro? Question the identity by all means, but unfortunately you can't deny the facts. NASA have amended their temperature figures over the last 20 years. Pretty much since the IPCC came into being as it goes. And it's not just Herr Goddard that has spotted this subterfuge, here's another article:

http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/2 ... ature_Data

and another:

http://www.sepp.org/Archive/Publication ... un19a.html

...
I'm almost willing to bet that you don't even know what those NASA figures are actually supposed to represent, without looking it up.

It's also worth noting that the links you, give lead back to that Steve McIntyre's article, of 'Climate Audit,' who gets mentioned as being in the pay of Big Oil, in the article from the Lay Scientist website, that I quoted above. So we really seem to be going round in circles.
...

I also think your murky logic in tying this 'goddard' bloke to the Oil lobby is pretty weak. I could offer the same logic when citing your sources, by stating that the current swathe of scientists are being paid (via grants) to prove global warming / climate change is entirely man made.

...
Once again, someone with such a convincing little script running in their own head, that they project what they think someone has Posted into what passes for a reply. Please point out in my Post, above, where I suggest any such thing. It's certainly mentioned in the Lay Scientist piece that I've quoted, in connection with said Steve McIntyre of Climate Audit Dot Org.

You really 'want to believe' don't you? :lol:
 
And that's a bet you'd win Pietro. Although i don't see how 'looking something up', reading around it and then drawing a conclusion can be sneerfully dismissed. i take it you disagree with all methods of pedagogy. Must make for an interesting way of teaching the kids...

Fair do's on me thinking it was YOU who mentioned the climate audit / Big Oil connection, when in fact it was an article you linked to. At least it shows i'm reading (and digesting) YOUR sources.

But climate audit did manage to win (along with bad astronomy) best science blog 2007, so i guess Big Oil spoofed 20,000 plus vote ups

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_Audit

http://2007.weblogawards.org/polls/best ... blog-1.php

Yes, it would appear that we are just talking past each other on this particular issue. But then, you remind me of Alec Baldwin in Team America World Police, ad libbed thus: ' err, multinational corporations, hybrid cars, er stop smoking' ad nauseam.
 
_TMS_ said:
And that's a bet you'd win Pietro. Although i don't see how 'looking something up', reading around it and then drawing a conclusion can be sneerfully dismissed. i take it you disagree with all methods of pedagogy. Must make for an interesting way of teaching the kids...

...
Well then, you'd know that once McIntyre's data adjustments were taken into consideration, they amounted to about an 0.15°C temperature reduction for the years 2000-2006, for the land surface are of the USA (the USA accounts for about 2.7% of the total surface area of the Earth). So, a pretty small temperature variation, on a Global scale. But, still big in propaganda value terms, obviously.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_McIntyre

...

Contributions to the temperature record


McIntyre has supported the efforts of Anthony Watts and SurfaceStations.org to document the quality of weather stations. McIntyre was investigating the claim that NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) software was able to fix any problems with data due to poor quality stations[citation needed].

While studying individual station histories, McIntyre found an anomaly in the US surface temperature anomaly record kept by GISS.[6] GISS investigated, found an error and incorporated a correction in their data set within 2 days.[7] The error affects the US surface temperature anomaly record, which for years 2000-2006 reduces the temperature anomaly by about 0.15°C. It made no perceptible difference to the global mean anomaly, nor to the rankings of the globally warmest years.

...
Always check the fine print. The glaciers are still receding, whatever jiggery pokery is done with numbers.
_TMS_ said:
... But then, you remind me of Alec Baldwin in Team America World Police, ad libbed thus: ' err, multinational corporations, hybrid cars, er stop smoking' ad nauseam.
That one has so far passed me by. But, please, smoke. Smoke all you want. 20, 40, 60 cigs a day. More, if your lungs are up to it. Capstan Full Strength, for preference. I wouldn't want you to think that I begrudged you the right to the simple pleasures of a renewable natural resource. I'm not that kind of spoilsport.
 
Captains’ logs yield climate clues
Records kept by Nelson and Cook are shedding light on climate change
Jonathan Leake

Britain's great seafaring tradition is to provide a unique insight into modern climate change, thanks to thousands of Royal Navy logbooks that have survived from the 17th century onwards.

The logbooks kept by every naval ship, ranging from Nelson’s Victory and Cook’s Endeavour down to the humblest frigate, are emerging as one of the world’s best sources for long-term weather data. The discovery has been made by a group of British academics and Met Office scientists who are seeking new ways to plot historic changes in climate.

“This is a treasure trove,” said Dr Sam Willis, a maritime historian and author who is affiliated with Exeter University’s Centre for Maritime Historical Studies.

“Ships’ officers recorded air pressure, wind strength, air and sea temperature and other weather conditions. From those records scientists can build a detailed picture of past weather and climate.”

A preliminary study of 6,000 logbooks has produced results that raise questions about climate change theories. One paper, published by Dr Dennis Wheeler, a Sunderland University geographer, in the journal The Holocene, details a surge in the frequency of summer storms over Britain in the 1680s and 1690s.

Many scientists believe storms are a consequence of global warming, but these were the coldest decades of the so-called Little Ice Age that hit Europe from about 1600 to 1850.

Wheeler and his colleagues have since won European Union funding to extend this research to 1750. This shows that during the 1730s, Europe underwent a period of rapid warming similar to that recorded recently – and which must have had natural origins.

Hints of such changes are already known from British records, but Wheeler has found they affected much of the north Atlantic too, and he has traced some of the underlying weather systems that caused it. His research will be published in the journal Climatic Change.

The ships’ logs have also shed light on extreme weather events such as hurricanes. It is commonly believed that hurricanes form in the eastern Atlantic and track westwards, so scientists were shocked in 2005 when Hurricane Vince instead moved northeast to hit southern Spain and Portugal.

Many interpreted this as a consequence of climate change; but Wheeler, along with colleagues at the University of Madrid, used old ships’ logs to show that this had also happened in 1842, when a hurricane followed the same trajectory into Andalusia.

The potential of Royal Navy ships’ logs to offer new insights into historic climate change was spotted by Wheeler after he began researching weather conditions during famous naval battles. Later, as global warming moved up the scientific agenda, he and others realised that the same data could shed light on historic climate change.

He said: “British archives contain more than 100,000 Royal Navy logbooks from around 1670 to 1850 alone. They are a stunning resource.”

Most of these earlier documents contain verbal descriptions of weather rather than numerical data, because ships lacked the instruments to take numerical readings. However, Wheeler and his colleagues found early Royal Navy officers recorded weather in consistent language.

“It means we can deduce numerical values for wind strength and direction, temperature and rainfall,” he said. The information will ultimately contribute to the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmos-phere Data Set, a global database maintained by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a US government agency.

Wheeler makes clear he has no doubts about modern human-induced climate change. He said: “Global warming is a reality, but what our data shows is that climate science is complex and that it is wrong to take particular events and link them to CO2 emissions. These records will give us a much clearer picture of what is really happening.

The Met Office has also set up a project, part-funded by Defra, the environment ministry, to study 900 logbooks kept by the East India Company on voyages between Europe and the Far East between 1780 and 1840. Its vessels carried thermometers and barometers so the data is of higher quality.

Faced with logs taken over so many voyages, the researchers have had to be selective. One of the most avid recorders of such data was Nelson himself, whose personal logbook records the air pressure and other readings he took up to several times daily.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/e ... 449527.ece
 
Ronson8 said:
There are four internationally recognised sources of data on world temperatures, but the one most often cited by supporters of global warming is that run by James Hansen of Nasa's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)....

Did you check any of this befofe you copied it?

A quick look at the IPCC's data sources gives this list:

http://www.ipcc-data.org/obs/index.html

The CRU Global Climate Dataset 1901-2000 Monthly Time Series

Global Historic Climatology Network (GHCN)

International Research Institute for Climate Prediction/Lamont-Doherty Earth Observation at University of Columbia

NCEP Re-analysis Data

British Atmospheric Data Centre (BADC)

Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC)

National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Data Support System

Climatic Research Unit (CRU) data

World Data Center - A. Meteorology

Climate Diagnostics Centre at NOAA

Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) at NOAA


- So I think this looks like rubbish from the start, without even looking into how he treats the GISS data. It's based ona vast number of different sources, and the picture is a depressingly consistent one.
 
_TMS_ said:
i'm pretty convinced man's burning of fossil fuels has CONTRIBUTED to climate change, but the whole melange is far too complicated to be attributable to just ONE factor - ie us being the smoking gun.

That's pretty irrelevant though really - the question now is whether we can affect climate change by altering CO2 emissions. Are you on board for that?
 
A quote from Rynners post above...
Wheeler and his colleagues have since won European Union funding to extend this research to 1750. This shows that during the 1730s, Europe underwent a period of rapid warming similar to that recorded recently – and which must have had natural origins.
How do you account for that?
 
wembley8 said:
_TMS_ said:
i'm pretty convinced man's burning of fossil fuels has CONTRIBUTED to climate change, but the whole melange is far too complicated to be attributable to just ONE factor - ie us being the smoking gun.

That's pretty irrelevant though really - the question now is whether we can affect climate change by altering CO2 emissions. Are you on board for that?

From the BBc website ice core drilling story Pietro linked to earlier:

Over the last 800,000 years the Earth has, on the whole, been a pretty chilly place. Interglacials - or warm spells - have come every 100,000 years and have generally been short-lived.

Over the last 400,000 years, interglacials have lasted about 10,000 years, with climates similar to this one. Before that they were less warm, but lasted slightly longer.

We have already been in an interglacial for about 10,000 years, so we should - according to the pattern - be heading for an ice age. But we are not.

The Epica team has noticed the interglacial period of 400,000 years ago closely matches our own - because the shape of the Earth's orbit was the same then as it is now.

That warm spell lasted a whopping 28,000 years - so ours probably will, too.


So i'd say it's mostly to do with that big ball of fire in the sky...
 
Who is behind climate change deniers?
David McKnight
August 2, 2008

When the tobacco industry was feeling the heat from scientists who showed that smoking caused cancer, it took decisive action.

It engaged in a decades-long public relations campaign to undermine the medical research and discredit the scientists. The aim was not to prove tobacco harmless but to cast doubt on the science.

In May this year, the multibillion-dollar oil giant Exxon-Mobil acknowledged that it had been doing something similar. It announced that it would cease funding nine groups that had fuelled a global campaign to deny climate change.


Exxon's decision comes after a shareholder revolt by members of the Rockefeller family and big superannuation funds to get the oil giant to take climate change more seriously. Exxon (once Standard Oil) was founded by the legendary John D. Rockefeller. Last year, the chairman of the US House of Representatives oversight committee on science and technology, Brad Miller, said Exxon's support for sceptics "appears to be an effort to distort public discussion".

The funding of an array of think tanks and institutes that house climate sceptics and deniers also worried Britain's premier scientific body, the Royal Society. It found that in 2005 Exxon distributed nearly $3 million to 39 groups that "misrepresented the science of climate change by outright denial of the evidence that greenhouse gases are driving climate change". It asked Exxon to stop the funding and its protests helped force Exxon's recent retreat.

The chief scientist of New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric research, Dr Jim Salinger, knows all about misrepresentation. Two months ago, he was named by an Exxon-funded group, the Heartland Institute, as a scientist whose work undermined the theory that burning carbon was a cause of global warming.

The Heartland Institute - essentially a free market lobby - emphasises that "the climate is always changing". Salinger's research studied variation in climate, so his research was enrolled in the denial campaign.

Variations in the climate are normal, Salinger said, but this did not in any way weaken conclusions about the dangers of burning oil and coal. "Global warming is real," he said, and demanded reference to his work be removed. The institute refused. The Heartland Institute received almost $800,000 from Exxon, according to Greenpeace's research based on Exxon's corporate giving disclosures.

Another regular piece of evidence in the denial lobby's PR campaign is the "Oregon Petition". This urges the US Government to reject the Kyoto Protocol and claims there is "no convincing scientific evidence" for global warming. It is said to be signed by 31,000 graduates, most of whom appear to have nothing to do with climate science.

The petition originated in 1998 with a scientist, Dr Frederick Seitz, who had been president of the US National Academy of Science in the 1960s (and a tobacco consultant in the 1970s). The petition was accompanied by a purported review of the science that was co-published by the George C. Marshall Institute. This institute received at least $715,000 from Exxon Mobil since 1998.

Claims about the world cooling, not warming, are common in the world of deniers. Cardinal George Pell referred to this possibility recently.

In his recent book Heat, George Monbiot gives the example of the TV presenter and botanist, David Bellamy, who is also a climate sceptic. He told the New Scientist in 2005 that most glaciers in the world are growing, not shrinking. He said his evidence came from the World Glacier Monitoring Service in Switzerland, a reputable body. When Monbiot checked the service they said that the Bellamy claim was "complete bullshit". Glaciers are retreating.

In Australia, the main group that tries to undermine the science of global warming is the Lavoisier Group. It maintains a website with links to the Competitive Enterprise Institute (over $2 million from Exxon), Science and Environmental Policy Project ($20,000) and the Centre for the Study of Carbon Dioxide (at least $100,000).

The Lavoisier group is certainly influential in the Federal Opposition. A senior figure in the group told Guy Pearse, author of High and Dry, a study of climate policy in Australia, that there "is an understanding in cabinet that all the science is crap".

But perhaps the oil companies' PR campaign is not the main reason for the success of the climate change deniers. There are at least three others. First, the implications of the science are frightening. Shifting to renewable energy will be costly and disruptive. Second, doubt is an easy product to sell. Climate denial tells us what we all secretly want to hear. Third, science is portrayed by the free market right as a political "orthodoxy" rather than objective knowledge.

The tide slowly turned on tobacco denial and the science was accepted in the end. But climate is different. There are no "smoke-free areas" on the planet. Climate denial may turn out to be the world's most deadly PR campaign.

David McKnight is an associate professor at the University of NSW. He researches media, including public relations, and is the author of Beyond Right and Left: New Politics and the Culture Wars.

http://www.watoday.com.au/opinion/who-i ... ml?page=-1
 
_TMS said:
So i'd say it's mostly to do with that big ball of fire in the sky...

Well, you're in a small mimority there because they've been monitoring solar output pretty closely for some years and it's not coprrelating with climate change.

You didn't answer my question though: the question now is whether we can affect climate change by altering CO2 emissions. Are you on board for that?
 
Ronson8 said:
A quote from Rynners post above...
Wheeler and his colleagues have since won European Union funding to extend this research to 1750. This shows that during the 1730s, Europe underwent a period of rapid warming similar to that recorded recently – and which must have had natural origins.
How do you account for that?

Check out the fluctuations of the period around the Little Ice Age and how they compare to the current warming:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age
 
wembley8 said:
_TMS said:
So i'd say it's mostly to do with that big ball of fire in the sky...

Well, you're in a small mimority there because they've been monitoring solar output pretty closely for some years and it's not coprrelating with climate change.

You didn't answer my question though: the question now is whether we can affect climate change by altering CO2 emissions. Are you on board for that?

Actually, some people think the sun's current sunspot cycle (www.spaceweather.com) IS correlating with the temperature reduction that the earth is currently experiencing. it doesn't correlate exactly because of the size and complexity of the earth's weather systems.

http://solar-center.stanford.edu/sun-on ... o2.svg.png

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/tempe ... nhshgl.gif

*data obtained within the last 10/15 years is not fully understood yet, in terms of sunspot activity and global temperatures, but until about 1992 the picture is clear enough - however my jury is still out, but the graph here tells a thousand words.

Since 2000, the measurements from the climate research unit of the uinversity of East Anglia actually show a FALLING of temperature across both the northern and southern hemipheres. They are naturally focussing on the noughties having many of the highest average temperatures on record, but they're hardly going to slit their throats - from a funding point of view - by focussing on an inconvenient statistical truth (ie the temperature globally is reducing)*

To answer your last point, i personally do take responsibility for my energy usage. In Britain, we're told the average energy bill is about 1000 quid per year. My last year's gas supply? 107 pounds. My electricity? 87 quid. I drive a van for work and have an Aprilia 125RS for a bit of fun. i use public transport whenever practical. i buy most of my clothes and books from charity shops. My "carbon footprint" is pretty much as tiny as i can make it. i have taken personal responsibility for my actions. The current green taxes / carbon offsetting etcn are an enormous swindle set up by the UK government as a way of making our fears for the environment into a tax raising opportunity. The Uk could re-commision all the coal fired power stations and we'd still only contribute 1% of co2 emissions worldwide (up from 0.25%), but instead of this 15-20,000 vulnerable people will die this winter because they cant afford to heat their homes. That's what i find iniquitous. The developing world isnt going to stop because we ask them nicely, so to send our economy into a nosedive for the nebulous banner of "global warming" is totally facile. In about 10 years time, when the UK really is in the shit, people will come around to this way of thinking.
 
_TMS_ said:
The current green taxes / carbon offsetting etcn are an enormous swindle set up by the UK government as a way of making our fears for the environment into a tax raising opportunity. The Uk could re-commision all the coal fired power stations and we'd still only contribute 1% of co2 emissions worldwide (up from 0.25%), but instead of this 15-20,000 vulnerable people will die this winter because they cant afford to heat their homes. That's what i find iniquitous. The developing world isnt going to stop because we ask them nicely, so to send our economy into a nosedive for the nebulous banner of "global warming" is totally facile. In about 10 years time, when the UK really is in the shit, people will come around to this way of thinking.

I'm totally in agreement with you there, TMS.
I think we are already in the shit economically, and green policies are simply making it worse. I sincerely hope the next government will be a different one, and I hope they will reverse a lot of the damage that has already been done, including taking less notice of the green lobby (no, I'm not totally anti-green, but I do think the present government pays them rather too much attention).

Worth noting is that the world in previous ages has been a much warmer place, and has also had a much, much higher level of CO2 in the atmosphere. I think (without checking) that CO2 levels right now are at a paltry 2% of the Earth's atmosphere. Whilst I don't deny it's happening, I just think global warming is part of a natural cycle, and whatever we do either way won't change things a bit.

What is far more worrying than climate change or oil running out is the mass disappearance of pollinating insects. I think we need to sort that one out first.
 
Four years ago:
CO2 levels hit peak at Hawaii observatory
Federal climatologists concerned about global trend
updated 1:17 a.m. ET March 21, 2004

MAUNA LOA OBSERVATORY, Hawaii - Carbon dioxide, the gas largely blamed for global warming, has reached record-high levels in the atmosphere after growing at an accelerated pace in the past year, say scientists monitoring the sky from this 2-mile-high (3.2-kilometer-high) station atop a Hawaiian volcano.

The reason for the faster buildup of the most important “greenhouse gas” will require further analysis, the U.S. government experts say.

“But the big picture is that CO2 is continuing to go up,” said Russell Schnell, deputy director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s climate monitoring laboratory in Boulder, Colo., which operates the Mauna Loa Observatory on the island of Hawaii.

Carbon dioxide, mostly from burning of coal, gasoline and other fossil fuels, traps heat that otherwise would radiate into space. Global temperatures increased by about 1 degree Fahrenheit (0.6 degrees Celsius) during the 20th century, and international panels of scientists sponsored by world governments have concluded that most of the warming probably was due to greenhouse gases.

The climatologists forecast continued temperature rises that will disrupt the climate, cause seas to rise and lead to other unpredictable consequences — unpredictable in part because of uncertainties in computer modeling of future climate.

Rising concentrations
Before the industrial age and extensive use of fossil fuels, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere stood at about 280 parts per million, scientists have determined.

Average readings at the 11,141-foot Mauna Loa Observatory, where carbon dioxide density peaks each northern winter, hovered around 379 parts per million on Friday, compared with about 376 a year ago.

That year-to-year increase of about 3 parts per million is considerably higher than the average annual increase of 1.8 parts per million over the past decade, and markedly more accelerated than the 1-part-per-million annual increase recorded a half-century ago, when observations were first made here.


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4570557/
Two years ago
Sharp rise in CO2 levels recorded
By David Shukman
BBC science correspondent

Air samples have been taken from Colorado's Rocky Mountains
US climate scientists have recorded a significant rise in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, pushing it to a new record level.

BBC News has learned the latest data shows CO2 levels now stand at 381 parts per million (ppm) - 100ppm above the pre-industrial average.

The research indicates that 2005 saw one of the largest increases on record - a rise of 2.6ppm.

The figures are seen as a benchmark for climate scientists around the globe.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) has been analysing samples of air taken from all over the world, including America's Rocky Mountains.

The chief carbon dioxide analyst for Noaa says the latest data confirms a worrying trend that recent years have, on average, recorded double the rate of increase from just 30 years ago.

"We don't see any sign of a decrease; in fact, we're seeing the opposite, the rate of increase is accelerating," Dr Pieter Tans told the BBC.

The precise level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is of global concern because climate scientists fear certain thresholds may be "tipping points" that trigger sudden changes.

The UK government's chief scientific adviser, Professor Sir David King, said the new data highlighted the importance of taking urgent action to limit carbon emissions.

"Today we're over 380 ppm," he said. "That's higher than we've been for over a million years, possibly 30 million years. Mankind is changing the climate."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4803460.stm
 
British temperature 'could rise by up to 7F'
Britain should prepare for a dangerous temperature rise of up to 7F (4C), one of the Government's chief scientific advisers has warned.
By Laura Clout
Last Updated: 7:58AM BST 07 Aug 2008

Professor Bob Watson said the country would have to change its policy on flood protection, agriculture and coastal erosion to meet the threat.

Prof Watson, the chief scientific adviser to the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, said the EU commitment to limit any temperature rise to 3.5F (2C) is ambitious and Britain should instead plan for a worst-case scenario.

"There is no doubt that we should aim to limit changes in the global mean surface temperature to 2C above pre-industrial," he told the Guardian.

"But given this is an ambitious target, and we don't know in detail how to limit greenhouse gas emissions to realise a 2 degree target, we should be prepared to adapt to 4C."

The global impact of a temperature rise of 4C would be disastrous, wiping out hundreds of species, causing extreme food and water shortages in some countries and leading to catastrophic floods that would displace hundreds of millions of people. Warming would be much more severe towards the poles, which could accelerate melting of the Greenland and west Antarctic ice sheets.

Britain would be most affected by rising sea levels and inland flooding. Climate modellers also predict drier summers and an increase in heavy rainfall in winter.

Prof Watson, who is a former science adviser to President Clinton and ex-chief scientist at the World Bank, said the UK should take a lead in research on carbon capture and storage.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2513803 ... to-7F.html
 
Reality in Arctic temperature trends - Warwick Hughes

Another link to a scientist that's obviously in the pocket of the "Global Corporations", just a quick taste of the total piece:

'I am becoming increasingly concerned about the number of fearful scientists. Unfortunately, the overwhelming majority of climate science is funded by government, and the competition for funding dollars is intense. Focusing global media attention on the state of the cryosphere is the way to keep funding dollars flowing to where the temperature is cold, so I understand the pressure to spice up plain old boring science with a little dash of fear.'

http://www.warwickhughes.com/cool/cool13.htm

And his homepage:

http://www.warwickhughes.com/
 
Clash of the fiercest predators as shark eats polar bear
By Daniel Howden
Tuesday, 12 August 2008

Global warming may not be the only threat to the polar bear. Scientists are puzzling over the discovery of the jawbone of a young polar bear in the stomach of a Greenland shark, a species that thrives in the cold waters of the far north.

The find suggests that the polar bear may have a serious challenger to its place at the top of the Arctic food chain. Until now, only killer whales were thought to offer a threat to Ursus maritimus as the Arctic's top predator.

Kit Kovacs, a seal expert at the Norwegian Polar Institute in Tromso, stumbled across the polar bear remains while attempting to find out who or what was killing large numbers of harbour seals in the Arctic archipelago of Svalbard.

The Greenland shark, one of two species of sleeper sharks, was the obvious suspect, she said, so they performed autopsies to see what they had been eating. That's when they found the polar bear bone. "We were so shocked we were laughing," Ms Kovacs said.

The prospect of a marine battle between the world's largest land predator and the Greenland shark which can grow to a length of more than six metres, is a true clash of the titans. And it is one that is likely to have wildlife film-makers rushing for the North Pole.

Climate change has been melting polar ice cover and shrinking the natural habitat for the polar bear, now regarded as an endangered species. With polar sea ice expected to disappear altogether during the Arctic summer within a generation there is speculation that the bears may be spending longer in the water, while hunting or moving between icebergs. This could make them a potential target for large marine predators. Warmer waters may also be tempting more and larger sharks further north.

Shark experts were unconvinced and think it more likely that the shark would have fed on a bear's carcass, rather than killed a live bear, as even a young animal would be a fierce opponent.

Steve Campana, head of the Canadian shark research laboratory at the Department of Fisheries and Oceans, said he had not heard of sharks attacking a bear before. "It sounds like a scavenge," he told Reuters, adding that it was a "million-dollar question" for researchers as to whether Greenland sharks were preying on polar bears.

Ms Kovacs continued, however, to stand by her theory. Sleeper sharks, which are among the longest living of their species, can descend to depths of 2,200 metres, but seal blubber found in their stomachs by researchers indicates that they are seeking food in shallower waters. "We didn't know they went to the surface to feed," she said. "We can't say whether or not the shark took a swimming young bear or ate a carcass."

One clue may come from what the scientists did not find in their examination of the shark: anthropods, tiny creatures that feast on carcasses, gaining access through eyes or belly buttons. Scavengers are usually full of anthropods but none were found in the stomach with the polar bear.

"We don't know how active these sharks are as predators," Ms Kovacs said. That is the question scientists will seek to answer.

Sleeper sharks are among the most numerous large sharks in the world and are prolific feeders which have thrived while other shark populations have plummeted.

What Ms Kovacs and her research team have found suggests that they are also much more skilled hunters than was previously believed. Although no one has witnessed a kill, the scientists' findings appear to show that sleeper sharks can catch live seals, which are fast and agile prey.ball."

The discovery of the polar bear's jawbone is likely to leave scientists guessing for some time, but Ms Kovacs said: "I won't be going swimming there again... They are incredibly cryptic, dark sharks, who move slowly and get in close."

http://www.independent.co.uk/environmen ... 91512.html
 
The polar bear population is at an all time high. Therefore the chances of a shark catching one are greater.
 
Full text at link.

Hot And Cold: Circulation Of Atmosphere Affected Mediterranean Climate During Last Ice Age

ScienceDaily (Aug. 27, 2008) — A new study published in the scientific journal Science reveals the circulation of the atmosphere over the Mediterranean during the last ice age, 23,000 to 19,000 years ago, and how this affected the local climate.

This innovative study paves the way for future interdisciplinary efforts to understand and predict regional climate change, and is co-authored by Professor Eelco Rohling of the University of Southampton School of Ocean and Earth Science, based at the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has identified the Mediterranean as a “future climate hot spot” likely to suffer increasingly from severe droughts, heat waves and wildfires, due to global climate change. This is potentially bad news for the many people who now live in the region.

The new work gives important clues about regional rainfall patterns in the past. This will help scientists check computer simulations of the Mediterranean climate, which is essential for predicting and planning for future climate in the region.

The team led by geologist Joachim Kuhlemann involves scientists from the University of Tübingen, the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, and the Institute of Particle Physics in Zürich. The scientists have assembled information on the altitudes of glaciers in mountains around the Mediterranean during the last ice age so as to help reconstruct climate.

www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/08/080826172723.htm
 
ramonmercado said:
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has identified the Mediterranean as a “future climate hot spot” likely to suffer increasingly from severe droughts, heat waves and wildfires, due to global climate change. This is potentially bad news for the many people who now live in the region.

Ha! Up yours with your Mediterranean diet and all your boozing and smoking without getting sick and....ooh...why's my arm gone all tingly... :shock:
 
the whole climate change debate is really odd

the world climate has constantly changed throughout history.
to say well this are has ice thats melting or that area is dryer,has happened throughout history.
yes we may be accelerating the temperature but to assume that every part of the earth should stay exactly the way it is for all eternity is a total nonsense.
 
TinFinger said:
the whole climate change debate is really odd

the world climate has constantly changed throughout history.
to say well this are has ice thats melting or that area is dryer,has happened throughout history.
yes we may be accelerating the temperature but to assume that every part of the earth should stay exactly the way it is for all eternity is a total nonsense.
Not so odd if its effects happen to rain, or not (as the case may be), on your parade. It's not a matter of expecting the climate to remain the same, but rather of fearing the consequences of rapid and unpredictable 'chaotic' change, on delicately balanced ecosystems, already under enormous pressure from human depredation.

Unfortunately, the chances of the World's climate being 'tipped' into a completely new climate system, seem to be very high. With potentially catastrophic consequences for billions of people.

It may not be the case that bad things always happen to other people, or that any changes may happen sometime in the future. They may already be happening.
 
Talking of 'tipping points,' that ice keeps melting.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7585645.stm

Arctic ice 'is at tipping point'
BBC News website. By Richard Black. Environment correspondent. 28 August 2008

Arctic sea ice has shrunk to the second smallest extent since satellite records began, US scientists have revealed.

The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) says that the ice-covered area has fallen below its 2005 level, which was the second lowest on record.

Melting has occurred earlier in the year than usual, meaning that the iced area could become even smaller than last September, the lowest recorded.

Researchers say the Arctic is now at a climatic "tipping point".

"We could very well be in that quick slide downwards in terms of passing a tipping point," said Mark Serreze, a senior scientist at the Colorado-based NSIDC.

"It's tipping now. We're seeing it happen now," he told the Associated Press news agency.

Under covered

The area covered by ice on 26 August measured 5.26 million sq km (2.03 million sq miles), just below the 2005 low of 5.32 million sq km (2.05 million sq).

But the 2005 low came in late September; and with the 2008 graph pointing downwards, the NSIDC team believes last year's record could still be broken even though air temperatures, both in the Arctic and globally, have been lower than last year.

Last September, the ice covered just 4.13 million sq km (1.59 million sq miles), the smallest extent seen since satellite imaging began 30 years ago. The 1980 figure was 7.8 million sq km (3 million sq miles).

Graph: The 2008 graph shows a steeper decline than at the same time last year

Most of the cover consists of relatively thin ice that formed within a single winter and melts more easily than ice that accumulated over many years.

Irrespective of whether the 2007 record falls in the next few weeks, the long-term trend is obvious, scientists said; the ice is declining more sharply than even a decade ago, and the Arctic region will progressively turn to open water in summers.

A few years ago, scientists were predicting ice-free Arctic summers by about 2080.

Then computer models started projecting earlier dates, around 2030 to 2050; and some researchers now believe it could happen within five years.


That will bring economic opportunities, including the chance to drill for oil and gas. Burning that oil and gas would increase levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere still further.

The absence of summer ice would have impacts locally and globally.

The iconography of polar bears unable to find ice is by now familiar; but other species, including seals, would also face drastic changes to their habitat, as would many Arctic peoples.

Globally, the Arctic melt will reinforce warming because open water absorbs more of the Sun's energy than ice does.

[email protected].
It's not change that's worrying, it's the speed of that change.
 
the only certainty is that the climate WILL change regardless of human activities
yes we are more than likely accelerating the procces but its going to happen regardless,just as it always has.

for this we have solid proof.

my point is that just becasuse we can measure the various variables dont mean they should or will ever remain the same.this imo is the root of all the hulabaloo,they have discovered the stats have changed thus disaster ignoring the fact that they have always changes throughout history.

yes its accelerating but is has done before and am sure it will again with or without our help.imo a far greater danger is the colapse of our magnetosphere (polar shift)which has been recorded to be a regular occurence.it also will happen if we like it or not.
 
TinFinger said:
the only certainty is that the climate WILL change regardless of human activities
yes we are more than likely accelerating the procces but its going to happen regardless,just as it always has.

for this we have solid proof.

my point is that just becasuse we can measure the various variables dont mean they should or will ever remain the same.this imo is the root of all the hulabaloo,they have discovered the stats have changed thus disaster ignoring the fact that they have always changes throughout history.

yes its accelerating but is has done before and am sure it will again with or without our help.imo a far greater danger is the colapse of our magnetosphere (polar shift)which has been recorded to be a regular occurence.it also will happen if we like it or not.

Of course there will be climate change which happens without the input of mankind but nonetheless the pace of the predicted change, if true, must surely be a cause for concern. Delaying change may give us the time to plan more effectively for any future change.
 
Nine polar bears at risk of drowning in global warming meltdown
Last Updated: 12:01am BST 30/08/2008

Nine polar bears are at risk of drowning after the ice floe where they lived melted because of global warming, scientists have said.

The bears were spotted in open ocean off the northwest coast of Alaska, miles from their normal hunting area by US government oil survey scientists flying over the Chukchi sea.

Although land was initially only 60 miles away from the bears' former home, they were driven north by their homing instinct towards the edge of the Arctic ice shelf.

Polar bears are renowned as strong swimmers but the 'lost' bears now face an epic 400-mile swim back to shore.

According to WWF, the World Wide Fund for Nature, one group of bears is known to have swum 100 miles but they arrived exhausted and several drowned on the way. :(

In May, the US Department of the Interior listed polar bears as threatened under the Endangered Species Act because the Arctic ice they hunt on is melting so quickly.

"The Arctic is a vast ocean and to find nine bears swimming in one area is extremely worrying because it means that dozens more are probably in the same predicament," said Margaret Williams, Director of WWF's Alaska office.

Dr Williams said animal groups were considering asking the US government to send a Coast Guard ship, like a modern Noah's ark, to rescue some of the bears.

Arctic scientists said they feared the annual ice-melt had passed its 'tipping point' where not enough freezes each winter to make up for what melted the previous summer.

As less ice freezes, the winter sea remains warmer, and becomes hotter the following summer causing even more ice to melt. Senior scientist Dr Mark Serreze said: "The summer melting used to slow down by the beginning of September.

"We thought it was slowing this year, but it's suddenly sped up instead.'

The Chukchi Sea off Alaska's northwest coast is home to one of two populations of Alaska polar bears. Professor Richard Steiner, of the University of Alaska's Marine Advisory Programme, said: 'The bottom line here is that polar bears need sea ice, sea ice is decaying, and the bears are in very serious trouble.'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.j ... lar130.xml
 
How do they manage in integalacials anyway?

Im sure my nervous Inuit friends will not miss them.
 
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