Firstly, those who say oil is going to run out in 20-30 years have been saying that for even longer. Technology continues to improve in both exploration for and exploitation of oil, plus the massive reserves remaining in Saudi and now discovered in the Caspian region will keep those 5 litre V8s going for quite some time yet. The US, in a bid to reduce the influence of OPEC on the oil price, is opening up its protected wilderness reserves for more prospecting, so a good deal more could turn up there. I think a more credible threat to oil rather than it running out is the middle east situation getting so dire that a future administration throws its hands up in the air and decides to stop being dependent on foreign oil altogether and promotes fuel cell technology and other alternatives.
Regarding this pipeline, it's always fraught with difficutlies, particularly as the terrain is not the friendliest to pipelines, not to mention the habit of locals in other parts of the world of tapping the line for their own use. I guess the only logical reason for putting a line there is that apart from the Black Sea it's the only way out of the Caspian region whilst bypassing the Middle East altogether. Why have an alternative to the Black Sea? Control over an oil outlet in a US friendly port perhaps? I'm just speculating here. Maybe Bush doesn't quite trust Putin yet, but expect to see some energy-related partnerships with Russia as the US looks outside the Middle East to keep their 4x4s going.