I wrote about The Independent's previous article on the subject, and Iain Stewart's final part of Earth - The Climate Wars, here:
Methane Gas: The Great Escape (24 September 2008)
Methane Gas: The Great Escape (24 September 2008)
Australian aims to breed 'green' sheep that burp less
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8385068.stm
Livestock account for a significant amount of Austalian emissions
Australian scientists have said they are hoping to breed sheep that burp less as part of efforts to tackle climate change.
The scientists have been trying to identify a genetic link that causes some sheep to belch less than others.
Burping is a far greater cause of emissions in sheep than flatulence, they say.
About 16% of Australia's greenhouse emissions come from agriculture, says the department of climate change.
Australia's Sheep Cooperative Research Council says 66% of agricultural emissions are released as methane from the gut of livestock.
"Ninety per cent of the methane that sheep and cattle and goats produce comes from the rumen, and that's burped out," John Goopy from the New South Wales Department of Industry and Investment told ABC.
"Not much goes behind - that's horses."
The scientists in New South Wales have been conducting experiments in specially designed pens where they measure how much gas sheep emit by burping.
They have found, from tests on 200 sheep so far, that the more they eat, the more they belch.
But even taking that into account, there appear to be "significant differences" between individual animals, Mr Goopy said.
The scientists' goal in the long term is to breed sheep that produce less methane, which produces many times more global warming than carbon dioxide.
"We're looking for natural variations so we'll steer the population that way, " said Roger Hegarty, from the Sheep Cooperative Research Council.
Arctic Methane On The Move?
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar ... -the-move/
By Real Climate
06 March, 2010
Real Climate
Methane is like the radical wing of the carbon cycle, in today’s atmosphere a stronger greenhouse gas per molecule than CO2, and an atmospheric concentration that can change more quickly than CO2 can. There has been a lot of press coverage of a new paper in Science this week called “Extensive methane venting to the atmosphere from sediments of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf”, which comes on the heels of a handful of interrelated methane papers in the last year or so. Is now the time to get frightened?
No. CO2 is plenty to be frightened of, while methane is frosting on the cake. Imagine you are in a Toyota on the highway at 70 miles per hour approaching stopped traffic, and you find that the brake pedal is broken. This is CO2. Then you figure out that the accelerator has also jammed, so that by the time you hit the truck in front of you, you will be going 80 miles per hour instead of 70. This is methane. Is now the time to get worried? No, you should already have been worried by the broken brake pedal. Methane sells newspapers, but it’s not the big story, nor does it look to be a game changer to the big story, which is CO2.
For some background on methane hydrates we can refer you here. This weeks’ Science paper is by Shakhova et al, a follow on to a 2005 GRL paper. The observation in 2005 was elevated concentrations of methane in ocean waters on the Siberian shelf, presumably driven by outgassing from the sediments and driving excess methane to the atmosphere. The new paper adds observations of methane spikes in the air over the water, confirming the methane’s escape from the water column, instead of it being trapped by fresh water and oxidized to CO2 in the water, for example. The new data enable the methane flux from this region to the atmosphere to be quantified, and they find that this region rivals the methane flux from the whole rest of the ocean.
What’s missing from these studies themselves is evidence that the Siberian shelf degassing is new, a climate feedback, rather than simply nature-as-usual, driven by the retreat of submerged permafrost left over from the last ice age. However, other recent papers speak to this question.
Westbrook et al 2009, published stunning sonar images of bubble plumes rising from sediments off Spitzbergen, Norway. The bubbles are rising from a line on the sea floor that corresponds to the boundary of methane hydrate stability, a boundary that would retreat in a warming water column. A modeling study by Reagan and Moridis 2009 supports the idea that the observed bubbles could be in response to observed warming of the water column driven by anthropogenic warming.
Another recent paper, from Dlugokencky et al. 2009, describes an uptick in the methane concentration in the air in 2007, and tries to figure out where it’s coming from. The atmospheric methane concentration rose from the preanthropogenic until about the year 1993, at which point it rather abruptly plateaued. Methane is a transient gas in the atmosphere, so it ought to plateau if the emission flux is steady, but the shape of the concentration curve suggested some sudden decrease in the emission rate, stemming from the collapse of economic activity in the former Soviet bloc, or by drying of wetlands, or any of several other proposed and unresolved explanations. (Maybe the legislature in South Dakota should pass a law that methane is driven by astrology!) A previous uptick in the methane concentration in 1998 could be explained in terms of the effect of el Nino on wetlands, but the uptick in 2007 is not so simple to explain. The concentration held steady in 2008, meaning at least that interannual variability is important in the methane cycle, and making it hard to say if the long-term average emission rate is rising in a way that would be consistent with a new carbon feedback.
Anyway, so far it is at most a very small feedback. The Siberian Margin might rival the whole rest of the world ocean as a methane source, but the ocean source overall is much smaller than the land source. Most of the methane in the atmosphere comes from wetlands, natural and artificial associated with rice agriculture. The ocean is small potatoes, and there is enough uncertainty in the methane budget to accommodate adjustments in the sources without too much overturning of apple carts.
Could this be the first modest sprout of what will grow into a huge carbon feedback in the future? It is possible, but two things should be kept in mind. One is that there’s no reason to fixate on methane in particular. Methane is a transient gas in the atmosphere, while CO2 essentially accumulates in the atmosphere / ocean carbon cycle, so in the end the climate forcing from the accumulating CO2 that methane oxidizes into may be as important as the transient concentration of methane itself. The other thing to remember is that there’s no reason to fixate on methane hydrates in particular, as opposed to the carbon stored in peats in Arctic permafrosts for example. Peats take time to degrade but hydrate also takes time to melt, limited by heat transport. They don’t generally explode instantaneously.
For methane to be a game-changer in the future of Earth’s climate, it would have to degas to the atmosphere catastrophically, on a time scale that is faster than the decadal lifetime of methane in the air. So far no one has seen or proposed a mechanism to make that happen.
Dlugokencky et al., Observational constraints on recent increases in the atmospheric CH4 burden. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 36, L18803, doi:10.1029/2009GL039780, 2009
Reagan, M. and G. Moridis, Large-scale simulation of methane hydrate dissociation along the West Spitsbergen Margin, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 36, L23612, doi:10.1029/2009GL041332, 2009
Shakova et al., Extensive Methane Venting to the Atmosphere from Sediments of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, Science 237: 1246-1250, 2010
Shakova et al., The distribution of methane on the Siberian Arctic shelves: Implications for the marine methane cycle, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 32, L09601, doi:10.1029/2005GL022751, 2005
Westbrook, G., et al, Escape of methane gas from the seabed along the West Spitsbergen continental margin, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 36, L15608, doi:10.1029/2009GL039191, 2009
rynner2 said:Shock as retreat of Arctic sea ice releases deadly greenhouse gas
Russian research team astonished after finding 'fountains' of methane bubbling to surface
Although methane has been found rising from the sea floor before, I think the 'shocking' element here is the sheer volume discovered,SHAYBARSABE said:Not a surprise. These reseachers must be easily "shocked".rynner2 said:Shock as retreat of Arctic sea ice releases deadly greenhouse gas
Russian research team astonished after finding 'fountains' of methane bubbling to surface
A 1,000m diameter seeper could release 10,000 times the volume of methane released by a 10m diameter seeper if the flow rates per square metre are similar."Earlier we found torch-like structures like this but they were only tens of metres in diameter. This is the first time that we've found continuous, powerful and impressive seeping structures, more than 1,000 metres in diameter. It's amazing," Dr Semiletov said. "I was most impressed by the sheer scale and high density of the plumes...."
The Calthrate Gun Hypothesisrynner2 said:Although methane has been found rising from the sea floor before, I think the 'shocking' element here is the sheer volume discovered,SHAYBARSABE said:Not a surprise. These reseachers must be easily "shocked".rynner2 said:Shock as retreat of Arctic sea ice releases deadly greenhouse gas
Russian research team astonished after finding 'fountains' of methane bubbling to surface
A 1,000m diameter seeper could release 10,000 times the volume of methane released by a 10m diameter seeper if the flow rates per square metre are similar."Earlier we found torch-like structures like this but they were only tens of metres in diameter. This is the first time that we've found continuous, powerful and impressive seeping structures, more than 1,000 metres in diameter. It's amazing," Dr Semiletov said. "I was most impressed by the sheer scale and high density of the plumes...."
The other 'shocking' aspect is that this methane release seems to have been triggered by the ongoing GW, and this creates a positive feedback reinforcing GW, possibly leading to a catastrophic runaway effect.
rynner2 said:Although methane has been found rising from the sea floor before, I think the 'shocking' element here is the sheer volume discovered,
Climate 'tech fixes' urged for Arctic methane
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-17400804
By Richard Black
Environment correspondent, BBC News
The original idea called for cloud-whitening ships - but it could be done from land
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An eminent UK engineer is suggesting building cloud-whitening towers in the Faroe Islands as a "technical fix" for warming across the Arctic.
Scientists told UK MPs this week that the possibility of a major methane release triggered by melting Arctic ice constitutes a "planetary emergency".
The Arctic could be sea-ice free each September within a few years.
Wave energy pioneer Stephen Salter has shown that pumping seawater sprays into the atmosphere could cool the planet.
The Edinburgh University academic has previously suggested whitening clouds using specially-built ships.
At a meeting in Westminster organised by the Arctic Methane Emergency Group (Ameg), Prof Salter told MPs that the situation in the Arctic was so serious that ships might take too long.
"I don't think there's time to do ships for the Arctic now," he said.
"We'd need a bit of land, in clean air and the right distance north... where you can cool water flowing into the Arctic."
Continue reading the main story
“
Start Quote
Everybody working in geo-engineering hopes it won't be needed - but we fear it will be”
Stephen Salter
Edinburgh University
Favoured locations would be the Faroes and islands in the Bering Strait, he said.
Towers would be constructed, simplified versions of what has been planned for ships.
In summer, seawater would be pumped up to the top using some kind of renewable energy, and out through the nozzles that are now being developed at Edinburgh University, which achieve incredibly fine droplet size.
In an idea first proposed by US physicist John Latham, the fine droplets of seawater provide nuclei around which water vapour can condense.
This makes the average droplet size in the clouds smaller, meaning they appear whiter and reflect more of the Sun's incoming energy back into space, cooling the Earth.
On melting ice
The area of Arctic Ocean covered by ice each summer has declined significantly over the last few decades as air and sea temperatures have risen.
For each of the last four years, the September minimum has seen about two-thirds of the average cover for the years 1979-2000, which is used a baseline. The extent covered at other times of the year has also been shrinking.
What more concerns some scientists is the falling volume of ice.
Analysis from the University of Washington, in Seattle, using ice thickness data from submarines and satellites, suggests that Septembers could be ice-free within just a few years.
Data for September suggests the Arctic Ocean could be free of sea ice in a few years
"In 2007, the water [off northern Siberia] warmed up to about 5C (41F) in summer, and this extends down to the sea bed, melting the offshore permafrost," said Peter Wadhams, professor of ocean physics at Cambridge University.
Among the issues this raises is whether the ice-free conditions will quicken release of methane currently trapped in the sea bed, especially in the shallow waters along the northern coast of Siberia, Canada and Alaska.
Methane is a much more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, though it does not last as long in the atmosphere.
Dramatic methane release would bring major impacts to Arctic indigenous peoples
Several teams of scientists trying to measure how much methane is actually being released have reported seeing vast bubbles coming up through the water - although analysing how much this matters is complicated by the absence of similar measurements from previous decades.
Nevertheless, Prof Wadhams told MPs, the release could be expected to get stronger over time.
"With 'business-as-usual' greenhouse gas emissions, we might have warming of 9-10C in the Arctic.
"That will cement in place the ice-free nature of the Arctic Ocean - it will release methane from offshore, and a lot of the methane on land as well."
This would - in turn - exacerbate warming, across the Arctic and the rest of the world.
Abrupt methane releases from frozen regions may have played a major role in two events, 55 and 251 million years ago, that extinguished much of the life then on Earth.
Meteorologist Lord (Julian) Hunt, who chaired the meeting of the All Party Parliamentary Group on Climate Change, clarified that an abrupt methane release from the current warming was not inevitable, describing that as "an issue for scientific debate".
But he also said that some in the scientific community had been reluctant to discuss the possibility.
"There is quite a lot of suppression and non-discussion of issues that are difficult, and one of those is in fact methane," he said, recalling a reluctance on the part of at least one senior scientists involved in the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment to discuss the impact that a methane release might have.
Reluctant solutions
The field of implementing technical climate fixes, or geo-engineering, is full of controversy, and even those involved in researching the issue see it as a last-ditch option, a lot less desirable than constraining greenhouse gas emissions.
Continue reading the main story
Climate change glossary
Select a term to learn more:
Adaptation
Adaptation
Action that helps cope with the effects of climate change - for example construction of barriers to protect against rising sea levels, or conversion to crops capable of surviving high temperatures and drought.
Glossary in full
"Everybody working in geo-engineering hopes it won't be needed - but we fear it will be," said Prof Salter.
Adding to the controversy is that some of the techniques proposed could do more harm than good.
The idea of putting dust particles into the stratosphere to reflect sunlight, mimicking the cooling effect of volcanic eruptions, would in fact be disastrous for the Arctic, said Prof Salter, with models showing it would increase temperatures at the pole by perhaps 10C.
And last year, the cloud-whitening idea was also criticised by scientists who calculated that using the wrong droplet size could lead to warming - though Prof Salter says this can be eliminated through experimentation.
He has not so far embarked on a full costing of the land-based towers, but suggests £200,000 as a ballpark figure.
Depending on the size and location, Prof Salter said that in the order of 100 towers would be needed to counteract Arctic warming.
However, no funding is currently on the table for cloud-whitening. A proposal to build a prototype ship for about £20m found no takers, and currently development work is limited to the lab.
Mythopoeika said:If methane is rising to the surface, I don't know why we aren't harvesting it on a large scale. It seems to me that mining clathrates would be a lot easier than drilling for gas.
In fact, if it was mined on a big enough scale, natural gas could be used as a relatively green alternative to oil, for the purposes of producing fuel for vehicles.
If there was you can be sure this government would tax the hell out of it.ramonmercado said:Good point. anyone know if there is a method of harvesting it available?
There was a picture to go with that story.rynner2 said:Arctic melt releasing ancient methane
By Richard Black, Environment correspondent, BBC News
Scientists have identified thousands of sites in the Arctic where methane that has been stored for many millennia is bubbling into the atmosphere.
The methane has been trapped by ice, but is able to escape as the ice melts.
...
"The Arctic is the fastest warming region on the planet, and has many methane sources that will increase as the temperature rises," commented Prof Euan Nisbet from Royal Holloway, University of London, who is also involved in Arctic methane research.
"This is yet another serious concern: the warming will feed the warming."
How serious and how immediate a threat this feedback mechanism presents is a controversial area, with some scientists believing that the impacts will not be seen for many decades, and others pointing out the possibility of a rapid release that could swiftly accelerate global warming.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-18120093
More, including the full links, references and comments, at the site.http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2012/01/an-arctic-methane-worst-case-scenario/
An Arctic methane worst-case scenario
RealClimate.org. david @ 7 January 2012
Let’s suppose that the Arctic started to degas methane 100 times faster than it is today. I just made that number up trying to come up with a blow-the-doors-off surprise, something like the ozone hole. We ran the numbers to get an idea of how the climate impact of an Arctic Methane Nasty Surprise would stack up to that from Business-as-Usual rising CO2
Walter et al (2007) says that Arctic lakes are 10% of natural global emissions, or about 5% of total emissions. I believe that was considered to be remarkably high at the time but let’s take it as a given, and representing the Arctic as a whole. If the number of lakes or their bubbling intensity suddenly increased by a factor of 100, and it persisted this way for 100 years, it would come to about 200 Gton of carbon emission, which is on the same scale as our entire fossil fuel emission so far (300 Gton C), or roughly the amount of traditional reserves of natural gas (although I’m not sure where estimates are since fracking) or petroleum. It would be a whopper of a surprise.
Scaling Walter’s Arctic lake emission rates up by a factor of 100 would increase the overall emission rate, natural and anthropogenic, by about a factor of 5 from where it is today. The weak leverage is because the high latitudes are a small source today relative to tropical wetlands and anthropogenic sources, so they have to grow a lot before they make much difference to the sum of all sources.
The steady-state methane concentration in the air scales nearly linearly with the emission rate. Actually, the concentration goes up somewhat faster than a constant times the emission rate, because the lifetime in the atmosphere gets longer (IPCC TAR). Let’s err on the side of flamboyance (great word in this context) and say the concentration of methane in the air goes up by a factor of 10 for the duration of the extra methane emission (meaning that the lifetime doubles).
Using the modtran model on line I get a radiative forcing from 10 * atmospheric methane of 3.4 Watts/m2 (the difference in the instantaneous IR flux out, labeled Iout, between cases with and without 10x methane). Using the TAR estimates of radiative forcing gives 2.7 Watts/m2.
But methane is a reactive gas and its presence leads to other greenhouse forcings, like the water vapor it decomposes into. Hansen estimates the “efficacy” of methane radiative forcing to be 1.4 (Hansen et al, 2005, Shindell et al, 2009), so that puts us to 4 or even 5 Watts/m2.
This is about twice the radiative forcing today from all anthropogenic greenhouse gases today, or (again according to Modtran) it would translate to an equivalent CO2 at today’s methane concentration of about 750 ppm. That seems significant, for sure.
Or, trying to “correct” for the different lifetimes of the gases using Global Warming Potentials, over a 100-year time horizon (which still way under-represents the lifetime of the CO2), you get that the methane would be equivalent to increasing CO2 to about 500 ppm, lower than 750 because the CO2 forcing lasts longer than the methane, which the GWP calculation tries in its own myopic way to account for.
But the methane worst case does not suddenly spell the extinction of human life on Earth. It does not lead to a runaway greenhouse. The worst-case methane scenario stands comparable to what CO2 can do. What CO2 will do, under business-as-usual, not in a wild blow-the-doors-off unpleasant surprise, but just in the absence of any pleasant surprises (like emission controls). At worst comparable to CO2 except that CO2 lasts essentially forever.
...
rynner2 said:Arctic melt releasing ancient methane
By Richard Black, Environment correspondent, BBC News
"The Arctic is the fastest warming region on the planet, and has many methane sources that will increase as the temperature rises," commented Prof Euan Nisbet from Royal Holloway, University of London, who is also involved in Arctic methane research.
"This is yet another serious concern: the warming will feed the warming."
How serious and how immediate a threat this feedback mechanism presents is a controversial area, with some scientists believing that the impacts will not be seen for many decades, and others pointing out the possibility of a rapid release that could swiftly accelerate global warming.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-18120093
Cthlatrates or however they are spelled. People do talk about methane, as in the potential melting of subsea methane ice causing massive amounts of methane to be released.Add to that the effect of methane, which has more effect than CO2. Nobody ever seems to mention methane's role in climate.
Yes...there is talk...but no 'methane tax'! Not that I want to pay a methane tax!Cthlatrates or however they are spelled. People do talk about methane, as in the potential melting of subsea methane ice causing massive amounts of methane to be released.
Also cow farts, yes, people do talk about cow farts methane contribution, and there is research going on into making cows less farty. [Farty being the technical term ]
Yes...there is talk...but no 'methane tax'!