Predictions for 2007

[Mighty_Emperor]

Dire predictions 2007:

www.astrococktail.com/news.html

 

[Anonymous]

This has got off to a really early start :shock:

I am still working on my 2007 list. Done rather well so far for 2006 so for 2007 I am trying to be a little more specific.

Now excuse me while I polish my crystal ball and get my wand out.





Pervert!
I happen to possess both above mystical props/items.

 

[Anonymous]

OK
Having done rather well for 2006 I have decided to make things a little more specific for 2007 by including some specific dates and having fewer total predictions to bypass the 'make enough predictions and some will come true' point of view.

I have omitted the Celeb deaths this time as I seem rather slack with those.


Right! Here we go. My target is 1 (just one) correct by this time next year. Anything more than that is a bonus.


Chriswsm’s Predictions for 2007

Early in 2007 (before end of Feb) either a celeb or someone of importance will suffer a public injury of their left ankle.

There will be a mysterious explosion of great magnitude (megaton+). Many nations will be named in the conspiracy theories that follow including Iran, Israel, North Korea, USA, and Russia. Uncertain of date.

Large earthquake Wednesday November 28th 2007

April Fools Day Train Murder

Between 7th and 10th April there will be dark clouds and heavy rain, which will lead to damage and relief/rescue efforts.

During mid May a celebrity will suffer a very bad reaction to a bite or sting of some sort. This will either kill or it will be a very close call.

10th July will be a day of fear.

January will show a single-decker bus or minibus fire. The burnt out wreck (black and green) will feature in the news.

March shows a transplant patient in the news due to rejection issues.

Between the end of spring and midnight on midsummer’s day there will be an arrest of a man for a horrible and high profile crime.
He will appear to be in his 40s (although may be older and deliberately takes steps to hide his age or change his appearance). He will have some form of title such as Doctor, councillor, MP, Captain, D.I., Sir, Reverend, Lord… and the like.


Polish Political Problems (all the P’s)

Missing children will turn up after a few days dirty and hungry and somewhat distressed.

Mid May 2007 Tony Blair will become very ill.

Sheep cause trouble on the motorway in the UK and this story is in the evening news programmes.

Tuesday 7th August Fear the chicken (food poisoning perhaps)

Disaster Friday 24th August 2007 (afternoon).

Newspaper Headlines 7th December 2007 read “the end of the world is nigh!” although this is likely to be a micky taking headline.

In June the story of the radioactive poisonings will resurface due to new information.

There will be a very busy arsonist in Wales.

Steorn’s energy claims will be proved true however there will be some drawbacks (this could be wishful thinking on my part)

Early February will show a disaster at a sporting event with more than one death.

The French will suffer financially due to events within another nation.

James Bond and Harry Potter will suffer some problems with their productions.


That is all. I might add some during the year in seperate posts. Wish me luck as I put my crystal ball away

 

[Pietro_Mercurios]

Much will be made of an unsuccessul bid to stop, the often postponed, Divine Strake, 'deep level, hardened site, bunker buster' tests in the Nevada Desert, which involve detonating 700 tons of ammonium nitrate and fuel oil (the equivalent of 500+ tons of TNT), underground, to simulate the use of low yield, tactical nuclear bunker busters.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/ops/divine-strake.htm

News of the resulting dust cloud of radioactive debris, from previous nuclear tests, stirred up and released by the explosion, will reach the media and cause an outcry. People will become confused as to the nature of the Divine Strake, thinking that it represents either a real conventional sub-nuclear weapon (although such a weapon would be far too large to be carried by anything except a giant zepplin and far too fragile to penetrate the earth to the depth required), or the simulation of the dropping of a series of closely grouped conventional bunker busters, intended to flood underground tunnel complexes with and inferno of burning gasses.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/ops/divine-strake4.htm

This confusion will continue until a series of massive explosions in Iran and the resulting clouds of radioactive dust, announce to the World that either the US, or Israel, or both, have dropped massive 'deep level, hardened site, bunker busters' on the hidden sites of Iran's secret nuclear weapons programme.

Confusion will reign.

 

[wembley8]

...which involve detonating 700 tons of ammonium nitrate and fuel oil (the equivalent of 500+ tons of TNT), underground, to simulate the use of low yield, tactical nuclear bunker busters....nuclear tests, stirred up and released by the explosion, will reach the media and cause an outcry.

There will be no radioactivity from Divine Strake because no radioactive material is involved - as you quoted yourself, it's just good old-fashioned ANFO like the IRA used to use.

The point is that it will validate the computer models used for large underground (for example, but not necessarily, nuclear) explosions.

 

[Anonymous]

Add on....

At some point this year (not sure when) an American politician will be abducted.

I am pretty certain its American. :?

 

[Pietro_Mercurios]

...which involve detonating 700 tons of ammonium nitrate and fuel oil (the equivalent of 500+ tons of TNT), underground, to simulate the use of low yield, tactical nuclear bunker busters....nuclear tests, stirred up and released by the explosion, will reach the media and cause an outcry.

There will be no radioactivity from Divine Strake because no radioactive material is involved - as you quoted yourself, it's just good old-fashioned ANFO like the IRA used to use.

The point is that it will validate the computer models used for large underground (for example, but not necessarily, nuclear) explosions.

Why did you omit this relevant passage?

... News of the resulting dust cloud of radioactive debris, from previous nuclear tests, stirred up and released by the explosion ...

Even the relevant Authorities admit that radioactive material, already in the ground from previous tests, will be released, although they claim that amounts will be small.

http://www.sltrib.com/ci_4915638

Stop the bomb: Divine Strake's threat is real
[Salt Lake] Tribune Editorial. Article Last Updated: 12/28/2006

When the federal government promises residents who live downwind from a planned explosion at the Nevada Test Site that they are in no danger, the reassurances have a hollow resonance.

Such promises are eerily familiar to victims of 1950s nuclear testing and their families who have lived with the deadly effects of the radioactive dust scattered over the West by the above-ground blasts.

Now the Pentagon expects downwinders to buy similar not-to-worry claims about Divine Strake, a non-nuclear chemical blast planned for the spring that would be nearly 50 times larger than the biggest known conventional weapon in the U.S. arsenal.

Excuse our scepticism.

First came the ludicrous official statement that radioactive dust remaining from the Cold War-era nuclear testing (that initially had been claimed to be non-existent) would somehow remain within the boundaries of the test site. Now the Pentagon says a new study has shown that, yes, the contaminated dust could be blown sky-high by the enormous explosion and deliver a dose of radioactivity to the off-site public.

But wait. The Pentagon promises that exposure to residents of even the nearest town, 12 miles away, would not be "significant." The report did not gauge possible exposure farther away, even though studies of the old nuclear tests have shown that some Westerners hundreds of miles from the test site became sick and died from the fallout.

Granted, this non-nuclear test likely would be less dangerous than its nuclear predecessors, but any danger to civilians is absolutely unacceptable.

The Pentagon says it needs the test results to help develop computer models to simulate the damage to underground targets that would be inflicted by bunker-buster bombs. We are concerned that this is double-talk to disguise plans for a new generation of smaller nuclear weapons, now banned by Congress. Such a covert escalation of the nuclear arms race would not only be illegal, but likely would encourage Iran and other countries to speed developent of their own nuclear weapons.

Utahns and Nevadans have a chance in upcoming hearings to tell the Pentagon what they think of this reckless idea. They should speak plainly. Because the only sure way to prevent Divine Strake from raining radioactive debris on civilians is to junk the whole project, permanently.

Like I said, plenty of possiblity for the escape of radioactivity, where it comes for is another matter.

Hey! And get your own god damn prediction!

For instance. Since you know so much about nuclear matters, why don't you make a prediction about what's going to happen to all those nuclear power stations built on coastlines, now sea levels are set to rise. Give us all a wry smile.

 

[Peripart]

I forecast that David and Victoria Beckham will become Scientologists by the end of the year. Not so much a prediction, perhaps, as a depressing inevitability, once they move in next to best mates Tom & Katie.

 

[maureenmac1]

Actually, I dreampt the other night about a small asteroid hitting a town in the UK, causing a small mushroom cloud and destroying a chunk or somewhere beginning with "W"... Can't remember the name tho

Wick, maybe?

 

[rantaclaws]

If the rest of the winter in the UK is as mild as it has been, many insects and other small animals may not be killed off as they usually would be, so I predict (has someone already said this?)

A plague of vermin!

 

[GNC]

I've already seen a few insects flitting about throughout December and January, so you might be right.

 

[Pete Younger]

I predict there will be a drop in temperature from tomorrow and all the biting critters will be terminated.

 

[rynner2]

I predict there will be a drop in temperature from tomorrow and all the biting critters will be terminated.

funnily enough, the met office has been predicting a cold spell too...

 

[Semyaz]

I predict there will be a drop in temperature from tomorrow and all the biting critters will be terminated.

funnily enough, the met office has been predicting a cold spell too...

So its a conspiracy...!! :shock:

 

[Bigphoot2]

Just a hunch based on a very vivid dream I had the other night: Animal experts will be amazed at a previously unknown aspect of big cat behaviour (most likely lions) that was discovered using night vision cameras.

 

[feen5]

Just a hunch based on a very vivid dream I had the other night: Animal experts will be amazed at a previously unknown aspect of big cat behaviour (most likely lions) that was discovered using night vision cameras.

Didn't they discover something last year already. Their is a pride of lions (i'm sorry i cannot remember the exact location but i think its Namibia/South Sfrica) that actively hunt Elephants. This beheviour was unknown before in Lions. Perhaps you have seen this report somewhere before and its subconciously incorporated into your dream?

 

[Bigphoot2]

Good point, I don't remember the story but as you say it may be lurking in the dark, depths of my mind.

So we'll just have to wait and see if some other aspect of big cat behaviour is discovered.

 

[Ringo]

Madonna does another 'Waynetta' and adopts another child,

I think there may be a high-profile kidnapping to hit the news.

You're doing pretty well so far, not sure of the Grand National colours.

 

[Anonymous]

Before the year is out the National Lotto will report that they have made an error involving a draw or a series of draws. This will lead to corrections, refunds and an investigation. Oh! and rather a lot of bad press.

 

[ramonmercado]

I think this fits in here.

Uncertainty

The perils of prediction
May 31st 2007
From The Economist print edition


“IT'S tough to make predictions, especially about the future,” said that great baseball-playing philosopher, Yogi Berra. And yet we continue to try, churning out forecasts on everything from the price of oil to the next civil war. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a professor of the sciences of uncertainty (who gave us “known unknowns”), has no time for the “charlatans” who think they can map the future. Forget the important things: we can't even get it right when estimating the cost of a building—witness the massively over-budget Sydney Opera House or the new Wembley Stadium.

The problem is that almost all forecasters work within the parameters of the Gaussian bell curve, which ignores large deviations and thus fails to take account of “Black Swans”. Mr Taleb defines a Black Swan as an event that is unexpected, has an extreme impact and is made to seem predictable by explanations concocted afterwards. It can be both positive and negative. Examples include the September 11th 2001 attacks and the rise of the internet. Smaller shocks, such as novels and pop acts whose popularity explodes thanks to word of mouth, can also be Black Swans.

Humans are bad at factoring in the possibility of randomness and uncertainty. We forget about unpredictability when it is our turn to predict, and overestimate our own knowledge. When researchers asked a group of students to choose a range for the number of lovers Catherine the Great had had, wide enough to ensure that they had a 98% chance of being right, a staggering 45% of them got it wrong.

Why didn't they guarantee being correct by picking a range of none to ten thousand? After all, there were no prizes for keeping the range tight. The answer is that humans have an uncontrollable urge to be precise, for better or (all too often) worse. That is a fine quality in a watch-repair man or a brain surgeon, but counter-productive when dealing with uncertainty.

Mr Taleb cut his philosophical teeth in the basement of his family home in Lebanon during the long civil war there (another Black Swan), devouring books as mortars flew overhead. By the time he began work as a financial-market “quant” in the 1980s, he had already become convinced that the academic mainstream was looking at probability the wrong way. He remains a maverick, promoting the work of obscure thinkers and attacking Nobel laureates. All he is trying to do, he says, is make the world see how much there is that can't be seen.

Why, he asks, do we take absence of proof to be proof of absence? Why do we base the study of chance on the world of games? Casinos, after all, have rules that preclude the truly shocking. And why do we attach such importance to statistics when they tell us so little about what is to come? A single set of data can lead you down two very different paths. More maddeningly still, when faced with a Black Swan we often grossly underestimate or overestimate its significance. Take technology. The founder of IBM predicted that the world would need no more than a handful of computers, and nobody saw that the laser would be used to mend retinas.

Nor do we learn the right lessons from such eruptions. Mr Taleb argues convincingly that the spectacular collapse in 1998 of Long-Term Capital Management was caused by the inability of the hedge fund's managers to see a world that lay outside their flawed models. And yet those models are still widely used today. This is ridiculous but not surprising. Business is stuffed full of bluffers, he argues, and successful companies and financial institutions owe as much to chance as to skill.

That is a little unfair. Many blockbuster products have their roots in bright ideas, rigorous research and canny marketing, rather than luck. And corporate “scenario planners” are better than they used to be at thinking about Black Swan-type events. Still, this is a small quibble about a deeply intelligent, provocative book. Deftly weaving meditation with hard-edged analysis, Mr Taleb succeeds in bringing sceptical empiricism to the masses.

Do not expect clear answers. He suspects that crises will be fewer in number but more severe in future. And he suggests concentrating on the consequences of Black Swans, which can be known, rather than on the probability that they will occur, which can't (think of earthquakes). But he never makes professional predictions because it is better to be “broadly right rather than precisely wrong”.

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
By Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Random House; 400 pages; $26.95.

Allen Lane; £20

http://www.economist.com/books/displays ... id=9253918

 

[rynner2]

Today a prediction crops up in the Times financial section that seems to blithely ignore Black Swans:

"blah blah blah blah

Putting these observations together points to a clear conclusion. In March 2000, when stock market prices on Wall Street were last at today’s levels, a crash was a mathematical certainty – as this column, along with many others, pointed out. Today one can say with almost equal confidence that the mathematical conditions simply do not exist for a stock market collapse."
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/b ... 878747.ece

Now read again the piece I posted yesterday in "Global Warming.."
http://www.forteantimes.com/forum/viewt ... 269#715269

"Global warming is accelerating three times more quickly than feared, a series of startling, authoritative studies has revealed.

They have found that emissions of carbon dioxide have been rising at thrice the rate in the 1990s. The Arctic ice cap is melting three times as fast - and the seas are rising twice as rapidly - as had been predicted."
http://environment.independent.co.uk/cl ... 609305.ece

How's that for a humungous Black Swan? The chaos caused by such rapid climate and sea level changes (as discussed on the afore-mentioned thread) could easily drop a spanner in the financial works, methinks (though maybe not this year).

 

[Anonymous]

Sheep cause trouble on the motorway in the UK and this story is in the evening news programmes.

One of my team members pointed this out to me (some of them read this forum and most read my FT). Apparantly it was mentioned on the news last week.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/hamp ... 285370.stm

A menagerie of animals caused major disruption to traffic after a trailer box overturned on a motorway.
Four goats, three sheep, four chickens, one pony, two ducks, one rabbit, two geese and two pigs had to be rescued after the crash on the M3 in Hampshire.

Sheep on the motorway Shame I missed the rest of the farm.

 

[OldTimeRadio]

This coming Christmas will be Robert Mugabe's last as President of Zimbabwe - provided he makes it until Christmas.

 

[Timble2]

This coming Christmas will be Robert Mugabe's last as President of Zimbabwe - provided he makes it until Christmas.

Maybe he'll get the same Christmas present that Nicolae Ceausescu got in 1989...

 

[akaWiintermoon]

A menagerie of animals caused major disruption to traffic after a trailer box overturned on a motorway.
Four goats, three sheep, four chickens, one pony, two ducks, one rabbit, two geese and two pigs had to be rescued after the crash on the M3 in Hampshire.

Sheep on the motorway Shame I missed the rest of the farm.

I saw that report in our local paper. My mum also saw them in person last Saturday at a festival in the city. All animals are fine and well, and apparently the piglette was especially enjoying a belly rub.

Anyway, I suppose this is the place to put it... Well, I'm going to become an auntie soon! (My brother and his girlfriend.) The baby was due last Friday, but hasn't been born YET. The Monday before last I said I reccon the baby would be born the following Wednesday, which would be today. I got a phone call at around seven to say the mother to be was experianncing contractions 20 minutes apart!
Also from the moment I new of the pregnancy I predicted a boy. I'll let you know.

 

[akaWiintermoon]

Well the contractions started on Wednesday, so do I get a bonus point? lol My mum predicted Friday and....Yesterday via ceaserian I became the proud auntie of.....

A Niece!

Anyone seen the 'Acurate Inacuracys' thread?

 

[finley909]

Couldn't have guessed these...

I think there may be a high-profile kidnapping to hit the news.

I think parts of England may be hit by extreme flooding in Spring.

First time post here, been watching far too long without uttering a word, but seeing Quixote's predictions come true has broken my silence!

High Profile kidnapping - Madeline McCann
Extreme flooding - Wrong season there, but spot on again.

:shock:

 

[faith2faith]

Here are some predictions I've heard on Coast to Coast AM:

Something big will go down in November 2007 -- maybe even several things at once. It could be a total stock market/economic crash in the U.S. (with the subprime crisis getting worse, it wouldn't surprise me). It could also be that, after postponing their plans for war with Iran several times already, the Bush admin is finally going for the Iranians' throats.

Dick Cheney will perish of another heart attack (and, IMO, probably will be replaced by another high-profile neocon who is just as bad).

George W. Bush will not live out the rest of his office term (I don't know if that means he dies or will be impeached).

A major hurricane is going to hit the East Coast, hitting first in North Carolina and traveling up from there.

It's interesting because according to the Mayan Calendar, at the end of November starts the "Fifth Night," historically a very violent and dark time for humanity. In other eras, the "Fifth Night" was when Jesus was crucified, when entire empires (Greek empire, e.g.) collapsed, and so forth. So I really think we've got it coming.

I recently read on prisonplanet.com that some wacky neocons are now calling for Bush to declare himself "Lifetime President" and basically become a dictator, without being hindered by Congress or the Constitution. The basics have already been layed out, since Bush -- via gazillions of Executive Orders -- has recently given himself more power than any Prez of the US ever had. Another 9/11 -- and many, even some politicians, believe that there will be one (staged again, of course) -- and we might find ourselves under martial law, with armed police and military patroling our streets. It would be quite easy in that case to "postpone" the 2008 elections... maybe indefinitely.

 

[TheQuixote]

Re: Couldn't have guessed these...

I think there may be a high-profile kidnapping to hit the news.

I think parts of England may be hit by extreme flooding in Spring.

First time post here, been watching far too long without uttering a word, but seeing Quixote's predictions come true has broken my silence!

High Profile kidnapping - Madeline McCann
Extreme flooding - Wrong season there, but spot on again.

:shock:

They do look like hits but if I'm being honest, they're very vague. I was going on what is usually in the news - the flooding, well, I was going on from last year's floods in the UK. It's been usual for the past few years that we'll be hit by them. Plus with the warm winter that we'd had, I assumed we'd be in for some extreme weather

As for the kidnap 'prediction', I don't know, I was actually thinking of the sub-continent or Middle East when I wrote that down as again, kidnaps in those areas are pretty much a certainty too (the news just in is that a German national has been kidnapped in Afghanistan).

 

[jefflovestone]

Re: Couldn't have guessed these...

They do look like hits but if I'm being honest, they're very vague. I was going on what is usually in the news - the flooding, well, I was going on from last year's floods in the UK. It's been usual for the past few years that we'll be hit by them. Plus with the warm winter that we'd had, I assumed we'd be in for some extreme weather

As for the kidnap 'prediction', I don't know, I was actually thinking of the sub-continent or Middle East when I wrote that down as again, kidnaps in those areas are pretty much a certainty too (the news just in is that a German national has been kidnapped in Afghanistan).

You're just saying all this so you don't get burned at the stake! I have my eye on you, young Quixote.

[/Matthew Hopkins]